All posts by hlancey@bloomberg.net

Crops/Weather

Eastern Cornbelt:

US Drought Monitor

Temperatures in the 90s were reported in Illinois and Indiana during the week, while parts of central Indiana were hit with strong thunderstorms at midweek, with forecasts warning of damaging winds, hail, and local heavy rain.

Scattered showers also tracked through central Ohio at midweek, with highs reaching the 80s. Hot and hazy conditions were reported in northern Michigan during the week due to smoke from Canadian wildfires.

Crop conditions were in great shape in the region. Good or excellent ratings were assigned to 75-76% of the corn and soybeans in Illinois on July 21, compared with 68-69% in Indiana, 65-68% in Ohio, and 63-68% in Michigan.

Western Cornbelt:

Scattered showers were reported in eastern Iowa early in the week, while much of Iowa and Nebraska were expecting highs in the upper-80s and 90s as the week progressed.

USDA rated 78-79% of Missouri’s corn and soybeans as good or excellent on July 21, compared with 75% in Nebraska and 74-75% in Iowa. Good or excellent ratings were also assigned to 61% of Missouri’s cotton and 84% of the state’s rice crop, along with 76% of Nebraska’s sorghum crop.

California:

High heat, wind, and dry conditions fed a wildfire in Butte County that exploded to 45,000 acres on July 25 from just 6,500 acres the night before, prompting evacuations in both Butte and nearby Tehama County.

California’s cotton crop was 100% good or excellent as of July 21, compared with 89% in Arizona. California rice in the good or excellent categories totaled 95% of the crop on that date.

Pacific Northwest:

Corn Wheat Soybean Index

Much of the Pacific Northwest was under a smoky haze in late July from 60 active wildfires in Oregon and Washington alone, including the massive Durkee fire in Oregon, which had grown to 245,000 acres by midweek.

High temperatures continued to bake the region in late July, sparking strong thunderstorms in Idaho and stressing crops in some areas. Just 41-46% of Washington’s spring wheat and barley were rated as good or excellent on July 21, compared with 60-79% in Idaho and 72-76% in Montana. The winter wheat harvest as of July 21 was 35% complete in Oregon, 10% in Washington, 7% in Idaho, and 3% in Montana.

Western Canada:

A heat warning was issued for southern Manitoba during the week, with temperatures expected to reach 30 C and humidex values climbing to 38 C. Heat warnings were also posted for southern Saskatchewan, with highs reaching 32 C and humidex values topping out at 38 C.

Air quality warnings were in effect across the region due to smoky conditions from at least 170 wildfires in Alberta and British Columbia. Firefighting efforts were hampered by severe thunderstorms that tracked through central Alberta at midweek, producing strong winds and prompting tornado warnings for some locations.

Transportation

US Gulf:

Port Allen Lock will be completely offline from July 30 to Aug. 3 and again on Aug. 12-15 for miter gate repair. Transit through the site was unavailable for nearly one month following a miter gate hinge anchorage failure on March 28. Navigation was unavailable through the Louisiana Highway 1 Bridge overnight on July 20, sources said.

Guidewall work at Bayou Sorrel Lock will limit daytime movements through Oct. 30. Delays topped out around the 10-hour mark, down from 37 hours at last check. Brazos Lock repairs will continue into October, restricting Monday-Friday travel from 7 a.m. to 7 p.m. Intermittent 4-13 hour wait times were reported during the week.

Repairs in progress at the San Jacinto River Bridge in the Houston area are expected to run through July and possibly into late August. With passage completely unavailable through the channel’s eastern side, tows were limited to single-wide configurations through the western side of the channel.

Industrial Lock waits were counted up to 25 hours during the week.

Mississippi River:

Rapidly normalizing water levels allowed Mississippi River locks to return to operation during the week.

A project underway at Mile 759 of the lower river prompted southbound closures from 7 a.m. to 7 p.m. daily, sources said. The effort is expected to run through Sept. 18. Navigation will be unavailable through the Fort Madison Bridge between 9 a.m. and 2 p.m. on July 28 and again on Aug. 1.

Early-week delays were reported up to 21 hours at Lock 16, and waits tracked up to six hours at Lock 22. Corps data showed intermittent 5-10 hour wait times at Lock 24. Lock 21 will shut to daytime navigation on Aug. 13, sources said.

On the Cumberland River, Old Hickory Lock was reported offline through Aug. 1 for hydraulic line replacement. Old Hickory Lock was previously closed to daytime travel on June 10-27. The Minnesota River gauge at Savage, Minn., fell below the area’s 697-foot action-stage threshold on July 22, ahead of the July 24 forecast.

Illinois River:

Dredging continued from 6 a.m. to 6 p.m. at Miles 87-88 of the Illinois River during the week, after low water levels were reported blocking navigation one week earlier. While traffic was said to be largely unaffected, larger tows were advised to contact the dredge in advance to request additional passing room if needed.

Maximum loading drafts continued to be posted at 9.5 feet for Miles 1-231 and 9.0 feet above Mile 231. Dresden Island Lock was closed to navigation from 7 a.m. to 7 p.m. on July 24 for a control systems upgrade, a Corps notice indicated.

Ohio River:

Sources described water levels as falling slowly at the lower end of the Ohio River. Loading drafts were limited to 10-10.5 feet, depending on location and direction of travel – a 5-10% reduction from normal levels ­– while tow lengths continued up to a 15-barge maximum.

McAlpine Lock is shut to southbound travel from 7 a.m. to 7 p.m. through Nov. 30, with delays reported as high as 11 hours. Travel through the primary chamber at Markland Lock is unavailable for 19 hours daily through Aug. 2, forcing detours through the auxiliary chamber. The closures are scheduled to repeat between Aug. 12 and Sept. 6.

The Hannibal Lock main chamber is closed for miter gate repairs through Nov. 8, producing waits up to 23 hours.

The main chamber at John T. Myers Lock is set to go offline from Aug. 21 through Nov. 9 for maintenance. A similar outage in October 2023 resulted in delays up to four days in length. Belleville Lock will see a 30-day primary and secondary chamber shutdown before the end of the year.

Daily closures were reported at Kentucky Lock, on the Tennessee River, from 6 a.m. to 6 p.m. through July 24 for gate fender replacement. Midweek delays were quoted up to 52 hours. Wilson Lock was closed to daytime travel from July 22 through Aug. 8, with intermittent waits noted in the 11-22 hour range.

Arkansas River:

The Van Buren Bridge, at Mile 300.8 of the Arkansas River, will close for repairs on Aug. 2-Sept. 8, sources said. A single opening to pass queued vessels is tentatively scheduled following the ninth day of work. Webbers Falls Lock is set to close from Aug. 26 through Sept. 8 for miter gate inspections.

Canada Moves to Curb Foreign Takeovers of Mining Companies as Glencore Completes Teck Deal

Canada is making it harder for foreign firms to acquire its biggest mining companies, potentially taking some of the global industry’s attractive takeover targets off the table, according to Bloomberg.

The Canadian government will only approve foreign takeovers of large Canadian mining companies involved in critical minerals production “in the most exceptional of circumstances,” according to the latest guidelines from Industry Minister Francois-Philippe Champagne. The directive was issued on July 4 as part of a sweeping effort by Prime Minister Justin Trudeau’s government to protect Canada’s critical minerals sector and national security interests.

“Canadians cannot ignore that we are in a world of geopolitical competition, with critical minerals at the very core of advanced industrial and defense policies,” the statement said. “Canada welcomes foreign investment and recognizes how important it is, particularly for small Canadian firms to advance exploration and site development efforts. In this light, the Government must balance protecting Canada’s strategic interests while supporting the development of Canada’s resources.”

The move appears to insulate domestic companies from takeovers when the world’s biggest mining firms are hunting for metals that underpin the global transition away from fossil fuels. Industry giants such as Glencore Plc, BHP Group Ltd., and Rio Tinto Plc have been seeking to boost exposure to metals like copper as the appetite for large, transformational deals returns across the industry.

Canadian mining firms, in turn, have become appealing targets. Teck Resources Ltd. spent much of last year fending off Glencore’s $23 billion takeover attempt before the Swiss company opted instead to just buy the company’s metallurgical coal business for $6.9 billion, which the Canadian government approved earlier in July and Glencore hoped to complete by July 11. Teck also produces ammonium sulfate.

Canada and its Western allies have become increasingly concerned about securing critical minerals needed for goods ranging from electric vehicle batteries to electronics, prompting them to push to develop supply chains to loosen China’s global dominance over the industry.

“This high bar is reflective of the strategic importance of Canada’s critical minerals sector and how important it is that we take decisive action to protect it,” Champagne said in a July 4 statement.

The government’s list of 34 critical minerals includes copper, zinc, potash, and uranium. Phosphorus was added to the list in June (GM June 14, p. 1), with Natural Resources Canada stating that the mineral is essential for batteries and food security.

A spokesperson for the government declined to comment further on what might constitute exceptional circumstances for transactions. The Mining Association of Canada declined to comment on the new directive.

Foreign takeovers of mining companies have been a touchy topic in Canada ever since a wave of deals 18 years ago took out some of the country’s biggest players, including nickel miner Inco Ltd. and aluminum producer Alcan Inc. When BHP proposed a takeover of Potash Corp. of Saskatchewan Inc. in 2010 (GM Aug. 23, 2010), then-Prime Minister Stephen Harper’s government blocked the deal on the grounds that it wouldn’t be of “net benefit” to the country (GM Nov. 8, 2010).

Teck is one of the few large Canadian metals producers that survived a wave of industry takeovers, even though it has long been coveted by foreign competitors for its copper and zinc assets spread across the Americas. The Vancouver-based company is widely expected to become an acquisition target when founder and top investor Norman Keevil gives up control of the company in the coming years.

“Essentially they are saying to Glencore, don’t bother coming back for the other half of Teck,” said Canadian mining financier Pierre Lassonde, who launched a competing bid for Teck’s coal assets last year. “It looks to me like Ottawa is prepared to ring-fence the Canadian critical metals industry with this new directive.”

Bloomberg previously reported that Rio Tinto had looked in the past at Canadian copper miner First Quantum Minerals Ltd., among other potential deals, although Rio CEO Jakob Stausholm had so far rejected the idea.

Other big Canadian miners include fertilizer producer Nutrien Ltd. uranium giant Cameco Corp, in addition to Ivanhoe Mines Ltd., which has large copper and zinc operations in the Democratic Republic of Congo.

The new directive goes even further than a crackdown on foreign takeovers from state-owned entities that began in October 2022. Champagne’s ministry has thwarted several recent attempts by Chinese companies to make inroads in Canada’s critical minerals sector through takeovers or major investments. The new directive signals that the federal government is wary of foreign takeovers even from companies in friendly nations.

Canada’s crackdown could also constrict access to capital for companies that rely on foreign investment to fund exploration and mining projects. The government is “limiting” funding to the industry with their “more aggressive statements,” said Shane Nagle, a metals and mining analyst with National Bank of Canada. “If that’s going to be challenging to do, they’ll just go elsewhere.”

Potential Canadian Rail Strike Delayed Until Mid-August

The Canadian Industrial Relations Board (CIRB), which is considering whether a strike by nearly 10,000 members of the Teamsters Canada Rail Conference (TCRC) will compromise safety and essential services at the Canadian National (CN) and Canadian Pacific Kansas City (CPKC) railways, announced that it intends to make its decision in the case by Aug. 9, 2024.

No work stoppage can occur until either party files a required 72-hour notice after the CIRB issues its decision, subject to any extension of a cooling off period that may be ordered by the CIRB. Earlier speculation had been that a strike could occur as early as mid-July pending the CIRB’s expected ruling.

The CIRB advised both railroads on July 12 that it will make its decision without holding oral hearings. In the event a decision is not made by Aug. 9, the CIRB said it will provide another update at that time.

“We recognize that the prolonged negotiations are creating uncertainty, and we are working towards providing as much predictability as possible to our employees, customers, and partners,” CN said in response to the CIRB announcement. “Since the beginning of the negotiations, our goal has always been and continues to be to negotiate in good faith with the TCRC to reach a mutually beneficial agreement that maintains safety and stability for our team, our customers, and North American supply chains.”

CPKC also issued a statement saying the CIRB’s announcement “helps provide some predictability regarding the timelines for a potential work stoppage because the parties cannot legally strike or lockout prior to the CIRB issuing its decision.” CPKC also said it has asked the CIRB to extend the cooling off period by 30 days.

“We know supply chain stakeholders would like certainty and predictability concerning a potential work stoppage,” CPKC noted. “That is also why CPKC has proposed to the TCRC that we resolve this labor dispute through binding arbitration.”

The two sides reportedly remain far apart in a negotiated settlement. TCRC members in May voted overwhelmingly to authorize strikes at both CN and CPKC (GM May 3, p. 1), but a walkout threatened on May 22 was postponed when the CIRB intervened (GM May 24, p. 1). TCRC members voted again in late June to authorize strikes at both railroads (GM June 5, p. 1).

“Workers are on the defensive in these negotiations, with both companies demanding a wide range of concessions on issues pertaining to crew scheduling, hours of work, and fatigue management,” TCRC said in a recent statement. “The stumbling blocks are company demands, not union proposals.”

Turkish Billionaire to Fund $750 M Venezuela NH3 Plant

Turkish billionaire Robert Yuksel Yildirim’s holding company has signed a $750 million investment for the construction of an ammonia plant in eastern Venezuela, according to Bloomberg, citing a senior government official.

Pequiven, Venezuela’s state-owned petrochemical company, signed a deal with Yildirim Group for the construction of a plant projected to produce 600,000 mt/y of ammonia, said the official, who asked not to be identified because the discussions aren’t public. The plan was briefly mentioned by Venezuela President Nicolás Maduro during a televised meeting from downtown Caracas on June 7 alongside Yildirim.

“This is a win-win alliance for Turkey and Venezuela, Mr. Yildirim,” Maduro said during the meeting, adding that deals on gold and natural gas were also on the way. “It’s a good decision by the Yildirim companies to arrive in Venezuela on time to invest.”

The plant is still in a design phase and there is no estimated date of completion, the official said. Pequiven and Yildirim didn’t respond to requests for comments.

Maduro is seeking to foster foreign investment from allied nations, such as Turkey, China, and Iran, as renewed US sanctions limit multinational companies’ ability to do business there. Despite the risks, investors have been lured by the possibility of a recovery of Venezuela’s oil industry, the country’s lifeblood.

The socialist leader’s government has given oil majors more operational control in their local joint ventures with PDVSA and recently allowed a foreign company to help manage Venezuela’s failing steel industry.

Yildirim holds a 24% stake in shipping giant CMA CGM SA, one of the world’s biggest container lines. It operates port terminals in Turkey, Sweden, Norway, Portugal, Croatia, Peru, Ecuador, and Guatemala, and runs mining plants in Russia, Kazakhstan, Albania, Kosovo, and the US.

CF, POET Partner on Low-Carbon Ammonia Pilot for Corn, Ethanol

CF Industries Holdings Inc. on July 15 announced a collaboration with POET LLC, the world’s largest producer of biofuel and a global leader in sustainable bioproducts, to pilot the use of low-carbon ammonia fertilizer to reduce the carbon intensity of corn production and ethanol.

As part of the agreement, the companies intend to do the first applications of low-carbon ammonia to corn crops that will be used for ethanol in the fall of 2024. Subsequent applications will be done in the spring of 2025 and the first harvest is expected in the fall of 2025.

“We are pleased to collaborate with POET on this important step forward in developing a low-carbon ethanol value chain that links low-carbon fertilizers to farmers to ethanol production,” said Bert Frost, CF’s Executive Vice President, Sales, Supply Chain and Market Development. “Fertilizers manufactured with a lower carbon intensity provide a quantifiable and certifiable method of decarbonizing bioethanol inputs. We look forward to demonstrating these benefits not just for ethanol production but for corn growers as well.”

CF and POET also intend to develop a low-carbon fertilizer supply chain to track, validate, and certify carbon intensity reduction originating from low-carbon ammonia manufacturing at CF Donaldsonville, La., complex through ethanol production at POET’s production facilities in Bingham Lake, Minn., Emmetsburg, Iowa, Fairmont, Neb., and North Manchester, Ind.

The companies said this includes implementing supply plans with fertilizer retailers serving farms that supply corn to the POET processing plants, and developing monetization opportunities for farmers who use the low-carbon fertilizer. 

“At POET, we have always striven to bring new value to our producers and our partnership with CF Industries continues this mission,” said Christian McIlvain, President of POET Grain. “We want to prepare and educate our corn producers on the realities of the impact of the carbon in their grain. This initiative not only gives producers a low-carbon ammonia option but also provides the opportunity to educate them on their farm’s carbon score and what that could mean for their grain value.”

The project will initially leverage green ammonia from CF’s Donaldsonville complex, where the company recently completed the installation of a 20MW electrolyzer (GM Feb. 16, p. 1). Start-up of the electrolyzer will begin soon, and CF said it intends to purchase renewable energy certificates to pair with the green ammonia production. CF will also begin blue ammonia production in Donaldsonville beginning in 2025 as carbon capture and sequestration commences.

Founded in 1987 and headquartered in Sioux Falls, S.D., POET operates 34 bioprocessing facilities across eight states and employs more than 2,400 team members. The company holds more than 100 patents worldwide.

Yara Inks Fertilizer Deal with PepsiCo to Decarbonize Crop Production

Yara International ASA has signed an agreement with PepsiCo Inc. to provide lower-emission crop nutrients to participating PepsiCo Europe farmers, with a goal of helping decarbonize the food value chain, the companies announced on July 16. Yara will also provide advice and precision farming digital tools.

As part of the partnership, Yara will provide up to 165,000 mt/y of fertilizer to PepsiCo, consisting mostly of Yara Climate Choice fertilizers that include low-carbon products produced from renewable ammonia out of Heryøa, Norway, or from low-carbon ammonia produced via carbon capture and storage (CCS) from a plant planned in Sluiskil, the Netherlands.

Yara will also provide standard fertilizers produced using natural gas, but the aim is to upgrade to lower-carbon Yara Climate Choice fertilizers over time with a goal of fully transitioning to low-carbon fertilizers by 2030.

“To grow a nature-positive food future and transform our food system, we need to collaborate across the food value chain,” said Mónica Andrés Enríquez, Yara’s Executive Vice President for Europe. “We’re excited to work with first movers like PepsiCo to help make this a reality. Decarbonizing food production will be critical to delivering on the Paris Agreement, and farmers will play a key role in helping us get there.”

The fertilizer delivered under the partnership will cover around 25% of Pepsi’s crop fertilizer needs in Europe by 2030 and the regenerative agricultural practices will include approximately 1,000 farms covering 128,000 hectares across the EU and UK. PepsiCo, the snack and beverage giant that makes Lay’s potato chips, has said that efforts to decarbonize will focus on potatoes initially before expanding to other crops. 

“This partnership with Yara aligns with our end-to-end transformation known as PepsiCo Positive (pep+) and will be critical as we transition towards the net-zero food system of the future,” said Archana Jagannathan, Chief Sustainability Officer at PepsiCo Europe.

“Targeting Scope 3 emissions is central to our pep+ agenda, but it can be one of the most challenging areas to directly influence,” Jagannathan added. “Providing our farmers with fertilizers that have a lower carbon footprint and supporting them to improve crop nutrition end-to-end will allow us to make a significant step towards our target of achieving net zero by 2040.”

Yara has inked similar collaborations with companies in the past. In January 2022, Yara signed an agreement to bring fossil-free fertilizers to market with Lantmännen, the Swedish ag cooperative (GM Jan. 14, 2022) and later that year Yara signed an agreement to provide low-carbon fertilizers to Argentinian potato producer El Parque Papas (GM Dec. 9, 2022).