U.S. Gulf/Tampa:
Tampa ammonia for July was $960/mt CFR, down from June’s $1,000 mt/CFR. With more ammonia plants going offline in Europe due to high natural gas prices, most are predicting an uptick for Tampa in August.
Sources predict that Europe will source product from the U.S. and Trinidad to make up for any shortfalls, soaking up tons that might have gone to Tampa.
Eastern Cornbelt:
Ammonia fill pricing in the Eastern Cornbelt remained at $950/st FOB terminals in Illinois, Indiana, and Ohio for 3Q delivery. Order books were still reportedly open during the week.
Western Cornbelt:
Ammonia fill offers in the Western Cornbelt remained in a broad range at $825-$950/st FOB, with the low reported at Hoag, Neb., and the high at Palmyra, Mo.
Southern Plains:
Ammonia pricing for 3Q delivery remained posted at $805-$825/st FOB production points in Oklahoma and Kansas, but sources said prices were netting back to as low as $700/st FOB based on delivered offers into the Cornbelt. Prompt truck offers out of Beaumont, Texas, were unchanged at $900/st FOB, but sources said an adjustment is likely.
South Central:
The truck market for ammonia reportedly remained at $900-$910/st FOB Gulf Coast terminals in the region, with the low confirmed at Beaumont, Texas. No truck prices were reportedly being offered at El Dorado, Ark., Cherokee, Ala., or Midway, Tenn.
Northwest Europe:
A Fertiglobe ammonia sale into Southern Europe at $1,120/mt C&F is an indication that even with the Gazprom notice of a force majeure against certain European buyers, the price of ammonia is not on an automatic upward track. The price reflects a slight softening from previous weeks.
Sources reported that under the current estimated spot gas price, the production cost for a ton of ammonia should be $2,000/mt. However, once the average price of gas over the past month or so is considered, that cost drops to $1,200-$1,300/mt. So far, as one source noted, no one is paying up at either level.
Traders point out that the European price is being kept in check because buyers are able to secure tons from non-traditional sources outside the region. Suppliers from Indonesia to Trinidad report enough tons on hand to take care of their regular business and the occasional demand for tons from European buyers. The netbacks are low enough that once freight is added in, the landed price, while still higher than the past, does not continually get higher.
Middle East:
Production appears to be running well, with a growing trend to building a slight surplus. The extra material on the supply side is not large enough to move prices down, said one trader. So far, no spot business has been reported as producers take care of their contracts.
Iranian exports for the first half of the year were reported at 241,000 mt by Trade Data Monitor. This is down about 24% from the 316,000 mt exported during the same period in 2021. The main buyer was India, taking 206,000 mt.
Second-quarter exports were also down compared to the previous year. Trade Data Monitor reported that 125,000 mt was shipped out for April-June 2022 compared to 191,000 mt during the same period last year.June 2022 exports were reported at 44,000 mt, compared to 65,000 mt from June 2021.
South Korea:
January-June ammonia imports this year were reported at 698,000 mt by Trade Data Monitor. This reflects a 4.5% drop from the 731,000 mt received during the first half of 2021. The main suppliers were Indonesia with 320,000 mt and Saudi Arabia with 285,000 mt.
Second-quarter 2022 imports were also down. April-June imports were reported at 66,000 mt, a 54% drop from the 142,000 mt imported during the same period in 2021. June 2022 imports, on the other hand, were up dramatically at 45,000 mt against June 2021 imports of 28,000 mt. The material in June 2022 came almost equally from Saudi Arabia and Indonesia, with each sending about 22,000 mt.
Indonesia:
Exports of ammonia from Indonesia for January-May 2022 were reported at 828,000 mt by Trade Data Monitor. This is a marginal increase from the 826,000 mt sent out during the same period of 2021. The top two customers were regional buyers South Korea with 267,000 mt, and Japan with 106,000 mt.
May 2022 exports were reported at 176,000 mt, up about a third from the 131,000 mt shipped out during May 2021. South Korea took 62,000 mt, China took 22,000 mt, and Japan bought 20,000 mt, accounting for 59% of Indonesian exports in May 2022.