U.S. Gulf/Tampa:
Continued reports of idled European ammonia capacity add to the pressure for another price increase for Tampa ammonia in September. Tampa ammonia prices were $1,100/mt CFR in August, up from July’s $960/mt CFR.
Eastern Cornbelt:
A new round of fall prepay offers for ammonia was reported at $1,025-$1,035/st FOB in Illinois and Indiana, up from the prior week’s $985/st FOB prepay level. Earlier prompt pricing at the $950/st FOB mark in the Eastern Cornbelt is reportedly no longer being offered.
Ammonia pricing FOB Lima, Ohio, was pegged at $1,000/st for prompt and $1,050/st for prepay, up from $985/st FOB for both in the previous week.
Western Cornbelt:
Prompt and prepay ammonia offers were reported at $900-$950/st FOB in the Western Cornbelt, depending on location, with the low reported in Iowa and Nebraska and the high at Palmyra, Mo. Sources also confirmed delivered ammonia prepay pricing in the $925-$980/st range in the region during the week.
Southern Plains
In the Southern Plains, ammonia pricing was reported at $850/st FOB Woodward, Okla., for prompt tons and $900/st FOB Verdigris, Okla., for prompt or prepay, up from the prior week’s $875/st FOB level at Verdigris. New truck pricing FOB Gulf Coast terminals had reportedly firmed to $1,050/st FOB following the increase in Tampa pricing for August.
Northern Plains:
Ammonia prices were up slightly in the Northern Plains in the wake of recent fall prepay offers. Prepay programs were confirmed at $920-$940/st FOB, depending on location, and $940-$950/st DEL in North Dakota and Minnesota. Fill tons were still reportedly on the table at $910/st FOB Velva, N.D., and $850/st DEL in North Dakota.
Southeast Asia:
Sources reported the Southeast Asia market is softening along with the global economy. Reportedly, buyers are taking only what is required under their contracts and are even asking suppliers to delay – if possible – some cargoes.
In addition to major buyers in South Korea and Taiwan pulling back on their demand, sources said small lots of Chinese ammonia are being offered into the market. Sources said the slowdown in the Chinese economy and industrial output is making the ammonia available. The Chinese material is said to be offered at a discount to move it more quickly.
In Indonesia, the Kaltim V facility is expected to remain down for the rest of the year. Sources said the explosion that took place in late July damaged the ability to produce ammonia and urea. Sources said the delay may extend into the next year, depending on availability of material necessary for the repairs.
Sources reported the market in Southeast Asia is so weak that even with the loss of Kaltim V, the company has some spot cargoes available for sale.
India:
Sources reported some small spot deals by CIL and IFFCO at $825-$850/mt CFR. The drop in the landed spot price is a result of a softer Southeast Asia market, some cheap Chinese ammonia entering the market, and a plentiful supply from the Arab Gulf.
India imported 832,000 mt of ammonia in the first five months of this year, according to Trade Data Monitor, down 10% from the 922,000 mt imported during the same period in 2021.
May imports were reported at 182,000 mt, up slightly from the May 2021 imports of 172,000 mt. The main supplier in May 2022 was Saudi Arabia with 63,000 mt, accounting for one-third of ammonia imports that month.
Thailand:
Ammonia imports in Thailand for the first half of the year were reported at 160,000 mt by Trade Data Monitor, down 23% from the 210,000 mt imported during the same period in 2021. Second-quarter 2022 imports were reported at 117,000 mt, up slightly from the 115,000 mt imported during April-June 2021.
June 2022 imports were down marginally, at 31,000 mt from the 32,000 mt imported during June 2021. Malaysia sent 17,000 mt for 54% of the June import market. The remaining 14,000 mt was purchased from Indonesia.
Brazil:
Ammonia imports in Brazil for January-July 2022 were reported at 271,000 mt by Trade Data Monitor, down about 30% from the 385,000 mt imported during the first seven months of 2021. The main supplier was Trinidad with 234,000 mt. Qatar and Argentina each sent 15,000 mt.
An additional 6,000 mt came from the U.S. This shipment was the first batch of ammonia sent to Brazil from the U.S. this year. During the whole of 2019 and 2020, the U.S. sent only 1 mt for each year. In all of 2018, Brazil received 13,000 mt from the U.S.
July 2022 imports were reported at 32,000 mt, down about half from the 63,000 mt received during July 2021. Trinidad supplied 25,000 mt, with 6,000 mt from the U.S. making up most of the balance.
Northwest Europe:
Imports of ammonia are holding down the price despite higher production costs in Europe. While larger buyers are looking at prices of $1,200-$1,250/mt C&F, some smaller lots have reportedly been sold at $1,300/mt C&F. Prices for September are expected to pick up, but will still be lower than if they were based on the European production cost.
Imports from Trinidad and the Arab Gulf have been holding down the Antwerp price, even as natural gas prices in Europe rise.
More Arab Gulf material is said to being offered into Europe because of declining demand in Southeast Asia. Reduced sales into Asia have made it easier for European buyers to negotiate deals for product that do not push up the price into Europe.
Middle East:
Sales of spot material at $900-$925/mt FOB are reported. Reportedly, the Saudis sold to Northwest Europe and Qatar to Bulgaria and Turkey at these levels.
Sources said producers are anxious to sell because their usual market in Southeast Asia is soft. Reportedly, buyers in Asia are asking for only the bare minimum required under their contracts. This leaves a lot of extra tons available for anxious European buyers looking to counter their own high production costs, and for OCP looking to substitute material for the loss of Black Sea material due to the war in Ukraine.
Reports of the extra tonnage available come as Ma’aden formally announced its #3 ammonia plant is entering its commercial production phase. The plant has been producing ammonia in fits and starts for a few months. The plant output is rated at 1.1 million mt/y.