US Gulf/Tampa:
Expectations of another possible increase in the Tampa ammonia price for November were reportedly fueled by the deadly attack in Israel and growing tension in the Middle East. Others cautioned, however, that any argument in favor of an increase could be void if oil and gas markets cool off in the coming weeks, after the initial shock.
In the wake of October’s $575/mt CFR Tampa settlement, truck pricing out of Gulf Coast production points reportedly firmed to a broad $520-$625/st FOB range, depending on location.
Eastern Cornbelt:
Ammonia prices continued to edge higher in the region. While CF remained at $725/st FOB for ammonia in the Eastern Cornbelt, Koch reportedly raised offers to as high as $740-$750/st FOB in Illinois and Indiana.
Western Cornbelt:
The ammonia market was steady at $715-$725/st FOB in the Western Cornbelt, with the low confirmed in Nebraska and the high in Iowa and Missouri.
Southern Plains:
Ammonia prices were quoted at $620-$675/st FOB Oklahoma production points, with the low reported at Pryor and the high at Verdigris. Sources quoted the latest offers out of Woodward, Okla., at the $650/st FOB level.
South Central:
Ammonia prices were reported at $450/st FOB Midway, Tenn., and $520/st FOB Hopewell, Va., with truck pricing out of Gulf Coast production points quoted in a broad range at $520-$625/st FOB, depending on location.
India:
A lack of reported spot deals left the India ammonia price at the last-done $510/mt CFR. Most purchases are coming from larger buyers under contracts that offer significant discounts from the spot market.
Middle East:
Supply in the Arab Gulf is expected to pick up next week when the Ma’aden plant comes back online. Even with the return of the Saudi ammonia line, the closure of the Salalah plant in Oman for a routine maintenance turnaround will keep supplies from building up. The Omani plant is expected to resume production in mid-November.
Iranian ammonia exports totaled 450,000 mt in January-September, Trade Data Monitor reported,a roughly 17% increase from the year-ago 384,000 mt. India took 87% of the exports with 389,000 mt, followed by Turkey with 60,000 mt. Iran exported 58,000 mt in September, matching its September 2022 total.
Northwest Europe:
The jump in the October Tampa price and the war between Israel and Hamas prompted some industry observers to predict higher prices for second-half October and November. However, there has so far been no rise in natural gas prices in Europe, some pointed out, and pricing jitters appeared to ease by the end of the week.
Sources noted reports of plants in Eastern Europe slowly ramping up production. The current import price of $550-$555/mt CFR gives plenty of headroom above the production cost ex-plant. Besides the slow increase in domestic production, demand is soft, sources said, leaving few drivers for higher prices at this time.
Brazil:
Brazil exports ammonia on an “as-available” basis. September ammonia exports were limited to 20 mt, all to Uruguay, compared to 16,000 mt exported in September 2022. Trade Data Monitor reported January-September exports at 48,000 mt, down 27% from the 66,000 mt shipped through the same period of 2022.
Imports totaled 224,000 mt through the first three quarters of the year, down 30% from the 319,000 mt received in January-September 2022. Trinidad and Tobago remained the top supplier with 203,000 mt. September imports were 15,000 mt, against zero imports in September 2022.