US Gulf/Tampa:
Tampa ammonia remained at $295/mt CFR for August, up $10/mt from July’s $285/mt CFR. The August increase also pushed up the Gulf Coast truck market by $10/st, to $270-$280/st FOB from the prior low of $260/st FOB.
Eastern Cornbelt:
Ammonia prices remained at $465-$485/st FOB in the Eastern Cornbelt for prompt or prepay tons, with the high reported in Indiana and Ohio.
Western Cornbelt:
The ammonia market was quoted at $440-$475/st FOB in the Western Cornbelt, with the low confirmed at Hoag, Neb., and the high at Palmyra, Mo. Most Iowa terminals fell in the $440-$470/st FOB range, with the lower numbers out west. The Fort Dodge, Iowa, market was pegged at $440-$450/st FOB in early August.
Ammonia pricing in the Southern Plains was reported at $385-$425/st FOB, with the low at Pryor, Okla., and the high reported at Verdigris, Okla.
Northern Plains:
Ammonia pricing was quoted at $475/st FOB and DEL in the Northern Plains, reflecting the most recent prompt or prepay offers from producers.
Black Sea:
Ammonia offers into Turkey are now coming at $320-$340/mt CFR. Those prices are being met with serious pushback from buyers, however, some of whom are reportedly looking to Iran to push down prices.
Turkey has regularly purchased Iranian material, but not in large numbers. Turkish buyers bought 32,000 mt of Iranian ammonia in 2022 against total imports of almost 800,000 mt for the year, according to Trade Data Monitor.
Turkey imported 434,000 mt in January-June 2023, up 28% from the year-ago 339,000 mt. Egypt sent 85,000 mt, while Libya and Oman accounted for another 58,000 mt each. Trinidad and Tobago added 46,000 mt.
June imports were reported at 39,000 mt, down from 50,000 mt in June 2022. Trinidad accounted for 59% of the market with 23,000 mt. Second-quarter imports totaled 236,000 mt, up 68% from 141,000 mt in April-June 2022.
India:
FACT has reportedly backed away from further import calls, claiming its needs can now be covered by its own facilities. The move seems like a tactic to push back against the high ammonia prices being offered by international traders, one trader said.
India’s last reported spot ammonia deal was reported at $350/mt CFR in late July. The bulk of the shipments into India fall under long-term contracts with substantial discounts to the buyers.
Middle East:
Producers claim to be sold out for August. Talks for September tons appeared to show limited spot availability from Oman and a few other countries in the Arab Gulf.
The lack of any new spot deals left the ammonia price at an estimated $290-$300/mt FOB. However, with September purchase talks underway, traders said the steam for higher prices seems to have run out. One trader noted that any business going west of the Suez Canal will have to show a netback no higher than $250/mt FOB.
Fertial is reportedly in final talks with traders to make awards following a selling auction for ammonia out of Algeria. At the same time, sources said AOA sold a cargo at $280-$300/mt FOB.
Northwest Europe:
Some European ammonia producers are slowly coming back online while also keeping their options open for more imports. Fluctuations in the natural gas market have led producers to fill their needs on a hand-to-mouth basis.
So far, the third quarter looks steady enough for European production to continue, sources said. Uncertainty looms for the fourth quarter, however, despite strong reserves of natural gas.
If the winter is too harsh, ammonia producers figure they will have to accept cutbacks in gas supplies to ensure enough gas is available for domestic use. If the upcoming winter is similar to the previous one, sources said, both consumer and industrial needs should be met without much trouble.