U.S. Gulf/Tampa: Negotiations for a new February price for Tampa were scheduled to begin on Jan. 20. Prices for Yuzhnyy/Black Sea recently dropped about $45/mt (GM Jan. 9. 2012), and that could be reflected in the new Tampa price.
In the meantime, there were rumors at NOLA that a deal may have been struck, but there were no details. Sources said if it did indeed occur as a spot sale, it would have been well below $612/st FOB. Since the NOLA market now has extra tons from Mosaic and new tons from the OCI Beaumont plant, sources say it is not surprising.
The Henry Hub NYMEX natural gas price continued to crash last week, offering even more of a boon to U.S. domestic ammonia producers. Sources said they could afford to lower ammonia prices as a result. The price settled on Jan. 19 at $2.322/mmBtu.
U.S. ammonia imports for November were down 13 percent, according to the U.S. Department of Commerce, to 581,171 st from the year-ago 671,847 st. July-November imports were off only 4 percent, to 3.11 million st from 3.23 million st.
Eastern Cornbelt: A steady run of ammonia on corn ground in early January resulted in some tight supplies out of Illinois terminals, but activity was slowed by winter weather conditions at mid-month. The anhydrous ammonia market remained in the $650-$660/st range FOB regional terminals.
Up to eight inches of snow was expected in northern Illinois by Jan. 20 as a strong storm pushed its way through the region. The storm brought frigid temperatures as well, with lows dropping to the single digits late on Jan. 19. Winter weather advisories were also in place late in the week for northern Indiana, northwestern Ohio, and southwestern Michigan, with three to seven inches of snow expected.
Western Cornbelt: The Western Cornbelt got another dose of winter weather at mid-month. Up to seven inches of snow was expected in northern Iowa late in the week, with lesser amounts in central and southern Iowa and parts of Nebraska. Eastern Iowa saw snowfall ranging from two to six inches on Jan. 19, and parts of the state were also bracing for single-digit temperatures late in the week.
One Missouri source reported a “rollercoaster” of weather changes in his location last week, with temperatures dropping from 50 degrees on Jan. 17 to just six degrees early Jan. 18. The unseasonably warm weather in early January unleashed a torrent of ammonia applications on row crop ground, with some sources reporting five-hour truck lines at terminals. That brisk demand also resulted in some supply outages at terminals.
After what one source described as “spotty” fall demand, the heavy January fertilizer movement was appreciated. “This will definitely take some pressure off of spring,” said one contact, who noted that his location was also seeing heavy dry spreading activity in early January.
Sources quoted the ammonia market in the $605-$645/st FOB range at mid-month, with the low in Nebraska and the upper end out of Missouri terminals. Dealer pricing out of Iowa terminals was tagged in the $610-$620/st FOB range, while delivered ammonia in the Missouri market was pegged at $630-$650/st last week, depending on the point of origination. Sources even talked of delivered tons coming out of North Dakota to meet the region’s brisk ammonia demand.
California: Anhydrous ammonia was steady at $820-$825/st truck-DEL in California, with aqua ammonia referenced at the $219/st FOB level in the state. Several sources said a pricing adjustment may be on the books in the near term, however.
California was bracing for some long-overdue precipitation as the week advanced. Sources talked of “significant moisture” moving into the state last week, which comes after weeks of unseasonably warm a