All posts by hlancey@bloomberg.net

The Andersons Sells Nebraska Grain Facility

The Andersons Inc., Maumee, Ohio, announced on Sept. 18 that it has completed the sale of its Anselmo, Neb., grain facility to Country Partners Cooperative, a member-owned co-op that provides agronomy, energy, grain, and feed services to farmers and ranchers in central Nebraska. The Andersons will continue to own and operate their other grain and fertilizer locations in Nebraska.

“We built the Anselmo elevator from the ground up and opened for grain deliveries in the fall of 2012, growing a loyal customer base by concentrating on strong relationships and providing extraordinary service during the past decade,” said Bill Krueger, The Andersons COO and President of Trade and Processing. “We value the relationships that have been built and are pleased that these customers will continue to be served by Country Partners Cooperative.”

“The addition of the shuttle loader capability on the BNSF will help us meet our goal to deliver an unsurpassed customer experience and expand the markets that our customers can sell into,” said Country Partners Cooperative CEO Chris Wagner. “We are committed to continue providing local grain market expertise, along with merchandising flexibility to help deliver increased profitability for customers.”

Ammonia

US Gulf/Tampa:

No news was reported on the Tampa ammonia price for October, but an increase is expected from September’s $390/mt CFR. The last NOLA ammonia trades were confirmed at the $500/st FOB level, while new vessel business pushed the US Gulf CFR price to $580/mt, adding fuel to expectations of a significant Tampa hike in October.

Eastern Cornbelt:

Ammonia prices continued to edge higher in the Eastern Cornbelt for limited offers, with reports of new pricing at $650-$660/st FOB in the region, where available.

Western Cornbelt:

Ammonia prices jumped to $650-$675/st FOB in the Western Cornbelt, with the high reported at Port Neal, Iowa. Many locations had withdrawn offers, however, and new sales were few. “We’re still 30 days out from fall application, and everyone positioned tons earlier in the $400s/st,” said one contact.

“Seems everyone is expecting a big fall application and sellers are cautious to sell more 4Q tonnage in a rising market,” added another source.

Southern Plains:

The latest ammonia offers out of production points in the Southern Plains were pegged at $525-$550/st FOB for limited offers, with truck pricing at Beaumont, Texas, reported at $380/st FOB. Some producers were not quoting prices in late September, however.

South Central:

Ammonia prices edged up to $380-$400/st FOB in the South Central region, with the high reported for the last business at Midway, Tenn. No current offers were reportedly on the table at El Dorado, Ark., Cherokee, Ala., or Waggaman, La.

China:

As prices have dropped in Southeast Asia largely due to reduced demand, exports from China to regional buyers have also declined. First-quarter ammonia exports of 126,000 mt fell to 8,000 mt in the second quarter, according to Trade Data Monitor. Exports are not expected to strongly increase in the third and fourth quarters.

January-August ammonia exports were reported at 153,000 mt, up from the year-ago 47,000 mt. August exports totaled 7,000 mt – all to Vietnam ­– against 19,000 mt shipped in August 2022.

Ammonia imports were counted at 557,000 mt in January-August, up significantly from the 175,000 mt logged through the same period of 2022. Indonesia supplied 59% of the tonnage, sending 330,000 mt. Sources attributed the increase to both lower prices in the Asian markets and stepped-up industrial demand, including from phosphate producers. August imports of 108,000 mt marked an increase from 20,000 mt received in August 2022.

South Korea:

Trade Data Monitor reported South Koreaammonia imports at 732,000 mt in January-August, a 23% decline from 947,000 mt recorded through the same period of 2022. August imports were noted at 83,000 mt, off 18% from 101,000 mt received in August 2022.

Urea

US Gulf:

NOLA urea strengthened during the week, with delayed load dates and low water restrictions fueling reports of tightening prompt supply. New business was confirmed at the $405-$435/st FOB level for September loading, up from last week’s $390-$408/st FOB range, with the low reported early in the trading week.

“The market remains tight on supply, and pre-river close buyers are having to pay up to secure product,” said one contact.

First-half October business was reported in the $385-$392/st FOB range, while sources reported a “significant drop” for November-December barges, down to a reported $375-$377/st FOB.

Eastern Cornbelt:

Urea prices slipped to $450-$470/st FOB in the Eastern Cornbelt, down from last week’s $465-$480/st FOB range, with the low confirmed in Illinois and the upper end at Cincinnati, Ohio.

Western Cornbelt:

Urea remained at $450-$470/st FOB in the Western Cornbelt, with the low reported at St. Louis, Mo. The Caruthersville, Mo., market was pegged at the $470/st FOB level during the week.

Southern Plains:

The urea market was quoted at $475-$485/st FOB in the Southern Plains, with both the high and low reported at Catoosa/Inola, Okla., during the week. Houston, Texas, urea pricing was also reported at $475/st FOB at midweek.

South Central:

The urea market was pegged at $450-$475/st FOB terminals in the South Central region, with the low confirmed at Convent, La., and the high at Little Rock, Ark., and Memphis, Tenn.

Southeast:

Urea firmed to $460-$465/st FOB port terminals for very limited tons, with the low reported at Brunswick, Ga., and the high confirmed at Wilmington, N.C., for October shipment. Most other locations in the Southeast were out of product in mid-September. The latest offers in the Northeast were reported at $470/st FOB Fairless Hills, Pa., for September-October tons.

India: 

The lowest prices offered in the Rashtriya Chemicals and Fertilizers Ltd. (RCF) tender sent shockwaves through the market. Agri Commodities offered 26,000 mt into each coast, at $405/mt CFR for East Coast delivery and $400.50/mt CFR for a West Coast port.

The next lowest prices were $434/mt CFR for the East Coast and $420.50/mt CFR for the West Coast. The wide gap between the L1 and L2 prices led sources to predict that RCF would not be able to reach its goal of buying 1.2-1.5 million mt.

Offering Company Quantity ECI (mt) US$/mt CFR  
Agri Commodities 26,000 405.00
Aditya Birla 200,000 434.00
Samsung 165,000 442.50
Compagnie Indo Francaise de Commerce/Continental 45,000 444.50
Ameropa 316,950 444.77
Coastal/Fertiglobe 135,000 445.00
Fertcom 45,000 445.00
MacroSource 45,000 445.00
Dreymoor 129,000 449.00
Koch 93,200 456.50
Aries 100,000 459.19
EuroChem Trading 85,000 460.00
Midgulf 150,000 463.00
Sun International 90,000 474.90
Offering Company Quantity WCI (mt) US$/mt CFR
Agri Commodities 26,000 400.50
Aditya Birla 300,000 420.50
Keytrade 48,000 423.75
SABIC 200,000 437.00
Samsung 177,000 437.30
Ameropa 358,850 438.73
Dreymoor 80,000 439.00
Compagnie Indo Francaise de Commerce/Continental 45,000 439.50
Coastal/Fertiglobe 135,000 440.00
Fertcom 45,000 440.00
OQ Trading 50,000 449.00
Koch 93,200 450.00
EuroChem Trading 43,570 455.00
Midgulf 150,000 456.00
Overseas Oil and Gas 100,000 457.00
Aries 100,000 459.17
MacroSource 45,000 465.00

In the end, only seven additional companies matched the prices set by Agri Commodities, for a total of 525,000 mt. Most of the tonnage is expected to come from the Arab Gulf, with one cargo possibly coming from Africa. As Green Markets went to press, RCF had not issued letters of intent to purchase the offered tonnage. Sources said the letters will most likely be issued over the weekend.

Offering Company Quantity (mt)  
Fertiglobe 135,000
Overseas Oil & Gas 100,000
Agri Commodities 52,000
SABIC 50,000
Aditya Birla 50,000
Keytrade 48,000
Samsung 45,000
Sun International 45,000
Total 525,000

Ahead of the tender, sources had estimated that India would need to secure 3-3.5 million mt for shipment through December. Such a number would have been possible, said one trader, if RCF could have achieved its goal of buying up to 1.5 million mt in the current tender. However, the small quantity secured could now force India to hold three additional tenders, with a goal of buying 1 million mt in each tender. Sources said it is likely that another tender will be called next week.

The push to buy more urea comes as domestic demand has exceeded expectations. August and September movements to farmers were higher than planners anticipated, sources said.

One trader noted that had the lowest price in the RCF tender been offered in the $420s/mt CFR, the buyer could have easily secured its desired 1.5 million mt. Industry sources could not offer any explanation as to why the Agri Commodities offers were priced so low, especially when most in the industry predicted a price floor of $415-$420/mt CFR prior to the close of the tender.

The wide gap between the lowest prices and the next lowest led some traders to encourage India to change its tender rules. Currently the buying house has to use the lowest offer as the basis for negotiations with other offering companies. Sources said India might want to consider creating a policy that would allow the buyer to award to the second-lowest offering firm if the lowest price falls outside of a set range established by the other offers.

Sources expect the next tender to see higher prices. There will be no Chinese tons available for the rest of the year, sources said, and Russian material is also severely limited. Other producers in North Africa and Indonesia are trying to hold firm to price levels that would make their product unavailable to India.

At the same time, some traders shifted to Arab Gulf sources to cover cargoes for the IPL tender, and most if not all of the RCF tender will be covered from the Arab Gulf, leaving limited supply available from the Middle East.

Black Sea:

As the market worked to absorb the impact of the unexpected price set in the RCF/India tender, prilled urea from the Black Sea remained at $340-$360/mt FOB.

Indonesia:     

A tender called by PT Pupuk Indonesia Holding Co. on Sept. 18 closed on Sept. 19. The tender offered 6,000-40,000 mt of granular product from Kaltim and 5,000-10,000 mt of prilled, with shipment slated for the first half of October.

Pupuk was disappointed in the results. The company reportedly hoped to achieve $450/mt FOB for its granular product. Aditya Birla had the highest bid at a reported $415/mt FOB for 6,000 mt of granular, while bids for the prilled lots were said to come in below $390/mt FOB.

In the end, Pupuk scrapped the prilled tender, while sources expect the seller to issue an award to Aditya for the granular. Pupuk will then go into private negotiations with other potential buyers using the $415/mt FOB price as the basis for talks.

Sources argued that Pupuk should have considered scrapping the granular tender as well. One trader said the company is now tied to the $415/mt FOB price for future talks. Had the company scrapped the tender and called a new one on the heels of the new Indian tender expected next week, the price could have moved higher.

Middle East: 

Material from the Arab Gulf is said to dominate the 525,000 mt expected to be awarded in the RCF tender. Sources put the netback to the Gulf from West Coast India at $380-$385/mt FOB, significantly below the $420/mt FOB discussed by producers just before the tender closed.

Producers will have no reason to accept lower prices when the next Indian tender closes, sources said, as producers are reportedly sold out of spot material through October. The next Indian tender will focus on October and November shipments.

Sources predicted the Arab Gulf will be the main supplier in the next tender. China is expected to limit its fourth-quarter exports to small lots shipped on an infrequent basis. At the same time, Russian product is not readily available, and Southeast Asian urea is being sought by Australia and other buyers.

Sources confirmed a 5,000 mt granular urea sale out of Egypt by Alexfert priced at $430/mt, down from the last business at $455/mt FOB done earlier this month. Most producers are still publicly claiming the price is in the $450s/mt FOB. For now, with European buyers quiet, no one in Egypt is aggressively pushing any new talks.

China:

The estimated netback to China, based on the RCF tender East Coast price, was put at $385-$390/mt FOB. However, sources described the price as more of an academic exercise than based on actual business.

Sources do not expect any Chinese material to be part of the RCF awards, as the Chinese government wants producers to focus on the domestic market. One trader noted that once the remaining 300,000 mt currently located at the ports is loaded and gone, there will be limited quantities made available for export. The government is not expected to allow exports of the size that would qualify for an Indian tender. Smaller lots of just a few thousand tons, to be shipped in containers, will most likely be approved on a case-by-case basis.

The limitations on exports will most likely come from the customs inspectors rather than through an official decree limiting tonnage for sale. The inspectors can claim under their mandate that the tons are needed for the domestic market and may not be cleared for export. This export limitation is expected to continue into January or February 2024.

Urea exports firmed 34% in January-August, according to Trade Data Monitor, to 1.6 million mt from the year-ago 1.2 million mt. August exports were reported at 314,000 mt, down marginally from the 351,000 mt shipped in August 2022.

China sent product to 54 countries in August. The top three buyers, Chile, Myanmar, and South Korea, combined to take 52% of the exports, while the next 10 countries took lots amounting to 1-10% each. The remaining 41 countries took less than 1% apiece.

South Korea:

Urea imports to South Korea fell 36% in January-August, Trade Data Monitor reported, to 460,000 mtfrom last year’s 714,000 mt. August imports stood at 40,000 mt, down from the 104,000 mt received in August 2022.

China was South Korea’s main supplier in August, sending 32,000 mt in lots of 1,000-3,000 mt. China may be able to continue sending small lots such as these in the fourth quarter, while larger cargoes will not be allowed.

Brazil:

Imported urea prices declined to $400-$415/mt CFR Brazil, a 3% decrease from last week’s $415-$425/mt CFR. Offers heard around $420-$430/mt CFR were not believed to transact, while offers for Iranian tonnage were reported at $390/mt CFR.

Rondonopolis urea prices lost momentum during the week, with most suppliers offering in the $535-$545/mt FOB ex-warehouse range, down from $540-$590/mt FOB at last report. Despite the decrease, prices remain above farmer expectations, pressuring margins for the safrinha.

Sources suggested that urea prices need to drop further to spur interest, as falling corn prices, combined with the increase in urea prices in the wake of the Indian tender, continue to drag on barter ratios.

UAN

US Gulf:

The NOLA UAN-32 market continued to be quoted in the $250-$260/st ($7.81-$8.13/unit) FOB range for the last business, unchanged from last week.

Eastern Cornbelt:

UAN-32 terminal prices remained at $295-$300/st ($9.22-$9.38/unit) FOB regional terminals for November-December tons, with the latest UAN-28 offers for December shipment reported at the $274/st ($9.79/unit) level FOB Cincinnati.

Western Cornbelt:

UAN-32 prices for December shipment remained at $295-$300/st ($9.22-$9.38/unit) FOB regional terminals in the Western Cornbelt, with the low reported at St. Louis and Port Neal.

Southern Plains:

UAN-32 in the Southern Plains firmed to $275/st ($8.59/unit) FOB Verdigris, Okla., and $280/st ($8.75/unit) FOB Woodward, Okla., for 4Q tons, up from the prior $255-$265/st ($7.97-$8.28/unit) FOB range.

South Central:

The UAN-32 market was reported at $275-$290/st ($8.59-$9.06/unit) FOB South Central terminals, with the low in Louisiana and the high reported in Kentucky.

Southeast:

UAN-32 pricing firmed to $260-$270/st ($8.13-$8.44/unit) FOB port terminals in the Southeast, up from the previous $250-$260/st ($7.81-$8.13/unit) FOB range.

Ammonium Nitrate

Western Cornbelt:

Ammonium nitrate prices dropped to $330-$360/st FOB in the Western Cornbelt, with the low confirmed at Caruthersville.

Southern Plains:

The ammonium nitrate market was quoted at $330-$360/st FOB in the Southern Plains, with the low reported at Muskogee, Okla.

South Central:

The ammonium nitrate market strengthened to $320/st FOB Yazoo City, Miss., up from the prior $290/st FOB level, with upriver terminals quoted in the $330-$350/st FOB range in the South Central region, depending on location.

Ammonium Sulfate

US Gulf:

While no new NOLA business was confirmed for ammonium sulfate, sources were in agreement that the next trades will be considerably higher than the last-done $220/st FOB, with the latest indications falling in the $255-$270/st FOB range, if not higher. The increase is fueled by a tight market, sources said, as well as higher postings from producers.

Interoceanic (IOC) on Sept. 19 raised its NOLA price for granular ammonium sulfate to $295/st FOB for September-October shipment and $305/st FOB for November-December, up from the company’s Aug. 28 reference of $255/st FOB. AdvanSix on Sept. 15 announced new NOLA postings at the $270/st FOB level.

Eastern Cornbelt:

The granular ammonium sulfate market firmed to $300-$335/st FOB in the Eastern Cornbelt, fueled by new postings from AdvanSix and IOC.

Following AdvanSix’s move to $310/st FOB river warehouses for 4Q tons on Sept. 15, IOC on Sept. 19 raised its granular ammonium sulfate postings for September-October shipment to $335/st FOB Upper Mississippi, Illinois, and Ohio river terminals, up $35/st from the company’s Aug. 28 postings. IOC’s prices for November-December shipment include $345/st FOB Illinois and Ohio river terminals and $350/st FOB Upper Mississippi River terminals.

Western Cornbelt:

The granular ammonium sulfate market was unchanged at $275-$300/st FOB in the Western Cornbelt, with the low confirmed at St. Louis and the high reported at Caruthersville and out of spot Iowa shipping points.

IOC’s Sept. 19 granular ammonium sulfate postings for September-October shipment include $330/st FOB St. Louis, $335/st FOB Upper Mississippi River terminals, $345/st FOB Sioux City, Iowa, Omaha, Neb., and Casselton, N.D., and $340/st rail-DEL in the Northern Plains. IOC’s new postings for November-December shipment are $15/st higher.

Southern Plains:

The granular ammonium sulfate market firmed to $290-$295/st FOB in the Southern Plains, up from the previous $270-$290/st FOB range, with the high reported at Catoosa/Inola and the low at Houston.

IOC’s Sept. 19 postings for September-October shipment jumped to $300/st FOB Houston, up $25/st from the company’s Aug. 28 reference of $275/st FOB.

South Central:

The ammonium sulfate market was pegged in a broad range at $220-$300/st FOB in the South Central region, with the low confirmed in southern Mississippi and the high in Arkansas.

IOC’s granular ammonium sulfate posting FOB Delta terminals firmed on Sept. 19 to $330/st FOB for September-October shipment, up $35/st from the company’s Aug. 28 posting, with new reference pricing for November-December shipments jumping to $345/st FOB Delta terminals.

Southeast:

Ammonium sulfate remained in a broad range at $220-$305/st FOB in the Southeast, depending on location and grade, with the low confirmed in Alabama and Florida. The latest postings from AdvanSix FOB Hopewell, Va., included $305/st for granular, $275/st for mid-grade, and $255/st for standard.

China:

The market’s initial reaction to the potentially limited awards in the RCF urea tender caused some traders to predict a softer urea market, which in turn was reflected in the amsul market. Sources reported new business settling in the upper-$160s/mt FOB on expectations of lower urea prices. One producer added that softer demand, particularly in Southeast Asia, helped to push prices below $170/mt FOB.

The bulk of China’s amsul exports were done in small lots. Trade Data Monitor reported January-August exports at 8.5 million mt, a 21% increase from the 7 million mt shipped through the same period of 2022. Brazil continued as China’s largest amsul buyer, taking 2.6 million mt during the period, followed by Myanmar with 1 million mt. The remaining 58% of exports went to 97 countries, with each buyer taking small lots.

August exports were 1.5 million mt, up marginally from 1.3 million mt shipped one year earlier. Brazil took 855,000 mt, for 55% of the month’s total.

South Korea:

Softer Asian demand has pushed down exports from South Korea. Trade Data Monitor reported January-August exports at 123,000 mt, a 35% decline from the year-ago 190,000 mt. August exports stood at 19,000 mt, off from the 46,000 mt shipped in August 2022.

Brazil:

The landed price of ammonium sulfate pulled back to $205-$220/mt CFR from the week-ago $210-$220/mt CFR, with most business falling toward the bottom of the range.

Ammonium sulfate prices softened at Rondonopolis, to $310-$325/mt FOB ex-warehouse from the prior $320-$350/mt FOB range.

DAP/MAP

Central Florida:

DAP trucks loading from Central Florida were posted at $540/st FOB, unchanged from last week. MAP trucks were reported at $615/st FOB, also steady from the prior report.

US Gulf:

NOLA DAP barges lifted to $525-$545/st FOB, up $5-$10/st from the week-ago $520-$535/st FOB range. MAP barges softened, however, to $615-$645/st FOB from last week’s $615-$653/st FOB.

US Exports:

Sources reported an export DAP sale at $570/mt FOB, a $20/mt increase from the last reported price.

Eastern Cornbelt:

DAP was steady at $585-$600/st FOB in the Eastern Cornbelt, with the low confirmed at Cincinnati. MAP was quoted at $685-$700/st FOB in the region, with the high reported at Ottawa, Ill.

Western Cornbelt:

DAP pricing edged up to $580-$590/st FOB in Western Cornbelt, with the low at St. Louis and the high reported at Caruthersville. MAP was pegged at $680-$690/st FOB in the region, with the St. Louis market noted at the $680-$685/st FOB level.

Southern Plains:

DAP firmed to $590-$600/st FOB in the Southern Plains, with the low confirmed at Catoosa/Inola and the high at Houston. MAP was quoted at $690-$700/st FOB, with both the high and low reported at Catoosa/Inola during the week.

South Central:

DAP pricing firmed slightly to $585-$590/st FOB terminals in the South Central region.

Southeast:

MAP postings from Nutrien were steady at $625/st FOB Aurora, N.C., and White Springs, Fla.

China:

Sources reported a DAP sale from a Chinese supplier to Pakistan at $596/mt CFR, for a netback to China of $570-$575/mt FOB. This matches earlier estimates following an Indian purchase from PhosAgro at $595/mt CFR.

Phosphate producers approached the government seeking permission to ship out 1 million mt of DAP in the fourth quarter, sources said. The move came as prices for DAP continue to show strength. Traders speculate that $600/mt FOB could soon be achieved.

For now, there are reports that DAP exports are being restricted by the customs inspection process, and not from limitations in production.

January-August DAP exports firmed 51% year-over-year, according to Trade Data Monitor, to 3.3 million mt from 2.2 million mt, with India taking 2 million mt. August exports fell 37%, however, to 329,000 mt from 518,000 mt shipped in August 2022.

MAP exports totaled 1.5 million mt in January-August, a 13% increase from the year-ago 1.3 million mt. Brazil took 576,000 mt, followed by Argentina with 229,000 mt. August MAP exports were 322,000 mt, more than double the 157,000 mt recorded in August 2022.

India: 

Sources reported a $595/mt CFR DAP sale into India from PhosAgro. The Indian market’s continued strength has traders speculating that $600/mt CFR could be hit by the end of the month.

The latest price, said one trader, fits with calculations based on an Indian buyer’s recent $985/mt CFR phos acid deal with JPMC and Nutrien. The estimated price of DAP from this phos acid price is right around $595/mt ex-plant, he said.

Brazil:

Limited availability outweighed low seasonal demand, lifting Brazil MAP import prices to $530-$540/mt CFR. New offers were reported at $550/mt CFR. Players attributed the supply issues to a lack of availability from multiple producers, while rising feedstock prices and reports of phosphate rock problems at China have added to the upward pressure.

Several Rondonopolis suppliers increased MAP prices during the week, bringing the market to $650-$660/mt FOB ex-warehouse, slightly above the previous $645-$660/mt FOB. With no significant demand anticipated for the next corn safrinha season, sources expect prices to decline after deliveries for the 2023/24 soybean season are completed.

TSP

US Gulf:

NOLA TSP prices increased to $460-$465/st FOB, players noted, above the last reported $450-$465/st FOB range.

Eastern Cornbelt:

TSP remained at the $535/st level FOB Cincinnati and Ottawa for the latest offers.

Western Cornbelt:

TSP was quoted at $500-$510/st FOB St. Louis and $520/st FOB Caruthersville in mid-September.

South Central:

TSP pricing was higher in the South Central region, firming to $505-$525/st FOB from the prior $480-$515/st FOB range.

Brazil:

TSP import prices at Brazil were unchanged at $420-$430/mt CFR. With limited tons available until later in the year, Rondonopolis TSP prices remained stable at $510/mt FOB for nearby delivery. Offers were indicated at $530/mt FOB ex-warehouse for the 2024/25 soybean crop.

SSP

Brazil:

Brazil SSP 19-21 import prices were noted at $210-$240/mt CFR, widening from $215-$230/mt CFR at last report, with the majority of offers reported at the top of the range.

Demand for SSP at Rondonopolis has decreased as soybean planting progresses. The few nearby offers in the market are priced high due to reduced availability, at $450/mt FOB ex-warehouse. Offers for the 2024/25 soybean season ran $340-$370/mt FOB ex-warehouse, above the week-ago $340-$360/mt FOB.