U.S. Gulf/Tampa: The markets were quiet last week, with most of the attention to be focused on the upcoming Tampa business for April, sources said. Some contacts speculated that strengthening Black Sea ammonia might mean higher numbers for Tampa come April. In the meantime, there was speculation of some new barge business being worked in NOLA.
U.S. imports were off 7 percent in January, to 561,044 st from the year-ago 606,293 st. This matches the July-January drop as well – down 7 percent – to 4.2 million st from 4.5 million st.
Eastern Cornbelt: Sources said warm weather ushered in a flurry of ammonia activity in Indiana at mid-month. Sources tagged the prompt ammonia market at $630-$640/st FOB terminals in Illinois and Indiana, up from lows that had reportedly touched the $625/st FOB mark on a spot basis earlier in the month. Ammonia applications in the Illinois market have been steady since February, with some terminals reportedly out of open market spot tons last week.
Western Cornbelt: Sources pegged the anhydrous ammonia market in a broad range at $575-$610/st FOB Western Cornbelt terminals, down slightly from last report. The low end of the range was reported out of Nebraska terminals, with Iowa terminals quoted in the $590-$610/st FOB range, depending on location. Delivered ammonia in central Missouri was pegged at $620-$625/st from southern production points.
One Missouri source said ammonia movement had been stalled by wet conditions in his location, but he expected ammonia rigs to be rolling again by the weekend. Other locations reported steady fieldwork and a taste of summer weather last week. Record high temperatures on March 14 included 86 degrees in St. Louis, Mo., and 81 in Des Moines, Iowa.
Southern Plains: The ammonia market remained at $550-$570/st FOB in the Southern Plains, with the low out of regional production points and the upper end out of Kansas pipeline terminals. Sources described the market as quiet but with steady movement, particularly in western Kansas. One source said some pipeline suppliers were limiting spot sales in Kansas last week in order to honor contract tons being pulled at more northerly locations on the pipe.
A fair amount of preplant fertilizer work has been done on corn ground in the region, and one Kansas source said growers in his area will be planting by the third week of March if soil conditions are dry enough. A northern Texas contact said field conditions there remain critically dry, and the combination of 80-degree days and strong winds is not improving matters.
South Central: Ammonia pricing to the dealer was pegged at $605-$610/st FOB Memphis. Sources reported that prepay ammonia sales out of the Henderson, Ky., market had been done for as high as $675/st FOB in recent weeks, but spot and prepay tons were reportedly sold out there last week.
Black Sea: Reports are circulating that Koch cleared a cargo out of Yuzhnyy at $450/mt FOB. This represents a major jump in the Yuzhnyy price, and could signal a return of production by some of the major players in the area.
Several plants in the area have been closed for some time because of a soft international ammonia market and rising natural gas costs.
The last bit of known business in the area topped off at $400/mt FOB. The tons purchased are expected to head to the U.S. One trader noted that Tampa was the most likely destination.
If the tons go to Tampa, the delivered price could range from $520-$550/mt CFR.
For now, if the new price level holds, sources say the ammonia market could be on track for a serious rebound.
Middle East: The flow of ammonia out of the region is mostly tied to contracts. Sources say it had be