U.S. Gulf: Granular prompt granular barges continued to weaken last week, trading as low as $219/st FOB before rebounding back into the mid-$220/st FOB. Early week trades were reported to have been as high as $232/st FOB. The $219-$232/st FOB range compares to the prior week’s $230-$242/st FOB.
Several factors were cited for the drop. There were reports of Chinese barges in the market that were competing with other tons. In addition, an early spring ammonia run in the heartland was thought to put pressure on urea and UAN going forward. Others cited lackluster demand on international markets, including India and Brazil.
Coming into 2017, the fertilizer year-to-date is some 1.1 million st behind on urea imports. At one point, that factor was believed to be giving the market legs in the light of delayed new domestic production.
The prill market was hard to peg. While sellers were quoting as high as $255/st FOB for feed-grade material and in the $240s/st FOB for melt-grade, sources doubted that those numbers were attainable in light of lower granular prices. As a result, the market was called $235-$240/st FOB.
Eastern Cornbelt: The granular urea market remained in the $275-$290/st FOB range in the Eastern Cornbelt, with the upper end inland and the low reported at Cincinnati, Ohio, and other river locations.
Western Cornbelt: The granular urea market was pegged at $275-$285/st FOB in the Western Cornbelt, with the low confirmed in St. Louis, Mo., and the upper end out of Iowa terminals.
Southern Plains: The granular urea market was pegged at $270-$275/st FOB Catoosa, Okla., down $5-$10/st from last report. Urea pricing out of the Houston, Texas, market continued to be quoted at the $285/st FOB level at the upper end of the regional range.
South Central: Granular urea prices had reportedly slipped to $270/st FOB Memphis and Little Rock, Ark., down $5-$15/st from last report, while reference prices in the Kentucky market remained in the $280-$285/st FOB range for prompt tons. Postings out of Convent, La., were also reported at the $285/st FOB level at mid-month.
Southeast: The granular urea market remained at $295-$305/st FOB port terminals in the Southeast.
Middle East: Egypt sold about 30,000 mt of urea this week at $260/mt FOB. This is significantly lower than the producers’ expectations of $270-$280/mt FOB.
The most likely buyers of the Egyptian product are in Europe, said sources. Even at $260/mt FOB, industry watchers said the price is too high to go to another market.
Arab Gulf producers argue that the price should be $275-$280/mt FOB. However, prices settled around the globe point to much lower numbers. Even the $270/mt FOB that traders refer to as the current “realistic” price seems high to many in the industry.
Sources said Brazilian business recently done at $260/mt CFR has an estimated netback to the Arab Gulf of $240/mt FOB. At the same time, the price of Arab product has been matching the Chinese granular price, which is still pegged in the upper-$260s/mt FOB. The latest Indonesian price of $252/mt FOB also points to an Arab Gulf price in the upper-$250s/mt FOB.
To add more shade to producers’ expectations, sources report that the paper market has already moved the March price into the upper-$230s/mt FOB, an almost $10/mt drop in one week.
Some of the softness in the Arab pricing is coming from the end of the U.S. season, along with softening NOLA prices. At the same time, Brazil is being aggressive in its desire for lower prices, including a willingness to sit back and wait for softer prices. And lastly, the absence of India from the global market is leaving excess tons with no place to go.
In Algeria, the Sorfert plant has cut back on urea production while minor maintenance work takes place. Sources reported that the plant should be back up and running by this weekend or early next week at the latest.
Indonesia: Early this week producers tried to sell 60,000 mt of granular with a floor price of $265/mt FOB and 30,000 mt of prills for no less than $255/mt FOB. When the highest bids were only $250/mt FOB for granular and $230/mt FOB for prills, the Indonesian bean counters looked at their numbers again and dropped the reserve prices.
In the end, a floor price of $250/mt FOB for the granular got five companies to bid $252.25-$255/mt FOB for the granular product.
| Buyer |
Quantity (mt) |
US$/mt FOB |
| Asia Gran Universal |
30,000 |
252.25 |
| Brio Agrichem |
10,000 |
252.25 |
| Samsung |
6,000 |
255.00 |
| Daewoo |
6,000 |
255.00 |
| Eurochem |
6,000 |
255.00 |
Initial reports that Ameropa also took 20,000 mt now appear to have been just a rumor.
No prilled sales were reported.
Sources said it is not clear if Daewoo will be awarded the full 6,000 mt, or only a portion of the offered tons.
Industry watchers will now be paying attention to what happens to the prilled urea. One trader said if the leftover tons are offered immediately, the selling price will be lower still. Another trader offered the idea that holding on to the tons for a later sale will not only result in lower prices, but dramatically lower prices. Industry sources point to the lack of any major buyer in the global market for the next month or so as the prime mover in the lower price expectations of buyers.
China: Sources report that the domestic market is still strong enough to keep prices steady, even as international demand is off.
Sources put granular at $265-$270/mt FOB. Some traders are calling the market in the upper-$250s/mt FOB. One trader said sub-$260/mt FOB might be available for late March material, but anything going out in the first half of March is definitely in the $260s/mt FOB range. Industry watchers said the diverse pricing ideas for Chinese granular could be written off to the lack of international demand for that product.
Prills are pegged in the low-$230s/mt FOB.
National production has reportedly hit 60 percent and is climbing. Sources said the increased tonnage is being quickly snapped up by domestic buyers.
India: International traders seem united in the view that no new tender will be called until late March. Sources said the current reserves are sufficient to cover domestic demand until the new fiscal year starts April 1.
Sources said the industry remains confident that a tender will be called before the new fiscal year starts. Traders point to the assurances by the Indian government that the urea subsidy will not be reduced in the next year. In fact, the government has publicly stated that the urea subsidy for the next fiscal year will not be changed from the current year.
The government continues to push for more Indian companies to either build new urea plants, upgrade existing plants, re-open shuttered plants, or come to an arrangement with offshore producers for exclusive imports rights. Subsidies for upgrading or building new domestic production are tied to significant investments by the companies.
Black Sea: A sale of 10,000 mt out of Ukraine at $247.50/mt FOB helped set the new price out of Yuzhnyy. Sources speculated that the early March cargo is bound for Turkey.
Pakistan: Engro Fertilizers Ltd., Pakistan’s leading urea producer and DAP importer, reported an after-tax profit of PKR9 billion for calendar year 2016, compared with PKR15. 02 billion for 2015.
Engro reported an 18 percent year-over-year drop in net sales, fueled by a 12 percent drop in urea sales to 1.653 million mt in 2016, and a 23 percent drop in NP sales to 52,000 mt. DAP sales for 2016 surged to 528,000 mt, however, up 35 percent from the prior year.
As for prices, Engro said average urea prices fell 16 percent from 2015, to PKR1,614/50kg bag, while DAP prices fell 22 percent year-over-year, to PKR2,847/50kg bag in 2016.