CF Industries Holdings Inc., Nutrien Ltd., and The Mosaic Co. are all expected to have stellar adjusted EBITDA for the year-ending Dec. 31, 2022, versus 2021 figures, according to the Bloomberg Consensus, the average estimate from major analysts. The annual figure for CF is expected to double, with fourth-quarter up 10%.
Mosaic’s full-year adjusted EBITDA is estimated to be up 78% from 2021, while fourth-quarter results are expected to be flat with year-ago levels. Nutrien results are seen as being up 77% versus 2021, with the fourth-quarter level with year-ago.
Many analysts are keeping a close watch on fourth-quarter volumes. CF is expected to see a fourth-quarter drop in ammonia and UAN volumes, according to the analysts, with other products flat to up slightly. On the wholesale level, they project Nutrien will report drops in both potash and phosphate volumes, with an overall uptick in nitrogen. They also see a potash and phosphate drop for Mosaic with Mosaic Fertilizantes level with year-ago volumes.
CF and Nutrien will report results after market close on Feb. 15, with Mosaic’s out on Feb. 22.
| CF | 4Q-22 | 4Q-21 | 2022 | 2021 |
| Adj. EBITDA | 1.39 | 1.26 | 5.96 | 2.74 |
| Revenues | 2.85 | 2.54 | 11.4 | 6.54 |
| Net Income | .828 | .705 | 3.37 | .917 |
| Sales Volumes | ||||
| Ammonia | 1.07 | 1.18 | 3.47 | 3.6 |
| Granular Urea | 1.02 | 1.02 | 4.56 | 4.3 |
| UAN | 1.69 | 1.84 | 6.8 | 6.6 |
| AN | .376 | .374 | 1.62 | 1.72 |
| Other | .581 | .569 | 2.2 | 2.32 |
| Mosaic | 4Q-22 | 4Q-21 | 2022 | 2021 |
| Adj. EBITDA | 1.21 | 1.22 | 6.4 | 3.6 |
| Revenues | 4.24 | 3.84 | 18.9 | 12.3 |
| Net Income | .700 | .665 | 3.85 | 1.63 |
| Sales Volumes | ||||
| Potash | 1.97 | 2.1 | 8.2 | 8.2 |
| Phosphate | 1.65 | 1.8 | 6.63 | 7.7 |
| Mosaic Fertilizantes | 2.3 | 2.3 | 9.22 | 10.1 |
| Nutrien | 4Q-22 | 4Q-21 | 2022 | 2021 |
| Adj. EBITDA | 2.47 | 2.46 | 12.6 | 7.13 |
| Revenues | 7.6 | 7.3 | 37.6 | 27.7 |
| Net Income | 1.36 | 1.21 | 7.84 | 3.18 |
| Sales Volumes – Wholesale | ||||
| Potash | 2.7 | 3.06 | 12.6 | 13.6 |
| Nitrogen | 2.93 | 2.83 | 10.4 | 10.73 |
| Phosphate & AS | .666 | .711 | 2.5 | 2.62 |
*Financials are in
$ billions, volumes in millions of tons.