All posts by dhouder1@bloomberg.net

Crops/Weather

Crops/Weather, Eastern Canada, Eastern Cornbelt, Indicators, Northeast, Northern Plains, Western Cornbelt

Eastern Cornbelt:

US Drought Monitor

Summer temperatures in the upper-80s were reported in northern Illinois during the week, while southern areas of the state were expecting potentially heavy rain from the remnants of Hurricane Francine late in the week. The heaviest rain was predicted on Sept. 13-15 for locations south of I-70.

Rain from Francine was also expected in southern Indiana and parts of southern Ohio, though forecasts said the precipitation will not be “heavy or prolonged” in either state. Conditions remained dry in northern Indiana and Ohio, with highs falling from the mid-80s to the 70s as the week progressed.

Growers in Illinois and Indiana had 1-2% of the corn in the bin by Sept 8, with good or excellent ratings assigned to 70-75% of the corn and soybeans in Illinois, 68% in Indiana, 59% in Michigan, and 47-49% in Ohio.

Western Cornbelt:

Hot weather and dry conditions were reported across Iowa and Nebraska during the week, with highs reaching the upper-80s and low-90s in many locations.

Similar conditions were reported in western Missouri, while eastern areas of the state were expecting potentially heavy rain late in the week from the remnants of Francine. Forecasts warned of up to 1.5 inches of rain in areas east of Springfield, while areas to the west will likely remain dry.

Good or excellent ratings were assigned on Sept. 8 to 73% of the corn and soybeans in Iowa and Missouri and 65-67% in Nebraska, with 13% of the Missouri corn crop in the bin by that date, compared with just 1% in Nebraska. Missouri’s cotton and rice were 63% and 69% good or excellent, respectively, with 28% of the rice crop harvested by Sept. 8.

Corn Wheat Soybean Index

Northern Plains:

Warm, hazy conditions continued across the Northern Plains during the week, with highs reaching the mid- to upper-80s in parts of South Dakota and southern Minnesota. The late summer heat is expected to continue into mid-month, though weekend forecasts warned of possible rains in the region.

Moderate to severe drought was expanding across western areas of the Dakotas, with abnormally dry conditions reported across much of northern Minnesota and along the southern edge of the state.

USDA on Sept. 8 rated 67-70% of South Dakota’s corn and soybeans as good or excellent, compared with 62-67% in North Dakota and 58-62% in Minnesota. South Dakota’s sorghum was 74% good or excellent with 5% of the crop rated as mature. The harvest of oats, spring wheat, and barley had progressed by Sept. 8 to 97-100% complete in South Dakota, 89-94% in Minnesota, and 79-89% in North Dakota.

Northeast:

Dry, warm weather was reported across New England during the week, with highs reaching the 80s as the week progressed. Similar conditions were noted in Pennsylvania and New York during the week. Though little impact was expected from Francine in the region, some areas were anticipating moderate rainfall by the weekend.

With 4% of Pennsylvania’s corn rated as mature as of Sept. 8, USDA placed 68% of the crop in the good or excellent categories on that date.

Eastern Canada:

Strong storms brought heavy precipitation and gusty winds to the Maritimes on Sept. 7, with reports of 86 mm of rain falling in Halifax and 110 mm in Bridgewater, Nova Scotia. The system also produced 71 km/h winds that knocked out power to some locations.

Nova Scotia was hit with heavy rain again on Sept. 10, but dry, warmer weather was on tap for the balance of the week. Warmer temperatures were also reported across Quebec and Ontario as the week progressed, with highs climbing to the upper-20s C and humidex readings reaching the low-30s C.

Transportation

Arkansas River, Illinois River, Mississippi RIver, Ohio River, Transportation, U.S. Gulf

US Gulf:

Hurricane Francine made landfall near Morgan City, La., early on Sept. 12 as a Category 2 storm, the first hurricane to make landfall in Louisiana since 2021. Most Gulf Coast shipping operations were suspended ahead of Francine’s arrival, and sources reported additional barges en route to the area on Sept. 12 to aid in restarting operations.

Prior to the hurricane’s landfall, sources noted tighter towing restrictions on movements above New Orleans due to low water levels. Northbound loading drafts were reduced by 20-25% above NOLA, up from 10-15% noted previously, while southbound drafts were cut by 15-20%. Tow lengths were rolled back by 5-10 barges, depending on vessel horsepower. Delays were estimated in the 24-72 hour range.

Guidewall repairs at Bayou Sorrel Lock are projected to continue through Oct. 30, limiting movements from 7 a.m. to 4 p.m. daily. No lockages were reported on Sept. 11-12 due to Hurricane Francine.

Repairs at Brazos Lock blocked weekday travel between 7 a.m. and 7 p.m. Most wait times were noted in the 5-12 hour range, though a handful of delays were posted up to 57 hours. The effort is scheduled to run through October.

Harvey Lock remained shut during the week due to reverse head conditions. No tows have locked through the site since Aug. 27, Corps data indicated.

Port Allen Lock, Industrial Lock, Algiers Lock, Bayou Boeuf Lock, and Calcasieu Lock were offline on Sept. 12, Corp data showed. Prior to closing on Sept. 11, Industrial Lock showed wait times up to 18 hours on Sept. 9-10. Movements were delayed up to 13 hours through Colorado Lock in the western Gulf during the week, while intermittent Brazos Lock waits were reported above the 50-hour mark.

Mississippi River:

Towing restrictions intensified during the week due to low water levels on the lower river. Loading drafts on northbound tows were reduced by 20-25%, rising from 10-15% at last report, while southbound loading drafts were slashed by 15-20%, depending on location. Tow lengths were reduced by 5-10 barges, subject to vessel horsepower, stretching delivery times by an estimated 24-72 hours.

The gauge at Vicksburg, Miss., was noted at a low-stage 5.0 feet and falling on Sept. 12. Forecasts called for area levels to recede to 2.7 feet on Sept. 26. The St. Louis gauge was posted at 1.3 feet and falling at midweek, and the Memphis, Tenn., gauge returned a low-stage (-)7.9-foot reading on Sept. 12. Memphis was projected to slide to (-)8.9 feet in the two-week forecast.

Dike work at Mile 759 forced daily shutdowns on southbound travel between 7 a.m. and 7 p.m. The effort is scheduled to run through Sept. 18, with no impact to upriver travel expected.

Pipeline removal at Mile 158 is underway through Sept. 24. While no shutdowns are expected, channel restrictions could slow travel while work is in progress, sources said.

Final release dates for NOLA-loaded barges bound for upper-river ports between Dubuque, Iowa, and St. Paul, Minn., were expected in the first week of October, sources said. Tows leaving from NOLA for unloading between St. Louis and Clinton, Iowa, will see final releases through the third week of October. Upper-river locks will undergo seasonal shutdowns between December and March 2025.

Illinois River:        

Maximum loading drafts were reported at 9.25 feet for Miles 1-231 of the Illinois River, down from 9.5 feet at last check. Drafts were 9.0 feet for tows moving above Mile 231. Lockport Lock at Mile 291 is scheduled to shut completely on Jan. 14-March 11, 2025, for vertical lift gate installation, blocking movements to and from the Chicago area.

Ohio River:

Maximum Ohio River loading drafts fell to 10 feet for both northbound and southbound travel during the week, off from 10-10.5 feet noted previously. Tow lengths were capped at 15 barges for the full length of the river.

Work begun on Sept. 8 at the Markland Lock main chamber will force detours through the auxiliary chamber for 19 hours daily through Oct. 6. Delays were noted up to 16.5 hours during the week.

The Hannibal Lock primary chamber is offline for miter gate repairs through Nov. 8, triggering waits as high as 18 hours. McAlpine Lock is closed to southbound travel from 7 a.m. to 7 p.m. through Nov. 30, with delays reported up to nine hours. Belleville Lock will experience a round of 30-day main and auxiliary chamber shutdowns before the end of the year.

Delays were reported up to 16 hours at Kentucky Lock, on the Tennessee River. Intermittent 11-14 hour waits were noted at Wilson Lock during the week.

Arkansas River:

The Van Buren Bridge at Mile 300.8 returned from repairs on Sept. 6, sources said, two days ahead of schedule. Webbers Falls Lock, closed for miter gate inspections since late August, resumed navigation on Sept. 8.

Ammonia

Ammonia, Brazil, Eastern Cornbelt, Market Watch, Northern Plains, Northwestern Europe, Southeast Asia, Tampa, U.S. Exports, U.S. Gulf, U.S. Imports, Western Cornbelt

US Gulf/Tampa:

Tampa ammonia continued at July’s $415/mt CFR settlement, with no indications reported for August. While Cornbelt prices edged higher based on new fall prepay programs announced during the week, international markets were flat on limited demand and slightly lower European natural gas prices.

US Imports:

Ammonia imports fell 1.9% in July-May, according to data released by the US Census Bureau, to 2.19 million st from 2.24 million st in the prior year. May imports moved 28.4% lower, to 210,860 st from the year-ago 294,294 st.

Canada sent 1.10 million st to the US in the July-May fertilizer year-to-date, Trinidad and Tobago shipped 939,336 st, and Algeria moved into third place with 99,200 st.

US Exports:

Ammonia exports fell 19.4% in July-May, to 1.02 million st from the year-ago 1.27 million st. May cargoes were counted at 108,418 st, a 21.1% decline from the 137,368 st reported one year earlier.

Morocco took 307,568 st of ammonia in July-May, followed by Norway with 224,824 st. Chile received 94,138 st, and Mexico purchased 87,518 st.

Eastern Cornbelt:

Fall prepay ammonia offers were launched on July 9 at $505/st FOB terminals in Illinois and Indiana for 4Q shipment from all producers, up from recent prompt pricing in the $460-$475/st FOB range for limited offers. Sources reported “good buying” at the prepay level during the week.

Western Cornbelt:

Ammonia prices for fall prepay offers were reported at $500/st FOB Nebraska terminals, $505/st FOB Palmyra, Mo., and $510/st FOB Iowa terminals during the week, with delivered offers quoted at the $530/st level in Missouri.

Fall prepay ammonia programs were also circulating in the Southern Plains at $470/st FOB Enid and Woodward, Okla., $480/st FOB Verdigris, Okla., and $490/st FOB Dodge City, Kan., with truck-DEL prepay offers at the $525/st level in Kansas.

Northern Plains:

Fall prepay offers for ammonia were announced during the week at $515/st FOB Velva, N.D., and Glenwood, Minn., $520/st FOB Murdock, Minn., and $525/st FOB Grand Forks, N.D. for 4Q shipment. Delivered prepay business was reported in the $530-$550/st DEL range in North Dakota during the week.

Northwest Europe:

Despite no confirmed spot sales, the Northwest Europe ammonia spot market remained at $460-$470/mt CFR, continuing to find support in Algerian values of $430/mt FOB and in the higher Tampa settlement for July.

On the bearish side, natural gas prices in Europe have eased, with the Dutch TTF forward month now at $9.20/MMBtu and downstream nitrates demand remaining seasonally muted.

Southeast Asia:

Ammonia in Southeast Asia was reported at $350-$400/mt FOB. The Indonesian producer continued to indicate $400/mt FOB for spot sales while buyers in the Far East quoted lower values around $350/mt FOB for product originating in Southeast Asia.

Brazil:

January-June ammonia imports totaled 186,000 mt, according to Trade Data Monitor, up 18% from the year-ago 158,000 mt. Trinidad supplied 160,000 mt, for about 86% of the first-half imports, followed by Turkey with 25,000 mt. Second-quarter imports were 78,000 mt, a marginal increase from 75,000 mt in April-June 2023, while June imports of 30,000 mt were down from the 38,000 mt purchased in June 2023.

First-half ammonia exports totaled just 80 mt, down from 33,000 mt in first-half 2023. Brazil only exports ammonia when it has excess material on hand, sources said.

Urea

Black Sea, Brazil, China, Eastern Canada, Eastern Cornbelt, India, Indonesia, Market Watch, Mediterranean, Middle East, Northeast, Northern Plains, Pakistan, Southeast Asia, U.S. Exports, U.S. Gulf, U.S. Imports, Urea, Western Cornbelt

US Gulf:

NOLA urea narrowed to $288-$298/st FOB for July business during the week, falling within the prior week’s broader $288-$302/st FOB range. Very limited trading was confirmed ahead of the Southwestern Fertilizer Conference in Nashville, Tenn., on July 14-18.

US Imports:

Urea imports firmed 14.1% in July-May, to 5.22 million st from 4.58 million st in the same period of 2022-2023. May imports were off 38.0%, however, dropping to 478,348 st from the year-ago 771,385 st.

July-May imports from Russia were 1.53 million st. Qatar sent 1.10 million st, Algeria shipped 569,381 st, and Saudi Arabia sent 485,933 st.

US Exports:

May urea exports were noted at 51,103 st, a 39.6% increase on the year-ago 36,610 st. July-May volumes were off 43.2%, however, at 762,091 st compared to the 1.34 million st reported one year earlier.

Exports to Canada totaled 548,125 st in July-May, followed by 93,519 st to Mexico and 77,185 st to Chile.

Eastern Cornbelt:

Urea was unchanged at $365-$375/st FOB in the Eastern Cornbelt, with the low confirmed at Cincinnati, Ohio, and the high out of inland warehouses. Most Illinois River terminals remained at the $370/st FOB level for July-August tons. The low end of the Great Lakes urea market was steady at the $365/st FOB level in Michigan.

Western Cornbelt:

Urea in the Western Cornbelt remained at $345-$365/st FOB, with the low reported at St. Louis, Mo. The Port Neal, Iowa, market was pegged at $350-$355/st FOB for limited offers on forward sales.

Northern Plains:

Urea remained at $360-$380/st FOB regional terminals in the Northern Plains. Inventories were described as very tight, with the higher end of the range confirmed for limited offers for forward sales at St. Paul, Minn. Delivered urea was pegged at $400-$440/st in North Dakota, with the low out of unit train facilities.

Northeast:

Urea pricing in the Northeast slipped to $370-$375/st FOB Fairless Hills, Pa., and $375-$380/st FOB Baltimore, Md., down $10/st from mid-June.

Eastern Canada:

Urea remained in a broad range at C$592-$700/mt FOB in Eastern Canada in mid-July.

India: 

The Indian Potash Ltd. (IPL) tender closed on July 8. Nineteen companies offered a total of 2.7 million mt, though many of those offers are likely duplicates, sources said.

OQ Trading set the lowest price for East Coast delivery, offering 100,000 mt at $365/mt CFR, about $26/mt above the East Coast price from the March Rashtriya Chemicals and Fertilizers Ltd. (RCF) tender. The lowest West Coast offer came from Liven at $350.50/mt CFR for 50,000 mt, a $2.50/mt increase on the West Coast award in the prior Indian tender.

IPL Urea Tender Results

Offering Company Quantity WCI $/mt CFR
Liven             50,000 350.50
OQ Trading           300,000 351.00
Continental           100,000 352.00
Medallion             50,000 353.10
ETG/Agricommodity             45,000 355.50
Samsung             90,000 358.70
Alkagesta             45,000 360.00
Aditya Birla             50,000 368.40
Indagro             42,500 369.40
Fertiglobe             45,000 370.00
Hexagon             50,000 371.26
Ameropa           194,300 372.00
FertiStream             47,500 372.00
Dreymoor             90,000 372.00
RE Energy             50,000 372.91
Midgulf           100,000 377.00
MacroSource             45,000 379.50
Koch             47,500 379.80
Total        1,441,800  
Offering Company Quantity ECI $/mt CFR
OQ Trading           100,000 365.00
ETG/Agricommodity             45,000 366.00
Continental           100,000 366.00
Samsung             90,000 367.70
Medallion             50,000 368.10
Alkagesta             45,000 370.00
Hexagon             50,000 371.26
Indagro             42,500 373.40
Sun International           100,000 374.15
Fertiglobe             45,000 377.00
Aditya Birla             50,000 377.40
Koch             47,500 377.90
Ameropa           194,300 378.00
Dreymoor             90,000 378.00
FertiStream             47,500 379.00
Midgulf           100,000 382.00
MacroSource             45,000 385.50
Total        1,241,800  

Sources drew immediate attention to the wide price gap between the two coasts. While the disparity typically runs close to $5/mt to account for the extra freight costs from the Arab Gulf to the East Coast, the current tender’s nearly $15/mt gap can provide Arab Gulf suppliers with better netbacks for East Coast sales compared to the West Coast.

As Chinese urea is not available in large quantities, sources had predicted that Arab Gulf and Russian material would dominate the tender offers. The West Coast price represents a netback to Russian Baltic ports of $290/mt FOB and to Arab Gulf producers in the low-$330s/mt FOB, a lackluster level for both groups. The estimated East Coast netback to the Arab Gulf was put in the low-$340s/mt FOB, however, a price that has already been achieved from the AG and a level that producers want to maintain.

Counterbids were initially made to the next 10 lowest offers for West Coast delivery. One trader said the move made sense, as the landed price was much lower than the East Coast price. As the July 10 deadline approached, however, there were no responses to the counterbids, prompting IPL to extend the deadline to July 11.

Reports indicate that two shipments totaling 80,000 mt were ultimately offered. Sources said Continental and Aditya Birla will be supplying the product.

Rumors that IPL was ready to counterbid East Coast deliveries despite the higher price were reported late on July 11. Sources said IPL issued the counterbids to all the companies offering tons for West Coast ports.

The Liven and OQ Trading offers secured 150,000 mt for IPL. The rumored additional 80,000 mt from Continental and Aditya Birla puts IPL’s potential take at 230,000 mt, well below even the most pessimistic predictions for the tender. Going into the tender, sources were expecting purchases up to 700,000 mt, with the Arab Gulf supplying at least 400,000 mt of that amount.

However, the low West Coast price established a netback to the Arab Gulf well below what producers were willing to take. Soon after the prices were revealed, several traders began discussing a maximum purchase of just 400,000 mt, and possibly as little as 300,000 mt. The East Coast netback, however, is closer to the producers’ desires, leaving the possibility that additional tons might still be secured.

The next lowest offers for the West Coast were from OQ Trading with 300,000 mt at $351/mt CFR and Continental’s 100,000 mt at $352/mt CFR. Facing a spread of just $0.50/mt and $1.50/mt, respectively, from the lowest price, sources said these two companies might have been able to accept the IPL counterbid without a major financial impact.

As previously noted, however, only Continental has accepted the counterbid, and with fewer tons than in the initial offer. Because of the better netbacks offered in the $365/mt CFR East Coast price, more companies are likely to accept the counterbid.

The tender’s shipping deadline is Aug. 27. Regardless of how many tons IPL ultimately buys, sources said India’s next tender is unlikely to be called before late August.

Pakistan:       

Trading Corp. of Pakistan (TCP) called a tender for 150,000 mt to close on July 29. The call came after talks with Turkmenistan for a government-to-government supply deal reportedly fell through.

The TCP tender calls for the tonnage to arrive by Sept. 25. The documents divide the deliveries into three distinct periods in August, with each period involving either one 50,000 mt cargo or two 30,000 mt shipments. The size of the vessel will be determined by the discharge port.

The government earlier approved the import of 200,000 mt of urea. In recent years, TCP arranged government-to-government deals after that authorization was granted. The last was in late 2023, when TCP bought 220,000 mt from Azerbaijan, Russia, and the UAE.

The use of government-to-government deals has been helpful to Pakistan, which maintains limited hard currency reserves. These limited funds – and the possibility of delayed payment – have in the past led some traders to avoid participating in tenders.

Black Sea:                                                                                                                           

Black Sea prilled urea moved up to $310-$315/mt FOB.

Mediterranean:

European buyers have been closely watching developments with the IPL urea tender and in Egypt, where gas supply has been restored and producers are reportedly ramping up operations. Buyers in the Mediterranean are in no rush, however, as highlighted by the lack of new indications and inquiries in Spain and Italy.

In France, liquidity for fresh offshore tons was reported around $400/mt CFR, while FCA prices reflected closer to a $410/mt CFR equivalent. This week, granular urea in the Mediterranean was quoted higher at $385-$400/mt CFR.

Southeast Asia:

The Southeast Asia granular urea market was reported at $350-$366/mt FOB this week. Pupuk Indonesia awarded its 30,000 mt granular urea tender, which closed on July 5at $366/mt FOB Bontang, to the buyer Universal Harvester. No further granular sales were reported, with Petronas still down at Bintulu and Brunei reportedly committed through August.

Indonesia:     

Pupuk surprised the urea industry by calling a selling tender for 30,000-45,000 mt of granular urea to close on July 5, before the close of the Indian tender. Prices from the Pupuk tender were released just as the numbers from the Indian tender were also becoming available.

Pupuk sold 30,000 mt at $366/mt FOB to Universal Harvester, of the Philippines, surprising many players. Recent sales from regional producers Malaysia and Brunei had closed in the low-$350s/mt FOB. Going into the tender, sources were predicting a price range of $350-$352/mt FOB out of Indonesia.

Universal Harvester may have been under pressure to supply material to a contract holder in the Philippines, one trader speculated, and bid a high price to ensure it got the tons it needed. As the week closed, sources had not heard of any additional sales at the tender’s price level.

After a Pupuk granular tender is awarded, the producer normally engages in talks with other potential buyers. Pupuk’s last tender, for 45,000 mt, settled at $312/mt FOB. Following talks with other buyers, Pupuk ultimately sold 278,000 mt at the tender price.

The high price in the new tender appears to be keeping potential buyers away, however. Sources said it would be very difficult for a trader to find a home for the product at the current price level.

Middle East: 

Arab Gulf producers were expected to be the primary suppliers of urea in the IPL/Indian tender, and sources estimated that at least 400,000 mt would find its way from the Middle East to Indian ports.

However, the lowest West Coast price of $350.50/mt CFR indicates a netback well below producers’ pricing expectations. Pricing to India’s East Coast at $365/mt CFR appears to offer a better opportunity for producers.

The large price gap between the East and West Coasts allows for a higher netback to the Arab Gulf if sales can be made under the Indian tender. Because of the lower price, however, IPL’s first counterbid was only made to traders who offered sales into India’s West Coast. The netback to the Arab Gulf from the West Coast price was put in the mid-$330s/mt FOB, well below producers’ expectations.

The estimated netback from an East Coast sale falls in the low-$340s/mt FOB, an area where producers have already secured deals. While an East Coast sale would not push the price into the $350s/mt FOB as producers have been arguing, it also does not force a price reduction.

Egyptian production is reportedly ramping up as natural gas supplies return to normal. MOPCO already has two plants operating at 80% of rated capacity, sources said, and other facilities were also said to be nearing an 80% production rate. Only a few smaller companies are taking longer to return to normal output.

Producers need the tons currently being manufactured not only to build reserves, sources said, but also to replace tons sold under swap deals during the short period when production was halted. If production rates continue to increase, one trader said the producers will be in good shape to offer tons for August and September shipment.

For now, the focus is on covering old deals and building reserves, and no new spot sales were reported from the area.

China:

Sources described prilled and granular urea at parity when discussing estimated export prices for the week. Mixed messages are coming out of China, however, with some reports citing an export-equivalent price in the upper-$320s/mt FOB and others claiming a price in the low-$330s/mt FOB.

The variance could easily be attributed to differences in plant location and regional urea demand, one trader noted. Regardless of the price level, however, sources said prices are still too high and reserves too low for government export inspectors, and players do not anticipate any urea exports of significance until September.

Reserves are expected to begin building this month and into August as more plants slowly ramp up production. Some production facilities are coming off routine maintenance turnarounds, while others are reacting to the government’s encouragement to step up production. The government is reportedly anxious to see plants operating at 80% of rated capacity. The average is reportedly closer to 60%, with some plants running as low as 20-30% of capacity.

Some sources are also reporting that the inspection process is being stretched up to 30 days, beyond the usual 14 days. At the same time, the inspectors are also insisting on reviewing the contracts for exports with a particular focus on payment methods. This, said one trader, is adding another two weeks to the review process.

Brazil:

The decrease in domestic corn prices has incentivized growers to delay nitrogen purchases for the second corn crop, typically delivered in the fourth quarter. Ample global supply has further eroded support for higher prices, players said.

Brazil granular urea prices increased $5/mt at the bottom of the range to settle at $360-$365/mt CFR, with new offers reported at $370/mt CFR. Despite widespread availability of sanctioned product during the week, buyers were focused on securing phosphates, resulting in limited demand for nitrogen. Offers were noted at $475-$495/mt FOB Rondonópolis, a $5/mt decline from last week.

January-June imports firmed 8% year-over-year, Trade Data Monitor reported, to 3 million mt from 2.8 million mt. Nigeria shipped 658,000 mt, followed by Oman with 574,000 mt and Qatar with 548,000 mt. Second-quarter imports lifted slightly, to 1.5 million mt from 1.4 million mt in April-June 2023.

June imports totaled 606,000 mt, a more than 50% year-over-year increase, with approximately 25% of the tonnage coming from Oman. Venezuela added 33,000 mt.

UAN

Eastern Canada, Eastern Cornbelt, France, Market Watch, Northeast, Northern Plains, U.S. Exports, U.S. Gulf, U.S. Imports, UAN, Western Cornbelt

US Gulf:

NOLA UAN slipped to $202-$205/st ($6.31-$6.41/unit) FOB based on the latest offers, down slightly from last week’s $207-$210/st ($6.47-$6.56/unit) FOB range. Some sources said they expect a new round of fill prices to launch either during or after the Southwestern Fertilizer Conference, with recent terminal business described as quiet following earlier fill offers.

US Imports:

July-May UAN imports softened 9.9% year-over-year, to 2.39 million st from 2.65 million st. May imports were down 2.4%, to 299,827 st from 307,086 st. Russia sent 1.30 million st for July-May. Trinidad and Tobago shipped 489,141 st, ahead of 445,600 st from Canada. 

US Exports:

UAN exports softened 30.2% in July-May, to 1.53 million st from the year-ago 2.19 million st. May shipments were 109,951 st, down 10.7% from 123,091 st in May 2023. Australia purchased 384,064 st of UAN from the US in July-May, France took 375,889 st, and Argentina received 241,608 st.

Eastern Cornbelt:

UAN-32 fill offers continued at $245-$275/st ($7.66-$8.59/unit) FOB in the region, with the low reported at Mount Vernon, Ind., and the high at Terre Haute, Ind. The Cincinnati market was steady at $248-$255/st ($7.75-$7.97/unit) FOB for UAN-32 and $217-223.13/unit ($7.75-$7.97/unit) FOB for UAN-28.

Western Cornbelt:

UAN-32 fill pricing in the Western Cornbelt was unchanged at $240-$265/st ($7.50-$8.28/unit) FOB regional terminals, depending on location, with the St. Louis market reported at the $244-$250/st ($7.63-$7.81/unit) FOB level during the week.

Northern Plains:

The UAN-28 market was quoted in a broad range at $245-$265/st ($8.75-$9.46/unit) FOB and up to $315/st ($11.25/unit) DEL in the Northern Plains in mid-July.

Northeast:

UAN-32 in the Northeast was quoted at $280-$285/st ($8.75-$8.91/unit) FOB, down from the previous $285-$295/st ($8.91-$9.22/unit) FOB range, with the low confirmed at Fairless Hills and the high at Baltimore. The latest offers out of terminals in upstate New York were reported at the $325/st ($10.16/unit) FOB level, down from $340/st ($10.63/unit).

The 27-0-0-3S market remained at $258/st FOB Baltimore, while 28-0-0-5S was steady at the $292/st level FOB Baltimore.

Eastern Canada:

UAN-28 pricing in Eastern Canada remained at C$406-$460/mt (C$14.50-$16.43/unit) FOB in mid-July, while the UAN-32 market in Ontario continued at the C$464/mt (C$14.50/unit) FOB level.

France:

No further UAN sales were reported at Rouen this week, as both buyers and sellers are reportedly comfortable through the summer months. Prices were unchanged at €245-€265/mt FCA.

Ammonium Nitrate

Ammonium Nitrate, Brazil, Market Watch, U.S. Exports, U.S. Imports, United Kingdom, Western Cornbelt

US Imports:

May ammonium nitrate imports firmed 51.0%, to 38,172 st from the year-ago 25,280 st. Imports totaled 306,398 st in July-May, up 3.9% from 294,758 st in the prior year. Canada sent 248,498 st in July-May, Russia followed with 54,907 st, and China added 1,057 st.

US Exports:

Ammonium nitrate exports firmed 29.6% in July-May, to 734,939 st from the year-ago 567,234 st. May exports were counted at 49,451 st, however, dropping 26.8% from the 67,539 st reported one year earlier. Canada received 383,417 st of US product in July-May, Mexico purchased 253,542 st, and Lithuania took 39,690 st.

Western Cornbelt:

Ammonium nitrate was unchanged at $345-$360/st FOB in the Western Cornbelt, with both the high and low reported in Missouri.

United Kingdom:

Despite no new price announcement from CF, ammonium nitrate in the UK was quoted higher at £330/mt CPT based on list prices for July through October, with the lower £320/mt CPT offer no longer valid.

Brazil:

January-June ammonium nitrate imports totaled 354,000 mt, Trade Data Monitor reported,down 13% from the year-ago 408,000 mt. Russia shipped 308,000 mt, for 87% of the imports, followed by the US with 31,000 mt.

Imports fell 17% in the second quarter, to 184,000 mt from the 223,000 mt received in April-June 2023. June imports were also down, slipping to 69,000 mt from 86,000 mt in June 2023.

Ammonium Sulfate

Ammonium Sulfate, Brazil, China, Eastern Canada, Eastern Cornbelt, Market Watch, Northeast, Northern Plains, Northwestern Europe, U.S. Exports, U.S. Imports, Western Cornbelt

US Gulf:

Aggressive summer fill offers in the Midwest during the week pushed NOLA ammonium sulfate barge pricing down sharply, to $255-$275/st FOB from the last confirmed spring business at $385-$390/st FOB.

US Imports:

Ammonium sulfate imports for July-May firmed 42.4% year-over-year, to 1.16 million st from 817,743 st. May imports were 107,348 st, however, down 29.1 % from 151,494 st in the year-ago period. Imports from Canada were noted at 480,599 st for July-May, ahead of 231,290 st from Belgium. The Netherlands shipped 140,971 st.

US Exports:

Ammonium sulfate exports softened 3.8% in May, to 41,317 st from the year-go 42,944 st. July-May exports were 588,527 st, down 16.6% from the prior 705,956 st. Exports to Peru totaled 184,683 st in July-May, followed by Canada with 78,089 st. Mexico took 65,261 st, ahead of 51,695 st to the Dominican Republic.

Eastern Cornbelt:

Granular ammonium sulfate summer fill offers were launched during the week at a reported $305-$310/st FOB Cincinnati and other river terminals and $315-$320/st FOB inland warehouses, with rail-DEL offers quoted at $320/st in Illinois, Indiana, and Ohio and $325/st in Michigan.

AdvanSix moved its granular reference prices on July 12 to $320/st FOB Cincinnati and Owensboro, Ky.; $325/st FOB Delphi, Ind., Lordstown, Ohio, Maumee, Ohio, and Wayland, Mich.; and $330/st FOB Saginaw, Mich., and Webberville, Mich. Mid-grade reference prices from the company included $295/st FOB Byron, Ill., and Tolono, Ill.

Western Cornbelt:

Granular ammonium sulfate fill program offers were reported at $305/st FOB St. Louis early in the week for orders placed by July 11. Granular postings from AdvanSix moved on July 12 to $325/st FOB Sioux City, Iowa, and Upper Mississippi River warehouses, with inland warehouses maintaining a traditional premium over river locations.

Northern Plains:

Summer fill offers for granular ammonium sulfate dipped to $310-$330/st DEL in North Dakota during the week. Granular postings from AdvanSix on July 12 included $325/st FOB St. Paul, Winona, Minn., and Prairie du Chien, Wisc., and $330/st FOB Brooten, Minn., and Amherst Junction, Wisc. Mid-grade ammonium sulfate was referenced at $295/st FOB Winona.

Northeast:

The prompt granular ammonium sulfate market remained at $415-$430/st FOB and $415-$425/st DEL in the Northeast. While summer fill programs were circulating in the Midwest, sources reported no offers on the table in the Northeast during the week.

Eastern Canada:

Granular ammonium sulfate pricing in Eastern Canada was reported at C$510-$555/mt FOB for fill program offers during the week, down from the last prompt business at C$570-$675/mt FOB.

Northwest Europe:

The standard ammonium sulfate market in Northwest Europe was range-bound this week, with several small sales reported at the prior $160-$170/mt FOB level. Granular prices were down $5/mt on the high end based on updated bid-offer spreads.

China:

Growing demand for ammonium sulfate from domestic NPK producers is creating upward price pressure. Nevertheless, the price in China remained at $135-$145/mt FOB for caprolactam grade amsul during the week.

Additional pressure is being felt in the capro grade market due to reports of reduced production of other grades of amsul, forcing buyers to bid on capro grade material instead. That pressure, said one trader, is coming not only from domestic and regional buyers, but also from major overseas buyers such as Brazil.

Brazil:

Brazil granular ammonium sulfate fell $10/mt, to $175-$185/mt CFR. Trading rumored at $170/mt CFR went unconfirmed, prompting most business to rebound toward the range’s upper end during the week.

Players noted rising amsul demand in Rondonópolis as growers attempt to improve barter ratios for second corn crop purchasing. Discussions were quoted in the $300-$325/mt FOB range, off from $305-$330/mt FOB in the previous week.

First-half amsul imports stood at 1.4 million mt, according to Trade Data Monitor,a 7.5% decline from the 1.5 million mt received through January-June 2023. China remained Brazil’s primary supplier with 1.4 million mt, accounting for 95% of the import market.

Second-quarter imports were reported at 608,000 mt, off 20% from the 757,000 mt received through the same period of 2023. June 2024 imports were also down, to 143,000 from 326,000 mt in June 2023.

DAP/MAP

Baltic Sea, Bangladesh, Benelux, Brazil, Central Florida, China, DAP/MAP, Eastern Canada, Eastern Cornbelt, India, Market Watch, Morocco, Northeast, Northern Plains, U.S. Exports, U.S. Imports, Western Cornbelt

Central Florida:

Central Florida MAP trucks firmed to $670/st FOB from last week’s $620/st FOB, while DAP continued at $570/st FOB. North Florida MAP postings were stable at $630/st FOB.

US Gulf:

Phosphate trading reportedly ground to a halt this week at NOLA, with sources pointing to weak grain prices combined with a lack of pressure on sellers to entertain lower bids. In the absence of confirmed trades, NOLA DAP and MAP barges were unchanged at $535-$545/st FOB and $645-$650/st FOB, respectively.

US Imports:

DAP imports for July-May firmed 71.9%, to 1.50 million st from the year-ago 873,975 st. May imports fell 95.0%, however, to 6,365 st from 126,160 st in May 2023. July-May imports from Saudi Arabia were reported at 937,180 st, followed by 294,902 st from Jordan and 126,765 st from Egypt.

May MAP/Other imports totaled 9,220 st, a sharp 88.5% decline from the year-ago 80,353 st. July-May volumes totaled 875,269 st, however, up 11.1% from 788,123 st in the prior year. Saudi Arabia remained atop the seller list with 272,232 st in the fertilizer year-to-date, ahead of 196,482 st from Mexico. Tunisia shipped 175,777 st.

US Exports:

With no new spot business reported, the US Gulf export markets continued at $550/mt FOB for DAP and $570/mt FOB for MAP.

July-May DAP exports were counted at 433,702 st, down 37.2% from the year-ago 690,272 st. May shipments fell 8.7%, to 52,005 st from 56,981 st in the prior May. US DAP sellers sent 95,398 st to Peru in July-May, ahead of 70,444 st to Uruguay and 59,130 st to Brazil. Mexico, Canada, and Colombia followed with 48,557 st, 48,042 st, and 46,975 st, respectively.

MAP/Other exports moved 6.4% lower in May, to 219,006 st from 234,053 st in May 2023. July-May exports softened 4.4%, to 1.97 million st from the year-ago 2.06 million st. Canada received 1.62 million st of MAP from the US in July-May, ahead of 111,136 st to Australia and 44,190 st to Brazil. Mexico bought 43,686 st, slightly ahead of Colombia’s 43,637 st.

Eastern Cornbelt:

DAP slipped to $585-$610/st FOB in the Eastern Cornbelt, with the low reported out of spot Illinois River terminals. MAP was pegged at $685-$695/st FOB in the region, with the low reported at Ottawa, Ill. Cincinnati pricing remained at $605-$610/st FOB for DAP and $685-$695/st FOB for MAP during the week.

Western Cornbelt:

DAP dropped to $580-$600/st FOB in the Western Cornbelt, down from $590-$620/st FOB the week before, with the low reported at St. Louis. MAP firmed to $685-$695/st FOB in the region, up from $670-$690/st FOB, with the lower end once again confirmed at St. Louis market.

Northern Plains:

DAP pricing in the Northern Plains slipped to $595-$605/st FOB St. Paul, while MAP edged up to $700-$710/st FOB St. Paul on reports of tight supply.

Northeast:

DAP was down sharply in the Northeast, to $610/st FOB East Liverpool, Ohio, well below the prior $675/st FOB level. MAP remained at $700/st FOB East Liverpool in mid-July.

Eastern Canada:

MAP pricing in Eastern Canada was reported at C$955-$995/mt FOB, with DAP quoted at C$925/mt FOB Montreal.

Benelux:

DAP prices in Benelux moved up $5/mt on the high end, to $660-$670/mt FCA at midweek exchange rates. Despite the slight increase, the pace of sales remains seasonally slow.

Morocco:

DAP prices were stable at $500-$615/mt FOB in the region. The Moroccan producer continued its robust DAP deliveries to both Western and Eastern European markets, achieving netbacks in the $600-$615/mt FOB range. Tunisian prices have also moved up, with the latest business heard around $610/mt FOB.

Baltic:

MAP prices in the Baltic edged up to $580-$590/mt FOB, reflecting rising Brazilian CFR values.

China:

Sources used the Bangladesh DAP tender to estimate the latest China export price. After removing freight, bagging, and spillage from the tender’s lowest price of $645/mt CFR bagged, sources estimated the China DAP export price at $600/mt FOB.

Players expect to see China supplying the bulk – if not the totality – of the 390,000 mt of DAP to be shipped to Bangladesh in the coming months. The deliveries to Bangladesh will likely represent the largest single set of DAP shipments made from China. No new large deals are expected.

India: 

After two DAP tenders were scrapped last week, sources said a deal was quietly done at an estimated $555/mt CFR. While the source of the DAP was not revealed, Chinese production can be eliminated at this price level, players said.

Bangladesh:  

Bangladesh will purchase 390,000 mt of DAP in multiple shipments over the next few months at a reported price of $645-$695/mt CFR bagged. Unlike India, which counterbids companies using its tender’s lowest offer price, Bangladesh buyers simply work their way down the list of offers, accepting each offer until the desired amount of product is reached.

Brazil:

MAP imports firmed $10/mt, to $630-$640/mt CFR, though possible further increases were tempered by credit restrictions, affordability issues, and logistics concerns. Lower-concentration MAP 11-44 and MAP 10-45 products were quoted in the $520-$525/mt CFR range with limited availability.

Rondonópolis MAP negotiations were reported at $755-$785/mt FOB, down $5/mt from the prior week. Quotes for fourth-quarter delivery ran as high as $815/mt FOB.

MAP imports fell significantly in the first half of the year, according to Trade Data Monitor, to1.8 million mt from the 2.3 million mt received during the same period of 2023. Russia sent 1.1 million mt, Morocco shipped 405,000 mt, and Saudi Arabia followed with 222,000 mt.

Second-quarter imports were steady year-over-year at 1.2 million mt, while June imports were pegged at 441,000 mt, up 41% from the year-ago 313,000 mt.

TSP

Brazil, Eastern Cornbelt, Market Watch, Triple Superphosphate, U.S. Gulf, Western Cornbelt

US Gulf:

The NOLA TSP market was quiet during the week, leaving prices steady at $500-$512/st FOB.

Eastern Cornbelt:

TSP was steady at $550-$565/st FOB in the Eastern Cornbelt, with the high confirmed at Cincinnati.

Western Cornbelt:

TSP remained at $540-$550/st FOB in the Western Cornbelt.

Brazil:

Limited supply continued in the Brazil TSP market. Late-August offers – the market’s only available loading window for the week – were noted at $500-$510/mt CFR, up 13.3% from the last reported $450/mt CFR transaction. TSP remained unavailable at Rondonópolis.

SSP

Brazil, Market Watch, SSP

Brazil:

Landed SSP 19-21 pricing continued at $225-$250/mt CFR amid a backdrop of reduced demand and widespread availability.

With sources citing strong supply, Rondonópolis prices moved up to $360-$380/mt FOB, a $10/mt increase at the high end of the range. With higher-concentrate phosphates hard to come by in the current market, players are reportedly turning to SSP for use in some blends.