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Urea

U.S. Gulf: Loaded barges were reported to be trading as high as $265/st FOB, although those for prompt loading within a few weeks out were called lower at $242-$245/st FOB. Price ideas for April were $220-$240/st FOB.

Prills continued to be called $250-$255/st FOB.

Eastern Cornbelt: The granular urea market remained at $295-$305/st FOB for new sales in the Eastern Cornbelt, with the lower numbers out of river locations and the upper end inland.

Western Cornbelt: While there were reports of some locations posting urea as high as $335/st FOB for new business, most sources pegged the regional urea market in the $300-$310/st FOB range for spot sales at mid-month. Product remained in tight supply in the Western Cornbelt.

Southern Plains: Granular urea pricing was moving up in the Southern Plains. Sources pegged the market at $305-$315/st FOB Catoosa, Okla., up $10-$15/st from last report, with inventories described as “limited” at the port.

South Central:The granular urea market was quoted at $280-$295/st FOB in the South Central region, with the low reported at Convent, La., and the upper end in the Arkansas market. Urea pricing FOB Memphis was tagged firmly at the $290/st level for the week.

Southeast: Granular urea pricing had reportedly firmed to $300-$305/st FOB port terminals in the Southeast, up $5-$10/st from last report, with sources reporting “more urea activity and spot purchases” beginning in the region.

China: While some buyers claim the price should be just under $200/mt FOB, a sale early this week for prompt shipment of 20,000 mt came in at $212/mt FOB. The argument now is that prices should be $215-$218/mt FOB.

Producers have been arguing for a couple of weeks now that the lowest price they would accept is $210/mt FOB. At the same time, traders were pointing to deals here and there that were closer to $200/mt FOB.

The bottom line, said one trader, is that the domestic season is currently at its peak. Domestic demand and purchases are driving the export price. Some producers are more willing to move material to an inland distributor rather than an export warehouse. The domestic price is improving for producers, and demand is strong enough that there is little reason to put product on hold in anticipation of a major offshore sale.

Sources said the battle between offshore buyers and the producers is currently at an impasse. Producers see no need to lower their prices, and buyers are willing to raise their bids.

The stalemate is expected to last into April. By then, the domestic season will be in its final stages of demand and India will be preparing for its first tender of the fiscal year. Sources expect India to argue for offers at or below $200/mt FOB, and in exchange they will take large quantities to relieve pressure on built-up product reserves in China.

Additional pressure on Chinese prices is coming from Thailand. Sources said Thai buyers are demanding a price with a China netback of $185/mt FOB. The Thais do not take large quantities, yet they demand low prices. The same offer showed an Arab Gulf equivalent of $195/mt FOB.

Traders said the Thais will continue to pressure suppliers to move closer to their buying ideas without giving up much of their own position.

India: Urea stockpiles are reported at 1.5 million mt. These large reserves are the main reason no tender will be called this month.

Sources reported that MMTC had prepared the paperwork for a late-March tender, but put the idea on hold once the final reports came in about the country’s urea reserves.

In the past, one of the Indian buying houses would call a tender just before the beginning of the fiscal year on April 1. The awarded tonnage would then be delivered after the fiscal year started in order to qualify for subsidies under the new budget.

The budget plan as released by the Indian government so far indicates that the government will not allot more money for subsidies. Because of a weakening rupee, sources said the lack of an increase in funds for urea subsidies actually means less money will be available for the next 12 months. One trader noted that the softer price of urea will help mitigate some of the losses related to currency fluctuation, but not all.

The Indian government is also stepping up its support for more domestic urea plants and off-shore joint ventures with favorable offtake agreements. Last year these efforts led to a slight decrease in demand for imported urea. The government hopes that as its plans go forward more rapidly, India could become self-sufficient in urea in the next 5-10 years.

Black Sea: Sources report that offers from Yuzhnyy are now below $200/mt FOB. One trader reported a deal to Turkey that came in at a $192/mt FOB Yuzhnyy equivalent.

The number of sales to Turkey from different sources – Egypt, the Arab Gulf, and China – has put pressure on the CIS producers to meet or beat the price from the intruders. While most of the volatility in the market came from granular product in the past month, prilled urea prices varied based on the granular sales.

The softer Yuzhnyy price is also reflected in Baltic sales. One trader reported business out of the Baltics at $195-$197/mt FOB.

Middle East: Steady movement to contract buyers has kept the producers just happy enough to avoid having to fight back massive demands for lower prices – at least for spot business. Sources report the spot market at $210-$215/mt FOB and leaning to the lower side.

Contracted business is all over the place. The latest business being discussed is sales to Thailand at $195/mt FOB. The Thais usually ask for a price that is dramatically lower than many others, and usually the Arab producers go along in order to protect their market share.

Reportedly, April remains open. Sources reported that the number of contract tons slated to flow out of the Arab Gulf is expected to slow down as demand for granular product elsewhere in the world wanes. One or two Arab producers might participate in an Indian April tender, if for no other reason than to publically indicate where they think the price should be.

Sri Lanka: The country closes a tender for 42,000 mt on March 24. Previous bids that were rejected came in at $185/mt FOB China equivalent. Sources said higher offers are expected in this tender to better reflect the actual state of the global market.

That said, one trader speculated that at least one outlier will appear in this tender with a super-low price and take the day. Whether that outlier will be able to find backing is another question.

Pakistan: The government appears to be going ahead with plans to allow the private sector to import urea. Up until now, TCP handled the 1.5 million mt/y urea imports to cover the difference between domestic production and demand.

The Finance Division and the Ministry of Petroleum, however, gave the Ministry of National Food Security and Research orders to develop a plan to allow for urea imports by any private sector company.

The urea producers added a criticism of this plan to their regular complaints about imports in general. The producers argue that all they need is for the government to allocate more natural gas to them and they will cover the country’s annual urea needs. They said a recent 15-year agreement with Qatar for natural gas shipments to Pakistan will provide more than enough gas to cover consumer needs as well as allowing for an increase in urea production.

Other complaints include brokers adding their commission and other costs to the urea, thereby requiring higher subsidy payments from the government to maintain the regulated price of urea to the farmers.

The government already allows phosphate imports by non-state owned companies. It argues that if it works for phosphates, it will also work for urea.

International traders said they expect urea producers to fight the plan, but believe they will eventually lose. Reports are circulating that the plan will go forward. It is just a question of how soon it will be implemented.

Ammonia

U.S. Gulf/Tampa: In light of firming international prices, some sources had expected a bump at Tampa for April. However, that was not to be the case. Major players concluded a rollover late in the week at $310/mt DEL.

While inland U.S. supplies of ammonia have tightened, that is apparently not the case for the Caribbean, where sources say there are a few stray cargoes competing for the Tampa market. Reportedly, there was an available cargo from Trinidad and one from Venezuela’s FertiNitro, where there has been a urea plant down. In addition, Mosaic is continuing to take minimum supplies of ammonia due to phosphate cutbacks.

The last-done NOLA barge business continued to be reported in the $285-$292/st FOB range.

April NYMEX natural gas closed March 17 at $1.936/mmBtu, up from March 10’s $1.788/mmBtu.

Eastern Cornbelt: Wet conditions slowed preplant ammonia movement in the Eastern Cornbelt, but tight inventories continued to drive up spot prices. Sources quoted the regional ammonia market at $515-$525/st FOB for new business at mid-month, up $35/st from the previous week, although there was “no real activity” to test those new pricing levels.

Ammonia pricing levels FOB Courtright, Ont., had also reportedly firmed to the $525/st level for sales to U.S. customers, up from $490/st FOB the week before.

Western Cornbelt: Preplant demand for ammonia remained strong in areas of the Western Cornbelt where fieldwork was uninterrupted by rainfall last week. Ongoing demand, coupled with tight supply, served to drive ammonia prices higher again during the week.

“We’re trying to move ammonia, but can’t get our hands on it,” said one Nebraska contact late in the week.

Sources early in the week quoted spot ammonia pricing at the $480-$490/st FOB level in Nebraska, up $20/st or more from the previous week. By the end of the week, however, terminal levels were quoted as high as $515/st FOB in Nebraska and $525/st FOB in Iowa for March and April tons.

Southern Plains: Fueled by tight supply, the anhydrous ammonia market continued to strengthen in the Southern Plains region. Sources quoted the market at $440-$465/st FOB regional production points, up some $20-$40/st from the week before, with the low quoted for April delivery and the upper end reportedly being offered for “very limited” spot tons.

Ammonia availability was the key issue, however, with most production points and pipeline terminals out of product and not offering prompt tons at mid-month. “In 10 days, there will be some tonnage cheaper than $465/st FOB,” said one contact.

South Central: Sources reported much higher spot prices for ammonia in the South Central region. “Pricing has not been tested for a couple of weeks, so when fields dry it will be interesting to see if we can keep supply,” said one regional source.

The ammonia market had reportedly firmed to $490/st FOB Memphis, Tenn., up a full $90/st from three weeks earlier. The Henderson, Ky., ammonia market was quoted at the $525/st FOB level for new business last week, up from $470/st FOB just one week earlier. “The question is will the farmer buy at this number, and will there be time to get it on ahead of planting,” said one regional contact.

Black Sea: Sources said the downward trend in prices appears to have abated. This week a series of cargoes at 6,000 mt each were sold to Turkey from Yuzhnyy origin for an estimated netback of $270/mt FOB. Additional deals for larger tons came in at $250-$260/mt FOB for April loadings.

The stabilized prices appeared to come from production cutbacks instead of new demand. Ukrainian producers continue to have problems getting enough low-cost natural gas from Russia to turn out product. Sources reported spot Yuzhnyy supplies for export are close to being sold out for April.

Sellers are already saying the $270/mt FOB price should be the floor for any April discussions. Traders and other buyers, however, are pushing back, and are apparently willing to discuss prices in the $260s/mt FOB.

India: Buyers continue to take product from Arab and Persian sources, but prices are beginning to move up. The latest FACT tender for two lots of 7,500 mt showed a $388/mt CFR price.

Unfortunately for FACT, it ended up with only one lot being awarded. Sources said the cargo will come from Iran with an estimated netback of $330/mt FOB.

The FACT price flies in the face of statements by other buyers that they would only accept $360/mt CFR for the east coast and $340/mt CFR for the west coast. Sources said these pricing ideas might have worked early last week, but not now.

India bought a lot of ammonia during the past month, but sources said demand for the rest of March and April is expected to be much lower. Sources said the large stockpiles of DAP and urea in India indicated to some observers that India has less need for more ammonia in the coming weeks. Talks among buyers and sellers in the past week appeared to confirm that Indian demand for ammonia is expected to slow down in the near future.

Middle East: Arab and Persian producers in the Arab Gulf are able to move up their prices.

Sources said the netback of an Iranian sale to FACT in India is about $330/mt FOB. Arab producers covered sales late this week that came in at $340/mt FOB. These sales are on the heels of a deal late last week from PIC that reportedly came in at $320/mt FOB.

Arab producers claim they are sold out for March, and industry observers are willing to accept that. April loadings are now being discussed in the $340s/mt FOB.

Industry observers are concerned that producers will push the strengthening market too hard and take prices much higher too fast. One trader said India might be able to work with a gradual increase in prices, but will push back against any rapid increase.

Sources said some inquiries to producers came as a result of unexpected shortages in Asia. Reportedly, a production issue in Indonesia forced a trading house to look elsewhere for product to cover the lost ammonia. Arab producers apparently used the situation to move up prices for spot business.

Moroccan buyers have apparently stepped up their demand. Sources said last month that demand was pegged at 2,500 mt/day, but the March numbers now indicate demand is closer to 3,500 mt/day.

The demand is not seen as a major step up. Rather, said one trader, it puts Morocco back on track to meet with its regular demand.

Baltic: Koch reportedly picked up 40,000 mt for an early April loading. Sources said the purchase pretty much closes out any potential spot business from the area until May. Even then, said one trader, because the Baltic exporters depend mostly on contract sales, the amount of tonnage available for spot sales fluctuates.

Karnalyte reports K project financing

Karnalyte Resources Inc. said March 14 that it has entered into an agreement in principle with India’s Gujarat State Fertilizers and Chemicals Ltd. (GSFC) to provide approximately US$700 million to finance construction of the first phase of Karnalyte’s 625,000 mt/y potash mine at Wynyard, Sask. (Phase 1), and an agreement in principle to spin-out Karnalyte’s secondary mineral (magnesium-related) assets and unexplored lands into one or more separate entities.

“I am proud to announce that Karnalyte is about to achieve its most significant milestone yet: a fully financed structure to build our potash mine in Saskatchewan,” said Karnalyte Founder and President Robin Phinney. “We are extremely pleased to have entered into the agreement in principle with GSFC, which is expected to enable Karnalyte to develop its significant potash resource. The agreement in principle provides for a comprehensive financing package to fully fund Karnalyte’s 625,000 mt/y potash mine while enabling shareholders to maximize their investment in Karnalyte’s secondary minerals and unexplored lands.”

“This ground-breaking deal structure demonstrates GSFC’s long-term commitment and desire to secure supplies of key natural resources through investment structures that are aligned with the values of Canadian shareholders,” said Vishvesh Nanavaty, GSFC’s senior vice president and CFO. “I believe this financing will serve as a template for future investment by Indian companies in Canada and will strengthen relations between our two countries for years to come.”

In 2011 Karnalyte received a positive feasibility study prepared by Foster Wheeler Canada and Ercosplan for Karnalyte’s plans to construct a solution mining facility at Wynyard to produce a high-grade (97 percent purity) granular potash product. Karnalyte intends to construct the facility in three phases, with Phase 1 expected to produce approximately 625,000 mt/y, increasing by 750,000 mt/y with Phase 2, and totaling 2.125 million mt/y with the addition of Phase 3.

In 2013, GSFC, one of India’s largest fertilizer and industrial chemicals manufacturing companies, made a strategic investment in Karnalyte of approximately $44.7 million, resulting in GSFC holding a 19.98 percent ownership stake in Karnalyte. In connection with this investment, Karnalyte and GSFC executed an off-take agreement for GSFC’s purchase of approximately 350,000 mt/y from Phase 1. The offtake commences with commercial production from Phase 1, with the result that Karnalyte has secured sales for about 56 percent of its potash production from Phase 1 for approximately 20 years. GSFC can increase its offtake as the project progresses, and up to 1 million mt/y in Phase 3.

GSFC is required to have and maintain at least a 51 percent voting interest in Karnalyte while the senior secured debt is outstanding on the loan.

Company breaks ground on new ammonia plant

Several state and local officials, including Gov. Pete Ricketts, were on hand in Geneva, Neb., on March 11 for the groundbreaking of a new anhydrous ammonia plant (GM Jan. 8, p. 1). The project, Nebraska Nitrogen LLC, which is deemed the redeveloper of the site by the City of Geneva, is owned by Fortigen LLC, a company owned by Tetrad Corp. of Omaha, Neb., which in turn is part owner of the Tetrad Property Group (TPG), a major Nebraska real estate firm.

According to filings with the city, the project is expected to cost approximately $72 million and produce only 100 short tons of ammonia per day. The city is making available some $5 million in tax increment financing (TIF) indebtedness to the project.

Shawn Rana, CEO of Fortigen LLC, told the attendees the plant would require some 150-200 workers to construct and employ some 20-30 once complete,
according to the local press. Actual construction is expected to begin in April and take 18 months to complete.

Rana has a history of getting nitrogen plant construction underway, having done the same for U.S. Nitrogen LLC in Mosheim, Tenn., and Iowa Fertilizer Co. for OCI NV in Wever, Iowa.

The company had not responded to inquiries for more details by press time.

Rentech sells Pasadena to Interoceanic unit

Rentech Nitrogen Partners LP announced March 14 that it has completed the sale of its Pasadena, Texas, facility to Pasadena Commodities International, an affiliate of Interoceanic Corp. (IOC), White Plains, New York, which has been the plant’s long-time distributor for ammonium sulfate.

“We are pleased to be able to announce the successful conclusion of the lengthy process to divest Rentech Nitrogen’s ownership in the Pasadena fertilizer facility,” said Rentech Nitrogen CEO Keith Forman. “The process was extensive, involving almost thirty parties, representing both industry and financial buyers. The facility is being sold to an affiliate of IOC with whom we have had a relationship since our original acquisition of this facility over three years ago. They are familiar to us and we believe they will be good stewards of this asset going forward from every perspective, not the least of which will be maximizing the value of our profits interest. This sale also enables us to proceed toward closing Rentech Nitrogen’s merger with CVR Partners, a transaction we believe will be beneficial to both sets of unitholders.”

IOC has over 30 years of experience marketing fertilizers in both the domestic and international markets. IOC has been marketing product out of the facility for over 10 years, having marketed phosphates when the complex produced those under the ownership of Agrifos Holdings Inc.

Touting the facility as North America’s leading producer of synthetic granulated ammonium sulfate, IOC said it will continue in its capacity and expand distribution capabilities to meet customer needs. It said steady production rates and product quality show the plant’s ability to continue to perform at a high standard.

The transaction calls for an initial cash payment to Rentech Nitrogen of $5 million and a cash working capital adjustment, which is expected to be approximately $6 million, after confirmation of the amount within 90 days of the closing of the transaction. The purchase agreement also includes an earn-out that would be paid to Rentech Nitrogen unitholders equal to 50 percent of the facility’s EBITDA in excess of $8 million earned over the next two years.

Rentech Nitrogen expects to set a record date for the distribution to its unitholders of the $5 million initial cash payment, net of transaction-related fees, which are currently estimated to be approximately $0.6 million, prior to closing the pending merger between Rentech Nitrogen and CVR Partners LP. The cash working capital adjustment and any additional cash payments made by the acquirer relating to the purchase of the Pasadena facility will be made to Rentech Nitrogen’s unitholders as of the same record date within a reasonable time shortly after receiving such cash payments.

Rentech Nitrogen bought Pasadena from Agrifos in 2012 for $158 million (GM Nov. 2, 2012). After a major reorganization in 2014, results improved (see related story inside). The company took a $160.6 million impairment on the asset in 2015, and when added to 2013-2014 impairments totals $217.6 million, according to Green Markets calculations (GM Aug. 24, 2015). The company in the meantime spent $6 million to upgrade its ammonium sulfate capacity and $30 million for a co-generation facility.

In 2015, Pasadena produced 526,000 st of ammonium sulfate, 530,000 st of sulfuric acid, and 71,000 st of ammonium thiosulfate. The ammonium sulfate plant ran at a rate of 87 percent and sulfuric acid at 94.4 percent. The facility used 145,000 st of anhydrous ammonia and 193,000 st of sulfuric acid.

Rentech expects to complete the sale of the rest of its business, which includes its East Dubuque, Ill., nitrogen facility, by the end of March.

First phase of Sirius potash mine could cost $3.56 B

The first phase of  junior U.K. potash company Sirius Minerals plc’s North York Potash project in northeast England could cost $3.56 billion to deliver the initial targeted 10 million mt/y capacity that could take five years to build, the long-awaited  definitive feasibility study (DFS) for the project revealed. However, the report, released early today, showed that the operation has the potential to generate underlying annual earnings (EBITDA) of between $1 to $3 billion, depending upon volumes and price. Sirius said the mine could start production of polyhalite in the next five years and reach the 10 million mt/y target by 2023. There is potential to double capacity.

The net present value of the project, located in the North York Moors National Park near Whitby, is $15 billion today using a 10 percent discount rate, the DFS showed.  This figure rises to $27 billion once the mine starts production. The after-tax debt-free internal rate of return is put at 26 percent. The cash margins on the operation are put at 70-85 percent, with average cash operating costs estimated at $27.2 per mt.

Sirius says the financing of the initial 10 million mt/y phase will be done in two tranches, with stage 1 comprising $1.63 billion and stage 2 comprising $1.93 billion. The company says talks with potential funders are “well developed”. As at Feb. 28, 2016, Sirius’ cash balance was £25 million ($35.3 million).

“Work is advancing with our financing partners globally to bring together the pieces of the initial financing for this project,” Chris Fraser, Sirius Minerals’ managing director, said. “This process is expected to take a number of months but certain parts of the early construction activity, such as highway upgrades, are commencing soon to facilitate an efficient start of the project.”

The company to date has secured take or pay offtake agreements for 3.6 million mt/y of the initial output for the first 5 to 10 years of production. It additionally has entered into various other commitments that bring the total volume allocated to customers (including customer expansion options) to 7.9 million mt/y. Sirius says it is confident of securing further commitments during the construction phase.

Late last year, the company secured the final milestone in the planning approval process for the mining and transport licenses for the operation (GM Oct. 23, 2015).  The current project schedule comprises 22 months for site preparation and pre-sink activities and 36 months for mine shaft sinking activity; that equates to 58 months or 4.8 years to first production.

The current planning approvals enable the installation of core infrastructure that delivers capability of 20 million mt/y. Currently, however, there is a limit of 13 million mt/y of production  – which Sirius wants to achieve by 2024 – imposed by a planning condition of the North York Moors National Park Authority approval. However, Sirius says it is confident that an application to vary the planning condition to allow for the increased tonnage would be granted as required. The York mine will be the first new potash mine in the U.K. for 40 years.

OCI plant returns to full production

OCI NV said March 16 that its facility in Geleen, The Netherlands, has restarted production of all units. There was a production stop at the facility Sept. 30, 2015, due to a fire in the basement of the calcium ammonium nitrate plant.

On Oct. 8, 2015, OCI Nitrogen restarted one ammonia production unit, shortly followed by UAN and part of its melamine production. OCI said with the start of operations of the CAN lines, all units are now operational, in time for the spring application in Europe.

OCI said most of the damage, including damage to property and loss of business, is insured.

Rentech weighed down by writedowns

Rentech Nitrogen Partners LP reported fourth-quarter 2015 results March 16 which are still being weighed down by writedowns at its Pasadena facility–$26.3 million in the fourth quarter, $160.6 million for the year. As a result, a fourth-quarter loss of $18.8 million ($0.48 per diluted share) on revenues of $77.4 million was reported versus the year-ago net income of $7.8 million ($0.20 per share) and $80.6 million, respectively. Absent impairments fourth-quarter net income was $7.6 million.

Full-year net losses were $101.5 million ($2.62 per share) on revenues of $340.7 million, compared to 2015’s loss of $1.1 million ($0.03 per share) and $334.6 million, respectively. Absent the impairments, Rentech had net income of $59.1 million.

Net income for Rentech’s East Dubuque nitrogen facility was improved for both the fourth quarter and the year, while the Pasadena unit was impacted by the impairments.

Rentech expects to sell its East Dubuque assets to CVR Partners LP by the end of the month, and this week announced it is selling Pasadena to Pasadena Commodities International, an affiliate of Interoceanic Corp. (IOC), who is the plant’s long-time distributor for ammonium sulfate.

Rentech sells Pasadena facility

Rentech Nitrogen Partners LP announced March 14 that it has completed the sale of its Pasadena, Texas facility to Pasadena Commodities International, an affiliate of Interoceanic Corporation (IOC), who is the plant’s long-time distributor for ammonium sulfate.

The transaction calls for an initial cash payment to Rentech Nitrogen of $5 million and a cash working capital adjustment, which is expected to be approximately $6 million, after confirmation of the amount within ninety days of the closing of the transaction. The purchase agreement also includes an earn-out that would be paid to Rentech Nitrogen unitholders equal to 50 percent of the facility’s EBITDA in excess of $8 million earned over the next two years.

Rentech Nitrogen expects to set a record date for the distribution to its unitholders of the $5 million initial cash payment, net of transaction-related fees which are currently estimated to be approximately $0.6 million, prior to closing the pending merger between Rentech Nitrogen and CVR Partners LP. The cash working capital adjustment and any additional cash payments made by the acquirer relating to the purchase of the Pasadena facility will be made to Rentech Nitrogen’s unitholders as of the same record date within a reasonable time shortly after receiving such cash payments.

Keith Forman, CEO of Rentech Nitrogen, stated, “We are pleased to be able to announce the successful conclusion of the lengthy process to divest Rentech Nitrogen’s ownership in the Pasadena fertilizer facility. The process was extensive, involving almost thirty parties, representing both industry and financial buyers. The facility is being sold to an affiliate of IOC with whom we have had a relationship since our original acquisition of this facility over three years ago. They are familiar to us and we believe they will be good stewards of this asset going forward from every perspective, not the least of which will be maximizing the value of our profits interest. This sale also enables us to proceed toward closing Rentech Nitrogen’s merger with CVR Partners, a transaction we believe will be beneficial to both sets of unitholders.

“Further, I would like to commend and thank the employees and management for their efforts during the successful restructuring of plant operations and their efforts during the past months to successfully conclude this transaction,” added Forman.

In conjunction with the sale of the Pasadena facility, Rentech Nitrogen plans to submit a request with the Securities and Exchange Commission to withdraw its registration statement on Form S-1 relating to the proposed spin-out of the facility.

Rentech Nitrogen expects to close the merger with CVR Partners on or about the end of this month.