US Gulf:
NOLA urea trades
during the week were reported at $311-$322/st FOB for September, up from last
week’s $308-$318/st range, with the low concluded early in the week and the
high reported for business on Sept. 12. First-half October business was
reported at the $316/st FOB level at midweek.
US Imports:
July
urea imports firmed 122.3%, to 147,494 st from the year-ago 66,358 st. Imports
from Russia were 119,806 st, followed by 11,026 st from Canada. Trinidad and
Tobago shipped 9,917 st.
US Exports:
July
urea exports were noted at 142,342 st, a 94.7% increase on the year-ago 73,109
st. Exports to Argentina totaled 42,265 st, followed by 37,580 st to Canada and
35,296 st to Chile.
Eastern Cornbelt:
Urea
was unchanged at $350-$370/st FOB in the Eastern Cornbelt, with the low
reported out of spot Illinois River terminals. The Cincinnati, Ohio, urea
market remained at $360-$365/st FOB in early September.
Western Cornbelt:
Urea firmed to $345-$370/st FOB in the Western
Cornbelt, up from the prior $340-$365/st range, with the low reported at Port
Neal, Iowa. The St. Louis, Mo., market was pegged at $355-$365/st FOB during
the week, up $10/st from last report.
Northern Plains:
Urea
firmed to $355-$375/st FOB St. Paul, Minn., up from $350-$360/st FOB in late
August, with delivered urea pegged at $385-$420/st in the Northern Plains,
depending on location.
Northeast:
Urea prices in the Northeast edged up slightly, to
$370-$380/st FOB from the prior $365-$380/st range, with the low reported at
Fairless Hills, Pa., and the high at Baltimore, Md.
Eastern Canada:
Urea prices in Eastern Canada slipped to
C$592-$645/mt FOB in early September, below the prior C$700/mt high.
India:
National
Fertilizers Ltd. (NFL) has formalized awards totaling 1.17 million mt from its
Aug. 29 tender. Almost immediately, award winners began looking for ships to
move about 600,000 mt out of the Arab Gulf. Additional tons are expected to
come from Malaysia and Brunei.
The
Indian government is reportedly watching the weather closely. The current rains
appear strong, suggesting robust urea demand from farmers. There are reports
that urea reserves, reported at 7 million mt when the tender closed, have since
moved closer to 6 million mt, marking a significant drawdown in product.
Black
Sea:
Prilled
urea softened to $295-$300/mt FOB this week in the Black Sea.
Mediterranean:
Renewed urea activity in France was
reported at $370-$375/mt CFR, but prices in the other Mediterranean markets
were still circulating at $360/mt CFR, according to traders, and do not yet
reflect updated Egyptian levels, which climbed to $360/mt FOB.
Southeast Asia:
There
was limited granular urea activity reported in the region as the main exporters
assess the feasibility of sending volumes to India. Theoretical netbacks from
India were in the $325-$330/mt FOB range.
Small
sales in the region at levels above $330/mt FOB were reported, but some
producers continue to quote closer to $350/mt FOB, emboldened by rising prilled
urea prices, while Pupuk’s most recent tender remained at $366/mt FOB. As a
result, granular urea in Southeast Asia was noted at $330-$366/mt FOB.
Indonesia:
Producers
are waiting to see if the strengthening trend in urea prices holds before
calling a selling tender, sources said. If Pupuk calls the tender too soon,
said one trader, the injection of a large quantity of urea into the market
could tank prices. If Pupuk waits too long, however, selling opportunities
might disappear.
Egypt:
The
week showed steadily strengthening urea prices out of Egypt. The week opened
with MOPCO and NCIC each selling 10,000 mt at $355/mt FOB. Abu Qir quickly
added another 10,000 mt at the same price. Toward the end of the week an
unnamed producer sold a cargo for $357/mt FOB, and NCIC sold 6,000 mt at
$360/mt FOB.
All
the purchases were made for European deliveries in September, sources said. The
price is expected to remain firm, as the Ethiopian Agricultural Businesses
Corp. (EABC) will be closing its 250,000 mt tender on Sept. 17. Egyptian urea
has played a growing role in the Ethiopian market.
Middle
East:
It
appears that at least 600,000 mt has been booked out of the Arab Gulf to cover
awards from the NFL/India tender. The onrush of traders talking with producers
and vessel operators to secure loading times was the area’s main activity this
week. No new spot inquiries or offers were reported, leaving the price in the
upper-$320s/mt FOB.
Sources
reported inquiries from traders looking for backing in the EABC/Ethiopia tender
that will close on Sept. 17. In general, producers have been able to secure a
premium on pricing into the Ethiopian tenders. In recent years, however,
Egyptian producers have increased their presence in these tenders, replacing
product from the Arab Gulf.
South
Korea has been stepping up inquiries to Arab Gulf producers to replace tons
that would previously have been supplied by China. The export restrictions
imposed by the Chinese government have left South Korea desperate to find urea,
mostly for its pollution-control programs.
Qatar
has replaced China as South Korea’s single largest urea supplier. According to Trade
Data Monitor, Qatar accounted for 23% of urea imports to South Korea in
January-July – up 3% from the same period in 2023 – compared to 17% from China.
The export restrictions imposed by Beijing have forced South Korea to look
farther afield. Buying urea from the Arab Gulf is more expensive for the South
Koreans, but a new government budget addendum is expected to help ease the pain
of those higher costs.
MIS
in Iran reportedly held a tender this week for three lots of 30,000 mt each.
There were no details available as Green Markets went to press.
While
the government and producers publicly set their lowest acceptable price at
$295/mt FOB, most bids in private talks fell closer to $290/mt FOB, sources
reported. The new official price reflects a drop of $2/mt from the old official
price of $297/mt FOB. In addition to the tons from MIS, at least two other
cargoes are reportedly available from Iran.
China:
Softer
factory prices continue to circulate, with the latest price showing a
$270-$275/mt FOB equivalent for prilled urea.
Sources
said the estimated export price under discussion is just talk. Because the
Chinese government is not allowing any urea to be exported in quantity, the
export price is simply a mathematical exercise that is unlikely to reflect what
the real price would be if exports were allowed.
One
trader noted that these mathematical exercises will continue until Beijing
eases its limits on urea exports. So far, it continues to appear as if the
restrictions will stay in place through December.
South
Korea:
When
China first imposed restrictions on urea exports in 2021, South Korea was hit
immediately, as the country depended on Chinese urea for its pollution-control
devices. Without urea, diesel cars and trucks in the country would have to stop
operating.
At
the time, buyers for South Korea worked every contact available to secure the
needed tons. Seoul also contacted Beijing to see if a government-to-government
deal could be worked out that would not run afoul of the reasons China first
imposed its export restrictions.
China’s up-and-down export policies prompted the South Korean government to begin easing its reliance on Chinese urea. Chinese urea accounted for 46-75% of South Korea’s total urea imports in 2020-2023. Unfortunately for buyers, urea from other sources was more expensive.
Qatar
has replaced China as the single largest supplier to South Korea in the
year-to-date. According to Trade Data Monitor, roughly 115,000 mt – or
23% of South Korea’s imports – have come from Qatar. Vietnam supplied another
22.5% of the imports, compared to China’s 17% share of the import market.
This
year the South Korea government created a special committee to secure vital
supplies for the country. In addition to urea, the committee looked at other
chemicals and petroleum products. The government accepted a plan to help
importers purchase urea from non-China sources, creating a $2.2 million fund to
support urea importers.
According
to a government release, the funds will be used to cover 50% of the difference
between the Chinese price and the higher price from other sources, mitigating
but not erasing the higher prices.
Brazil:
Brazil
granular urea prices remained at $355-$360/mt CFR, unchanged from the prior
week. Players reported limited liquidity, with buyers showing minimal interest
north of $350/mt CFR while most sellers held offers at $360/mt CFR and above.
In the domestic market, urea prices rose to $480-$500/mt FOB Rondonópolis. With no significant movement observed in the international market and much of the global supply directed to India, Brazilian suppliers took the opportunity to increase inland prices.
August urea imports totaled
775,000 mt, a 60% increase from August 2023. Oman accounted for more than 200,000 mt in
August, surpassing combined historical volumes from Oman and Iran, while Russia
nearly doubled its year-ago totals to about 180,000 mt. Other origins such as
Qatar and Nigeria also showed significantly higher volumes.
January-August
totals were up 12% year-over-year, to 4.4 million mt, with Nigeria leading Oman
as the largest supplier.
Argentina:
Urea
prices in Argentina firmed to $370-$375/mt CFR despite a general pause in the
market, rising from last week’s $365-$375/mt CFR range, with low-side offers reportedly
no longer available as the market prepares for wheat planting. Domestic prices,
reportedly holding below replacement levels, continue to stifle importer
demand.