US Gulf/Tampa:
The Tampa ammonia price for October was settled at $575/mt CFR, $185/mt above September’s $390/mt CFR. An increase had been expected, fueled by recent hikes in the NOLA barge market, Gulf vessel business, and inland terminal prices.
The NOLA barge market for ammonia was quoted at $522-$526/st FOB for the latest business, up from the prior $500/st FOB level. The Gulf vessel market jumped to $580/mt CFR for recent transactions, while truck tons out of Gulf production points reportedly firmed to $550/st FOB.
Eastern Cornbelt:
Ammonia prices continued to climb, with reports of new producer offers jumping to $725/st FOB in Illinois and Indiana during the week, up from last week’s $650-$660/st FOB range. The increase was fueled by news of the October Tampa price surging to $575/mt CFR, up from September’s $390/mt CFR contract.
Western Cornbelt:
Ammonia firmed to $700-$725/st FOB in the Western Cornbelt based on new producer postings in the region, up from last week’s $650-$675/st FOB range, with the low reported in Nebraska and the high in Missouri.
California:
Ammonia prices in California were slated to move to $740/st DEL on Oct. 1, up from the prior $580/st level. Aqua ammonia postings were also strengthening, to $200/st FOB Stockton and $210/st FOB Sycamore, up from $159-$169/st FOB.
Pacific Northwest:
Ammonia prices jumped to $750-$775/st FOB in the Pacific Northwest for limited tons, well above the prior $600/st FOB level, with the high confirmed at Ritzville, Wash., for October trucks. Rail-DEL offers were even higher at a reported $1,000-$1,100/st range, but no actual business was confirmed at those levels.
Aqua ammonia prices were quoted at $190/st FOB in the region, up from the previous $155/st FOB level.
Western Canada:
The latest ammonia offers in Western Canada were quoted at C$1,200/mt FOB and C$1,295/mt DEL for October-December tons, up sharply from earlier offers at C$900/mt FOB and C$1,000/mt DEL.
Northwest Europe:
Sources said the latest Tampa price of $575/mt CFR, a reported deal out of Algeria at $650/mt FOB, and a sale from the Arab Gulf at $550/mt FOB should put the Northwest European price just under $700/mt CFR. That price is not being discussed in the area, however, nor is it expected to be.
The current price of natural gas puts the production cost just under $500/mt ex-plant, European sources noted. At this level, the Northwest European price would translate to an estimated $550-$555/mt CFR, though the lack of any spot business in the area makes nailing down an exact price difficult. For now, sources said traders are able to talk about any price they like, but the lack of potential deals makes the discussion purely academic.
The gap in the price, based on the Tampa price and the ex-plant price, could be an incentive for European producers to step up production. Even if gas prices move up, the difference between imported and domestically produced material is enough to allow for sales to occur without producers taking a loss.
Middle East:
Rumors of a SABIC sale at $550/mt FOB have circulated widely enough that the entire market has signed on to this new price level, sources said. The move came as AOA in Algeria promoted reports of a deal at $650/mt and the Tampa price jumped to $575/mt CFR. No details were available on either the SABIC or AOA deals, but traders have taken these as the new price levels for ammonia.
Ma’aden ammonia production remains stunted by an ongoing plant closure. There was no word on when the facility will be up and running again, and players do not expect to see product from the plant anytime soon. To back up their thinking, sources noted that Ma’aden released two vessels from its lineup that are normally used to carry its product.
Exports of ammonia from Iran totaled 392,000 mt in January-August, Trade Data Monitor reported, up about 20% from the year-ago 326,000 mt. August exports were 40,000 mt, down marginally from the 45,000 mt shipped in August 2022. India was Iran’s largest buyer, taking 37,000 mt for the month.
India:
Rumors are circulating that the imported ammonia price could hit $600-$700/mt CFR, based on unconfirmed reports that small and desperate buyers are looking for product. Sources said, however, that once the price hits $600/mt CFR, demand will most likely drop as buyers push back on the price increase.
Without firm confirmation of any new deals, sources said the last-done spot price into India of $510/mt CFR still holds, although this level is now unrealistic considering the updated prices seen in Tampa, the Arab Gulf, and North Africa. The bulk of ammonia imported to India is acquired under long-term contracts at sharp discounts from the spot market. Sources said only a few smaller buyers play in the spot market, and mostly only on an as-needed basis.
Mangalore Chemicals and Fertilizers Ltd. (MCF) shut its ammonia and urea production for a four-week maintenance turnaround. While the company described the closure as routine, the move took some in the industry by surprise, sources said.
India imported 1.5 million mt of ammonia in January-July, according to Trade Data Monitor, a25% increase from 1.2 million mt reported one year earlier. July imports stood at 183,000 mt, rising 29% from 142,000 mt in July 2022. Saudi Arabia led suppliers with 93,000 mt, followed by Oman and Malaysia with 19,000 mt each.
Southeast Asia:
The regional market remains slack, and sources reported a continued lack of strong demand from Taiwan and South Korea. The market’s softness could encourage some Arab Gulf suppliers to shift their product to the European market. For now, the main focus of buyers seems to be on calculating their 2024 needs and preparing for talks with suppliers.