US Gulf/Tampa:
Tampa ammonia remained at $1,150/mt CFR for September, up from August’s $1,100/mt CFR.
With another boost in Cornbelt pricing, NOLA barges were back at the Tampa equivalent of $1,044/mt FOB.
Eastern Cornbelt:
After the prior week’s rapid run-up, ammonia prices settled at $1,250-$1,300/st FOB in the Eastern Cornbelt during the week, depending on location and supplier, with the low confirmed at Lima, Ohio, and the high reflecting the last offers from CF out of terminals in Illinois and Indiana.
Western Cornbelt:
The ammonia market was quoted at $1,200-$1,225/st FOB in the Western Cornbelt, with the low confirmed in Nebraska and Iowa and the high at Palmyra, Mo.
California:
Anhydrous ammonia postings from Calamco remained at $1,147/st DEL in California, with aqua ammonia posted at $301/st FOB Stockton.
Pacific Northwest:
Delivered ammonia pricing in the Pacific Northwest was quoted at $1,200/st during the week, up from August offers in the $1,050-$1,100/st DEL range. The FOB market was pegged at $1,070-$1,200/st in early September, depending on location, supplier, and time of shipment.
Aqua ammonia pricing firmed to $295/st FOB in the region.
Western Canada:
The last offers for ammonia in Western Canada were reported in a broad C$1,500-$1,800/mt DEL range for fall tons, up dramatically from the C$1,320/mt DEL pricing reported in mid-August.
Northwest Europe:
A small sale of domestic material in Cologne, Germany, at $2,120/mt CIF caused market sources to begin speculation on how prices might move in the Northwest Europe market. Sources said the equivalent price in Rotterdam would be about $1,900/mt C&F, but there are no talks at present that reflect anything near that amount.
Sources said talks about pricing in Northwest Europe have not moved anywhere close to $2,000/mt C&F. They are convinced, however, that prices will begin to rise. One trader said there is a lot of space between the current $1,290/mt C&F and the calculated price from the Cologne deal for a price shift. As talks begin and deals are made, sources expect to see the price increase, but one that settles closer to $1,400-$1,500/mt C&F rather than $2,000/mt C&F.
Prices of product from Indonesia, Trinidad, and the Arab Gulf continue to reflect the current level. However, with producers everywhere beginning to ask for higher levels, deals into Europe could soon reflect the $1,500/mt C&F.
India:
Sources said buyers are spending more time talking with potential Chinese suppliers. Reportedly, China has more ammonia on hand than it needs for its own use and is offering the tons at favorable prices to buyers.
Traders said the latest Indian deals for ammonia from China are coming in at $850-$870/mt CFR, compared with the $1,200/mt FOB offers coming from the Arab Gulf. Sources said while the amount of ammonia flowing from China to India did not appear to exceed 22 mt in the first half of the year, according to Trade Data Monitor, that number is expected to begin increasing in August and into the fourth quarter.
China:
Exports of ammonia have been stepping up, especially as Indian buyers keep looking for alternative sources from the more expensive Arab Gulf. So far, China has concentrated on fellow East Asian countries such as South Korea. Going into the last quarter of the year, however, sources said the market should see an increase in tonnage flowing to India.
Middle East:
Arab Gulf producers are claiming they are sold out through October. Any discussion of purchases supposedly is for November at $1,200/mt FOB.
Sources said if a buyer were to step up to the $1,200/mt FOB mark and ask for a prompt shipment, they are pretty sure a producer or two will be willing to make the deal. However, at this point no one is willing to pay that much for ammonia from the Gulf. The desired price of the producers would fit with the price expectations in Northwest Europe.
That same price, however, is too high for buyers in Southeast Asia. With prices out of Indonesia reported around $1,000/mt FOB, the price of Arab Gulf product is too much to accept.
So far, the cargoes heading to Southeast Asia from the Arab Gulf are all based on previous deals closed at much more favorable rates to the buyers. With the Southeast Asian economies slowing down because of inflation, higher interest rates, and COVID, many of the buyers are asking for only the bare minimum required of those contracts and – in some cases – a deferment of shipments.
The reduction in exports to Southeast Asia has some producers concerned that a surplus of material could begin building in a way that would be a force against producers’ attempts at higher prices.
Southeast Asia:
Sources reported that Trammo bought a cargo from Mitsubishi out of Indonesia at $950-$1,000/mt FOB. Sources said because the deal came late in the week, markets did not have time to react to it. Next week could see some price shifting as a result, however.
The Trammo cargo could easily be shipped to Northwest Europe and still fit in with the existing price of $1,290/mt C&F. For one trader, the deal underscored how lower prices in areas such as Southeast Asia are having a direct impact on holding back radical price shifts in Europe.
The deal, however, also showed that even the global market will impact local deals. Recent sales to South Korea and Taiwan at $900/mt CFR are now far behind. With pressure for tons from Europe causing buyers to reach around the world for product, and with Arab Gulf producers pushing for higher prices, sources said eventually the delivered price in the region will have to come up.
Brazil:
Imports of ammonia for January-August 2022 were reported at 319,000 mt by Trade Data Monitor, down 27% from the 436,000 mt imported during the same period in 2021. Trinidad, to no surprise, dominated the import market with 269,000 mt.
August 2022 imports were reported at 48,000 mt, down marginally from the 51,000 mt received in August 2021. Trinidad ammonia accounted for 74% of the import market with its 35,000 mt. The US sent 12,000 mt to Brazil for the balance of the August imports.