US Gulf:
Limited NOLA urea
business this week was reported at $300-$302/st FOB for loaded barges and
$288-$297/st FOB for full July, down from last week’s $303-$308/st FOB range.
Eastern Cornbelt:
Urea
was quoted at $365-$375/st FOB in the Eastern Cornbelt, with the low confirmed
at Cincinnati, Ohio. Most Illinois River terminals were reported at the $370/st
FOB level for July-August tons.
Western Cornbelt:
Urea in the Western Cornbelt was pegged at
$345-$365/st FOB, with the low reported at St. Louis, Mo.
California:
Urea was unchanged at $490-$540/st FOB in California,
with the low reported for granular bulk tons at Stockton and the high for
prilled urea at San Diego. Bagged granular urea pricing remained at the $560/st
FOB Stockton level during the week. No current DEL prices were confirmed in California
in early July.
Pacific Northwest:
The urea market was quoted at $415-$420/st FOB in the
Pacific Northwest, depending on location, with delivered tons reported at
$385-$410/st in early July.
Western Canada:
Urea was up slightly in Western Canada, to C$630-$640/mt DEL from the prior C$625-$640/mt range, depending on time of shipment.
India:
The
market continued to await the close of the Indian Potash Ltd. (IPL) tender on
July 8. Sources expect prices to run slightly above the last tender and that
IPL will take less than 1 million mt, with the bulk of the product coming from
the Arab Gulf. There are also reports that a number of traders are talking with
Russian suppliers for support in the tender.
Black Sea:
Prices remained
stable for Black Sea prilled urea at $305-$310/mt FOB. Sources continue to
speculate that Russian prilled will make a large appearance in the IPL/India
tender that is slated to close July 8.
Turkey:
January-May
urea imports fell 6% year-over-year, according to Trade Data Monitor, to
1.6 million mt from 1.7 million mt. Oman led suppliers with 849,000 mt, while
Egypt added 517,000 mt. May imports were noted at 280,000 mt, a 24% decline
from the 368,000 mt received in May 2023.
Ethiopia:
Urea
imports to Ethiopia stood at 502,000 mt in January-June, Trade Data Monitor
reported, more than double the 250,000 mt received in January-June 2023. Egypt
supplied 60% of the tonnage with 304,000 mt, followed by Oman with 155,000 mt.
Ethiopia imported 205,000 mt in June, a significant increase from the 50,000 mt
received one year earlier. Second-quarter imports were counted at 255,000 mt,
up from 100,000 mt in April-June 2023.
Mediterranean:
Granular
urea in the Mediterranean was up slightly at $375-$385/mt CFR.
European urea buying is seasonally muted,
easing concerns and moderating the price impact of prolonged Egyptian outages.
Fresh offers in Italy were heard at $385/mt CFR, and with Yara’s production
still down, stocks at Ravenna port are low. Elsewhere in the Mediterranean,
French buyers are not motivated to resupply and offers of $390/mt CFR and above
failed to attract interest.
Southeast
Asia:
Southeast Asia
granular urea pricing remained at $312-$350/mt FOB. No granular urea sales were
reported this week in the region as suppliers assess their positions ahead of
the IPL tender closing on July 8. Availability is limited, with Kaltim in
turnaround and Bintulu tripped.
Indonesia:
Pupuk
Holdings on July 4 called a snap tender to close July 5 for up to 45,000 mt of
granular urea. This is Pupuk’s first tender since mid-May, when the company
sold 280,000 mt of product for June and July shipment. The tons offered this
week were said to be for August shipment.
While
Pupuk did not indicate a reserve price, prior to the tender call sources said
the producer would be looking for a minimum of $350/mt FOB. That idea was based
on recent sales from Malaysia and Brunei in the mid- to upper-$340s/mt FOB.
Tender results were not available as Green Markets went to press on July
5.
The
tender call surprised many in the industry. Sources were expecting Pupuk to
hold off until the IPL/Indian tender closes on July 8. In calling a tender now,
Pupuk might be helping to establish a price for the Indian tender more to its
liking. One trader noted that any offer into India under $360/mt CFR would not
sit well with the Indonesians.
Thailand:
Urea
imports totaled 1.1 million mt in January-May, according to Trade Data
Monitor, a 20% increase from the year-ago 931,000 mt. Saudi Arabia, which
traditionally offers steep discounts to Thai buyers, sent 461,000 mt. May
imports were 173,000 mt, down by almost half from the 329,00 mt received in the
prior May.
Middle
East:
Traders
are reportedly bidding in the $340s/mt FOB while producers continue to hold
offers in the $350s/mt FOB. The lack of new spot business prevented any
confirmable price changes.
Producers
are slowly rebuilding their inventories after several plants were taken offline
for routine maintenance. The area’s return to production is coming just as
India called a urea tender. Sources expect the bulk of the tons offered in the
tender to come from the Arab Gulf.
Natural
gas supplies were being restored to urea production facilities during the week,
Egyptian producers reported. Some plants have begun to slowly ramp up
operations, though concerns remain that supplies could be cut back once again.
MOPCO
is reportedly starting up only one of its three urea lines. One trader said the
move made sense given the volatility of gas supplies in Egypt.
The
recent closure of plants cost the country an estimated 550,000 mt of its
roughly 7 million mt/y production capacity, sources said. Once production is
back up and any domestic concerns are covered, sources speculated that
producers will be aiming for at least a $30/mt price increase, placing Egyptian
prices in line with recent deals closed by Algeria in the $370s/mt FOB.
China:
Rumors
from China now indicate the government may extend its export restrictions into
October. The restrictions were initially slated to be lifted in June. However,
concerns surrounding rising prices in the domestic market prompted the
government to block exports in an effort to force the local market down.
In
addition to discouraging exports, the government is said to be leaning on
producers to increase output. Most plants are reportedly functioning at just
60% of rated capacity. Sources said the government would like to see production
increase to at least 80%.
Brazil:
Brazil
granular urea prices were steady at $355-$365/mt CFR. Buyers remained on the
sidelines pending the results of the Indian tender, and the week’s limited
demand was further constrained by the devaluation of the Brazilian real.
International factors remained largely unchanged, with natural gas supply in
Egypt gradually returning while Chinese export restrictions continue.
Sanctioned product was offered at $340/mt CFR.
A 5% week-over-week decline in
corn prices reportedly impacted sentiment at Rondonópolis, though buyers still
have time to decide on fertilizer purchases for the second corn crop and how
best to maximize barter ratios. Prices fell in the $480-$500/mt FOB range for
immediate delivery. Fourth-quarter deals closed above $500/mt FOB, with offers
noted at $505-$510/mt FOB.