US Gulf/Tampa:
No news was reported on the Tampa ammonia price for January, nor on its
expected direction. The December Tampa price was concluded at $625/mt CFR, flat
from November.
US
Imports:
October
ammonia imports stood at 164,358 st, the US Census Bureau reported, up 24.8%
from the 131,732 st posted last October. July-October volumes softened 11.4%,
however, to 686,705 st from the year-ago 775,343 st.
Canada
sent 364,426 st to the US in the July-October fertilizer year-to-date, Trinidad
and Tobago shipped 293,854 st, and Argentina added 7,166 st.
US Exports:
July-October
ammonia exports totaled 467,813 st, down 3.1% from the year-ago 482,768 st.
October exports rose 1.9%, however, to 64,886 st from 63,646 st in October 2022.
Morocco
was the top export destination for July-October with 146,052 st, followed by
Norway with 84,358 st. The Netherlands moved into third place with 49,384 st,
ahead of 37,992 st to the UK.
Eastern Cornbelt:
CF on Dec. 13
announced fill and spring prepay programs for ammonia, with offers out of
terminals in Illinois and Indiana dropping to $600/st FOB for December-February
fill tons and $650/st FOB for spring prepay. Those levels are down $100/st or
more from the last prompt fall business, which fell in the $725-$750/st FOB
range in the region.
Western Cornbelt:
The first round of
December-February fill and spring prepay programs for ammonia were announced by
CF on Dec. 13. Postings in Nebraska at Aurora, Blair, and Fremont were reported
at $620/st FOB for fill tons and $645/st FOB for spring prepay, while published
prices at Port Neal and other Iowa terminals were pegged at $620/st FOB for
fill and $640/st FOB for spring.
Southern Plains:
CF’s
Dec. 13 fill and spring prepay prices for ammonia included Woodward, Okla., at
$600/st FOB for December-February fill and $620/st FOB for spring, and
Verdigris, Okla., at $625/st FOB for both fill tons and spring prepay. Those
levels are down from the last prompt fall business in the $625-$675/st FOB
range in the region, depending on location.
South Central:
The last confirmed truck offers for ammonia out of Gulf Coast production
points ranged from $570-$625/st FOB.
India:
Sources
reported purchases of imported ammonia at $500/mt CFR, matching where traders
previously estimated prices during a period of limited public spot business.
The
lack of spot deals in India did not mean ammonia was not being imported. Most
buying took place under long-term contracts that provided tons at a substantial
discount to the spot market. Smaller buyers could often make do with
domestically produced product, leaving few indicators for the price of imports.
Middle
East:
Based
on reports of $500/mt CFR ammonia in India, estimated netbacks to the Arab Gulf
showed up in the $420s/mt FOB, a level sources had discussed for several weeks.
There were no spot deals to confirm the talk, however.
Northwest
Europe:
The
decline in natural gas prices is expected to help ammonia producers step up
production. These same producers appear reluctant to lower prices, however,
even if supply increases.
The
bulk of the deals into Northwest Europe are covered by contracts or
formula-based sales. Sources reported a weak feeling to the market, and no new
spot inquiries were reported.