US Gulf/Tampa:
Several market sources said Tampa ammonia for September will likely see an increase from August’s $475/mt CFR, fueled by firming international and domestic prices. The looming rail strike in Canada, and the length of any work stoppage should an agreement fail to be reached, was also impacting the North American market.
Recent sales out of Trinidad to buyers in Northwest Europe were confirmed in the $550-$555/mt CFR range for approximately 25,000 mt scheduled for delivery in first-half September.
US Imports:
Ammonia imports fell 5.2% for the July-June 2023/24 fertilizer year, according to US Census Bureau data, to 2.32 million st from 2.45 st in the prior year. June imports moved down 39.8%, to 129,557 st from the year-ago 215,157 st.
Canada sent 1.20 million st to the US for the fertilizer year, Trinidad and Tobago shipped 972,964 st, and Algeria sent 99,200 st.
US Exports:
Ammonia exports slipped 13.5% in July-June, to 1.17 million st from the year-ago 1.35 million st. June cargoes were noted at 146,302 st, however, a 76.1% increase from the 83,091 st reported one year earlier.
Morocco took 380,850 st of ammonia in July-June, followed by Norway with 239,984 st. Chile received 99,650 st, and Mexico purchased 96,631 st.
Eastern Cornbelt:
Ammonia firmed to $535-$560/st FOB in the Eastern Cornbelt, depending on location and time of the week, up from last week’s $520-$550/st FOB, with sources citing the looming rail strike in Canada as a possible driver of the increase.
CF and Koch ammonia terminals in Illinois and Indiana reportedly moved to the $545/st FOB level or higher on Aug. 15 after reports of $535/st FOB earlier in the week, while offers at East Dubuque, Ill., firmed to $560/st FOB from the prior $550/st FOB level.
Western Cornbelt:
Ammonia prices in the Western Cornbelt strengthened to $545-$560/st FOB during the week, up from last week’s $520-$550/st FOB range. Prices also moved up in the Southern Plains, with the latest offers firming to $505-$515/st FOB Oklahoma production points and $510/st FOB Coffeyville, Kan.
California:
Ammonia reference prices in California were steady at $680/st DEL for anhydrous and $187-$197/st FOB for aqua ammonia.
Pacific Northwest:
Ammonia prices dropped to $545/st FOB terminals for anhydrous and $145/st FOB for aqua ammonia in the Pacific Northwest. No current delivered prices were confirmed in mid-August. Sources said they expect higher postings soon, however, with some producers withholding offers until the Canadian rail strike is resolved.
Western Canada:
Ammonia remained at C$775/mt FOB Medicine Hat, Alta., for October-November offers, with delivered fall tons in Western Canada slipping to C$875-$900/mt from earlier offers in the C$900-$910/mt DEL range.
Northwest Europe:
With natural gas firmly above $11.5/MMBtu in Europe and supply tight, the latest ammonia business ex-Algeria reportedly reflects a $550-$560/mt CFR Northwest Europe price, up from the prior $510-$550/mt range. Recent sales by Nutrien out of Trinidad to buyers in Northwest Europe were also confirmed in the $550-$555/mt CFR range at midweek.
Some players expressed doubt that the market’s rapid price development can be repeated and sustained, however, pointing to a depressed downstream nitrates market.
Southeast Asia:
Ammonia availability was improving in the region, with both Indonesia and Malaysia reported to have export capacity with price ideas in the $380s/mt FOB. No spot business has yet concluded, however, leaving prices stable at $350-$400/mt FOB.