US Gulf:
The NOLA urea barge market firmed to $305-$312/st FOB for July and $310-$315/st FOB for August trades, up from last week’s $300-$307/st FOB range for limited July business.
Eastern Cornbelt:
Urea
was unchanged at $365-$375/st FOB in the Eastern Cornbelt, with the low
confirmed at Cincinnati, Ohio, and the high out of inland warehouses.
Western Cornbelt:
Urea pricing remained at $345-$365/st FOB in the
Western Cornbelt, with the low reported at St. Louis, Mo.
California:
Urea was steady at $490-$540/st FOB in California,
with the low reported for granular bulk tons at Stockton and the high for
prilled urea at San Diego. Bagged granular urea remained at $560/st FOB
Stockton during the week. No current DEL prices were confirmed in late July.
Pacific Northwest:
The urea market was quoted at $415-$420/st FOB in the
Pacific Northwest, with the low confirmed at Riverview, Ore. Delivered tons
were reported at $400-$410/st in the region.
Western Canada:
Urea was quoted at C$615/mt FOB and C$640/mt DEL in
Western Canada.
India:
India’s
urea stockpile remains high at an estimated 10 million mt, sources said. Demand
is expected to pick up in the third quarter, however, leading sources to
speculate that another tender could be called as early as mid-August. Rashtriya
Chemicals and Fertilizers Ltd. (RCF) could run the next tender, players said.
For
now, traders are busy fulfilling the awards issued in the recent Indian Potash
Ltd. (IPL) tender. Several vessels have reportedly been booked to pick up
tonnage in the Arab Gulf ahead of the tender’s late-September shipping deadline
The
Indian government announced its final FY2024-25 budget. The amount allotted for
fertilizer subsidies was dramatically slashed from the previous year.
The
subsidy allocation for the current fiscal year is Rs164,000 crore ($19.6
billion), down significantly from the Rs251,369 crore ($30 billion) that was
ultimately approved for the 2023-24 fiscal year. The bulk of the subsidy
payments will go toward maintaining a set price of about $64/mt for urea.
Phosphates and potash subsidies fluctuate, as they are based on market prices
and nutrient content.
Mediterranean:
Buyers in France and Italy are reportedly
beginning to resist offers of $400/mt CFR, with last week’s short-lived outage
in Egypt failing to stir interest for fresh tons in the Mediterranean. Demand
in nearby Turkey and Romania is also reportedly muted. As a result, granular
urea in the Mediterranean was stable at $385-$400/mt CFR.
Southeast
Asia:
There were no
reports of fresh spot granular urea business in Southeast Asia. Still, traders
active in the region reported improved availability, despite producers
indicating that they are well committed for August. Granular urea pricing was
unchanged at $350-$366/mt FOB.
Indonesia:
Early-week
rumors that Indonesia’s recent granular selling tender was being scrapped –
even after an award was made at $366/mt FOB – were discounted by traders as the
week wore on. By the end of the week, Pupuk confirmed the sale of 30,000 mt to
Universal Harvester, of the Philippines, with the tons scheduled to ship in
early August.
Pupuk
had offered up to 45,000 mt in the tender and hoped it could sell even more
following the award. Buyers were reluctant to step up to the $366/mt FOB level,
however.
There
were reports this week that Pupuk entered into talks that would move the deal
from a flat fee to a formula basis. According to one trader, Pupuk offered tons
at a rate to be determined by the published average of the export price, plus a
premium. The premium would be used to cover transportation and other handling
costs. So far, the trader noted, no one has taken Pupuk up on the offer.
Pupuk
closed a prilled urea tender of just 5,000 mt this week at $378/mt FOB. Sources
reported that Universal Harvester was also involved in the deal. This tender
closed significantly higher than the last prilled sale of $323/mt, and places
prills in the unusual position of being priced at a premium to granular.
Sources said the absence of Chinese urea in the global market has made securing
prilled urea more difficult.
Middle
East:
Producers
are spending time covering IPL/Indian tender awards and long-term contract
sales in lieu of chasing spot deals. At least three ships are slated for
imminent arrival to the Arab Gulf to begin loading tons for India. In the end,
IPL only took about 433,000 mt in its tender, with most of the product expected
to come from the Arab Gulf.
Regional
shortages of natural gas in Egypt forced some facilities to close last week,
and sources said these plants are still down. Plants located in areas where gas
is still available are continuing to run, however. Egyptian producers with
plants that remain in operation reported production at approximately 80% of
rated capacity, with some indicating slightly higher output.
Prices
moved up on a sale of two 5,000 mt lots by NCIC late last week at $362-$367/mt
FOB, in line with expectations. Before the deal was closed, producers had been
pushing for deals in the low-$370/mt FOB for August and September loading.
Producer price ideas have now moved into the mid- to upper-$370s/mt FOB, with
some even calling for $380/mt FOB.
China:
Restrictions
on urea exports remain in effect. An increasing number of traders are beginning
to fear that rumors indicating the restrictions could be kept in place for the
rest of the year may be true.
Prices
ex-factory dropped significantly this week. The price dipped to RMB2,050/mt
ex-plant early in the week, sources said, before bouncing to RMB2,070/mt by
July 25, translating to an estimated export price in the $307-$310/mt FOB
range. The lack of spot business from China has left domestic prices as the
only way to indicate where export prices might stand at any given time.
While
the lower price should make export inspectors happy, the country’s urea
reserves seem insufficient to placate the inspectors, sources said. There are
reports that more plants are stepping up production. Until prices move even
lower than current levels and reserves grow much larger, sources said there is
little hope for any urea exports.
January-June
urea exports totaled 140,000 mt, according to Trade Data Monitor, down86% from the year-ago 1 million mt, when exports were partially restricted.
The
tonnage reflected small-quantity sales, mostly shipped to buyers in the
Southeast Asian market in containers. South Korea topped the buyer list with
53,000 mt. Sources said shipments were permitted to that country due to the
need for urea as part of its anti-pollution program. Japan accounted for 12% of
exports with 17,000 mt, while 15 countries bought a total of 51,000 mt in
1,000-9,000 mt lots. Another 33 countries received material in 1 mt-900 mt
lots.
June
exports were reported at 74,000 mt, down 67% from the 224,000 mt shipped in
June 2023. Second-quarter sales to six countries totaled 114,000 mt, compared
to the 483,000 mt spread between 50 countries in April-June 2023.
Brazil:
The urea
market remained firm in Brazil, supported by the uptrend kicked off by India’s
latest tender. Granular urea imports were steady at $360-$370/mt CFR, with
bidding reported at $350-$358/mt CFR failing to attract a seller.
Rondonópolis
prices were stable in the $480-$500/mt FOB range. Many growers have been
cautious about taking positions due to the tight planting window, similar to
what occurred in 2023.
While
farmers have continued to request prices in an effort to keep tabs on the
barter ratio for nitrogens, actual sales have slowed with growers focused on
the corn harvest. As summer planting approaches, however, the nitrogen market
is expected to heat up.
Argentina:
January-June
urea imports in Argentina totaled 411,000 mt, Trade Data Monitor
reported, a 138% increase from the year-ago 172,000 mt. Algeria sent 136,000
mt, Nigeria shipped 110,000 mt, and Egypt added 67,000 mt. Bolivia and
Turkmenistan accounted for another 50,000 mt each.
June
imports were noted at 131,000 mt, up 70% from the 77,000 mt received one year
earlier. Second-quarter imports were 210,000 mt, rising from the 144,000 mt
purchased in April-June 2023.