US Gulf/Tampa:
Tampa ammonia for December remains under pressure as more European ammonia plants return to production. The November price was down $25/mt, to $1,150/mt CFR from October’s $1,175/mt CFR.
Eastern Cornbelt:
Prompt ammonia pricing was reported in a broad range at $1,275-$1,400/st FOB in the Eastern Cornbelt, with the low at Trilla, Ill., and the high at East Dubuque, Ill. Limited truck tons offered out of CF terminals were quoted firmly at the $1,350/st FOB level during the week, while pricing FOB Lima, Ohio, remained at $1,300/st FOB.
Western Cornbelt:
Ammonia pricing was quoted at $1,275-$1,320/st FOB for prompt truck tons in the Western Cornbelt, depending on location.
California:
Anhydrous ammonia postings in California remained at $1,250/st DEL. The aqua ammonia market was unchanged at $271-$336/st FOB, with the low reported for the last offers at Stockton and the high at Sycamore.
Pacific Northwest:
Ammonia pricing in the Pacific Northwest was pegged at $1,335-$1,350/st FOB and $1,350/st DEL. The aqua ammonia market remained at $345/st FOB in the region.
Western Canada:
The last prices for ammonia remained at C$1,600-$1,800/mt DEL for fall tons in Western Canada, but no current offers were on the table in early November.
Black Sea:
The continued closure of the Ukrainian ports keeps the market from assessing the cost of ammonia from the Black Sea.
Imports into Turkey, however, are reported at $1,030-$1,050/mt CFR. The deals are said to be under formula-based contracts, and most of the material is reportedly from Arab Gulf suppliers. Turkish buyers have been seeking cargoes from any source, including North Africa and Southeast Asia.
India:
Sources said ammonia buyers are waking up and making more inquiries. Recent small purchases of 6,000-10,000 mt have been reported from Southeast Asia and China. The landed price is now reported at $920/mt CFR for the spot tons being delivered to East Coast ports.
Contracted material under formula-based deals continues to arrive at West Coast ports. The price for this material is reported at $880/mt CFR.
Middle East:
Sources said Arab Gulf producers have excess material, but are reluctant to release it into the market. Reportedly, the producers are holding out for $1,050/mt FOB, but are getting no takers.
Despite the lack of new business, sources said an estimated level based on the price in Northwest Europe would have a netback of $1,015-$1,030/mt FOB. Traders said, however, that bids out of Europe at $1,000/mt CFR would show a netback to the Arab Gulf of $980-$990/mt FOB. This price would fit in with the contract price of material sold to Turkey, which is pegged at $950-$970/mt FOB.
Even OCP in Morocco is looking for lower prices from the Arab producers. Sources said the bids from the phosphate giant would lead to netbacks of $920-$950/mt FOB.
While the producers hold out for a higher price, sources said surplus tons are building up in the holding tanks. Eventually, said one trader, the producers will have to accept a sub-$1,000/mt price to move their product.
Northwest Europe:
Sources reported an ammonia sale into France at $1,150/mt CFR and anther deal into Antwerp at $1,125/mt CFR. Indications for softer pricing are expected to continue as natural gas prices come down.
Sources said the drop in natural gas prices, however, may not continue. Winter is coming, and even with the current high reserves of gas built up in recent months, prices for the first quarter of 2023 are unknown, but likely to be higher.
Even though gas prices have come off, sources said the levels are still at historic highs. Resumption of ammonia production in Europe is under consideration, but some companies seem to be opting for importing the product they need.
Spain, which gets it gas from Algeria rather than Russia, has an advantage in that it can plan ahead for operations using the cheaper gas. Reportedly, at least one ammonia plant is planning to restart in December. Plants in France and Romania, however, which had indicated they might restart operations, have instead gone back to the import market looking for ammonia.
A trader said some companies decided that unless they could be guaranteed gas at current or lower levels for at least three months, there was no incentive to begin opening their plants. Even as some are hesitant, there are a number of ammonia plants that are running.
East Asia:
China remains a new major supplier of ammonia. South Korea, Taiwan, and India have all benefited from Chinese exports. Each of the buyers has taken small lots of ammonia in hand-to-mouth buying rather than booking large quantities to place into storage.
The rest of the market in the area remains listless. Sources said buyers such as South Korea and Taiwan have been asking their long-term suppliers from the Arab Gulf to reduce the amount of ammonia they are required to take with each shipment. In some cases, the buyers are also asking for shipments to be delayed.
The global economic downturn is forcing East Asian factories to cut back on their production as the West struggles with inflation and high interest rates. Reduced demand for their final product means the factories do not need as many inputs, such as ammonia.
Sources are still trying to figure out the purpose of the Persero-UAE/Fertiglobe MOU for marketing urea and ammonia. One trader said Persero already had a better global ammonia marketing operation than Fertiglobe.
Sources speculated that the real purpose of the agreement is that it allows for Indonesia to have access to UAE technology for plant upgrades. International observers noted that this would help Indonesia break into the “green” ammonia market.
Brazil:
January-October 2022 imports of ammonia were reported at 367,000 mt by Trade Data Monitor, down about 23% from the 477,000 mt imported during the same period in 2021. October 2022 imports were reported at 49,000 mt, compared with 33,000 mt imported during October 2021. Trinidad is the main supplier of ammonia for Brazil.
Occasionally, Brazil exports ammonia. Sources said the exports are done when domestic urea production is not necessary and opportunities present themselves. January-October 2022 exports from Brazil totaled 93,000 mt. October 2022 exports were reported at only 20 mt, but September exports were totaled 44,000 mt.