US Gulf/Tampa:
Tampa ammonia for October stands at $1,175/mt CFR, up $25/mt from September’s $1,150/mt CFR. Compared to the huge jumps and falls in the recent past, most sources saw this as a minor adjustment.
As for the prospects for Tampa in November, guidance appears mixed. On the one hand, Polish nitrogen plants have announced they are returning to production; on the other, threats against Norwegian gas facilities and the prospect that it will take at least a year to fix the sabotaged Nord Stream gas pipelines from Russia both weigh on November price ideas.
US Imports:
Ammonia import totals softened 2.0% in August, according to U.S. Census Bureau data, to 224,905 st from the year-ago 229,427 st. Imports totaled 418,516 st in the July-August period, falling 1.4% year-over-year from 424,314 st.
US Exports:
August ammonia exports were reported at 152,433 st, a 554.8% increase from the year-ago 23,281 st. July-August totals were up 223.8%, to 296,467 st from 91,561 st noted one year earlier.
Eastern Cornbelt:
Ammonia pricing remained firm-to-higher in the Eastern Cornbelt. While offers at Lima, Ohio, were steady at $1,300/st FOB, postings FOB East Dubuque, Ill., were reported at the $1,400/st FOB level for new business. The last confirmed offers at Koch and CF terminals fell in the $1,275-$1,300/st FOB range in Illinois and Indiana.
Western Cornbelt:
The ammonia market in the Western Cornbelt continued to be reported in the $1,250-$1,275/st FOB range, depending on location. “We’re just waiting for fall ammonia application to begin, but we need moisture for this to happen,” commented one source at midweek.
Southern Plains:
Ammonia pricing in the Southern Plains fell in the $1,150-$1,175/st range FOB regional production points in mid-October, with the high at Coffeyville, Kan., and the low reported for the last confirmed offers in Oklahoma. Truck pricing out of Gulf Coast terminals was quoted in the $1,080-$1,100/st FOB range.
“There is limited fall application at this time,” commented one Texas source. “A lot of ‘wait and see.’ There’s certainly no way to put down any ammonia until we get some rain.”
South Central:
Truck pricing for ammonia out of Gulf Coast terminals strengthened to $1,080-$1,100/st FOB, up from $1,050-$1,080/st at last report. No prices were reportedly being offered at El Dorado, Ark., Midway, Tenn., or Cherokee, Ala., sources said.
Black Sea:
Ammonia exports from Russia out of the Black Sea remain nil. However, efforts continue to implement a plan instigated by the United Nations to restart ammonia shipments out of Russia through Ukraine and out by sea.
Reportedly, the UN worked out a deal with Trammo to have the ammonia trader take ownership of ammonia as it crosses into Ukraine. From there, Trammo will negotiate a deal with Ukraine to have the ammonia sent to Yuzhnyy for seaborne export. The arrangement is reportedly part of the larger grain deal that would allow for the safe passage of Ukrainian grain to the world market.
The recent explosion on the bridge connecting Crimea to Russia and the illegal annexation of several Ukrainian provinces by Russia led to new demands and concerns. Sources said Russia is threatening to pull out of the grain deal if its ammonia does not start flowing to the world. Industry sources noted that the pipeline that would move the ammonia from the Russian-Ukraine border to Yuzhnyy passes through areas under renewed bombardment by Russia.
There was disruption to the market right after the flow from Russia stopped, but now the market has balanced itself and shows a surplus. Critics said implementing the plan could lower prices. However, despite statements from the UN, at least half of the ammonia exported would not be used for fertilizer production, but for other industrial use.
India:
Demand for ammonia is expected to pick up in India. Sources said the lower phos acid price negotiated for the fourth quarter could make domestic DAP production more viable. As a result, the producers might end up looking for more ammonia.
Prices remain at $850-$900/mt CFR, with spot purchases mostly coming from China and contract tons from the Arab Gulf.
Middle East:
Producers claim they have full order books and are not ready to offer spot ammonia tons. When asked, however, they will quote a price of $1,100/mt FOB for a spot deal. Sources said that level is too high for any current market.
Northwest Europe:
The ammonia price remains steady at $1,250-$1,310/mt CFR, with no new deals reported to shift the dial.Sources said some producers in Europe seem to be talking about either reopening their plants or stepping up production following reports of a dip in natural gas prices.
Southeast Asia:
Petronas continues its force majeure on LNG shipments, but sources said this does not seem to be impacting Petronas ammonia production. There is a report that Trammo bought a cargo from Petronas. No details of the sale were available to sources.