U.S. Gulf/Tampa: Last week Mosaic bought a 23,000 mt cargo from Sabic for delivery to the U.S. Gulf at $400/mt CFR, down some $72/mt from the business concluded with Yara for February. The cargo is slated to load in February and be delivered in March. While some nattered over whether or not this was the true market, others said it is reality – regardless of whether it hits the shore in March or February, for all practical purposes it is the market.
In the meantime, numbers for recent NOLA barges sales have finally hit the market, with sources saying trades have occurred within the $430-$470/st FOB range for February loading.
Eastern Cornbelt: Anhydrous ammonia pricing in Eastern Canada was unchanged at $650-$670/st FOB terminals.
Western Cornbelt: Sources pegged the prompt ammonia market in the $600-$645/st FOB range in the Western Cornbelt in early February, with the upper end in Missouri and the low reported out of terminals in both Nebraska and Iowa on a spot basis.
California: The anhydrous ammonia market had reportedly slipped to $775/st truck-DEL in California, down roughly $50/st from last report. Aqua ammonia was referenced at the $206/st FOB level in the state.
Pacific Northwest: The anhydrous ammonia market in the Pacific Northwest was described as bearish. Dealer reference levels were holding at the $690/st DEL level in the region, but there was little new business to test the market.
Western Canada: The anhydrous ammonia market in Western Canada remained at $1,001-$1,010/mt DEL in Manitoba, $1,010-$1,019/mt DEL in Saskatchewan, and $1,019-$1,045/mt DEL in Alberta.
Middle East: Arab Gulf sources confirm a sale to Mosaic for the U.S. for March delivery of $400/mt CFR. The estimated netback keeps the price in the low $300s/mt FOB, said one source.
Sources say the lack of major interest from India and Southeast Asian buyers is putting pressure on several producers. While most of the ammonia moving out of the region is being done under contracts, sources say these shipments are not enough to match factory output.
At this point, said one trader, it does not appear as if any of the producers are ready to step back production to ease the supply side pressure.
Reports of loading difficulties in Yuzhnyy because of ice and bad weather prompted one trader to comment that the Arab Gulf suppliers might start receiving some additional spot material requests.
Black Sea: Bad weather and ice floes caused problems with loadings last week. The port was closed a couple of days last week. Sources say if the weather does not let up, additional closings may be necessary.
Limited cargoes of ammonia have been flowing from Yuzhnyy because of the global price and rising cost of natural gas.
The OPZ plant will remain shuttered until the market price improves, say Asian sources.
Without any major new sales to set a price range, sources say the market remains in the $390s/mt FOB.
Australia: Despite statements in late January that the Orica ammonia operation would remain offline for several more weeks, the company announced last week that it was slowly bringing the plant back up. In an announcement issued Feb. 5, the company said it was slowly restarting its Kooragang Island plant. “The restart of a plant such as this is complicated and must be done cautiously,” said Orica’s CEO Graeme Liebelt. “We will not compromise on this restart, and if we need to again pause in order to assure its safety, we will do so. Our products are crucial to industries such as mining and electricity generation in New South Wales, and we are an important local emplo