U.S. Gulf/Tampa:
With another wave of ammonia plant closures in Europe due to higher natural gas prices, Tampa ammonia moved up $50/mt for September, to $1,150/mt CFR from the $1,100/mt CFR posted in August.
Sources said a new, higher Cornbelt range lifted the bottom for NOLA barges to $975/st FOB.
Eastern Cornbelt:
Ammonia prices were up significantly in the Eastern Cornbelt. After climbing to $1,170-$1,200/st FOB over the previous weekend, another increase on Aug. 31 took posted prices up to $1,250-$1,300/st FOB regional terminals, with the high reflecting new pricing from CF and the low for Koch offers. CVR’s East Dubuque, Ill., facility is reportedly down for a turnaround.
New ammonia postings in Indiana at midweek included $1,280/st FOB Mount Vernon and Terra Haute. Nutrien also raised its ammonia price FOB Lima, Ohio, firming to $1,250/st FOB for prompt or prepay, up from the previous week’s $1,025/st FOB for prompt and $1,050/st FOB for prepay.
Western Cornbelt:
Ammonia prices were on the rise in the Western Cornbelt. The range at the beginning of the week was reportedly $1,125/st FOB in Nebraska, $1,130/st FOB Port Neal, Iowa, and $1,140-$1,150/st FOB most other Iowa terminals. Prices firmed another $50-$75/st at midweek, however, depending on location. The Palmyra, Mo., market reportedly moved from $1,150/st up to $1,225/st FOB for prompt or prepay as the week progressed.
Ammonia prices also strengthened in the Northern Plains, with new delivered offers reported in a broad range at $1,050-$1,150/st in North Dakota, up significantly from the prior week’s $850-$950/st range.
Southern Plains:
After starting the week in the $950-$1,000/st FOB range, ammonia prices in the Southern Plains strengthened again at midweek, firming to $1,000-$1,200/st FOB, with the high confirmed at Verdigris, Okla., and the low at Woodward, Okla. The Borger, Texas, market was pegged at $1,025/st FOB.
No ammonia prices were being offered at Coffeyville, Kan., where the nitrogen plant was reportedly building inventories after restarting following a recent turnaround.
Sources continued to report little in the way of preplant application on winter wheat ground in the region. “It’s too dry to even think about planting,” said one Kansas source. “Some ammonia is being applied in traditional ammonia areas that have caught some showers, however.”
South Central:
Truck pricing for ammonia out of Gulf Coast terminals was pegged at $1,000-$1,080/st FOB, up from last week’s $1,000-$1,050/st FOB range, with the low confirmed at Beaumont, Texas. No offers were reported at El Dorado, Ark., Midway, Tenn., or Cherokee, Ala.
Northwest Europe:
Ammonia prices remain at $1,290/mt C&F, but sources said not for long. Upward pressure on the price is coming from the high production costs due to high natural gas prices in Europe – now pegged at $3,000/mt. A more moderating influence is coming from Trinidad, North Africa, and the Arab Gulf.
European companies are finding it is vastly cheaper to import product than produce it. The higher prices in Europe, combined with a softer Southeast Asia market, have Arab Gulf producers looking west. Their extra tonnage is helping keep prices in Antwerp from running wild.
Middle East:
Sources reported deals done at $1,075-$1,100/mt FOB. This price fits nicely with the Northwest Europe price of $1,290/mt C&F, and also with the $1,300/mt C&F price expected soon.
Producers are looking at the high natural gas prices in Europe, causing production costs that are out of line with any market. The sales into Europe are at higher rates than what the producers could achieve from their deals in Southeast Asia.
Iranian exports for January-July 2022 were reported at 281,000 mt by Trade Data Monitor, down 28% from the 358,000 mt exported during the same period in 2021. July 2022 exports of 39,000 mt were also down from the 42,000 mt shipped in July 2021. India was the main buyer of the July tonnage, taking 37,000 mt.
Black Sea:
The ammonia market from the Black Sea remained nonexistent. Sources said it is easier to load dry bulk vessels with grains and fertilizers for export than it is to ship a volatile product like ammonia.
The main hindrance to restarting ammonia exports, said one source, was that the ammonia pipeline from Russia into Ukraine runs through a heavily contested war zone. Until the southern portion of Ukraine is settled, sources said they do not expect to see ammonia coming out from the area.
Turkish imports for January-July 2022 were reported at 392,000 mt by Trade Data Monitor, down 21% from the 500,000 mt imported during the same period in 2021. Russia was the main supplier to Turkey, with 153,000 mt so far this year.
July 2022 imports were reported at 53,000 mt, down 19% from the 66,000 mt imported in July 2021. Saudi Arabia sent 25,000 mt and Russia sent 21,000 mt in July.
India:
Sources reported that Ma’aden/Saudi Arabia closed deals with a number of clients in India, but no prices were announced. Sources said the deals will be long-term contracts with pricing on a formula basis.
Some small spot deals were reported in India this week. More Chinese ammonia has been offered into the country at $850/mt CFR. Shipments of Middle East ammonia are also being offered, but at $900/mt CFR.
Reports of more Chinese product being offered into India do not square with first-half import figures released this week. January-June 2022 imports were reported at 1 million mt by Trade Data Monitor, down about 7% from the 1.1 million mt received during the first semester of 2021. Imported ammonia coming from China was reported at 22 mt. Saudi Arabia with 449,000 mt and Qatar with 195,000 mt dominated supplies in the first six months of the year.
Second-quarter 2022 imports were reported at 517,000 mt, up 10% from the 469,000 mt imported during the same period in 2021.
June 2022 imports were reported at 201,000 mt, up from the 194,000 mt imported in June 2021. Saudi Arabia with 99,000 mt, Indonesia with 33,000 mt, and Bahrain with 31,000 mt accounted for 80% of imports that month.
Southeast Asia:
The market remains depressed as manufacturers slow down their demand for ammonia. The combination of the lingering impact of COVID and the current high interest rates have reduced demand for many of the products produced in the area.
Sources said excess ammonia from Indonesia may soon end. Reportedly, ammonia is being diverted to the Kaltim V urea facility. This plant is the most efficient plant in Indonesia, so sources said it makes sense to divert ammonia from older plants and from the spot market to produce urea.
The ammonia reformer in the plant blew up in June, leaving the urea facility untouched but devoid of the necessary ammonia. Estimates as to when ammonia operations at Kaltim V can resume range from late October 2022 to February 2023.
Indonesian exports of ammonia for the first half of 2022 were reported at 996,000 mt by Trade Data Monitor, up 4% from the 956,000 mt exported during the first semester of 2021. With the exception of India, which took 106,000 mt, the main buyers were Southeast Asian neighbors South Korea, Japan, and Taiwan for a total of 532,000 mt.
Second-quarter 2022 shipments were reported at 518,000 mt, up 19% from the 436,000 mt exported during the same period in 2021.
June 2022 exports were reported at 168,000 mt, up from the 130,000 mt shipped during June 2021. As a sign of how buyers are working to make up for the loss of Black Sea ammonia, Morocco took 23,000 mt from Indonesia in June after taking 17,000 mt in May.
Thailand imported 205,000 mt of ammonia during January-July 2022, according to Trade Data Monitor. This is about 23% down from the 267,000 mt imported during the same period of 2021.
July 2022 imports from Indonesia and Malaysia were reported at 45,000 mt, down from the 57,000 mt imported during July 2021.