U.S. Gulf/Tampa:
Tampa ammonia for September was concluded at $1,150/mt CFR, up $50/mt from August. Most sources had been expecting an increase as more and more European nitrogen plants went offline due to higher natural gas prices (see related story).
In the meantime, Nutrien confirmed that it has sold a 10,000 mt cargo to Europe from Trinidad for September loading at $1,290/mt CFR, within the recent range of $1,200-$1,300/mt CFR.
Eastern Cornbelt:
The ammonia market remained at $1,025-$1,030/st FOB in Illinois and $1,030-$1,035/st FOB in Indiana for prompt or prepay in late August. The market FOB Lima, Ohio, was steady as well at $1,025/st FOB for prompt and $1,050/st FOB for prepay.
Western Cornbelt:
The ammonia market was steady at $940-$950/st FOB Nebraska terminals and $955/st FOB Port Neal, Iowa, for prompt or prepay. The last confirmed ammonia offers at Palmyra, Mo., were quoted at the $950/st FOB level.
Northern Plains:
Ammonia prepay pricing was pegged at the $930-$955/st FOB level in the Northern Plains, with the high reported at Velva, N.D. No prompt offers were confirmed out of regional terminals in late August. Delivered ammonia pricing in North Dakota ranged from a low of $825-$850/st for prompt fill to a high of $950/st for fall prepay.
Northwest Europe:
Plants in Lithuania, Poland, and the UK all shut down in late August because of ever-rising natural gas prices. Sources had expected these actions, because no relief was in site on gas prices.
European users of ammonia have had arrangements to import ammonia for some time. Even as production costs exceeded $2,000/mt based on the spot natural gas price, the market in Antwerp remains in the $1,200s/mt C&F. The reason prices held was because of the availability of ammonia from other markets for import. Seeing an opportunity, some sellers were pushing for prices above $1,300/mt C&F, but getting no takers.
This week a new sale from Trinidad for 10,000 mt moved the price up to $1,290/mt C&F. Sources said this is indicative of the trend for prices. Finding lower-priced product will now be difficult.
Indonesia:
Ammonia for export is expected to remain in short supply as the ammonia/urea producers make arrangements for domestic ammonia to be diverted to the Kaltim V plant so urea production can restart.
An explosion in late July shut down ammonia and urea production, but did not directly affect the equipment at the urea plant. Because Kaltim V is the newest and most efficient urea producing plant in the country, apparently a decision was made to divert ammonia from the export spot market and from less efficient urea plants.
Sources said at the time of the explosion that the softness of the Southeast Asian market was exposed when the shutdown did not affect regional prices. The decision to divert some ammonia from export to urea production, likewise, seemed to have not created any anxiety from area buyers.
China:
Imports for January-July 2022 were reported at 155,000 mt by Trade Data Monitor, down about 70% from the 519,000 mt imported during the same period in 2021. The main supplier was Indonesia, sending 91,000 mt in the first seven months of the year. Saudi Arabia followed with 39,000 mt, and Malaysia with 18,000 mt.
Demand for ammonia has waned as exports of phosphates were limited by the government and as the overall industrial output in China slacked off. Sources said China fulfills the bulk of its ammonia needs from its own production, leaving fewer opportunities for imported product.
July 2022 imports were reported at 10,000 mt, with almost all the tonnage coming from Indonesia. This compares with 23,000 mt imported in July 2021.