US Gulf/Tampa:
No news was reported regarding the Tampa ammonia settlement for September, though sources continue to expect an increase from the August price of $475/mt CFR.
Eastern Cornbelt:
Ammonia firmed to $545-$560/st FOB in the Eastern Cornbelt, depending on location, up from last week’s low of $535/st FOB.
Western Cornbelt:
Ammonia pricing remained at $545-$560/st FOB in the Western Cornbelt, unchanged from last week.
Northern Plains:
Prompt and fall pricing for ammonia was quoted in the $535-$545/st FOB range in the Northern Plains. The last confirmed offers for delivered ammonia remained at $530-$550/st in the region, depending on location and supplier.
“Most retailers are full and are reluctant to buy additional prepay for fall until the farmer starts buying,” said one regional contact. “Wheat in the Pacific Northwest and Montana is about to start, and farmers are starting to buy for September application.”
Northwest Europe:
No further ammonia spot deals were reported since last week’s Trinidad cargo into Northwest Europe, leaving prices unchanged at $550-$560/mt CFR. Natural gas prices, which spiked on news of Ukraine’s incursion into Russian territory, have corrected with the TTF forward month now 5% lower than the prior week, at just below $11/MMBtu.
Southeast Asia:
No fresh spot ammonia business was reported in the region, despite improved supply in both Indonesia and Malaysia. Price ideas from producers are currently in the $360-$380/mt FOB range.
India:
No new spot deals have been reported since FACT scrapped its tender earlier this month, leaving the public price at $397/mt CFR.
Middle East:
Arab Gulf producers are slowly rebuilding their ammonia reserves. For now, producers are reportedly claiming to be sold out through September, leaving no tonnage available for the limited spot market.
Any discussions seem to be focused in the low-$350s/mt FOB, sources said, a slight dip from recent talks noted up to $360/mt FOB.
The Egyptian government reported that MOPCO has produced 138% of its targeted ammonia output for the year. The accomplishment came despite production cutbacks forced by limited natural gas supplies.
China:
While China is primarily an ammonia importer, the country will also act as a major regional ammonia exporter when prices are right and when the country is oversupplied. However, neither prices nor supplies have allowed for serious exports this year.
July ammonia exports were reported at 9,400 mt, according to Trade Data Monitor, unchanged from July 2023. January-July exports were noted at 41,000 mt, however, down 71% from the year-ago 144,000 mt, with Vietnam taking 36,000 mt.
January-July imports were 313,000 mt, about 30% below the 449,000 mt received through the first seven months of 2023. Indonesia sent 188,000 mt and Saudi Arabia shipped 67,000 mt. July imports of 22,000 mt were off from the 59,000 mt received in July 2023.
South Korea:
South Korea imported 714,000 mt of ammonia through the first seven months of 2024, Trade Data Monitor reported, up 10% from the 649,000 mt received one year earlier. Saudi Arabia sent 308,000 mt, followed by Indonesia with 298,000 mt. July imports stood at 116,000 mt, a 28% jump from the 91,000 mt received in the previous July.