US Gulf/Tampa:
Another Tampa ammonia increase is expected for October, up from September’s $390/mt CFR, with sources citing firming inland and NOLA barge prices for nitrogen fertilizers, as well as continued strength in international markets. One industry contact speculated that the October hike will be “significant.”
Adding fuel to the fire, the NOLA ammonia barge market firmed to $500/st FOB based on a confirmed 5,000 st purchase.
US Imports:
The US Census Bureau reported ammonia imports of 158,358 st for July, the first month of the 2023-2034 fertilizer year, down 18.2% from the year-ago 193,611 st. Canada sent 94,038 st, Trinidad and Tobago shipped 56,891 st, and Argentina added 7,166 st.
US Exports:
July ammonia exports were 97,870 st, off 32.1% from 144,034 st in the previous July. Morocco was the top export destination with 28,222 st, followed by Spain with 15,554 st. Norway bought 15,157 st, ahead of 14,330 st to Brazil.
Eastern Cornbelt:
Ammonia continued to inch higher in the Eastern Cornbelt for limited offers at mid-month. New prices were pegged in a tight range at $650-$655/st FOB regional terminals for fall tons “if you can find it,” as one source reported. The high end of the range was quoted at Huntington, Ind.
Western Cornbelt:
Ammonia prices firmed to the $610-$650/st FOB range in the Western Cornbelt for the few reported offers in mid-September, up from last week’s $600-$625/st FOB range.
Northern Plains:
Ammonia prices were up in the Northern Plains, with the latest offers confirmed at $650/st FOB terminals in Minnesota and North Dakota. No current delivered pricing was reported in the region.
Great Lakes:
Ammonia pricing in the Great Lakes region covered a broad range in mid-September at $585-$655/st FOB, with the low reported by Michigan sources for tons from Courtright, Ont., and the high FOB Huntington, Ind.
India:
Sources reported the last offer into the FACT tender for 7,500 mt came in at $550/mt CFR. However, sources could not confirm that an award was made.
Traders had earlier speculated the price could be in the $500s/mt CFR for spot purchases, but the lack of any deal other than the FACT tender convinced some that the price was an outlier. Few were willing to accept that level as the actual spot market. However, a Fertiglobe sale to Ma’aden for delivery to Kandla came in at $510/mt CFR. This level is now generally accepted in the marketplace, giving more support to the $550/mt CFR offer to FACT.
Middle East:
Sources estimated the netback from the latest Indian business at $440-$450/mt FOB. The lack of previous spot deals out of the area has left posted prices well below what market players were discussing. This left many without guidance on where the spot market was moving. The presence of the sale into India helped clarify the situation.
Northwest Europe:
Sources reported a sale by Trammo to CF in the UK at $455/mt CFR. The sale was part of a series of discussions in the market pointing to higher prices. Reportedly some spot inquiries are circulating with expectations that prices will climb higher.
The Trammo deal and subsequent discussions now have ammonia prices significantly higher than the production cost, still around $400/mt ex-plant based on natural gas prices. The big question now is whether plants will step up production to take advantage of these higher prices.
Indonesia:
January-July ammonia exports from Indonesia totaled 967,000 mt, Trade Data Monitor reported, down about 19% from the year-ago 1.2 million mt.
July exports were 131,000 mt, falling by nearly one-third from 194,000 mt in July 2022. Regional buyers dominated the month’s purchases, with South Korea taking 48,000 mt, followed by China with 39,000 mt. Taiwan and Vietnam received 16,000 mt each.