US Gulf:
The NOLA urea market widened to $308-$323/st FOB for confirmed business
during the week, compared with last week’s $311-$322/st FOB. September trades
were quoted at $318-$323/st FOB, with October business reported at
the $308-$318/st FOB level.
Eastern Cornbelt:
Urea
was steady at $350-$370/st FOB in the Eastern Cornbelt, with the low reported
out of spot Illinois River terminals. The Cincinnati, Ohio, market was
unchanged at $360-$365/st FOB in mid-September.
Western Cornbelt:
Urea firmed to $350-$370/st FOB in the Western
Cornbelt, with the St. Louis, Mo., market reported at the $355-$365/st FOB
level at mid-month.
Southern Plains:
Urea pricing edged up to $360-$380/st FOB in the
Southern Plains, with the Catoosa/Inola, Okla., market pegged at the upper end
of the range.
South Central:
Urea was reported at $355-$380/st FOB in the South Central region,
up from a high of $370/st last week, with the low reported at Convent, La., and
the high at Little Rock, Ark. The Memphis, Tenn., market was pegged at
$365-$375/st FOB at mid-month.
Southeast:
Urea prices were up $5/st at port
terminals in the Southeast, to $365-$375/st FOB in mid-September.
India:
Rashtriya
Chemicals and Fertilizers Ltd. (RCF) on Sept. 19 called a urea tender to close on
Oct. 3 with a shipping deadline of Nov. 20. Rumors began circulating this week
of a new pending urea tender. The market first expected the tender to be called
in early October. As the week progressed, however, a handful of traders
speculated the call could come as early as this week.
The
tender call came as domestic urea offtake projections shifted from steady to
aggressive. Sources looked at the country’s current urea reserves of roughly 6
million mt and the urea on order from long-term contracts and the recent Aug.
29 National Fertilizers Ltd. (NFL) tender. They then compared that tonnage
against the estimated demand and saw that India could fall as much as 1.5
million mt short of urea for the upcoming Rabi season. More product would have
to be purchased quickly to fill the estimated shortfall.
So
far, vessels have been nominated for only about 400,000 mt of the 1.17 million
mt awarded by NFL, one trader noted. The remaining material still needs to be
secured, but prices are moving beyond the NFL tender price.
Prices in the Arab Gulf have reportedly jumped $10-$20/mt since the previous tender was awarded. The increase will impact traders who were looking to buy October tons to fulfill their awards in the NFL tender. With sources speculating that RCF may attempt to buy more than 1 million mt, a higher price could prompt the Indian treasury to encourage RCF to take the bare minimum and refrain from a larger purchase.
The
Indian government has already reassessed the country’s subsidy needs for the
upcoming application season. The government will increase the amount available
for urea subsidies by 10%, local media reported, to $14 billion.
Black
Sea:
Prices
edged up to $300-$305/mt FOB for prilled urea in the Black Sea region.
Mediterranean:
France
continued to see granular urea activity $375/mt CFR this week. Offers in Spain
climbed to $390/mt CFR to reflect the latest Egyptian FOB values, but there
were no takers at that level, leaving the regional market unchanged at
$360-$375/mt CFR.
The latest tender news from India has
triggered upward pressure in the market, however, and is likely to move prices
higher once the inland wholesale markets in France and Spain begin accepting
higher offers.
Delivered prilled urea prices in the Mediterranean
were quoted lower at $320-$340/mt FOB on reports of offers in the Black Sea
following the Indian tender award, which reflects around $290/mt FOB Black Sea.
Southeast Asia:
As
many as three urea cargoes from the Southeast Asia region are reportedly
committed for India following the NFL urea tender, yielding netbacks of around
$320/mt FOB, down from last week’s low of $330/mt FOB. No further updates on
Indonesian granular exports were reported, resulting in an unchanged high of
$366/mt FOB.
BFI/Brunei
is said to have one cargo of 35,000-40,000 mt available for sale in late
October. Petronas, in Malaysia, is reportedly sold out through October and
possibly into early November.
Activity
has been muted on the buy side, with a small volume secured via tender in the
Philippines netting back to around $330-$335/mt FOB and falling within the
existing range.
Indonesia:
Pupuk Holdings closed a quick
tender on Sept. 19 for 30,000-45,000 mt of granular urea for October shipment.
Initial reports put pricing in the mid-$350s/mt FOB, though confirmation of the
price and awards is expected next week.
In
the past, the tons offered in Indonesian tenders have marked an entry point for
further discussions. Pupuk will most likely go into private talks with bidding
companies for additional sales. The last granular tender was for a similar
amount to the current offer, but ultimately generated sales totaling
approximately 200,000 mt over a roughly two-month period.
Pupuk’s
last granular tender settled at $366/mt FOB. Sources have recently discussed
prices in Southeast Asia in the $330s/mt FOB. While Indonesian product
typically carries a premium over tons from Malaysia or Brunei, a $20/mt gap is
unusual. If Pupuk does settle in the mid-$350s/mt FOB, other prices in the
region should expect to see a bounce.
The
tender marks the return of Pupuk to the granular export market after a
longer-than-usual break. Sources attributed the delay to a number of factors.
Severe weather initially delayed the loading of product sold in June. Only in
the past few weeks was the last of that tonnage finally loaded and shipped. At
the same time, sources reported that disputes between Pupuk officials and the
new leadership in government ministries caused additional delays in selling
product offshore.
Government
officials were overly anxious to ensure a domestic supply of urea beyond normal
demands, said one trader. The political leadership has changed, however, and
Pupuk has now been allowed to prepare the paperwork for a tender.
A
July prilled tender left the market at $381/mt FOB, and Pupuk reportedly sold a
small 5,000 mt lot to a Philippines buyer at that price this week. Prilled urea
has been trading at a premium to granular in the Southeast Asia region due to
the absence of Chinese product.
South
Korea:
South
Korea has been working to reduce its dependency on Chinese urea. According to
the latest figures from Trade Data Monitor, the efforts are beginning to
pay off.
Urea
imports firmed 17% in January-August, to 492,000 mt from the 460,000 mt
received in the same period of 2023. Vietnam led suppliers with 121,000 mt, up
from 33,000 mt last year. Qatar sent 115,000 mt and China shipped 93,000 mt,
off from 203,000 mt purchased through the same period of 2023. August imports
of 72,000 mt were up 81% from the 40,000 mt received in August 2023.
Middle
East:
Sources
discussed deals at $340/mt FOB during the week. By the end of the week,
however, reports surfaced of a late-October sale of granular urea at $350/mt
FOB. Prior to that, sources were putting the market at $335-$345/mt FOB.
Until
the end of the week, producers seemed content with pricing centered around the
$340/mt FOB level. However, noted one source, the RCF urea tender call appears
to have jump-started the market. The new price range of $335-$350/mt FOB
represents an increase of $10-$20/mt from the netbacks earned in the last
Indian tender.
Thanks
both to the NFL tender and long-term contract sales, Arab Gulf producers are
reportedly in a comfortable position. Claiming to be sold out through October,
some are only willing to discuss deals for November.
The
higher prices and growing supply tightness are expected to cause some concern
for traders who have not yet secured October product as part of their NFL
awards. While many have already cut deals at the tender-related price in the
$320s/mt FOB, others will have to deal with the rising market.
Only
about 400,000 mt of the 1.17 million mt awarded in the NFL tender has been
booked to vessels to date, sources said. The remaining tonnage still needs to
be secured and shipped, all at a time of rising prices.
Egypt:
The
week closed with Egypt urea prices moving up $5-7/mt from last week’s levels.
Helwan sold several lots of granular urea totaling 20,000 mt at $365/mt FOB,
followed by MOPCO selling 10,000 mt at $367/mt FOB. All of the sales were for
October shipment to buyers in Europe.
China:
Sources
reported further urea price softening at factories in China. There appears to
be no softening of the central government’s policy on restricting urea exports,
however.
Ethiopia:
The
Ethiopian Agricultural Businesses Corp. (EABC) tender for 250,000 mt closed on
Sept. 17. The EABC called for offers to ship in five equal lots from late
September through mid-November.
The
lowest offer was from Pacific International at $355/mt CFR for the first lot,
about $8/mt down from the July EABC tender.
Offering
Company
|
Price
($/mt CIF)
|
Lot
1
|
Lot
2
|
Lot
3
|
Lot
4
|
Lot
5
|
Pacific International
|
355.00
|
359.00
|
368.00
|
373.00
|
375.00
|
West Trade
|
375.00
|
378.00
|
380.00
|
385.00
|
382.00
|
ETG
|
418.00
|
419.00
|
435.00
|
422.00
|
|
Samsung submitted offers on an FOB basis. The company’s offers for Lot 1 at $352/mt FOB and Lot 5 at $362/mt FOB were expected to be sourced from the Middle East, and a Lot 3 offer of $375/mt FOB was slated to come from Egypt. Midgulf also reportedly offered Egyptian tons – for Lot 5 only – at $410/mt FOB.
It
appears as though Pacific International and West Trade each offered material
from Oman. The single offer from Midgulf and one of the four offers from ETG
were for Egyptian product. Nigerian suppliers appear to have backed the
remaining offers from ETG.
Brazil:
Granular
urea prices softened to $350-$360/mt CFR in Brazil. Early-week prices noted
toward the lower end of the range firmed to $356-$358/mt CFR as rumors of a new
India tender circulated. Prices reached $360/mt CFR when the tender was called,
causing some sellers to exit the market.
The
domestic market was stable at $480-$500/mt FOB Rondonópolis. Growers remain focused
on planting for the summer crop, pushing nitrogen demand closer to the season’s
typical fourth-quarter peak.
While the
import lineup shows approximately 700,000 mt due to unload in September, port
congestion may force some carryover into October, sources said.
Argentina:
The
Argentina urea market remained at a standstill during the week, with prices
holding at $370-$375/mt CFR.