US Gulf/Tampa:
The Tampa ammonia price for November settled at $625/mt CFR, up $50/mt – or 8.7% – from October’s $575/mt CFR, and the highest level since February’s $790/mt CFR price. The escalating conflict in the Middle East, as well as firming ammonia prices in Europe and India, added fuel to expectations of an increase.
NOLA barge prices also adjusted to reflect a Tampa equivalent, strengthening to $569/st FOB from the prior $522-$526/st FOB range.
Eastern Cornbelt:
Ammonia was unchanged at $725-$750/st FOB terminals in the Eastern Cornbelt, depending on location and producer. Sources said the arrival of colder temperatures after this week’s rains should push fall ammonia application into high gear across the region.
Western Cornbelt:
Ammonia remained at $715-$725/st FOB in the Western Cornbelt, with the low reported in Nebraska and the high in Iowa and Missouri.
Northern Plains:
Ammonia in the Northern Plains edged up to $750-$775/st FOB regional terminals, up from the prior $725/st FOB level, based on the latest producer postings and netbacks on estimated delivered prices in the low- to mid-$800s/st.
China:
Ammonia exports from China totaled 161,000 mt in January-September, Trade Data Monitor reported,a 51% increase from the year-ago 105,000 mt. The strong start to 2023 followed a healthy final quarter of 2022, with high prices in Southeast Asia and low domestic demand allowing China to increase exports during the period.
Due to a recent downshift in international pricing and increased demand from domestic users, exports have slackened, however. First-quarter exports of 126,000 mt were followed by a combined 34,000 mt in the second and third quarters. September 2023 exports were 8,000 mt, down 86% from the 58,000 mt reported in September 2022.
Conversely, imports increased as domestic demand picked up. January-September receipts were reported at 591,000 mt, a 203% increase from 195,000 mt in the prior-year period. September imports stood at 34,000 mt, up 74% from 19,000 mt in September 2022.