All posts by hlancey@bloomberg.net

Urea

Black Sea, Brazil, California, China, Eastern Cornbelt, India, Market Watch, Mediterranean, Middle East, Pacific N.W., Pakistan, Southeast Asia, U.S. Exports, U.S. Gulf, U.S. Imports, Urea, Western Canada, Western Cornbelt

US Gulf:

NOLA urea barges were generally reported at $305-$315/st FOB for August and September business, unchanged from last week, though a September trade was confirmed early in the week at a high of $317/st FOB.

US Imports:

Urea imports firmed 12.9% in July-June, to 5.55 million st from 4.91 million st in fertilizer year 2022/23. June imports were off 3.7%, however, falling to 325,567 st from the year-ago 338,118 st.

July-June imports from Russia were 1.55 million st. Qatar sent 1.15 million st, Algeria shipped 611,083 st, and Saudi Arabia sent 586,277 st.

US Exports:

June urea exports were noted at 67,170 st, a sizeable increase on the year-ago 10,310 st. July-June volumes were off 38.6%, however, at 829,261 st compared to the 1.35 million st posted one year earlier.

Exports to Canada totaled 562,894 st in July-June, followed by 110,274 st to Chile and 96,475 st to Mexico.

Eastern Cornbelt:

Urea was steady at $360-$370/st FOB in the Eastern Cornbelt, with the low confirmed at Cincinnati, Ohio.

Western Cornbelt:

Urea pricing in the Western Cornbelt remained at $345-$370/st FOB in mid-August, with the low reported at St. Louis, Mo., and the high at out of spot Iowa terminals.

California:

Granular urea in California slipped to $490-$500/st FOB Stockton for bulk tons and $560/st FOB for 50-pound bags, with no rail-DEL pricing reported. Sources said prilled urea is no longer available at San Diego.

Pacific Northwest:

The urea market remained at $415-$420/st FOB in the Pacific Northwest, with the low confirmed at Riverview, Ore. Delivered tons were reported at $420-$445/st in the region, depending on location.

Western Canada:

Urea was quoted at C$620/mt FOB and C$640-$645/mt DEL in Western Canada.

India: 

National Fertilizers Ltd. (NFL) called a urea tender to close on Aug. 29 with a shipping deadline of Oct. 31. Sources speculated that NFL will need to buy 700,000-1 million mt to meet India’s seasonal needs.

The two-week gap between the tender call and the due date for offers has become increasingly common in recent tenders. One trader said the longer time frame, in combination with the lengthier shipping deadline, will allow offering companies more time to secure tonnage.

Sources have reported growing reserves of urea in the Arab Gulf, prompting bids in the $320s/mt FOB. Even if the initial offers absorb the extra tonnage from the Arab Gulf, there will still be time for new production to fill orders into late October.

June urea reserves pegged at 11 million mt have fallen to 8 million mt in August, sources said. Good rains in major agricultural areas have increased the demand for urea, prompting supply concerns that led to the tender call.

The excess tons reportedly building in the Arab Gulf, as well as at least 100,000 mt available from Iran, have the Indian buyer hoping for a price reduction from the $350-$365/mt CFR awarded in the last tender. While Brazil will also be looking for urea in September and October, traders noted that Brazilian buyers have been aggressively pushing back against any price increases.

Pakistan:       

The second urea tender called by Trading Corp. of Pakistan (TCP) for 100,000 mt was ordered to be scrapped by the government. According to local media reports, the government cabinet objected both to the $359/mt CFR paid in the previous tender and the possibility of an even higher price in the second tender.

West Trade won the July 29 TCP tender at $358.99/mt CFR. Sources said efforts to match that price in government-to-government deals with Turkmenistan and Malaysia failed, forcing the second tender call.

The government initially authorized the two tenders following a reduction in natural gas supplied to urea producers. In reaction to the price achieved in the first tender, however, the government shifted gears and ordered gas supplies to be reinstated to producers at their previous levels.

Black Sea:

Prilled urea prices continued to fall in the Black Sea. Sources put the new price at $295-$305/mt FOB, in line with the softer prices reported from other major urea-producing areas.

Mediterranean:

Urea prices in the Mediterranean were stable this week amid minimal buying activity, despite offers in Italy and France at $385/mt CFR. The latest business in Egypt at $357/mt FOB is roughly on par with current CFR levels seen in the Mediterranean.

News of a new India tender closing on Aug. 29 had yet to impact buyer behavior on Aug. 15, but some noted that the tone was bearish because of the wide shipping window allowed by NFL. This week, granular urea in the Mediterranean was unchanged at $380-$385/mt CFR.

Southeast Asia:

No new spot granular urea business was reported in the region, with both Indonesia and Malaysia focused on prior commitments, despite some sources suggesting Indonesia may issue a tender soon. Reports of a sale in the region at $340/mt FOB could not be confirmed, resulting in an unchanged price range of $350-$366/mt FOB.

Middle East: 

Egypt’s MOPCO closed a deal this week for 5,000 mt of granular urea at $357/mt FOB for August shipment, a $5/mt decline from the last public deal from an Egyptian producer, with no other producers reporting new deals. Sources put the new target price from sellers at $360/mt FOB.

Around mid-month, buyers – mostly from Europe – have historically begun booking small lots to cover immediate demand. Once the first deal is cut, additional sales typically follow with rising prices on each subsequent sale. However, other producers have yet to follow MOPCO’s lead.

The lack of interest for August tonnage is not unexpected, sources said. Arab Gulf producers continue to process contract sales and the remaining awards issued in the previous India tender.

None of the producers seem to be chasing any spot business, and with production now returned to normal levels, sources said reserves are building at factory warehouses. The built-up reserves are likely to be significantly reduced in the upcoming NFL/India tender. Production to supply orders for the tender could be booked into October if the price is right, said one trader.

The lack of new spot business has left the public price in the low-$340s/mt FOB. However, recent talk of possible deals in the $330s/mt FOB have now been replaced by a steady drumbeat of bids in the mid- to upper-$320s/mt FOB.

Iran still has a reported 100,000 mt of granular available. The current price was noted at $329/mt FOB, though bidding appears to be concentrated in the low-$320s/mt FOB.

China:

Sources reported no change to China’s urea export policy. Some traders remain convinced that export restrictions will remain in place through the end of the year.

There were reports that TCP was talking to government officials and urea producers in China to secure a government-to-government deal for urea. However, the lack of any further information from Pakistan, the failure of other government-to-government deals, and the Pakistan government’s move to scrap a 100,000 mt tender have made a deal with China appear unlikely.

Brazil:

Granular urea prices in Brazil firmed to $350-$360/mt CFR following news of the India tender call, up from $340-$345/mt CFR at last report. While market players are anticipating a surge in demand for September cargoes, most were unwilling to pay the market’s current prices during the week. The lack of demand ground the market to a halt as buyers await further developments from the tender.

Continued low urea demand and an ongoing focus on harvesting corn and other commodities pressured the inland market, softening prices to $465-$485/mt FOB Rondonópolis.

An estimated 600,000 mt of urea is expected in the August vessel lineup, a 16% increase from the 500,000 mt imported in August 2023, indicating a significant flow of imports to meet domestic demand.

UAN

California, Eastern Cornbelt, France, Market Watch, Pacific N.W., U.S. Exports, U.S. Gulf, U.S. Imports, UAN, Western Canada, Western Cornbelt

US Gulf:

The NOLA UAN market was unchanged at $202-$205/st ($6.31-$6.41/unit) FOB NOLA for the last business, though no actual trades were confirmed during the week. The upper end of the range reportedly reflects the latest reference pricing from domestic producers.

US Imports:

July-June UAN imports softened 8.2% year-over-year, to 2.61 million st from 2.85 million st. June imports were up 14.5%, however, to 226,580 st from 197,844 st. Russia sent 1.40 million st for July-June. Trinidad and Tobago shipped 565,162 st, ahead of 495,055 st from Canada. 

US Exports:

UAN exports fell 26.3% for the fertilizer year, to 1.74 million st from the year-ago 2.36 million st. June shipments were 217,424 st, however, up 21.9% from 178,313 st from the prior year. France purchased 428,800 st of UAN from the US in July-June, Australia took 384,064 st, and Argentina received 241,608 st.

Eastern Cornbelt:

UAN-32 remained at $240-$265/st ($7.50-$8.28/unit) FOB regional terminals in the Eastern Cornbelt, with the low reported at Mount Vernon, Ind. The latest offers FOB Cincinnati included UAN-32 at $245-$248/st ($7.50-$7.75/unit) and UAN-28 at the $217/st ($7.75/unit) FOB level.

Western Cornbelt:

The UAN-32 market in Western Canada remained at $240-$260/st ($7.50-$8.13/unit) FOB, depending on location, with the low confirmed at Port Neal, Iowa. The St. Louis market was quoted at the $244/st ($7.63/unit) FOB level at midweek.

California:

UAN-32 prices in California were quoted at $300/st ($9.38/unit) FOB Stockton and $305/st ($9.53/unit) FOB Port Hueneme in mid-August. No current rail-DEL UAN offers were confirmed in the state during the week.

Pacific Northwest:

UAN-32 firmed to $315/st ($9.84/unit) FOB Kennewick, Wash., up from $290-$300/st ($9.06-$9.38/unit) FOB in July. No current delivered prices were reported in the region in mid-August.

Western Canada:

UAN-28 in Western Canada was steady at C$395-$405/mt (C$14.11-$14.46/unit) DEL in mid-August.

France:

In the absence of new business, the latest UAN indications at Rouen were down €10/mt, to €245-€255/mt FCA. Producers may be reluctant to further slash offers, however, given the bullish European natural gas market.

Ammonium Nitrate

Ammonium Nitrate, France, Market Watch, U.S. Exports, U.S. Imports, Western Cornbelt

US Imports:

June ammonium nitrate imports rose 258.9%, to 54,939 st from the year-ago 15,308 st. Imports totaled 361,337 st in July-June, up 16.5% from 310,066 st in the prior year. Canada sent 272,861 st for the 2023/24 fertilizer year, Russia followed with 85,198 st, and China added 1,159 st.

US Exports:

Ammonium nitrate exports firmed 23.8% in July-June, to 801,619 st from the year-ago 647,599 st. June exports were reported at 66,680 st, however, dropping 17.0% from the 80,365 st seen one year earlier. Canada received 411,687 st of US product in July-June, Mexico purchased 291,952 st, and Lithuania took 39,690 st.

Western Cornbelt:

Ammonium nitrate prices remained at $240-$250/st FOB Missouri terminals in mid-August.

France:

The appetite for ammonium nitrate remains minimal in France as growers deal with lower yields and poor quality in the current harvest. No updates to list prices by key producers were reported, resulting in an unchanged range of €340-€355/mt CPT in France.

Ammonium Sulfate

Ammonium Sulfate, Brazil, California, China, Eastern Cornbelt, Market Watch, Pacific N.W., U.S. Exports, U.S. Gulf, U.S. Imports, Western Canada, Western Cornbelt

US Gulf:

The NOLA ammonium sulfate barge market edged up to $280-$285/st FOB for the latest reported trades, up from the prior week’s flat $280/st FOB level.

US Imports:

Ammonium sulfate imports for July-June lifted 36.6% year-over-year, to 1.21 million st from 885,007 st. June imports were 44,828 st, however, down 33.4% from 67,264 st in the year-ago period. Imports from Canada were noted at 523,417 st for July-June, ahead of 232,756 st from Belgium. The Netherlands shipped 141,364 st.

US Exports:

Ammonium sulfate exports softened 18.6% in June, to 27,391 st from the year-go 33,667 st. July-June exports were 615,918 st, down 16.7% from the prior 739,623 st. Exports to Peru totaled 194,824 st in July-June, followed by Canada with 79,190 st. Mexico took 65,261 st, ahead of 60,365 st to the Dominican Republic.

Eastern Cornbelt:

Granular ammonium sulfate remained at $325-$350/st FOB in the Eastern Cornbelt, with the low reported out of spot river terminals in Illinois and the upper end confirmed at Cincinnati.

Western Cornbelt:

Granular ammonium sulfate was unchanged at 325-$370/st FOB in the Western Cornbelt, with the low reported at St. Louis for prompt tons.

California:

The ammonium sulfate market was reported at $375-$420/st FOB in California, with the low reported at Richvale and Helm and the high at Woodland and Chico. Granular pricing at French Camp remained at the $405/st FOB level in mid-August.

Pacific Northwest:

IRM’s ammonium sulfate postings in Oregon, Washington, Idaho, and Montana moved on Aug. 9 to $355/st FOB or DEL for WesternPremium and Tranzform and $305/st FOB or DEL for WesternStandard, up $10/st from the company’s July 12 reference prices. Postings from other suppliers remained as high as $400-$420/st DEL for granular tons in the region.

Western Canada:

Ammonium sulfate prices were up in Western Canada, to C$480-$495/mt DEL from earlier offers at the C$460-$475/mt level. Sources described supply as tight, with several grades currently sold out until November.

China:

Sources reported several small sales to regional buyers at $128-$130/mt FOB. These deals to buyers in Southeast Asia are typically limited to sub-10,000 mt volumes shipped in containers. Players attributed the price drop to the softening urea market.

Brazil:

Brazil granular ammonium sulfate imports strengthened to $175-$185/mt CFR, up from last week’s $170-$178/mt CFR level, with the top of the range representing transactions for smaller volumes or delivery to ports with higher logistics costs.

Demand for ammonium sulfate remains strong, bolstered by a favorable barter ratio reported close to 60 bags per hectare. Amsul remains an excellent option for blends, complementing the potash barter ratio, which is also favorable. Despite the strong demand, prices fell $5/mt from the previous low to settle at $285-$300/mt FOB Rondonópolis.

August import totals are expected to run 40% above August 2023, reflecting agreements made approximately three months ago. Import volumes could weaken going forward, however, given both the current difficulty in exporting product from China and the market’s limited vessel availability.

DAP/MAP

Baltic Sea, Benelux, Brazil, California, Central Florida, China, DAP/MAP, Eastern Cornbelt, India, Market Watch, Morocco, Pacific N.W., Pakistan, U.S. Exports, U.S. Gulf, U.S. Imports, Western Canada, Western Cornbelt

Central Florida:

Central Florida DAP truck postings were unchanged at $570-$580/st FOB, sources said, while MAP firmed to $620/st FOB from $610-$620/st FOB at last report. North Florida MAP remained at the $650/st FOB level.

US Gulf:

NOLA DAP barges firmed $5/st at the top of the range, lifting to $540-$550/st FOB from last week’s $540-$545/st FOB range. MAP barges were noted at a flat $635/st FOB, however, off $5/st from the prior $640/st FOB.

US Imports:

DAP imports for July-June firmed 66.5%, to 1.66 million st from the year-ago 995,214 st. June imports rose 27.9%, to 155,094 st from 121,239 st in June 2023. July-June imports from Saudi Arabia continued at 986,112 st, followed by 355,529 st from Jordan and 126,765 st from Egypt.

June MAP/Other imports were 78,077 st, a 56.8% decline from the year-ago 180,790 st. Fertilizer year volumes totaled 953,346 st, down 1.6% from 968,913 st in the prior year. Saudi Arabia topped the seller list with 272,232 st in July-June, beating 237,231 st from Mexico. Tunisia shipped 175,777 st.

US Exports:

The latest DAP price continued to be reported at $550/mt FOB from the US Gulf. With no public MAP transactions reported in recent months, the market’s last spot business continued at the $570/mt FOB level.

July-June DAP exports were noted at 463,063 st, down 42.7% from the year-ago 808,227 st. June shipments fell 75.1%, to 29,361 st from 117,955 st in the prior June. US DAP sellers sent 95,398 st to Peru in July-June, ahead of 70,444 st to Uruguay and 59,632 st to Colombia. Brazil, Canada, and Mexico followed with 59,130 st, 49,620 st, and 48,557 st, respectively.

MAP/Other exports moved down 39.6% in June, to 55,167 st from 91,373 st in June 2023. July-June exports softened 5.9%, to 2.02 million st from the year-ago 2.15 million st. Canada received 1.66 million st of MAP from the US in July-June, ahead of 111,136 st to Australia and 49,702 st to Brazil. Colombia bought 48,305 st, ahead of 43,916 st sent to Mexico.

Eastern Cornbelt:

The DAP market continued at $595-$610/st FOB in the Eastern Cornbelt, with the low confirmed at Cincinnati. MAP remained at $690-$700/st FOB in the region.

Western Cornbelt:

DAP was quoted at $585-$610/st FOB in the Western Cornbelt, with the St. Louis market reported in the $585-$595/st FOB range. MAP slipped to $680-$700/st FOB in the region, with the low again confirmed at St. Louis.

California:

MAP pricing firmed to $770/st FOB or DEL for the latest offers in California, up $10/st from July.

Pacific Northwest:

MAP in the Pacific Northwest was quoted at $750-$760/st FOB or DEL, up $10/st from July.

Western Canada:

MAP prices in Western Canada firmed to C$1,080-$1,085/mt FOB or DEL for the latest offers, up from the previous C$1,050-$1,060/mt range.

Benelux:

The DAP market in Benelux remains seasonally inactive. In the absence of new business, DAP pricing was unchanged at $672-$678/mt FCA.

Morocco:

No changes to Moroccan DAP prices were confirmed this week, with range-bound sales totaling some 30,000 mt reported into continental Europe. The Moroccan DAP market was unchanged at $510-$625/mt FOB.

Baltic:

MAP prices in the Baltic were stable at $585-$595/mt FOB, reflecting netbacks from Brazilian CFR values.

India: 

Last week’s deal between OCP and India, said to have been settled at $615-$620/mt CFR, was reportedly for up to 500,000-700,000 mt of DAP. Product shipments will be staggered through the end of the year.

India’s government has also reportedly approved the one-off budget increase for DAP subsidies. Even with the increase, however, the imported price will exceed the breakeven price.

Pakistan:       

Pakistan has reportedly purchased another DAP cargo at $635/mt CFR, representing a slight increase from the $620/mt CFR paid earlier this month.

China:

Some port officials have reportedly received notices from the government to reject any new requests for permission to export phosphates. The notice does not affect any phosphates already approved for export, sources said.

If the ban on new export requests holds, the last of China’s phosphates slated for export will likely ship by the end of the month, one trader said.

Brazil:

MAP imports were steady at $635/mt CFR, with players reporting a slowdown in seasonal demand balanced by weak supply.

Limited availability continued to impact the inland market, though players also reported muted demand for high-concentration phosphates ahead of the 2024/25 soybean season. Rondonópolis prices narrowed to $775-$785/mt FOB from $770-$790/mt FOB.

TSP

Brazil, Eastern Cornbelt, Market Watch, Triple Superphosphate, U.S. Gulf, Western Cornbelt

US Gulf:

NOLA TSP barge trades were noted at $505-$512/st FOB, stretching from $510/st FOB at last report.

Eastern Cornbelt:

TSP was unchanged at $555-$565/st FOB in the Eastern Cornbelt, depending on location.

Western Cornbelt:

The TSP market remained at $550-$560/st FOB for prompt tons in the Western Cornbelt. Sources said October offers at St. Louis dropped to the $535/st FOB level, however, pending availability and the timely arrival of vessel tons.

Brazil:

Landed TSP prices moved higher, to $510-$525/mt CFR from the week-ago $510/mt CFR, amid a backdrop of dwindling end-season demand and low grain prices.

While demand remained limited in the domestic market, available supply was also thin, with several major suppliers unable to offer product for short-term delivery. Current negotiations are focused on delivery dates in late 2024 and early 2025, with prices noted around $640/mt FOB Rondonópolis. The unique fundamental conditions suggested potential price fluctuations in the medium- to long-term, complicating purchase planning.

SSP

Brazil, Market Watch, SSP

Brazil:

SSP 19-21 imports dropped to $197-$240/mt CFR from last week’s $220-$250/mt CFR, with pricing at the bottom of the range associated with SSP-19 positioned near the destination port.

Inland prices remained firm despite a drop in CFR levels, lifting to $360-$380/mt FOB Rondonópolis. August import forecasts remained below the five-year average, potentially supporting prices, though domestic production has played an important role in balancing supply and demand in the domestic market considering the ongoing import uncertainties.

Phosphoric Acid

California, Eastern Cornbelt, Market Watch, Pacific N.W., Phosphoric Acid, U.S. Exports, Western Cornbelt

US Exports:                                 

Wet-process phosphoric acid exports softened 12.6% in June, to 42,047 st from 48,100 st in June 2023. July-June totals moved up 11.8% year-over-year, however, to 360,479 st from 322,462 st. India took 207,126 st of US phos acid in July-June, Mexico followed with 93,464 st, and Canada bought 53,146 st.

Eastern Cornbelt:

Phosphoric acid reference prices for August continued at $11.25/unit rail-DEL in the Eastern Cornbelt.

Western Cornbelt:

The phos acid market in the Western Cornbelt remained at $11.25/unit rail-DEL for August shipments.

California:

August phos acid reference prices in California were quoted at $11.50/unit rail-DEL, up $0.25/unit from July, with MGA posted at $11.70/unit FOB Helm.

Pacific Northwest:

Phos acid reference prices for August in the Pacific Northwest moved to $11.50/unit rail-DEL and $11.00/unit FOB Pocatello, Idaho, up $0.25/unit from July.