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OCI-Produced Fertilizer Volumes up 13.3 percent in 1Q, Traded off 25 percent

OCI NV reports that its first-quarter own-produced fertilizer volumes were up 13.3 percent to 1.3 million from the year-ago 1.15 million mt. However, the company said consolidated first-quarter revenues were approximately the same as last year as the increased fertilizer production was offset by lower margin third-party traded volumes, which were off 25 percent to 348,300 mt from 464,500 mt, as well as by lower prices.

OCI said adjusted EBITDA was slightly lower than year-ago levels, reflecting higher natural gas costs and start-up costs for the Iowa Fertilizer Co. plant. In the U.S. Henry Hub spot gas prices increased to $3.00/mmBtu, up from $2.00/mmBtu, while the Europe TFF spot gas prices increased to $5.8/mmBtu from $4.1/mmBtu.

OCI reported higher fertilizer utilization rates in North Africa and a return to normalized production in The Netherlands after a year-ago outage prompted by a fire (GM March 18, 2016), which particularly impacted calcium ammonium nitrate production. Ammonia volumes were up at Sorfert in Algeria and are expected to resume at normal levels at Egypt Basic Industries (EBIC) in July once the company regains access to its export jetty in June.

Urea was at full rates at Egyptian Fertilizers Co. and OCI said it is encouraged by new gas production coming on line in the country as well as new discoveries.

Company-produced fertilizer volumes are expected to increase in the second quarter as they will include Iowa Fertilizer Co. plant in Wever, Iowa, which opened in April (GM April 21, p. 1). OCI says that plant is now producing and selling ammonia and downstream products.

As for third-party traded fertilizer, ammonium sulfate volumes were down 49 percent to 205,600 mt from the year-ago 405,200 mt. UAN saw a boost at 82,200 mt, up from 4,000 mt.

As for market conditions, OCI cited the volatile urea market and the late application seasons in the U.S. and Europe, lower import demand from India and the reconciliation of additional capacity. It said it believes current low prices are not sustainable and below break-even costs of marginal producers in China and elsewhere.

In the medium term, OCI believes the supply-demand balance to be more positive with global urea expansions slowing to below trend demand growth over at least the next four years, even before taking into account Chinese capacity closures. It believes potential rebounds in Chinese urea exports to be capped by environmental curtailments and increased focus on profitability of the industry.

In the Industrial Chemicals, OCI says its Natgasoline methanol project in Texas was 81.1 percent complete at the end of the March and the company’s board has agreed to refurbish and restart the second methanol plant at BioMCN in The Netherlands with this expected to add another 430,000 mt/y.

Overall, OCI-produced volumes, both fertilizer and industrial chemicals, were up 12 percent during the quarter.

Product Sales Volumes (000 mt)

Own Product 1Q-17 1Q-16
Ammonia 401.8 327.7
Urea 569.9 580.2
CAN 306.8 92.5
UAN 25.6 150.4
Total 1,304.1 1,150.8

Traded Third Party Sales

  Volumes
Ammonia 56.3 55.3
Urea 4.2
UAN 82.2 4.0
AS 205.6 405.2
Total 348.3 464.5
Total Fertilizer 1,652.4 1,615.3
Total Industrial 357.2 332.1
Total 2,009.3 1,947.4

Uralkali Says Ust-Yaiva Mine on Track

Berezniki—Uralkali says work at its Ust-Yaiva mine development is on schedule, with first production planned for 2020, according to a Bloomberg report, citing a company statement. Uralkali expects the entire project, including the processing plant, will be on-line after 2022, with a capacity of 2.5 million mt/y.

Specialty Ferts in Focus at BMO Conference

With major crop nutrient prices still at record lows, specialty value fertilizers, micronutrients, and growth in key markets such as Brazil were themes across multiple presentations at the 12th annual BMO Farm to Market conference, which took place this week in New York.

Major fertilizer producers also remained generally optimistic about a near- to medium-term turnaround in the market, but with differing views on major commodities.

CF Industries remains positive on the market, and continues to see current low pricing as unsustainable, particularly with regard to urea. The company is preparing for market impacts from new domestic capacity, but touted its ability to switch from urea to UAN and its access to potentially higher prices in the global markets. CF noted that China will always be important, even though its weight on the global export market has been reduced.

Both Agrium and PotashCorp reported that their merger remains on track. Retail distribution, low cost production and synergies, and a strong balance sheet were among the highlighted bullet points.

Agrium was particularly bullish on its nitrogen position, highlighting the company’s facility locations and its exposure to the Pacific Northwest price premium. Agrium said it sees the nitrogen market bottoming in 2017. The company also highlighted its lowered position on the potash cost curve, with its ramped-up production at Vanscoy and reduced CAPEX. Agrium said it is still expanding its retail network and seeking to add locations and increase market share.

PotashCorp noted global inventory drawdowns against a backdrop of new capacity ramp-ups and strong demand for potash markets this year. The company said it anticipates reasonably balanced potash markets in the medium term and the potential for deficit after 2021. In the nitrogen market, PotashCorp highlighted the difficulties the current market faces but remains more bullish for 2018 and beyond.

Eurochem highlighted the current ramp-up schedule of their highly anticipated potash mines, with the first tons expected in late 2017 and production ramping up to 2025. The company said it remains mindful of market impacts as it ramps up capacity. Eurochem also highlighted its specialty product portfolio and anticipated ammonia self-sufficiency in the near-term. Eurochem reiterated its current focus on its potash expansion and said it will evaluate other potential projects down the line.

Compass Minerals noted strong uptake of micronutrient products through their PDQ division, as well as continued demand for its specialty products and SOP in North America. Other presenters with developing specialty fertilizers included Sirius Minerals and Anuvia.

Israel Chemicals (ICL) highlighted its high quality asset base and movement toward specialty with new time release and polysulfate products. The company noted the potential to migrate its China phosphate joint venture to specialty products as well. ICL said it remains committed to cost improvement of assets, with Spanish potash capacity remaining a large focus as well as its migration away from MOP in the U.K. The company said it is also interested in bolt-on acquisitions for specialty fertilizer players in the $100-$150 million range.

K+S reiterated that its new Legacy mine in Saskatchewan is now open, with the first product expected by the end of June and production targets remaining at 0.5-0.7 million mt for 2017. With the Legacy investment now over, the company is aiming to release “Shaping 2030” this fall to promote future strategy. K+S downplayed any risk to North American storage capacity, citing the strength of its distribution channel partner, Koch Fertilizer LLC. The company said it would also be willing, post full ramp up of its Canadian capacity, to curtail on the supply side in Germany.

Other trends discussed at the conference, particularly at the farm level, included concerns about immigration and trade patterns with any changes in NAFTA. Labor concerns were particularly worrisome for several of the presenters with regard to specialty crops.

Transportation

U.S. Gulf: High-water conditions slowed transits in the Gulf shipping region last week. The Baton Rouge, La., gauge was predicted to return to action stage on May 3-4, with forecasts calling for a 31.2-foot peak on May 7-8.

Shippers reported Industrial Lock delays in the 14-20 hour range, while Algiers Lock waits were called 6-7 hours. Port Allen Lock wait times ran up to five hours, and Bayou Sorrel Lock passage was quoted at four hours.

Extended delays continued at Brazos Lock, as fast flows limited lockings to one loaded barge or two empty barges per pass. Sources counted 18 vessels waiting to lock on April 25, although the queue fell to eight boats on April 26. Shippers estimated delays at 2-4 days.

Contractor activity underway through May 31 at Brazos Floodgates disallowed navigation between 7:00 a.m. and 5:00 p.m., Monday through Friday. Dredging at Miles 395-400 in the West Canal will slow transits until further notice, sources said. Vessels were required to contact the dredge to obtain passing instructions.

Harvey Lock will be closed Aug. 1 through Sept. 30 for maintenance and repairs, leaving Algiers Lock as an alternate route. Delays are expected.

Mississippi River: Rains forecast for the week ahead were predicted to swell already-elevated levels on the Upper Mississippi River, prompting both pickup and delivery delays. The Cape Girardeau, Mo., gauge continued to hover beneath the 29-foot action stage on April 26, showing 27.92-foot depths.

High-horsepower tows were capped at 25 barges last week, leading to 2-3 day delays. Lock 13 was scheduled to shut down on April 25-28, but the lock will reopen for 12 hours starting at 7:00 p.m. on April 26. The Lock 15 auxiliary chamber is closed through Aug. 3.

High flows continued to prompt reductions on southbound tows below Cairo, Ill. Tow lengths were slashed by 5-10 barges, leading to 2-3 day delays. Shippers expected rising river levels to trigger further navigation restrictions in the week ahead.

Mel Price Lock reported delays of up to six hours on April 24-25. Lock 27 waits were called 3-4 hours.

Illinois River: Beardstown, Ill., levels continued to linger above the 14-foot flood stage on April 26, with depths reported at 16.4 feet and falling. Sources expected pickup and drop-off delays as a result of the flooding.

Marseilles Lock waits were quoted at 5-8 hours last week, while Starved Rock Lock experienced scattered delays totaling nine hours or more.

A pair of 36-hour Peoria Lock closures are scheduled over the May 17-30 period, and Starved Rock Lock will shut down for 10 hours daily between June 1 and July 7. LaGrange Lock will be limited to nighttime-only navigation June 1 through Aug. 29.

Ohio River: Persistent high water and fast flows forced tow reductions on southbound vessels downstream from Cairo. The cuts swelled wait times at the Cairo interchange to 2-3 days. National Weather Service data put Cairo levels at 36.74 feet and rising on April 26, well above the 32-foot action stage.

The Markland Lock main chamber is slated to close May 1 through Sept. 29, with shippers predicting substantial delays as a result. Markland’s auxiliary chamber reopened April 26 following an extended closure.

Ironton-Russell Bridge demolition will necessitate daytime transit shutdowns on May 17, May 29, and June 15. Main chamber work at Emsworth Lock will induce daily closures between 8:00 a.m. and 11:59 p.m., June 26 through Sept. 25. Vessels will be able to pass during overnight hours, with transit subject to an 80-foot width limit. Substantial delays are anticipated. A Lock 52 auxiliary chamber repair project is scheduled to run intermittently between July 17 and Sept. 29, potentially slowing transits.

Major repairs scheduled for the Monongahela River’s Lock 4 are expected to cause headaches between May 14 and June 20. Plans call for a complete Monday-through-Friday transit shutdown at the site. The auxiliary chamber will be made available for weekend use, but transits will be limited to a single barge per turn, leading shippers to brace for massive delays. Braddock Lock and Dam is scheduled to resume main chamber operation on April 28. The chamber has been shuttered for repairs since March 30.

High flows closed the Tennessee River at Miles 446-454 last week. Wilson Lock is closed through June 8 for maintenance. Kentucky Lock, beset by sporadic service interruptions in recent weeks, is scheduled to resume normal operation on April 30.

The Allegheny River’s Lock 6 is offline due to mechanical failure, closing the river. Cheatham Lock on the Cumberland River was closed between 6:00 a.m. and 4:00 p.m. on April 25.

Arkansas River: Elevated river levels were forecast to slow Arkansas River transits for the next 1-2 weeks. The high-water conditions have prompted dams to open relief valves to maximum capacity, increasing river speeds. Sources quoted delays of 3-10 days.

Netanyahu supports two-year delay in tank closure

Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu has proposed extending the period of operation of the Haifa Chemicals ammonia storage plant beyond the June 1 deadline. Netanyahu said he supported the continued operation of the facility for at least two years. A statement by the prime minister’s office was issued late Monday following a meeting between Netanyahu and Environmental Protection Minister Zeev Elkin. Also taking part at the meeting were senior officials from the prime minister’s office, the Environmental Protection Ministry, the Finance Ministry and the Economics Ministry. The prime minister asked legal authorities at the various ministries to delay the shut-down of the ammonia storage plant in order to prevent mass layoffs at Haifa Chemicals.

Fire at Yara plant

Yara International ASA reported April 24 that there was a fire in the ammonia plant at Yara Porsgrunn in Norway this morning. The fire was put out, and no personnel have been injured.

Investigations into the cause and material damage of the fire are ongoing, but the damage is limited to the ammonia plant.

The Porsgrunn plant has the capability to produce for full finished fertilizer production based on imported ammonia.

The Yara Porsgrunn plant has an annual production capacity of approximately 0.5 million mt ammonia, 2.2 million mt NPK and 0.8 million mt calcium nitrate.

EPA seeks two-year delay on revised RMP

U.S. Environmental Protection Agency (EPA) Administrator Scott Pruitt has proposed to further delay the effective date of EPA’s revised Risk Management Program (RMP) rule to allow EPA more time to review objections to the rule, solicit additional public input, and conduct new rulemaking.

Pruitt’s proposal, which was signed on March 29, seeks to delay the effective date of the amended RMP until Feb. 19, 2019, well past the existing June 19, 2017, enforcement date, which had already been delayed due to legal challenges. EPA said in a statement that the additional delay will allow the agency “time to evaluate the objections raised by multiple petitioners and consider other issues that may benefit from additional public input.”

The revised RMP has had a bumpy ride since its Jan. 13 publication in the Federal Register. The amended RMP was originally slated to take effect on March 14, 60 days after the Federal Register notice. On Feb. 28, however, a coalition of industry groups petitioned Pruitt for a stay, arguing that EPA’s final rule was “procedurally deficient so as to deprive commentators of effective notice and opportunity to comment.”

The coalition – which included the American Chemistry Council (ACC), the American Forest and Paper Association, the American Fuel and Petrochemical Manufacturers, the American Petroleum Institute, the Chamber of Commerce of the United States of America, the National Association of Manufacturers, and the Utility Air Regulatory Group – also charged that the revised RMP undermines safety and creates security risks because it “compels facilities to make available sensitive information about covered processes that could expose vulnerabilities to terrorists and others who may target refineries, chemical plants, and other facilities.”

In response, EPA on March 13 placed a 90-day hold on the rule (GM March 17, p. 1), pushing the enforcement date back to June 19. The agency now claims it needs an additional 20 months to adequately review the rule and to ensure that “all provisions … are in accordance with the explicit mandate granted to EPA by Congress in the Clean Air Act Amendments of 1990.”

The revised RMP is also being challenged in court. On March 13, the ACC industry coalition filed a lawsuit against EPA in the U.S. Court of Appeals for the District of Columbia, asking the court to set aside the rule “because it is unlawful, arbitrary, capricious, an abuse of discretion, and not otherwise in accordance with law.” On April 13, a number of environmental groups filed a motion to intervene on EPA’s behalf in the case.

The amended RMP was developed in response to an executive order issued by President Obama in August 2013 (GM Aug. 5, 2013) in the wake of the West Fertilizer explosion. Some of the changes proposed in the rule include increasing the frequency and scope of “independent third-party compliance audits” while narrowing the pool of eligible auditors; requiring “root cause investigations” for chemical incidents and “near misses;” requiring companies to evaluate the feasibility of adopting inherently safer technologies (IST) as part of their process hazard analyses; enhancing coordination with local emergency response organizations; and enhancing public information sharing.

“We want to prevent regulation created for the sake of regulation by the previous administration,” Pruitt said in his March 29 statement. “Any expansion of the RMP program should make chemical facilities safer, without compromising our national security.”

The Agricultural Retailers Association (ARA), which joined The Fertilizer institute (TFI) in filing comments with EPA during the RMP rulemaking phase (GM May 27, 2016; April 22, 2016), told Green Markets that it is happy with the delay request.

“The prior EPA finalized the rule essentially ignoring the comments and concerns of the regulated community, and we’re hopeful that under Administrator Pruitt’s leadership, the agency will withdraw or substantially revise it,” said Daren Coppock, ARA president and CEO.

EPA is accepting written comments on the proposed delay until May 19, and has scheduled a public hearing on April 19.

Urea

U.S. Gulf: Granular prompt granular barges continued to weaken last week, trading as low as $219/st FOB before rebounding back into the mid-$220/st FOB. Early week trades were reported to have been as high as $232/st FOB. The $219-$232/st FOB range compares to the prior week’s $230-$242/st FOB.

Several factors were cited for the drop. There were reports of Chinese barges in the market that were competing with other tons. In addition, an early spring ammonia run in the heartland was thought to put pressure on urea and UAN going forward. Others cited lackluster demand on international markets, including India and Brazil.

Coming into 2017, the fertilizer year-to-date is some 1.1 million st behind on urea imports. At one point, that factor was believed to be giving the market legs in the light of delayed new domestic production.

The prill market was hard to peg. While sellers were quoting as high as $255/st FOB for feed-grade material and in the $240s/st FOB for melt-grade, sources doubted that those numbers were attainable in light of lower granular prices. As a result, the market was called $235-$240/st FOB.

Eastern Cornbelt: The granular urea market remained in the $275-$290/st FOB range in the Eastern Cornbelt, with the upper end inland and the low reported at Cincinnati, Ohio, and other river locations.

Western Cornbelt: The granular urea market was pegged at $275-$285/st FOB in the Western Cornbelt, with the low confirmed in St. Louis, Mo., and the upper end out of Iowa terminals.

Southern Plains: The granular urea market was pegged at $270-$275/st FOB Catoosa, Okla., down $5-$10/st from last report. Urea pricing out of the Houston, Texas, market continued to be quoted at the $285/st FOB level at the upper end of the regional range.

South Central: Granular urea prices had reportedly slipped to $270/st FOB Memphis and Little Rock, Ark., down $5-$15/st from last report, while reference prices in the Kentucky market remained in the $280-$285/st FOB range for prompt tons. Postings out of Convent, La., were also reported at the $285/st FOB level at mid-month.

Southeast: The granular urea market remained at $295-$305/st FOB port terminals in the Southeast.

Middle East: Egypt sold about 30,000 mt of urea this week at $260/mt FOB. This is significantly lower than the producers’ expectations of $270-$280/mt FOB.

The most likely buyers of the Egyptian product are in Europe, said sources. Even at $260/mt FOB, industry watchers said the price is too high to go to another market.

Arab Gulf producers argue that the price should be $275-$280/mt FOB. However, prices settled around the globe point to much lower numbers. Even the $270/mt FOB that traders refer to as the current “realistic” price seems high to many in the industry.

Sources said Brazilian business recently done at $260/mt CFR has an estimated netback to the Arab Gulf of $240/mt FOB. At the same time, the price of Arab product has been matching the Chinese granular price, which is still pegged in the upper-$260s/mt FOB. The latest Indonesian price of $252/mt FOB also points to an Arab Gulf price in the upper-$250s/mt FOB.

To add more shade to producers’ expectations, sources report that the paper market has already moved the March price into the upper-$230s/mt FOB, an almost $10/mt drop in one week.

Some of the softness in the Arab pricing is coming from the end of the U.S. season, along with softening NOLA prices. At the same time, Brazil is being aggressive in its desire for lower prices, including a willingness to sit back and wait for softer prices. And lastly, the absence of India from the global market is leaving excess tons with no place to go.

In Algeria, the Sorfert plant has cut back on urea production while minor maintenance work takes place. Sources reported that the plant should be back up and running by this weekend or early next week at the latest.

Indonesia: Early this week producers tried to sell 60,000 mt of granular with a floor price of $265/mt FOB and 30,000 mt of prills for no less than $255/mt FOB. When the highest bids were only $250/mt FOB for granular and $230/mt FOB for prills, the Indonesian bean counters looked at their numbers again and dropped the reserve prices.

In the end, a floor price of $250/mt FOB for the granular got five companies to bid $252.25-$255/mt FOB for the granular product.

Buyer Quantity (mt) US$/mt FOB
Asia Gran Universal 30,000 252.25
Brio Agrichem 10,000 252.25
Samsung 6,000 255.00
Daewoo 6,000 255.00
Eurochem 6,000 255.00

Initial reports that Ameropa also took 20,000 mt now appear to have been just a rumor.

No prilled sales were reported.

Sources said it is not clear if Daewoo will be awarded the full 6,000 mt, or only a portion of the offered tons.

Industry watchers will now be paying attention to what happens to the prilled urea. One trader said if the leftover tons are offered immediately, the selling price will be lower still. Another trader offered the idea that holding on to the tons for a later sale will not only result in lower prices, but dramatically lower prices. Industry sources point to the lack of any major buyer in the global market for the next month or so as the prime mover in the lower price expectations of buyers.

China: Sources report that the domestic market is still strong enough to keep prices steady, even as international demand is off.

Sources put granular at $265-$270/mt FOB. Some traders are calling the market in the upper-$250s/mt FOB. One trader said sub-$260/mt FOB might be available for late March material, but anything going out in the first half of March is definitely in the $260s/mt FOB range. Industry watchers said the diverse pricing ideas for Chinese granular could be written off to the lack of international demand for that product.

Prills are pegged in the low-$230s/mt FOB.

National production has reportedly hit 60 percent and is climbing. Sources said the increased tonnage is being quickly snapped up by domestic buyers.

India: International traders seem united in the view that no new tender will be called until late March. Sources said the current reserves are sufficient to cover domestic demand until the new fiscal year starts April 1.

Sources said the industry remains confident that a tender will be called before the new fiscal year starts. Traders point to the assurances by the Indian government that the urea subsidy will not be reduced in the next year. In fact, the government has publicly stated that the urea subsidy for the next fiscal year will not be changed from the current year.

The government continues to push for more Indian companies to either build new urea plants, upgrade existing plants, re-open shuttered plants, or come to an arrangement with offshore producers for exclusive imports rights. Subsidies for upgrading or building new domestic production are tied to significant investments by the companies.

Black Sea: A sale of 10,000 mt out of Ukraine at $247.50/mt FOB helped set the new price out of Yuzhnyy. Sources speculated that the early March cargo is bound for Turkey.

Pakistan: Engro Fertilizers Ltd., Pakistan’s leading urea producer and DAP importer, reported an after-tax profit of PKR9 billion for calendar year 2016, compared with PKR15. 02 billion for 2015.

Engro reported an 18 percent year-over-year drop in net sales, fueled by a 12 percent drop in urea sales to 1.653 million mt in 2016, and a 23 percent drop in NP sales to 52,000 mt. DAP sales for 2016 surged to 528,000 mt, however, up 35 percent from the prior year.

As for prices, Engro said average urea prices fell 16 percent from 2015, to PKR1,614/50kg bag, while DAP prices fell 22 percent year-over-year, to PKR2,847/50kg bag in 2016.

Nitrogen Solutions

U.S. Gulf: Most put UAN barge prices at $180-$185/st ($5.63-$5.78/unit) FOB for prompt last week. Price ideas for March were called $190-$195/st FOB. As with urea, price ideas appeared to be lower, but UAN prices were firmer overall.

The last done on the East Coast vessel market continued to be called $200-$205/mt CFR. Sources were divided on the direction of the market, however. While some pointed to quotes in the $205-$208/mt CFR range, others argued that the next trades would likely fall somewhere within the $190-$200/mt CFR range.

Eastern Cornbelt: Ohio sources quoted the UAN-28 market at $184-$185/st $6.57-$6.61/unit) FOB Cincinnati for prompt tons, with UAN-32 pegged at the $210/st ($6.56/unit) FOB level at that location. Illinois sources quoted the UAN-32 market at $210-$225/st ($6.56-$7.03/unit) FOB at mid-month, depending on location and time of delivery.

Western Cornbelt: UAN-32 was steady at $205-$230/st ($6.41-$7.19/unit) FOB in the Western Cornbelt, depending on location and time of delivery. Nebraska sources pegged the market at $205-$215/st ($6.41-$6.72/unit) FOB in late February, while Iowa sources quoted the dealer market at $225-$230/st ($7.03-$7.19/unit) FOB terminals in the state.

Southern Plains: UAN-32 pricing in the Southern Plains was down slightly from last report. Sources pegged the prompt market at $190-$210/st ($5.94-$6.56/unit) FOB out of terminals on the coastal bend of Texas, while pricing out of regional production points fell in the $200-$205/st ($6.25-$6.41/unit) FOB range at mid-month.

South Central: The UAN-32 market had reportedly firmed to $215-$230/st ($6.72-$7.19/unit) FOB in the South Central region, up another $5-$10/st from last report, with the low confirmed at Memphis and the upper end out of Kentucky terminals.

Southeast: The UAN-32 market was quoted at $188-$190/st ($5.88-$5.94/unit) FOB Wilmington, N.C., and up to $195/st ($6.09/unit) FOB Savannah, Ga. Several sources said they expected the lower numbers to firm roughly $5/st in the near-term, however, based on firming import vessel replacement costs. One source said the port terminal market “is lagging.”

Out of inland terminals in Georgia, the UAN-32 market had reportedly firmed to $195-$200/st ($6.09-$6.25/unit) FOB for new sales, up $5/st from last report.