US Gulf/Tampa:
Most players expected Tampa ammonia prices to continue to erode in April after the $200/mt drop to $590/mt CFR for March. Sources cited both plentiful supplies of ammonia and low natural gas prices.
US Imports:
Ammonia imports for July-January fell 12.8%, according to US Census Bureau data, to 1.35 million st from the year-ago 1.54 million st. January imports slipped 21.4%, to 217,889 st from the prior-year 277,121 st.
US Exports:
Ammonia exports for January firmed 334.3% year-over-year, to 105,361 st from 24,259 st. July-January shipments moved 291.0% higher, to 829,589 st from 212,196 st a year ago.
Eastern Cornbelt:
Ammonia remained at $725-$750/st FOB in the Eastern Cornbelt, with the low confirmed at terminals in Illinois and Indiana and the high FOB Lima, Ohio.
Western Cornbelt:
Ammonia was steady at $670-$710/st FOB in the Western Cornbelt, with the low reported at Beatrice, Neb., and the high at Marshalltown, Iowa. Other terminal prices in mid-March included $685/st FOB Sergeant Bluff, Iowa, and Palmyra, Mo., and $700/st FOB Iowa terminals at Garner, Fort Dodge, and Washington.
Southern Plains:
Ammonia prices remained under pressure in the Southern Plains. The latest offers were quoted in the $570-$610/st FOB range, with the low reported at Pryor, Okla., and the high at Coffeyville, Kan. The Verdigris, Okla., ammonia market was pegged at the $590/st FOB level at midweek. Truck pricing out of Gulf Coast terminals slipped to $525-$540/st FOB.
Some sources speculated that ammonia could be purchased for as low as $520-$550/st FOB in Oklahoma as the week progressed, but those offers were not confirmed.
South Central:
The last offers for truck ammonia in the South Central region were quoted at $550/st FOB Midway, Tenn., with recent pricing out of Hopewell, Va., pegged at the $525/st FOB level. Truck pricing out of Gulf Coast terminals fell in the $525-$540/st FOB range.
Black Sea:
Buying interest in Turkey continues, although sources said that no new business was done since the $520/mt CFR deal from one week ago. Buyers are now pushing hard on $460/mt CFR. Sources said that level is likely to be achieved by the end of the month.
One trader noted the price of ammonia has been dropping in all major markets, even without the presence of Russian material from the Black Sea or Baltic ports. He speculated that prices could fall even more dramatically if Russia’s plans for the Tamar Peninsula port come to fruition on time. Under the development plan, the Tamar port is slated to export 2 million mt/y of ammonia beginning in January 2024.
India:
The market’s primary activity continues to be comprised of major importers taking product under long-term contracts. The latest estimated price into India was pegged at $450-$460/mt CFR, based on the reported $370s/mt FOB price from the Arab Gulf.
Middle East:
A reported sale from Oman to China at $455/mt CFR had an estimated netback to the Arab Gulf of $370-$380/mt FOB. Sources said the sale was the only non-contract material seen moving out of the area due to a general malaise in demand.
Suppliers in North Africa are also talking about lower prices. Sources said Algeria is engaged in talks in the low-$400s/mt FOB. The impact of these pricing levels is expected to be felt from Northwest Europe to Asia.
Northwest Europe:
No new spot deals were reported in the region. Even without sales to mark new prices, sources said the lower Arab Gulf price and willingness of North African suppliers to reduce their pricing expectations puts the estimated Northwest Europe price in the $450s/mt CFR.
Sources were careful to note that no deals have been done into the area in the $400s/mt CFR. The past week showed an average production cost of ammonia at $530/mt ex-plant. This amount is now too high for the estimated trading price out of Antwerp, but still lower than the price seen at the beginning of the month.
Asia:
Confirmed reports of a sale from Oman to China at $455/mt CFR shifted prices downward throughout the industry. An as-yet unconfirmed sale into Taiwan also came in at just under $500/mt CFR, one week after the price was reported in the $530s/mt CFR.
The market’s ever-lower prices will begin an end to Chinese ammonia exports, said one source. Once the price crossed the $600/mt CFR price in Asia, he noted, it became more difficult for the Chinese suppliers to justify the deals. The elimination of Chinese ammonia from the regional market could slow the price decline in the area.
South Korean ammonia imports for January-February totaled 186,000 mt, Trade Data Monitor reported, a 33% drop from the year-ago 277,000 mt. Indonesia supplied 98,000 mt, followed by Saudi Arabia with 53,000 mt.
February imports were reported at 83,000 mt, down from 113,000 mt in February 2022. Indonesia accounted for 66% of the market with 55,000 mt, while China supplied another 13,000 mt.