US Gulf:
New NOLA urea business was confirmed
during the week at $300-$307/st FOB for January physical tons, with most volume
trading at the $305/st FOB level. February trades were reported in the
$310-$312/st FOB range. Those levels were up from the last reported range of
$292-$308/st FOB for December-January trades.
Eastern Cornbelt:
The
urea market was pegged at $355-$375/st FOB in the Eastern Cornbelt, with the
low confirmed in Illinois on a spot basis. The Cincinnati, Ohio, market was
pegged at the $365-$370/st FOB level in early January.
In
the Great Lakes region, Michigan urea prices were quoted at $385-$395/st FOB
and $405-$410/st DEL.
Western Cornbelt:
Urea prices were quoted
at $360-$390/st FOB in the Western Cornbelt, with the low confirmed at St.
Louis, Mo., and the high in Iowa on a spot basis. The Catoosa/Inola, Okla.,
urea market was pegged at the $365-$370/st FOB level in early January.
In the South Central
region, the Convent, La., urea market slipped to $350/st FOB, down from $385/st
FOB in mid-December.
Northern Plains:
The
urea market dropped to $385/st FOB St. Paul,
Minn., below the $400-$410/st FOB range reported in mid-December. Delivered
urea offers in the Northern Plains were reported in the $425-$435/st range for
fill tons and $445-$465/st DEL for spring.
Northeast:
The
latest urea prices fell to $385-$395/st FOB in the Northeast, down from the
prior $400-$410/st FOB range, with the low confirmed at Fairless Hills, Pa.,
for January tons. February-March pricing at Fairless Hills was quoted at the
$390/st FOB level.
Eastern Canada:
The
urea market slipped to C$680-$725/mt FOB in Eastern Canada, down from prior low
of C$710/mt FOB.
India:
The
National Fertilizers Ltd. (NFL) urea tender closed on Jan. 4 with 20 companies
offering a total of 2.7 million mt. The technical envelopes containing
individual tonnage offerings were opened on Jan. 5, while the envelopes with
pricing offers are not expected to be opened until Jan. 8.
Trading
companies offered 1.6 million mt for West Coast deliveries and 1.1 million mt
for East Coast facilities. An additional 45,000 mt was offered directly by PIC
on an FOB basis.
| Offering Company | Quantity (mt) |
|
Total
| West Coast | East Coast |
|
Aditya Birla Group
|
479,000
|
295,000
|
184,000
|
|
Midgulf
|
300,000
|
150,000
|
150,000
|
|
Samsung
|
270,000
|
180,000
|
90,000
|
|
Fertistream
|
180,000
|
100,000
|
80,000
|
|
OQ Trading
|
150,000
|
105,000
|
45,000
|
|
Continental
|
145,000
|
95,000
|
50,000
|
|
Dreymoor
|
121,500
|
45,000
|
76,500
|
|
Agri Commodities
|
106,000
|
71,000
|
35,000
|
|
Sun International
|
100,000
|
|
100,000
|
|
Aries
|
100,000
|
50,000
|
50,000
|
|
MacroSource
|
100,000
|
50,000
|
50,000
|
|
Keytrade
|
100,000
|
100,000
|
|
|
Koch
|
95,000
|
47,500
|
47,500
|
|
Ameropa
|
94,300
|
47,150
|
47,150
|
|
Indagro
|
94,000
|
47,000
|
47,000
|
|
Fertiglobe
|
90,000
|
45,000
|
45,000
|
|
Fertcom
|
50,000
|
50,000
|
|
|
RE Energy
|
50,000
|
50,000
|
|
|
Medallion
|
50,000
|
50,000
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
FOB
|
|
|
|
PIC
|
45,000
|
|
|
Pricing
ideas shifted as 2023 ended and the deadline for submission to NFL neared.
Market watchers initially expected offers at $310-$320/mt CFR, though
expectations shifted to $320-$340/mt CFR as the tender deadline approached. As
the week ended, however, rumors suggested that West Coast offers may drop back
to sub-$320/mt CFR levels, with East Coast offers landing in the low-$320s/mt
CFR. Awards at $320/mt CFR would represent a drop of $80/mt from the previous
tender.
Even
with the lower prices, sources expect NFL to buy just 500,000-800,000 mt in the
tender. They point to existing urea reserves of about 7 million mt and steady
pressure from the government to limit imports as a cost-saving move. Should
offers come in significantly lower than expected, there is some chatter that
NFL could take closer to 1-1.5 million mt. Sources estimate that only 2 million
mt will be offered, however, and it would be rare to see a commitment for such
a high percentage of offered tons.
The
dramatic drop in pricing expectations came as the global urea market showed
growing reserves and limited demand. India is currently the market’s only major
buyer, sources said, and India’s first-quarter demand is insufficient to
tighten the market. Demand from the global market’s other two major buyers, the
US and Brazil, is not expected to kick in until after the NFL tender’s Feb. 29
shipping deadline.
The
Indian media is beginning to report on planned subsidies in the FY2024/25
budget. Government officials claim that India will require fewer imported tons
of urea in the upcoming fiscal year and will thus be able to reduce the amount
spent on subsidies. According to the reports, the government is counting on
stepped-up domestic urea production and increased use of Nano urea to replace
imported tons.
Pakistan:
A
second lot of 100,000 mt booked from Azerbaijan was delivered to Pakistan this
week. The cargo was part of a 200,000 mt deal to fill a shortfall in urea
supplies for the current application season.
The
government of Pakistan was initially ready to call a standard tender for the
200,000 mt, but later settled on securing a government-to-government deal
instead. Talks were initiated with several urea-producing countries, and the
deal was struck with Azerbaijan. The first lot of the order was delivered
during the last week of December.
By
itself, Azerbaijan could not deliver the 200,000 mt in the brief period set by
Pakistan. Azerbaijan’s State Oil Company of Azerbaijan Republic (SOCAR)
arranged for its own material, as well as urea from the UAE, Qatar, and Russia
to be shipped to Pakistan.
The
Azerbaijan government also offered Pakistan favorable financing on the deal. In
addition to a generous payment schedule, Azerbaijan will not charge Pakistan
interest on the extended payment plan, according to local media reports.
Black
Sea:
Urea
prices in the Black Sea held steady in the first week of 2024. Prilled urea
remained at $270-$280/mt FOB.
Indonesia:
Pupuk
wasted no time offering tonnage for sale under its 2024 export permits. A
tender for 10,000-45,000 mt each of granular and prilled urea closed on Jan. 5,
with initial reports indicating that pricing for the granular material will not
shift much.
Ameropa
was reported to bid slightly above $320/mt FOB for the full 45,000 mt of
granular urea. Other bids came in around $315/mt CFR, with some bidding for
less than the full tonnage offered.
The
last Indonesian tender was settled at $321.50/mt FOB. The Ameropa bid
represents a flatness to the market that others see as softening.
There
are expectations that Pupuk will release more than the 45,000 mt if Ameropa and
other buyers are willing. In the past, Pupuk has sold more tons than it has
advertised, using the tender results to set prices for the private deals.
Sources
previously said that an award price in the $320s/mt FOB could eliminate
Indonesian tons from consideration in the NFL/India tender. However, there are
still regional buyers willing to pay a slight premium for product from
Indonesia, one trader noted, especially at a time when Chinese exports are
unavailable or severely restricted.
Middle
East:
Traders
are calling the market $315-$320/mt FOB. However, if the NFL/India tender shows
prices in the $320s/mt CFR, the netback to the Arab Gulf would run about $10/mt
lower.
The
Iranian government set its new official urea price at $290/mt FOB. Sources
quickly reported discussions in the low-$280s/mt FOB, however.
Exports
of urea from Iran softened 5% in 2023, Trade Data Monitor reported, to
4.8 million mt from 5.1 million mt. Turkey led buyers with 2.3 million mt,
followed by South Africa with 445,000 mt. Exports totaled 1.1 million mt in the
fourth quarter and 309,000 mt in December, off from last year’s 1.4 million mt
and 440,000 mt, respectively.
Buyers
of Egyptian material remained quiet following the short price run-up reported
in the last half of December. The latest deal out of Egypt was valued at
$340/mt FOB in late December. While producers are now looking for $345/mt FOB,
they face a weaker global urea market and more aggressive buyers looking for
bargains.
China:
Sources
continue to expect urea exports from China to be limited to small and
infrequent cargoes. The export constraints are anticipated to remain in force
throughout the first quarter of the year.
Thailand:
Thailand
imported 2.4 million mt of urea in January-November, Trade Data Monitor reported,
up 40% from the 1.7 million mt received in January-November 2022. November
imports were 108,000 mt, a sharp increase from 57,000 mt in November 2022.
Turkey:
Urea
imports in Turkey totaled 2.9 million mt in January-November, according to Trade
Data Monitor, a 28% increase from the year-ago 2.3 million mt. November
imports were down 45%, however, to 154,000 mt from the 282,000 mt received in
November 2022.
Brazil:
Brazil urea prices increased 2.4%, to $320-$335/mt CFR from
$310-$330/mt CFR at last report. The market remains slow as players await the
results of the Indian tender, though sources reported multiple offers of
warehouse product during the week.
The
Rondonópolis market has remained stagnant after a slight
demand increase boosted prices by 4.4% in the second week of December. Offers
were noted at $475-$480/mt FOB ex-warehouse, narrowing from $460-$490/mt FOB.
Recent rains brought favorable prospects for soybean
sowing, sources said. Soybean acres in Mato Grosso state are now 100% planted,
according to data from Brazil’s National Supply Co. (CONAB), and suppliers have
shifted the focus to deliveries for the start of corn planting in February. The
northern region of the state is reportedly facing supply difficulties due to
discharge delays in the port of Santarém.
Argentina:
Trade
Data Monitor
pegged January-November urea imports at 732,000 mt in Argentina, a 16% decline
from the 871,000 mt received during the same period of 2022. November imports
jumped 68%, however, to 172,000 mt from 71,000 mt in November 2022. Egypt
supplied 77,000 mt for the month, followed by 53,000 mt from Nigeria.
Ethiopia:
Urea
imports in Ethiopia rose 68% in 2023, according to Trade Data Monitor,
to 765,000 mt from 457,000 mt in 2022. Egypt led suppliers with 506,000 mt, and
Oman added 161,000 mt. Ethiopia registered zero imports in December, down from
24 mt in December 2022.
The
fourth quarter is generally a slow period for imports to Ethiopia, with the
bulk of the year’s shipments instead coming during the first half of the year.
Fourth-quarter 2022 imports exemplified this norm with only 301 mt received.
The 2023 urea market’s volatile nature upended the normal pattern, however,
with Ethiopia importing 208,000 mt in October-December 2023.