US Gulf/Tampa:
The Tampa ammonia price for March was settled at $445/mt CFR, unchanged from the February contract. While lower natural gas prices have continued to pressure some international markets, the January polar vortex in the US reportedly resulted in the loss of up to 300,000 st of domestic production.
Eastern Cornbelt:
No actual ammonia movement was confirmed in the Eastern Cornbelt during the week, but sources said the mild weather was tempting some locations to consider an early start to preplant applications. The increase in interest, along with some lost production during the January cold spell and the resulting delays in positioning tons, contributed to higher prices during the week.
“The big fall ammonia application and early start now is tugging on the system, trucks are out of position and a few terminals in the Eastern Cornbelt are without inventory,” said one regional contact. “There have been heavy ammonia exports the last two months and the cold weather knocked a few production plants offline in January in the Southern Plains.”
Prompt ammonia prices jumped to $575-$590/st FOB terminals in Illinois and Indiana, up from a recent low of $550/st FOB, while 2Q offers reportedly firmed to $590-$625/st FOB in the region, depending on location. Michigan sources continued to quote Courtright, Ont., offers at $535/st FOB for prompt and $610/st FOB for prepay, however.
Western Cornbelt:
With ammonia movement ramping up in western Missouri and just starting in Iowa, prompt prices moved up during the week, to $575/st FOB Nebraska and Iowa terminals from the prior week’s low of $550/st FOB. Spring prices were quoted at $600-$615/st FOB in the region, depending on location.
Southern Plains:
Stronger ammonia prices were reported in the Southern Plains in late February as near-term availability remains limited. The early application season has contributed to the tight market, but sources said the greater impact came from production hiccups and lost capacity caused by the mid-January polar vortex.
Prompt ammonia offers firmed to $540-$560/st FOB terminals and production points in the Southern Plains, up from the prior $460-$520/st FOB range, with the low reported at Woodward, Okla. Several production sites were either sold out or not offering tons in late February, however. Sources said no tons are currently being offered at Pryor or Verdigris, Okla.
South Central:
While truck pricing for ammonia remained at a low of $400-$410/st FOB Gulf Coast production points, inland terminal prices were starting to firm based on limited offers and tight supply. Sources quoted a broad range at $450-$550/st FOB for any available offers, with the high reported at Cherokee, Ala.
Middle East:
Talks are underway for spot cargoes shipping from the Middle East in March-April, sources said. The deals should be closed in the next couple of weeks, just in time for Ramadan, when many offices cut back on staff or close entirely. Traders noted price expectations for the cargoes at a ceiling of $300/mt FOB.
The softening comes as ammonia prices are easing internationally and product reserves are building in producer storage facilities.
North Africa:
EuroChem sold a cargo of Indonesian ammonia to OCP/Morocco at a reported price of $410/mt CFR. Once the load is discharged, sources said the vessel will continue to the Baltic Sea under a new lease with EuroChem.
Northwest Europe:
Rumors of a possible rollover in the Tampa ammonia price for March, combined with the reported EuroChem sale to OCP/Morocco, indicate that imported ammonia prices should be softening in Northwest Europe, area sources said.
No new spot deals were reported during the week, leaving the market at $460-$480/mt CFR. Industry watchers expect to see prices at $450/mt CFR and below for end-March arrivals, however.
Downward pressure continues to build from the recent illiquidity and a further reduction in natural gas prices, with the TTF slipping lower at midweek to €23/MWh, or around $7/mmbtu. As downstream demand remains muted ahead of what some fear may be a delayed spring season in Europe, importers are not motivated to purchase deepwater ammonia until CFR offers fall closer to domestic production costs.
After the vessel carrying Indonesian ammonia drops off its load to OCP/Morocco, sources said the ship will travel to the Baltic Sea, where EuroChem will most likely put the ship to work moving ammonia out of Russia’s makeshift terminal near St. Petersburg.
Southeast Asia:
Sources reported widely variable pricing in the Southeast Asian spot ammonia market during the week. While players put the current price at $330-$350/mt FOB, a small deal from Indonesia to a regional buyer was pegged at $380/mt FOB. At the same time, the netback from a EuroChem sale of Indonesian product to Morocco was significantly lower, at $300/mt FOB.
South Korea:
South Korea remains a bellwether for trends in the market. While never a price mover, the prices and imports in the Korean peninsula help market watchers assess the state of the regional market, sources said.
South Korea imported 126,000 mt of ammonia in January, according to Trade Data Monitor,a 22% increase from the year-ago 103,000 mt. Saudi Arabia accounted for 57% of the month’s imports with 72,000 mt, followed by 54,000 mt from Indonesia.