US Gulf/Tampa:
No news was reported on the Tampa ammonia price for September. Expectations are centered on an increase from August’s $295/mt CFR, with some players speculating the market could move up $40-$50/mt.
Eastern Cornbelt:
Ammonia was quoted in the $500-$525/st FOB range in Illinois and Indiana, depending on location, with no pricing or availability reported at Lima, Ohio, during the week.
Western Cornbelt:
Ammonia remained at $500-$525/st FOB in the Western Cornbelt, with the low reported in Nebraska and the high in Missouri. Recent offers in the Southern Plains included $475/st FOB Enid, Okla.
Northern Plains:
Ammonia was quoted firmly at the $500/st FOB level in the Northern Plains, with no current delivered pricing reported in late August.
India:
FACT has re-entered the market, calling a tender with mid-September delivery set to close at the end of the month. The market’s current spot tightness will make it difficult to estimate prices in the tender, sources said.
For now, the spot market continues to show prices in the low-$380s/mt CFR. With levels moving up in the Arab Gulf and Europe, however, increases in India are expected. The bulk of the business at India is done by long-term contract, at prices significantly lower than spot.
Two vessels of Iranian material will help the Indian ammonia supply. The Romeo Gas was scheduled to arrive in Kandla from Sohar, Oman, on Aug. 23. Another ship, the Fortune Gas, also out of Sohar, is carrying 20,000 mt of ammonia for Goa and Paradip.
Sources noted steady reports of Iranian ammonia going into India. However, the official Indian import figures, as reported by Trade Data Monitor, show no imports from Iran in 2022 or 2023. Traders said the vessels usually stop at a third country, where new paperwork is prepared to indicate a different point of origin.
The Iranian cargoes arriving in August helped to ease pressure on the market. Product expected from Saudi Arabia was delayed due to production issues at Ma’aden, sources said, although the problems have now reportedly been corrected.
January-June ammonia imports firmed to 1.3 million mt, Trade Data Monitor reported, increasing from the year-ago 1 million mt. Saudi Arabia led importers with 548,000 mt, followed by Bahrain with 200,000 mt.
June imports were up 53%, to 307,000 mt from 201,000 mt in June 2022. Imports for the second quarter were 669,000 mt, up 52% from the 160,000 mt logged in April-June 2022.
Middle East:
Nutrien has reportedly bought 20,000 mt from Ma’aden at $400/mt FOB, an $80/mt jump from the Arab Gulf’s last-done spot deal. Sources reported scratching their heads at the deal, which has significantly raised prices in the region.
Market players are trying to figure out where the ammonia will go. A $400/mt FOB price would push up both Northwest Europe and Morocco by about $150/mt, to over $500/mt CFR, or even higher if the ammonia is heading for the US.
At the same time, market players are looking at the late-September loading date with curiosity, claiming that such an arrangement does not sound like a normal spot deal.
Northwest Europe:
Gas prices are on a rollercoaster, sources said. The production cost in Europe is now estimated at $400/mt ex-plant. Sellers were reportedly discussing deals at $450/mt CFR before the Nutrien deal with Ma’aden, which could ultimately push prices to $500/mt CFR. For now, however, the estimated price remains at $400-$450/mt CFR.
Traders said the higher prices do not make sense at this time. Demand is soft, with buyers taking tons on a hand-to-mouth basis, while earlier efforts to push up the price based on European production costs were countered with lower-priced imports. Price increases related to both the Nutrien deal and efforts by sellers to lift the market appeared to dominate current discussions, despite the market’s ongoing weak demand conditions.
China:
Chinese ammonia imports and exports increased during the first seven months of the year. Trade Data Monitor reported exports at 144,000 mt, up from the 28,000 mt shipped in January-July 2022. January-July ammonia imports firmed to 449,000 mt, up from 155,000 mt in the same period last year.
July exports softened to 9,000 mt, down from 11,000 mt in July 2022. Sources attributed the reduction to softer prices in Southeast Asia, making offshore sales uneconomical. July imports firmed significantly, however, to 59,000 mt from 10,000 mt received in July 2022. Indonesia led July suppliers with 29,000 mt, followed by Saudi Arabia with 20,000 mt.
South Korea:
Imports into South Korea mirrored the soft demand reported from the region. According to Trade Data Monitor, January-July imports stood at 649,000 mt, a 23% decline from 846,000 mt in the prior-year period. July imports were 91,000 mt, a 39% decrease from 148,000 mt received in July 2022.
Bulgaria:
Neochim resumed operations at its ammonia unit at Dimitrovgrad in south-central Bulgaria on Aug. 20 after a two-week shutdown, the producer said in a bourse filing cited by SeeNews.
Earlier this month, Neochim reported it had halted ammonia production “after storing the necessary quantities of ammonia for the operation of installations technologically connected to the ammonia unit.” Neochim has capacity to produce 0.45 million mt/y of ammonia and 0.63 million mt/y of ammonium nitrate at its Dimitrovgrad site.