US Gulf/Tampa:
Several market sources said Tampa ammonia for September will likely see
an increase from August’s $475/mt CFR, fueled by firming international and
domestic prices. The looming rail strike in Canada, and the length of any work
stoppage should an agreement fail to be reached, was also impacting the North
American market.
Recent
sales out of Trinidad to buyers in Northwest Europe were confirmed in the
$550-$555/mt CFR range for approximately 25,000 mt scheduled for delivery in
first-half September.
US
Imports:
Ammonia
imports fell 5.2% for the July-June 2023/24 fertilizer year, according to US
Census Bureau data, to 2.32 million st from 2.45 st in the prior year. June
imports moved down 39.8%, to 129,557 st from the year-ago 215,157 st.
Canada
sent 1.20 million st to the US for the fertilizer year, Trinidad and Tobago
shipped 972,964 st, and Algeria sent 99,200 st.
US Exports:
Ammonia
exports slipped 13.5% in July-June, to 1.17 million st from the year-ago 1.35
million st. June cargoes were noted at 146,302 st, however, a 76.1% increase
from the 83,091 st reported one year earlier.
Morocco
took 380,850 st of ammonia in July-June, followed by Norway with 239,984 st.
Chile received 99,650 st, and Mexico purchased 96,631 st.
Eastern Cornbelt:
Ammonia firmed to
$535-$560/st FOB in the Eastern Cornbelt, depending on location and time of the
week, up from last week’s $520-$550/st FOB, with sources citing the looming
rail strike in Canada as a possible driver of the increase.
CF and Koch
ammonia terminals in Illinois and Indiana reportedly moved to the $545/st FOB
level or higher on Aug. 15 after reports of $535/st FOB earlier in the week,
while offers at East Dubuque, Ill., firmed to $560/st FOB from the prior
$550/st FOB level.
Western Cornbelt:
Ammonia prices in
the Western Cornbelt strengthened to $545-$560/st FOB during the week, up from
last week’s $520-$550/st
FOB range. Prices also moved up in the Southern Plains, with the latest offers
firming to $505-$515/st FOB Oklahoma production points and $510/st FOB
Coffeyville, Kan.
California:
Ammonia reference
prices in California were steady at $680/st DEL for anhydrous and $187-$197/st
FOB for aqua ammonia.
Pacific Northwest:
Ammonia prices dropped to $545/st FOB
terminals for anhydrous and $145/st FOB for aqua ammonia in the Pacific
Northwest. No current delivered prices were confirmed in mid-August. Sources
said they expect higher postings soon, however, with some producers withholding
offers until the Canadian rail strike is resolved.
Western Canada:
Ammonia remained
at C$775/mt FOB Medicine Hat, Alta., for October-November offers, with
delivered fall tons in Western Canada slipping to C$875-$900/mt from earlier
offers in the C$900-$910/mt DEL range.
Northwest
Europe:
With
natural gas firmly above $11.5/MMBtu in Europe and supply tight, the latest
ammonia business ex-Algeria reportedly reflects a $550-$560/mt CFR Northwest
Europe price, up from the prior $510-$550/mt range. Recent sales by Nutrien out
of Trinidad to buyers in Northwest Europe were also confirmed in the
$550-$555/mt CFR range at midweek.
Some
players expressed doubt that the
market’s rapid price development can be repeated and sustained, however,
pointing to a depressed downstream nitrates market.
Southeast
Asia:
Ammonia
availability was improving in the region, with both Indonesia and Malaysia
reported to have export capacity with price ideas in the $380s/mt FOB. No spot
business has yet concluded, however, leaving prices stable at $350-$400/mt FOB.