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Phosphates

Central Florida: The waiting game for the spring season continued in Central Florida last week, and that could go on for another two weeks to a month – and possibly longer.

No new prompt sales of phosphate railcars were found, but Mosaic appeared willing to deal and would consider offers as much as $20/st FOB below its asking price of $480/st FOB, at least for certain quantities.

However, CF Industries has no need to consider anything less than its asking price, because it has already sold out of product until late this month or early April. CF’s preference would be for an export deal, according to sources.

PotashCorp was making sales in the Southeast at a somewhat more brisk pace, but most of that was probably coming from its Aurora, N.C., plant.

Weather in the areas normally served from Central Florida continued to be a problem last week, with a snow storm striking much of Ohio and the East last week.

Despite a lack of prompt spot sales, the Central Florida DAP price range faltered a little last week, moving from a flat $480/st FOB the previous week to a somewhat more realistic $460-$480/st FOB. Both Mosaic and CF were posted at the $480/st FOB mark, but Mosaic was willing to deal. MAP remained in short supply and was listed at a $20/st premium to DAP by Mosaic in Central Florida, about the same difference as from traders. PCS Sales was selling at prices comparable to the market.

U.S. Gulf: The Gulf’s river system began to trickle last week. A few NOLA DAP barges were traded, and not just for export, as has been the case for more than a month.

Like the river, spring should bring a steady and heavier flow to the phosphate barge market, but it will take a little longer. Still, barges being sold for domestic consumption were a good sign. Nevertheless, the export market continued to provide a bonus for those willing to take the risk to round them up for a deal.

With prices in the mid-to-low $400s/st FOB, the biggest player, Mosaic, was not participating in the market. Once prices begin to rise, that will change. For now, Mosaic was concentrating its efforts in the export market, and that was being done out of Central Florida.

Although far from overwhelming, business at terminals was on the increase last week. Dealers will want to sell much of what they have before reordering.

Prices for corn futures moved up last week compared to the previous week, rising from $5.5825/bushel to $5.685/bushel for December 2012. The corn price for December 2013 was $5.597/bushel, up from $5.47/bushel the previous reporting period. Soybeans for November 2012 increased to $12.925/bushel from $12.6775/bushel the previous week, and beans for November 2013 moved up to $12.24/bushel from $12.11/bushel the previous week. Wheat for July 2012 increased to $6.805 from $6.5125/bushel a week earlier, and wheat for July 2013 was listed at $7.32/bushel last week, up from $7.125/bushel a week earlier.

The NOLA DAP barge price range for the week was $435-$447/st FOB, moving above the previous week’s range of $427-$437/st FOB. The market may float up and down for another couple of weeks before the pace and the price picks up. Prices for MAP were running about $30/st FOB higher than DAP.

Eastern Cornbelt: The DAP market in the Eastern Cornbelt was steady at $495-$515/st FOB regional warehouses, with MAP quoted in the $525-$545/st FOB range in the region. The 10-34-0 market was unchanged at $725-$740/st FOB in the region.

Western Cornbelt: DAP pricing was pegged at $490-$505/st FOB regional warehouses, with MAP in the $515-$535/st FOB range in the Western Cornbelt. An Iowa contact quoted the dealer market for MAP at the $525/st FOB level in his location at midweek.

10-34-0 was steady at $675-$700

Potash

U.S. Gulf: Potash barges continued to be called $490-$505/st FOB, with most citing the sub-$500/st FOB numbers.

Eastern Cornbelt: Sources quoted the potash market in the $535-$545/st FOB range in the Eastern Cornbelt in late February

Western Cornbelt: The potash market in the Western Cornbelt was quoted in the $530-$545/st range FOB regional warehouses, depending on grade and location. An Iowa contact pegged the common dealer market at the $535/st FOB level last week.

California: The potash market remained flat at $590-$610/st FOB California warehouses, depending on grade and location. Sulfate of potash (SOP) was unchanged at $695-$705/st FOB in the state, and potassium nitrate was steady at $1,020/st FOB for bulk tons and $1,090/st FOB for bags.

Pacific Northwest: Potash was flat at $595-$610/st rail-DEL in the Pacific Northwest, depending on grade and location. Potash pricing at Utah mine locations ranged from $530-$540/st FOB.

The K-Mag market remained at the $431/st FOB level in Washington.

Western Canada: Potash pricing remained at $607-$632/mt FOB Western Canada warehouses, depending on grade and location. The market to Canadian customers FOB Saskatchewan mines was pegged in the $592-$601/mt FOB range.

Sulfur

Tampa: No real changes were reported in the sulfur market last week, as supply continues to outstrip demand due to reduced phosphate production.

That situation should change when the spring season for applying phosphate gets started, but that may not happen before the next round of negotiations for new second quarter molten prices to Tampa begins in about a month.

Meanwhile, refineries were continuing to use more sweet crude, which will help control the amount of sulfur being produced.

Vancouver: Prices in China were edging up, but a source said that was mostly due to traders who have supplies at ports, and was speculative.

Orica joins in Burrup AN joint venture

Melbourne—Orica Ltd. said March 1 that it will join Yara International ASA and Apache Energy in the ownership of the planned Burrup ammonium nitrate plant in Australia. Orica said it has signed a heads of agreement with Yara and Apache to form a joint venture to build a 330,000 mt/y plant on the Burrup peninsula and distribute ammonium nitrate and other explosives products to mining customers in the Pilbara. Yara will be the operator of the plant, and Orica will manage the sales and distribution. The final agreement is subject to concluding negotiations on the contract for the engineering, procurement, and construction of the ammonium nitrate plant, and board approvals. The parties are targeting commencement of construction by mid-2012. Orica and Yara will each hold a 45 percent stake, with Apache holding 10 percent. Yara and Apache recently took control of the ammonia plant at Burrup, with Yara owning 51 percent and Apache 49 percent.

Former fertilizer CEO pleads guilty

San Francisco—The owner of California Liquid Fertilizer pleaded guilty Feb. 22 in federal court here to carrying out a million-dollar scheme to defraud farmers by misrepresenting his product as an organic fertilizer, according to the U.S. Attorney’s Office. Prosecutors say Peter Townsley will be sentenced June 13 on two counts of fraud, charging that he sold his Biolizer XN as an organic fertilizer that was approved for use in organic agriculture from April 2000 through December 2006, with labels claiming it was approved when it actually contained prohibited chemical ingredients. According to the plea agreement, Townsley applied for and received Organic Materials Review Institute (OMRI) approval of Biolizer XN in 1998, claiming that the fertilizer was made of fish, fish byproducts, feathermeal, and water. Townsley admitted that by April 2000 he had changed the ingredients in Biolizer XN to a product containing ammonium chloride, a material prohibited from use in organic agriculture. In addition, he did not notify OMRI of this change, falsely claiming nothing had changed in the formulation when it was time for the annual renewal of the approval and continuing to market the fertilizer as an OMRI-approved product. Townsley further admitted that by June 2001, he had again changed the formulation to include a different prohibited ingredient, ammonium sulfate, and notified OMRI that the formulation had not changed. Townsley admitted that he knew these representations to his customers were false when he made them, and that by deceiving his customers he was able to ensure continued sales of Biolizer XN to organic farmers. Townsley, 50, a citizen of Canada, was arrested in October 2010 after the unsealing of the initial indictment (GM Oct. 18, 2010). A superseding indictment was filed on July 7, 2011, charging him with one count of conspiracy to commit mail fraud in violation of Title 18, United States Code, Section 1349, and seven counts of mail fraud in violation of Title 18, United States Code, Section 1341. Townsley pleaded guilty to two counts of mail fraud based on his mailing of renewal certifications to OMRI in 2005 and 2006.

Commission approves Mosaic zoning change

Bradenton, Fla.— The Manatee County Commission voted 4-3 to approve a zoning change for The Mosaic Co. to mine an additional 650 acres at its Wingate Creek Mine. The approval left only obtaining an operating permit as the final step before mining begins. Land clearing on the tract was tentatively planned for January 2013. Opponents argued 46 acres of wetlands would be disturbed in order to mine 30 acres. A schedule for the operating permit was not available.

Haifa ammonia storage facility to be moved

Haifa—Based on a decision made March 1 by Israel’s Environmental Protection Minister Gilad Erdan and Industry and Trade Minister Shalom Simhon, the Haifa Chemicals ammonia storage facility will be moved. The directors general of the two ministries will decide on an alternative location in the coming months, apparently in the Negev region in southern Israel. Haifa Chemicals has a plant in Mishor Rotem. No timetable for closing the existing facility or opening a new one was announced. “The two ministries will find an acceptable solution that meets the industrial needs of the local industry on the one hand but also takes into account environmental and security needs of the country,” said Simhon. Ammonia is currently imported via the port of Haifa for the use of Haifa Chemicals. A team of experts recommended that the new facility produce the ammonia locally using abundant natural gas that has been discovered off Israel’s Mediterranean coast in recent years. Late last year Ratio Oil Exploration said it was considering building an ammonia plant in the northern Negev region to utilize natural gas from the Leviathan offshore field, which was discovered in December 2010 and has estimated reserves of 16 trillion cubic feet. The plant, with a cost estimate of $500 million, would be able to meet all domestic needs and export as well. The current facility, which stores 12,000 metric tons, has met with strong opposition from environmental groups and the Haifa Municipality due to its location in a metropolitan area. A commission appointed following the 2006 war in Lebanon recommended improved protection of the facility and the banning of the entry of vessels transporting ammonia into Haifa port during war time. In 2010 a team of experts from government ministries and private consulting firms studied various alternatives and found that the facility was well protected by international standards, but was located closer to population centers than is customary. The team recommended that an ammonia production plant be set up to supply the needs of the local fertilizer and other industries. Officials at the Environmental Protection and Industry and Trade Ministries said that the determining factor was the fear of missile attacks in the Haifa region, and that was the main reason for the decision to shut the facility down and find an alternative location.

CVR expects more UAN in 1Q 2013, plans to increase storage options

CVR Partners LP, which owns a nitrogen plant in Coffeyville, Kan., expects its $135 million UAN expansion to begin operations in the first quarter of 2013. “Once completed, the expansion will allow us to convert virtually all of our ammonia production into more highly-valued UAN,” CVR President and CEO Byron Kelley told analysts Feb. 23. “This will increase our capacity to more than 1 million tons of UAN annually, which is approximately 50 percent higher than current levels.”

As reported in Green Markets last week (GM Feb. 27, p. 14), CVR posted the best financial results in company history, with most of that due to increased UAN volumes and prices.

With respect to the expansion, Kelley said all major contracts have been awarded and mechanical and structural work has commenced.

CVR estimates that the expansion could add at least $.25 per unit to the 2013 full-year distribution. Another $.25 per unit would be added since there is no planned turnaround in 2013.

“We had an excellent year in 2011,” said Kelley. “We’re seeing base fundamentals for another very good year in 2012, and we see a solid prospect for a strong 2013.”

Turnarounds occur every other year. There will be one in October 2012 for 18-20 days, and the foregone revenues and operating expenses are estimated to negatively impact results by $.25 per unit.

In the meantime, Kelley said the target date for the completion of its new 10,000 st storage distribution tank facility at Phillipsburg, Okla. (GM Nov.14, 2011, p. 1), is third quarter 2012. The contracts have been awarded, and dirt work is slated to begin in March.

Kelley said the facility will allow CVR to selectively store some production during periods of lower pricing and then sell and market that product during peak periods later in the year, thereby allowing CVR to capture increased margins per UAN tons sold. “Over the next several years, we do plan to build a number of these facilities near farming communities across the Midwest.” CVR has previously noted that it might also build storage and market product out of Wynnewood, Okla., where CVR Energy bought the Gary-Williams Energy Corp. refinery last year (GM Nov. 14, 2011, p. 1).

Overall, CVR Partners expects to spend $110-$115 million in capital expenditures in 2012.

Kelley also told analysts that CVR is looking to expand its sales mix to some higher-margin products such as diesel emission fluid (DEF). “And in addition to investing in our current asset base and enhancing our distribution capabilities and optimizing our sales mix, we are evaluating other opportunities to expand that business by developing new facilities and acquiring existing assets.”

PotashCorp 1Q potash capacity at 40 percent; Delaney weighs in on corn

Potash Corp. of Saskatchewan Inc. Chief Operating Officer and Executive Vice President David Delaney told attendees of the Bank of America Merrill Lynch Global Hedge Fund Conference Feb. 29 that the company’s potash capacity will run at only 40 percent of capacity during the first quarter of 2012. Delaney said the company is continuing its long-held strategy of matching supply with demand, which began back in 1987. “But we do think the market will start to kick in here in March, and we truly believe the 55-58 million mt demand mark for the year.”

Delaney was asked whether increased brownfield production coming online in the next few years might cause the company to lower prices instead of cutting production.

“We are not going to oversupply the market,” said Delaney. “We do think there will be growth, but at the end of the day … you can give up price, but it’s not always easy to get back. So we’re going to really focus on really maximizing our margins as much as we can.”

Delaney said the company will be taking 30 weeks of downtime between late December and the end of March. He believes negotiations with the Chinese will wrap up by the end of March and that the country will take 6.5 million mt, producing some 4 million mt themselves for total consumption of 10.5 million mt.

Delaney also weighed in on USDA’s recent projection of 94 million acres of corn in the U.S. in 2012. “We think there is some down side…. Number one, that’s a lot of acres to get planted here this spring. We think the incremental acres will be in South Dakota. So those are not the best producing, yielding acres.”

Delaney thinks there is a downside to USDA’s projections of 164 bushels per acre, saying to get there you would need ideal conditions across the board – early planting, good weather, and good harvest conditions. He also noted extremely dry conditions in northwest Iowa and dryness in parts of Minnesota and the Dakotas. “We haven’t had a lot of snow cover in the Midwest this winter. So there’s a moisture deficit already in some of the key growing regions of the country.”

Sirius has no plans to pull out of North Dakota

Bismarck, N.D.—Press reports indicating that Sirius Minerals and its subsidiary, Dakota Salts, are giving up on potash mining in North Dakota because of disappointing tests results are not true, according to a top Sirius executive. “We’re still active,” asserted J.T. Starzecki, a senior manager for the company’s U.S and Australian interests, by long-distance and email from Australia. “In no way shape or form are we done with North Dakota. That’s just not the case.” Last week’s Associated Press report from Bismarck had a Dakota Salts contact stating that test results were not up to expectations, and that North Dakota potash deposits are “not on the front burner” of the company’s plans.” North Dakota State Geologist Ed Murphy responded for Green Markets that he had no information indicating a Sirius pullout. Murphy said he has had recent conversations with company officials and a couple of emails in the last six weeks, and “they have not expressed that to me.” He said he couldn’t comment on reports that Dakota Salts had gotten unexpected test results. Starzecki reacted to the AP report from Sirius’ Sidney office, saying that of course Sirius Minerals as an organization is focused on its lead project, which is York Potash in the United Kingdom. He added, “But as part of our overall business model, we have a portfolio of projects that we are looking to advance in various capacities. We have land exploration tenements in Australia, the U.S., and the U.K., and those make up the Sirius Minerals exploration portfolio. Specifically with North Dakota, we are evaluating our next steps for the project. Last year we launched a regional study of the area to see if what we saw in our first drill core was a local anomaly or a regional anomaly. With that additional data, we have been able to develop a few new paths to advancing the project, and are working internally to decide on the best course of action moving forward. It should be known that in no, way, shape or form is Sirius Minerals saying that the project is being closed down. Quite the contrary, we are actively looking at some exciting avenues for the project. York Potash is our lead project, but we continue to advance the other projects within our portfolio.”