US Gulf/Tampa:
Tampa ammonia continued to be called $380/mt CFR for May, down from April’s $435/mt CFR. With both inland and Gulf Coast truck prices going down and barges under pressure, sources said Tampa is likely due another drop in June.
US Imports:
July-March ammonia imports softened 11.9% year-over-year, the US Census Bureau reported, to 1.74 million st from 1.98 million st. March imports were off 18.3%, at 215,375 st compared to the year-ago 263,468 st.
US Exports:
Ammonia exports for March stood at 148,175 st, rising 452.8% from the year-ago 26,804 st. July-March exports totaled 1.04 million st, up 275.4% from the prior-year 277,411 st.
Eastern Cornbelt:
With demand at a lull between preplant and sidedress applications, ammonia prices dropped to $500-$550/st FOB in the Eastern Cornbelt, with the low reported on a spot basis in Illinois and Indiana.
Western Cornbelt:
Ammonia pricing slipped to $465-$500/st FOB in the Western Cornbelt, with the low reported in Nebraska and the high at Palmyra, Mo. Most Iowa terminals were quoted at the $475-$485/st FOB mark for new business.
In the Southern Plains, new offers out of production points in Oklahoma slipped to $450-$490/st FOB, depending on location.Truck pricing for ammonia out of Gulf Coast terminals in Louisiana dropped to $335-$350/st FOB, well below the prior $400-$435/st FOB range.
Northern Plains:
Ammonia prices were falling in the Northern Plains. The terminal market was quoted at $490-$525/st FOB, down from the prior $550-$625/st FOB range, with the low confirmed at Velva, N.D. Delivered ammonia was also lower at $525-$570/st in the region, down from $610-$630/st.
Northwest Europe:
After a deal reported earlier in the month briefly boosted the price above $400/mt CFR, prices have reverted to the upper $300s/mt CFR.
Sources said the pricing blip came because a French buyer wanted prompt delivery of a cargo. The buyer received offers that would have placed the market at $390/mt CFR, but would have had to wait until late-May or early June for the cargo. At the time of the deal, traders described the price shift as temporary.
Sources talked of small deals being closed at $370-$380/mt CFR, with buyers pushing for $350-$360/mt CFR. Players expect prices to continue to edge downward.
Sources reported that Russian ammonia from the Baltic Sea is helping to push down pricing ideas in Europe.
EuroChem reportedly chartered three vessels to handle ammonia out of a port near St. Petersburg. The port does not have any ammonia storage capacity, nor does it have a sophisticated process of moving ammonia to the vessels.
The plan is reportedly for one of the ships to load the ammonia directly from railcars sitting at the port, allowing the ship to serve as a floating ammonia storage tank. The other two chartered vessels would then take material from the storage ship.
The loading is expected to begin sometime in early June, and sources said the process will be slower than loading the product from dedicated ammonia facilities. The tonnage is expected to be offered to buyers in Antwerp and possibly North Africa, specifically Morocco.
The Russian ammonia is expected to apply additional downward pressure on prices already in decline.
Middle East:
Sources said the Middle Eastern market is stabilizing. Prices remain in the upper $240s/mt FOB, while producers show a steady offtake of product.
The Saudis are reportedly showing a balance between their supplies and demand. Qatar and Oman were each said to have an additional cargo available for late-May shipment, but neither appeared too concerned about making a sale. Traders said the spot tons from these two countries might ease the price down a bit more, but no one is expecting a crash in Arab Gulf pricing.
India:
Buyers continue to push for sub-$300/mt CFR prices, and seem to be willing to wait until sellers agree. Sources reported no new major business that would shift the price from its current $300-$310/mt CFR level.
Southeast Asia:
The region’s price softening is beginning to cause a slight shortage of available tonnage. As prices move to sub-$300/mt CFR levels, suppliers from China and Indonesia will find providing product difficult, sources said, citing a current ammonia production price of approximately $300/mt in those two countries.
Indonesia exported 377,000 mt of ammonia in January-March, according to Trade Data Monitor,off about21% from first-quarter 2022. March exports were reported at 120,000 mt, down from the year-ago 163,000 mt. China purchased 66,000 mt, South Korea took 24,000 mt, and Taiwan bought 19,000 mt.
Indonesia’s March exports were largely focused on Asian buyers. Due to the war in Ukraine and the subsequent loss of ammonia exported from the Black Sea, buyers in North Africa and Europe reached halfway around the world for their ammonia needs in March 2022, with Tunisia taking 24,000 mt and Belgium buying 25,000 mt. These counties did not buy any Indonesian ammonia in 2021, nor have they purchased any tons in January-March of this year.
The lack of sales outside of Asia indicated that buyers West of Suez have been able to find the ammonia they need at affordable prices, despite the continued lack of product shipping from the Black Sea or Baltic regions.
Brazil:
January-April ammonia imports totaled 97,000 mt, Trade Data Monitor reported, down 21% from the prior-year 123,000 mt. April imports were pegged at 15,000 mt, compared to 17,000 mt in April 2022. The market’s largest March suppliers were Trinidad and Tobago with 10,000 mt, followed by Colombia with 5,000 mt.
Brazilian ammonia exports were counted at 33,000 mt in January-April, off from 34,000 mt recorded in the same period of 2022. April exports consisted of 20 mt to Uruguay, falling from 15,000 mt exported in April 2022. Sources said they expect to see Brazil continue to export limited amounts of ammonia to regional buyers.