US Gulf/Tampa:
Tampa ammonia was steady at January’s $525/mt CFR contract, $100/mt below the December Tampa price. While no indication was reported for February pricing, sources noted a significant drop in inland terminal offers for winter fill tons during the week.
US Imports:
November ammonia imports were 170,451 st, according to US Census Bureau data, down 2.7% from the year-ago 175,150 st. July-November volumes totaled 857,156 st, a 9.8% decline from 950,493 st in the prior year.
Canada sent 476,412 st to the US in the July-November fertilizer year-to-date, Trinidad and Tobago shipped 329,488 st, and Saudi Arabia added 22,091 st.
US Exports:
Ammonia exports softened 15.1% in November, to 91,019 st from 107,196 st in November 2022. July-November exports slipped 5.3%, to 558,832 st from the year-ago 589,964 st.
Morocco was the top export destination for July-November with 146,052 st, followed by Norway with 114,690 st. Chile moved into third place with 55,557 st, ahead of 49,414 st to the Netherlands.
Eastern Cornbelt:
Producers were reportedly lowering prices on January-February ammonia fill tons to generate some business in a very slow market. Reports of fill offers in the $550-$600/st FOB range were heard in Illinois and Indiana at midweek, depending on location, with spring prepay prices remaining in the $625-$650/st FOB range.
“The falling market continues to scare people off,” said one contact. “Any reasonable bid will probably be considered right now.”
“Most retailers don’t feel a sense of urgency to get covered in this environment,” added another regional source.
Western Cornbelt:
Sources reported lower ammonia prices in the region, with January-February fill tons dropping to $535-$585/st FOB in Iowa and Nebraska, depending on location. Delivered fill pricing was pegged at $580-$585/st in Iowa during the week, while spring prepay reference prices remained at $625-$645/st FOB in Iowa and Nebraska.
Southern Plains:
Ammonia was falling in the Southern Plains, with January-February fill tons quoted at $535-$580/st FOB terminals in Oklahoma and Kansas, down from reference levels posted at $600-$620/st FOB in mid-December. Spring prepay offers remained as high as $620-$625/st FOB in the region, though sources said no business was taking place at those levels.
South Central:
The ammonia market in the South Central region was pegged at $475-$500/st FOB terminals and Gulf Coast production points in the wake of the $100/mt drop in Tampa ammonia for January, down from December’s $570-$625/st FOB range in the region.
Middle East:
Sources reported no new spot deals from the Middle East during the week. Producers admit there will be spot tons available for February and March orders, though sources questioned the strength of demand.
Brazil:
Brazil closed out 2023 with ammonia imports and exports down about one-third from the previous year, according to Trade Data Monitor.
Exports totaled 62,000 mt for the year, off 37% from the year-ago 99,000 mt. The US led buyers with 18,000 mt, South Africa took 15,000 mt, and Norway received 14,000 mt. December exports of 14,000 mt, all to Norway, were 16% below the 18,000 mt shipped in December 2022.
Brazil imported 298,000 mt of ammonia in 2023,down 33% from the 445,000 mt received in 2022. December exports were 17,000 mt, off sharply from 58,000 mt in December 2022, with Trinidad and Tobago sending the entire amount.