U.S. Gulf:
NOLA urea markets were a bit wobbly during the week, with sources saying prices topped out at $325/st and gradually sank to the $308-$310/st FOB range. Sources said a huge amount of rain across the heartland quickly put a lid on demand. However, players were optimistic that once dryer weather prevails, demand will return.
The prompt granular range was called $308-$325/st FOB, compared with the week-ago $310-$320/st FOB. Prills were also less robust at $305-$310/st FOB, down from the prior week’s $305-$320/st FOB.
U.S. Imports:
August urea imports were up 7 percent, to 209,267 st from the year-ago 196,490 st. July-August imports were up 10 percent, to 294,559 st from 268,947 st.
U.S. Exports:
August urea exports were up 4 percent, to 165,881 st from the year-ago 159,288 st. July-August exports were off 9 percent, to 337,944 st from 371,441 st.
Eastern Cornbelt:
Granular urea pricing fell in the $350-$360/st FOB range in the Eastern Cornbelt.
Western Cornbelt:
The granular urea market was pegged at $350-$355/st FOB in the Western Cornbelt, with the lower end of the range confirmed at St. Louis and Caruthersville, Mo., and Port Neal, Iowa.
Pricing at St. Paul, Minn., was quoted firmly in the $355-$360/st FOB range for the week, up another $5/st from last report.
Southern Plains:
The urea market was quoted at $350-$355/st FOB Catoosa/Inola, Okla., and up to $360/st FOB Enid, Okla., up another $10/st from the prior week and $20/st higher than late-September pricing levels.
South Central:
The granular urea market was reported at $350-$360/st FOB in the South Central region, with the lower end at Memphis and the upper out of spot Arkansas River terminals. The Convent, La., market was also reported in the $350-$360/st FOB range at midweek.
Southeast:
Granular urea had reported firmed to $365-$370/st FOB port terminals in the Southeast, up a full $25-$30/st from mid-September levels, with the low reported at Wilmington, N.C., and the upper end for import tons at Tampa.
One North Carolina source said he purchased Wilmington tons earlier in October at $355/st FOB and $378/st DEL, but he said the market had firmed since then.
India:
The MMTC tender closed on Oct. 5 with 1.7 million tons offered by 15 companies. The lowest price for the West Coast was $252.88/mt CFR, and for the East Coast at $256/mt CFR.
By Wednesday MMTC had booked just over 560,000 mt, with the bulk of the orders to be delivered to East Coast ports. Just as traders thought the buying was over, MMTC said it was continuing talks with trading houses up to the validity date of Oct. 12. The talks concluded with MMTC picking up an additional 115,000 mt from Midgulf and Swiss Singapore.
MMTC Urea Tender Awards:
West Coast Deliveries
| Company |
Quantity (mt) |
US$/mt |
Source |
| Gavilon |
42,000 |
352.88 CFR |
China |
| Ameropa |
42,000 |
352.88 CFR |
China |
| Muntajat |
40,000 |
340.00 FOB |
Qatar |
| Adnoc |
35,000 |
339.00 FOB |
UAE |
MMTC Urea Tender Awards:
East Coast Deliveries
| Company |
Quantity (mt) |
US$/mt CFR |
Source |
| Keytrade |
42,000 |
356.00 |
China |
| Dreymoor |
31,500 |
356.00 |
China |
| Midgulf |
248,000 |
356.00 |
Egypt-China |
| Swiss Singapore |
75,000 |
356.00 |
Indonesia-China |
| Transglobe |
63,000 |
356.00 |
China |
| Aries |
60,000 |
356.00 |
China |
Sources said even with nearly 780,000 mt already booked for shipment by Nov. 19, India will need another 1.4 million tons to close out the year. Another tender could be called as early as Nov. 20, said traders.
When the next tender comes, sources said India will be facing the same issues it did in the last tender. Iranian material will not be available, leaving the global market tight. Prices are expected to remain firm well into the time the next tender is called. At the same time the rupee continues to weaken against the U.S. Dollar.
The combination of a weak currency, coupled with a tight market that is denominated in a different currency, could lead to India paying much more of its hard-cash reserves than was expected when the budget was written earlier this year.
Pakistan:
The TCP tender for 100,000 mt of urea was slated to open on Oct. 15, but has now been pushed back a week. Sources could not explain why TCP took this action.
Traders speculated that the delay might be because of some paperwork that wasn’t completed. Also under consideration are reports that Pakistan’s hard currency reserves are dangerously low. The ever-higher urea prices could put too much strain on the reserves to cover the called-for tons.
One trader suggested that TCP and its government minders are comparing the cost of importing urea against the cost of purchasing additional natural gas to allow the domestic producers to make up the 100,000 mt shortfall that the tender hoped to plug.
Middle East:
With the sale of two cargoes to India, Arab producers are now expected to be firmer in their demand for $350/mt FOB.
The producers in the UAE and Qatar agreed to prices at $339-$340/mt FOB for their cargoes to MMTC. These sales will give the producers public cover to claim their supplies are limited and that only higher prices can shake loose more spot tons.
Sources said buyers in Brazil and the U.S. should already be feeling the pressure from the producers. Both major buying countries, however, have also shown a willingness to forego large quantities at high prices in favor of a hand-to-mouth purchasing regime.
Such actions have forced down prices in the past. However, this time the Arab producers do not have to look over their shoulders to watch Iran fill orders that normally would have been covered by the Arabs. This absence of Iranian product in the global market, said one trader, added at least $10/mt to the price of urea in an instant. Additional increases came as material availability tightened.
Abu Qir in Egypt will close a selling tender on Oct. 16 for 25,000 mt each of prilled and granular urea. Sources said the producer is hoping to hit $350/mt FOB, but traders doubted the final number will get that high. The last Abu Qir tender closed with granular at $335/mt FOB and prills at $306/mt FOB.
Sources said it would be difficult for any Egyptian material at $350/mt FOB to find a home. The most obvious place to move the product would be southern Europe, but sources said the Europeans have picked up all they need for their fall fill program. The weaker demand in Europe, said one trader, is due to poor weather so far this year. Buyers appear to be unwilling to step out too far in case the winter is also bad.
Indonesia:
Kaltim closed an auction on Oct. 10 for two cargoes at 30,000 mt each of granular urea, and a prilled cargo of 30,000 mt. Swiss Singapore and Liven won the granular cargoes with bids of $321.50/mt FOB. Aries took the prilled cargo at $319.97/mt FOB.
A series of 5,000 mt prilled lots were offered by Pusri on Oct. 9. The auction was for a total of 30,000 mt. In the end, only one buyer met the reserve price of $305/mt FOB. Sources said Pusri is asking traders to resubmit their bids.
Sources said the material sold this week will work in the MMTC/India tender. One suggestion was that once Kaltim confirmed its sale to Swiss Singapore, the trading house upped the amount of urea it was offering to MMTC.
Bangladesh:
The BCIC tender for 100,000 mt of granular urea and 50,000 mt of prilled urea closed on Oct. 8, with only a few offers and prices that confirmed levels more favorable to producers. All offers were to be in lots of 25,000 mt, with delivery in the second half of November.
The lowest price in the granular tender came from Swiss Singapore with Chinese material at $399.00/mt CFR bagged. Only three other companies offered material, each in lots of 25,000 mt. The highest price was $415.40/mt CFR bagged.
Swiss Singapore was also the lowest price in the prilled tender at $377.95/mt CFR bagged. Bulktrade and Aries also participated in this tender, each with offers of 25,000 mt.
BCIC Granular Urea Tender for 100,000 mt
| Offering Company |
Quantity (mt) |
US$/mt CFR bagged |
Source |
| Swiss Singapore |
25,000 |
399.00 |
China |
| Dragon Asia |
25,000 |
400.74 |
China |
| Aries |
25,000 |
414.79 |
China |
| Bulktrade |
25,000 |
415.40 |
China-Indonesia |
BCIC Granular Prilled Tender for 50,000 mt
| Offering Company |
Quantity (mt) |
US$/mt CFR bagged |
Source |
| Swiss Singapore |
25,000 |
377.95 |
China |
| Bulktrade |
25,000 |
414.40 |
China |
| Aries |
25,000 |
416.79 |
China |
As expected, Chinese urea dominated the tender. Only Bulktrade offered Indonesian material as an option in its granular offer. The cost to bag, ship, insure, and make a profit on the deal put the Swiss Singapore granular netback to China at $350/mt FOB. The prills came in around $325-$330/mt FOB.
As Green Markets went to press BCIC had not issued any awards in this tender. In the past, BCIC just worked its way down the list of offers, from low to high, until it reached the tonnage it desired. This time, however, with only four companies offering, the range in prices is much larger than in previous tenders for similar quantities.
China:
Chinese urea producers came out winners in two tenders. The netbacks on the offers in the MMTC/India tender are in the upper-$330s/mt FOB. The Bangladesh tender offered better raw numbers, with granular coming in at $350/mt FOB and prills near $330/mt FOB. Sources said the package costs may be higher – especially considering financing – than the traditional $50/mt used to estimate netbacks to China.
While producers were holding out for $350/mt FOB to remain at parity with the price expected from Arab Gulf producers, they did settle for the upper-$330s/mt FOB for both prilled and granular urea. Sources were surprised to see Chinese granular offered in the MMTC tender. The Chinese granular size reportedly does not meet the Indian requirement of 2-4 mm. No one accepted the idea that a Chinese granular producer will make a special run to accommodate the Indian standard.
Soon after the MMTC awards were announced, Chinese producers stepped up their demands. Sources said inquiries had producers quoting $340/mt FOB for granular and $335/mt FOB for prills, but with implications that the price will be going up.
Producers have other arguments for higher prices, besides the strong global urea market. Sources said national production is still near 50 percent of capacity. Efforts to bring up production to meet the international demand have come up against the government’s active campaign to reduce pollution.
At the same time, China is about to enter its fill program. Sources said urea demand is strong enough that producers don’t need the global market to make a profit.