All posts by hlancey@bloomberg.net

Ammonium Thiosulfate

Eastern Cornbelt:

The ammonium thiosulfate market was unchanged at $270-$285/st FOB in the Eastern Cornbelt, with the low reported at Terre Haute, Ind., and the high at Cincinnati. The latest fill offer in central Michigan was quoted at the $300/st DEL level.

Western Cornbelt:

Ammonium thiosulfate remained at $250-$275/st FOB in the Western Cornbelt, with both the high and low confirmed in Iowa.

Southern Plains:

Ammonium thiosulfate prices slipped to $215-$225/st FOB in Texas, down $15-$20/st from last report.

South Central:

Ammonium thiosulfate pricing dropped to $260-$265/st FOB Memphis, down significantly from the $300-$305/st FOB reported in late July.

CAN

Germany:

The German CAN market saw some improved activity this week, with several inquiries circulating. While there were no reports of Yara’s new price of €295/mt CIF being realized, other offers were reported in the €275-€280/mt CIF range, pushing this week’s range up to €265-€280/mt CIF based on bid-offer spreads.

Crops/Weather

Eastern Cornbelt:

US Drought Monitor

High heat and humidity blanketed much of the Eastern Cornbelt during the week, with heat advisories in effect for multiple locations and heat index readings climbing to 105-110 degrees in parts of Illinois and Indiana.

Northern Ohio also experienced intense late summer heat, with highs on Aug. 29-30 reaching the low-90s and heat indices touching the upper-90s. Scattered showers were in the region’s forecast for the Labor Day weekend, however.

USDA on Aug. 25 reported that 9-10% of the corn crop in Illinois and Indiana was mature, with good or excellent rating assigned to 73% of the acreage in Illinois, 71% in Indiana, 66% in Michigan, and 49% in Ohio. Soybeans in the good or excellent categories totaled 71% of the crop in Indiana, 64% in Illinois, 62% in Michigan, and 48% in Ohio.

Western Cornbelt:

Strong thunderstorms pushed through northeastern Missouri and southeastern Iowa on Aug. 27, causing wind and hail damage in Burlington, Iowa, and Rutledge, Mo. Rainfall totals of 2-4 inches were reported in some areas, along with 70-80 mph winds. Hailstorms also battered parts of central Nebraska on Aug. 26.

The storms were preceded by sweltering heat, with daily record highs in the mid- to upper-90s reported in multiple locations across the region.

Good or excellent ratings were assigned to 77% of the corn and soybeans in Iowa on Aug. 25, compared with 75-78% in Missouri and 68-71% in Nebraska. Missouri’s rice and cotton were 71% and 57% good or excellent, respectively, while 77% of Nebraska’s sorghum crop fell into those two categories on Aug. 25.

Southern Plains:

Corn Wheat Soybean Index

Much of the Southern Plains baked under sweltering heat for most of the week, though showers and cooler temperatures were on tap for the Labor Day weekend. Highs were expected to dip to the 70s and 80s by the weekend, down from the mid- to upper-90s.

Earlier in the week, strong thunderstorms dropped 1-3 inches of rain in just three hours in parts of central Texas. New Mexico was bracing for potentially heavy rain on Aug. 29-30, with forecasts warning of flash flooding in the Sangre de Cristo Mountains.

Crop conditions continued to show the effects of drought in the region. Just 26% of Texas cotton was rated as good or excellent as of Aug. 25, compared with 45% in Oklahoma and 55% in Kansas. The Kansas soybean crop was 60% good or excellent, while just 45% of the state’s corn fell into those two categories, compared with 41% in Texas and 38% in Colorado.

The Texas sorghum crop was 67% harvested by Aug. 25, with good or excellent ratings assigned to 47% of the acreage, compared with 42% in Kansas, 52% in Colorado, and 59% in Oklahoma.

South Central:

Scattered showers and thunderstorms in Arkansas and Tennessee on Aug. 29 also brought cooler weather after intense heat earlier in the week. Heat advisories were in effect at midweek for portions of eastern Arkansas, northern Mississippi, Kentucky, and western Tennessee, with highs reported in the mid- to upper-90s.

Good or excellent ratings were assigned to 67% of Kentucky corn crop on Aug. 25, compared with 49% in Tennessee, with 25-36% of the crop rated as mature in those two states. Soybeans in the good or excellent categories totaled 73-74% of the acreage in Arkansas and Louisiana, 60% in Kentucky and Mississippi, and 51% in Tennessee.

Fully 78% of the Arkansas cotton crop was rated as good or excellent, compared with 69% in Louisiana and 51-53% in Tennessee and Mississippi. With the rice harvest now 80-84% complete in Louisiana and Texas and 23% in Arkansas and Mississippi, USDA placed 84% of Louisiana’s crop in the good or excellent categories, along with 76% of the acreage in Arkansas, 58% in Mississippi, and 54% in Texas.

Southeast:

Highs in the upper-90s and low-triple digits were common across much of the Southeast during the week, prompting heat advisories and sparking thunderstorms that were severe in some areas. A flood watch was in effect on Aug. 28 for parts of Virginia after storms unleashed 2-4 inches of rain within an hour or two.

Crop conditions varied considerably in the region in late August. While just 11% of North Carolina’s corn was rated as good on Aug. 25, 55% of the state’s soybean crop was rated as good or excellent on that date. Cotton in the good or excellent categories totaled 71% of the acreage in Virginia, 68% in North Carolina, 56% in Alabama and Georgia, and 48% in South Carolina.

The peanut crop was 90% good or excellent in Virginia, compared with 77% in North Carolina, 68% in Alabama and Florida, 62% in Georgia, and 60% in South Carolina.

Transportation

US Gulf:

Falling water levels on the Lower Mississippi River forced stronger towing restrictions on travel above New Orleans. Vessels traveling northbound saw loading drafts reduced by 10-15%, up from 5% at last report, while tow lengths were cut by 5-10 barges, depending on vessel horsepower. Delivery times were stretched by an estimated 24-72 hours as a result, sources said.

Bayou Sorrel Lock guidewall work, slated to run through Oct. 30, restricted travel between 7 a.m. and 4 p.m., pushing delays to as high as 31 hours during the week, Corps data indicated, up from 22 hours at last report. Dredging reported last week in the New Orleans Harbor was scheduled to wrap up on Aug. 26.

Repairs at Brazos Lock are anticipated to continue into October, limiting weekday travel from 7 a.m. to 7 p.m. Waits were reported up to seven hours during the week, falling from 25 hours at last check.

Harvey Lock was completely shut on Aug. 19-27 due to reverse head conditions, sources said. Lock operators passed a handful of vessels on Aug. 27, though no lockages were observed on Aug. 28-29.

Port Allen Lock delays were quoted up to seven hours during the week, while sources noted intermittent 3-11 hour delays at Industrial Lock. Most Algiers Lock wait times fell in the 16-25 hour range, and tows transiting Leland Bowman Lock waited up to five hours to pass.

Mississippi River:

Towing restrictions intensified during the week due to reduced water levels on the lower river, sources noted.

Tows traveling upriver saw loading drafts reduced by 10-15%, intensifying from 5% at last report. Southbound loading drafts were cut by 15-20% on travel between Cairo, Ill., and Rosedale, Miss., up from 5-10% last week, while southbound drafts were slashed by 10-15% from Rosedale to New Orleans.

Additionally, barge counts were rolled back by 5-10 units, sources said, depending on vessel horsepower. The restrictions were likely to delay travel times by an estimated 24-72 hours, sources said.

The river gauge at Vicksburg, Miss., posted at 9.7 feet and falling on Aug. 29, was forecast to sink to a low-stage 4.3 feet by Sept. 12. The St. Louis gauge was noted at 2.9 feet and holding on Aug. 29, while the Memphis gauge was projected to move below the (-)5-foot low stage on Aug. 30.

Navigation closures for dike work were reported at Mile 759 in the southbound direction between 7 a.m. and 7 p.m. daily. The project is scheduled through Sept. 18, with no impacts to upriver travel expected.

A pipeline removal effort at Mile 158 is scheduled to continue through Sept. 24. No shutdowns were anticipated, though channel restrictions could limit travel while work is underway. Planned revetment projects at Miles 775 and 908 will block southbound travel during daylight hours on Sept. 1-5. Intermittent 4-11 hour delays were noted at Lock 24 during the week.

Many NOLA-loaded barges headed to upper-river ports are scheduled to begin final releases in October, sources said. Tows destined for ports between Dubuque, Iowa, and St. Paul, Minn., will release from NOLA during the first week of October, while tows traveling between St. Louis and Clinton, Iowa., will depart as late as the third week of October. Upper-river locks will close between December and March 2025 for the winter navigation season.

Illinois River:        

Loading drafts on the Illinois River continued at a maximum 9.5 feet for Miles 1-231 and nine feet above Mile 231.

Lockport Lock will close for vertical lift gate installation from Jan. 14 to March 11, 2025, according to Corps posting, blocking travel to and from the Chicago area. Peoria Lock wait times were reported up to five hours during the week.

Ohio River:

Low water levels on the lower Ohio River held draft limits to a maximum 10-10.5 feet, depending on location and direction of travel, sources said. Tow lengths topped out at 15 barges.

Normal travel through the Markland Lock primary chamber is scheduled to resume on Aug. 30, temporarily ending a period of daily 19-hour shutdowns, though the closures are scheduled to return between Sept. 8 and Oct. 6. Waits were posted up to 14 hours during the week.

The main chamber at Hannibal Lock is closed through Nov. 8 for miter gate repairs, triggering delays up to eight hours, down from 23 hours at last report. Downriver travel is unavailable through McAlpine Lock from 7 a.m. to 7 p.m. through Nov. 30, with delays posted up to 12 hours.

Belleville Lock will undergo 30-day main and auxiliary chamber shutdowns before the end of the year, sources said.

Wait times were noted up to seven hours at John T. Myers Lock. On the Tennessee River, Kentucky Lock delays were quoted up to 13 hours, and tows waited up to 27 hours to pass Wilson Lock. Construction at the Monongahela River’s Lock 3 ended on Aug. 28, sources said.

Arkansas River:

Van Buren Bridge repairs that began on Aug. 22 are underway through Sept. 8. Crews will attempt to pass waiting vessels following the ninth day of work, sources said, though shuttle barges will be able to pass whenever the channel is free of equipment.

Webbers Falls Lock closed on Aug. 26 for miter gate inspections. The project is scheduled to continue through Sept. 8.

Canadian Government Orders Binding Arbitration to End Railroad Work Stoppage

Canada’s two biggest railways closed operations early Thursday after contract negotiations with union leaders failed, shutting down 80% of the country’s rail network and immediately blocking arteries of North American supply chains that carry about C$1 billion ($740 million) per day in trade.

More than 9,000 employees at Canadian National Railway Co. (CN) and Canadian Pacific Kansas City Ltd. (CPKC) were locked out after a deadline passed at midnight without an agreement on a new contract. Members of the Teamsters Canada Rail Conference (TCRC) had voted to strike over a number of issues, including scheduling and worker fatigue.

Late on Aug. 22, however, Canadian Labor Minister Steven MacKinnon directed the Canada Industrial Relations Board (CIRB) to impose final binding arbitration on the parties. MacKinnon also ordered the CIRB to direct the parties to extend their current labor contract, and said the railways should resume operations “forthwith.”

Both CN and CPKS released statements on Aug. 22 saying they had ended the lockout and were preparing to restart operations following MacKinnon’s announcement. CN said it ended its lockout at 6 p.m. Eastern time and has started a recovery plan.

“While CN is satisfied that this labor conflict has ended and that it can get back to its role of powering the economy, the company is disappointed that a negotiated deal could not be achieved at the bargaining table despite its best efforts,” the company said in a statement.

CPKC also said it is preparing to restart operations. “The government has acted to protect Canada’s national interest,” CEO Keith Creel said in a statement. “We regret that the government had to intervene because we fundamentally believe in and respect collective bargaining.”

The TCRC on Aug. 23 confirmed that union members had taken down picket lines at CN and would begin returning to work on Friday. The union cautioned, however, that the work stoppage at CPKC “remains ongoing” pending an order from the CIRB.

“Despite the Labor Minister’s referral, there is no clear indication that the CIRB will actually order an end to the labor dispute at CPKC,” the TCRC said, adding that it would meet again with the CIRB Friday morning. TCRC President Paul Boucher said the union would review the minister’s referral and the CIRB’s response, and would consult with legal counsel to determine the next steps.

“By resorting to binding arbitration, the government has allowed CN and CPKC to sidestep a union determined to protect rail safety. Despite claiming to value and honor the collective bargaining process, the federal government quickly used its authority to suspend it, mere hours after an employer-imposed work stoppage,” Boucher said. “The Teamsters Canada Rail Conference is deeply disappointed by this shameful decision.”

The work stoppage on Aug. 22 had an immediate impact on shipments of fertilizer, wheat, chemicals, and other goods. An Aug. 21 estimate from Moody’s Corp. warned that the work stoppage could cost Canada as much as C$341 million ($251 million) per day.

The strike was a big topic of conversation at Fertilizer Canada’s annual conference in Montreal on Aug. 19-21. The trade group on Aug. 20 issued a statement urging the Canadian government to “take immediate action,” warning that a work stoppage “will have devastating impacts on Canada’s economy, our reputation as a reliable trading partner, and global food security.”

The railways move an average of 69,000 mt of fertilizer product per day, and 90% of Canadian-produced fertilizer destined for the US market is delivered by rail. Disruptions impacting all rail services across the country will cost the fertilizer industry an estimated C$55-$63 million per day in lost sales revenue, not including logistical and operational costs, Fertilizer Canada said.

“In the last seven years, Canadian supply chain labor disruptions have cost the fertilizer industry nearly a billion dollars,” said Karen Proud, Fertilizer Canada President and CEO. “These stoppages are doing immense damage to our reputation as a reliable trading partner. Our customers, who rely on Canadian fertilizer products, are being forced to turn to our competitors in Russia, Belarus, and China. We can’t afford for our railways to shut down, and we can’t afford a passive approach to our supply chains any longer. We need long-term solutions.”

Fertilizer shipments were among the first the feel in the impact of the looming strike. Both CN and CPKC issued embargoes halting certain ammonia shipments a full 10 days ahead of the Aug. 22 work stoppage (GM Aug. 16, p. 1). Additional embargoes followed, including US railways halting shipments to Canada as services began to slow down.

In an Aug. 22 statement, CN said it has negotiated “in good faith” with the TCRC and made a final offer to the union ahead of the lockout, but the union did not respond. “Without an agreement or binding arbitration, CN had no choice but to finalize a safe and orderly shutdown and proceed with a lockout,” CN said. “The Teamsters have not shown any urgency or desire to reach a deal that is good for employees, the company, and the economy.”

CPKC also issued a statement on Aug. 22, saying it had “executed a safe and structured shutdown of its train operations” across Canada when it became clear that an agreement with the TCRC was not within reach. CPKC also renewed its push for binding arbitration to end the dispute, which the railroads had urged in June but the offer was rejected by the TCRC (GM June 7, p. 1)

TCRC President Paul Boucher responded by saying the fault lies with the railroads and not the union. “Despite reaping billions in profits over the years, CN is demanding concessions that would drag working conditions back to another era,” Boucher said.

“They don’t care about supply chains, farmers, or small businesses – their sole focus is on padding the pockets of their managers and shareholders, with little regard for the safety or well-being of employees,” he continued. “Make no mistake – corporate greed is what brought us here. The biggest sticking points are company demands, not union proposals. The Teamsters remain committed to negotiating in good faith and doing everything possible to achieve a fair and equitable agreement.”