US Gulf/Tampa:
Tampa ammonia was unchanged at $625/mt CFR for December, with NOLA pricing indications remaining at a Tampa equivalent.
Eastern Cornbelt:
Although some industry sources expected an ammonia reset during the week from the first round of spring prepay offers, no programs were announced as the week came to a close, leaving the last prompt spot business unchanged at $725-$750/st FOB regional terminals. The expectation now is for spring prepay prices to be launched at mid-month.
Western Cornbelt:
The ammonia market remained at $715-$725/st FOB in the Western Cornbelt, with the low in Nebraska and the high in Iowa and Missouri. With fall application still underway in parts of the region, no spring prepay programs were launched in early December. Sources said they expect the initial offers to appear in mid-December, however.
Northern Plains:
Ammonia in the Northern Plains slipped to $650/st FOB regional terminals for the last prompt fall business, down from the prior $750-$775/st FOB level, with delivered tons reportedly dropping to the $700-$750/st level from the previous $825-$850/st DEL. Sources reported a heavy fall ammonia run in the region, thanks to mild fall temperatures in November.
The first spring prepay ammonia offers were expected to be announced late this week or early next week, sources said.
Middle East:
While no new spot deals were reported from the Middle East, sources pegged discussions for new business at $480-$500/mt FOB, a sizeable drop from the previous $550/mt FOB done more than one month ago.
Contract business has dominated the area due to weak demand from spot buyers. Even with softening price ideas, sales are rare. Ongoing production and limited demand are expected to keep prices under pressure.
Iran exported 550,000 mt of ammonia in January-November, Trade Data Monitor reported,up 12% from the 490,000 mt shipped through the first 11 months of 2022. November exports were 39,000 mt, down 46% from 71,000 mt in November 2022. India was the month’s largest buyer, taking 37,000 mt.
Northwest Europe:
The production cost of ammonia in Northwest Europe has reportedly settled at $500/mt ex-plant, roughly equating to $600-$610/mt CFR at terminals. No new deals were reported, however, as most business in the area was for contracted material rather than spot.
Brazil:
Trade Data Monitor reported January-November ammonia imports of 281,000 mt, a 27% decline from the year-ago 387,000 mt. January-November exports were 48,000 mt, off from the 81,000 mt shipped in January-November 2022.
Brazil became an occasional exporter of ammonia in 2022, as the country’s supply fluctuates with its industrial needs. One cargo of Brazilian ammonia is typically offered on the global market every 2-3 months. While the country sent out 40 mt in November, Brazil exported 15,000 mt in November 2022.
Imports were noted at 35,000 mt in November. The US supplied 21,000 mt for the month, followed by Trinidad and Tobago with 14,000 mt.
Black Sea:
Uralchem is no longer confident it will have the ammonia pipeline into the new port facilities at Taman completed in time, sources said. The company also downgraded the expected capacity of both the pipeline and port operations, from 1 million mt/y to 500,000 mt/y through 2024 and into 2025.
The port, located in the eastern Black Sea, is being built up to replace the facilities in Ukraine that are now inaccessible to Russian ammonia producers. The pipeline into Ukraine and the Odessa port facilities were closed due to the war in Ukraine, halting ammonia shipments.