All posts by hlancey@bloomberg.net

Ammonium Thiosulfate

Amthio, Eastern Cornbelt, Market Watch, South Central, Southern Plains, Western Cornbelt

Eastern Cornbelt:

The ammonium thiosulfate market remained at $240-$270/st FOB in the Eastern Cornbelt, with the low reported at Cincinnati and the high in Indiana.

Western Cornbelt:

Ammonium thiosulfate pricing was unchanged at $250-$275/st FOB in the Western Cornbelt, with both the high and low reported in Iowa.

Southern Plains:

Ammonium thiosulfate prices were steady at $215-$225/st FOB in Texas.

South Central:

The ammonium thiosulfate market continued at $260-$265/st FOB Memphis in mid-September.

CAN

CAN, Germany, Market Watch

Germany:

There was no new activity reported for CAN in Germany, with several parts of the country affected by floods from Storm Boris, which caused severe damage to roads, railways, and cropland in Central Europe. With no new deals confirmed, CAN prices were stable at €275-€285/mt CIF.

Crops/Weather

Crops/Weather, Eastern Cornbelt, Market Watch, South Central, Southeast, Southern Plains, Western Cornbelt

Eastern Cornbelt:

US Drought Monitor

Summer weather lingered in the Eastern Cornbelt in mid-September, with highs reaching the 80s and low-90s in all three states. Spotty showers were possible in parts of Illinois as the week progressed, and also in northern Ohio by the weekend, but otherwise conditions were described as dry and ideal for harvest.

Harvest progress in the region was 5-7% complete for corn and 4-6% for soybeans at mid-month, with good or excellent ratings assigned to 72-77% of the acreage in Illinois, 63% in Indiana, and 39-40% in Ohio.

Western Cornbelt:

Highs in the mid- to upper-80s were common across the Western Cornbelt during the week, though strong storms pushed through central Missouri on Sept. 19, producing large hail and damaging winds in some locations. Severe storms were also expected in central and northern Iowa late in the week.

The corn harvest as of Sept. 15 had progressed to 25% complete in Missouri and 2-5% in Iowa and Nebraska, with good or excellent ratings assigned to 84% of the crop in Missouri, 77% in Iowa, and 68% in Nebraska. The regional soybean harvest was 1-4% complete by that date, with 65-77% of the acreage rated as good or excellent.

Nebraska growers also had 1% of the sorghum crop in the bin by mid-month, with 72% rated as good or excellent. Missouri’s rice harvest was 40% complete by Sept. 15.

Southern Plains:

Corn Wheat Soybean Index

Highs in the upper-80s and 90s were common across the Southern Plains during the week, with isolated thunderstorms tracking through eastern Kansas as the week progressed.

Oklahoma City was bracing for near-record heat into the weekend, with temperatures surging to the upper-90s and the heat index rising to 105 degrees. Similar conditions were reported across Texas, though slightly cooler weather was expected during the final week of September.

Patches of extreme-to-exceptional drought were reported in western Texas and southern New Mexico at mid-month, with severe-to-extreme drought conditions extending across northern Texas and central Oklahoma.

The drought was evident in crop ratings at mid-month. The corn harvest as of Sept. 15 was 80% complete in Texas and 26% in Kansas, with good or excellent ratings assigned to 41% of the crop in Texas, 38% in Kansas, and 34% in Colorado. The Kansas soybean crop was 51% good or excellent, while cotton in those two categories totaled 40% of the acreage in Kansas, 36% in Oklahoma, and just 28% in Texas.

Growers were also tackling the sorghum harvest, with progress rated at 81% complete in Texas, 18% in Oklahoma, and 5% in Kansas in mid-September. Oklahoma’s sorghum crop was 59% good or excellent, compared with 47% in Texas, 38% in Kansas, and 34% in Colorado.

South Central:

Summer heat continued to bake much of the South Central region, with highs reported in the low- to mid-90s during the week.

Conditions were also dry in much of the region after last week’s torrential rain from Hurricane Francine, which dropped 8-12 inches of rain in Louisiana and caused considerable crop damage from flooding and high winds.

The corn harvest as of Sept. 15 was tracking ahead of average at 46% complete in Tennessee and 33% in Kentucky, with 70% of Kentucky’s crop and 45% of Tennessee’s rated as good or excellent. The regional rice harvest was well advanced at 93% complete in Louisiana and Texas, 80% in Mississippi, and 68% in Arkansas.

The soybean harvest was 44-46% complete in Mississippi and Louisiana, 29% in Arkansas, 22% in Tennessee, and 11% in Kentucky by mid-September, with good or excellent ratings assigned to 73% of the crop in Louisiana, 66% in Arkansas, 61% in Mississippi, 56% in Kentucky, and 45% in Tennessee.

The regional cotton harvest was 1-6% complete by Sept. 15, with fully 81% of Louisiana’s crop rated as good or excellent, compared with 67% in Arkansas, 49% in Mississippi, and 47% in Tennessee.

Southeast:

Coastal areas of North Carolina were hit with historic rains on Sept. 16 as a powerful system churned through the area. Carolina Beach was under a state of emergency after 18 inches of rain fell in 12 hours, causing widespread flooding and power outages. Other areas registered more than a foot of rain, with rainfall rates exceeding 4-5 inches per hour in some locations.

While North Carolina battled record rainfall, drought ranging from moderate to severe continued to cover most of Georgia, northern Alabama, and central South Carolina at mid-month. Temperatures in the mid- to upper-80s were expected as the week advanced, down from highs in the 90s at mid-month.

North Carolina’s corn was 47% harvested by Sept. 15, with just 12% of the crop rated as good and fully 77% falling in the poor or very poor categories. Soybeans in the state were 46% good or excellent, with 1% of the crop harvested by mid-month.

The regional cotton harvest was just getting started, with good or excellent ratings assigned to 74% of the crop in North Carolina, 65% in Virginia, 53% in Georgia, 52% in South Carolina, and 49% in Alabama. The peanut harvest was 8% complete in Florida and 1-3% in the rest of the Southeast, with 85% of Virginia’s crop rated as good or excellent, compared with 81% in North Carolina, 61% in Alabama, 59% in South Carolina, and 57% in Georgia and Florida.

Transportation

Illinois River, Market Watch, Mississippi RIver, Ohio River, Transportation, U.S. Gulf

US Gulf:

Draft restrictions continued above New Orleans due to low water levels on the Lower Mississippi River.

Guidewall repairs at Bayou Sorrel Lock will limit daytime movements through Oct. 30, with delays topping out around the 22-hour mark. Brazos Lock repairs projected to continue through the end of October halted weekday travel from 7 a.m. to 7 p.m. Wait times were noted up to 17 hours, down from a maximum 57 hours reported last week.

Harvey Lock remained offline due to reverse head conditions. No tows have locked through the site since Aug. 27, according to Corps data.

Port Allen Lock delays were quoted up to 17.5 hours during the week, while wait times at Industrial Lock registered as high as 17 hours. Intermittent 5-13 hour waits were reported at Algiers Lock, and tows passing Colorado Lock saw occasional 5-10 hour delays.

Mississippi River:

Towing restrictions persisted on the lower river due to reduced water levels. Northbound tows saw loading drafts rolled back by 20-25%, while southbound drafts were reduced by 15-20%, depending on location. Tow lengths were cut by 5-16 barges, depending on location and vessel horsepower, up from 5-10 barges at last report. Delivery times were delayed by an estimated 24-72 hours as a result.

Rains from last week’s Hurricane Francine temporarily pushed the gauge at Vicksburg, Miss., to 6.1 feet on Sept. 19, though river levels were expected to recede to 3.6 feet by Oct. 3. The St. Louis gauge was reported at (-)0.7 feet and falling at midweek, while levels at Memphis were noted at (-)6.9 feet and moving lower on Sept. 19. Memphis was expected to drop to (-)9.4 feet by the first week of October.

Dredging reported at Miles 952, 785, and 485 on the lower river triggered intermittent navigational pauses, sources said, while dredging at Mile 541 was expected to necessitate rolling 24-hour closures.

A mat-laying operation at Mile 759 relocated to Mile 775 on Sept. 18. A pipeline removal project in progress through Sept. 24 was not expected to force travel shutdowns, though channel restrictions could limit navigation while the effort is underway.

Barges loading from NOLA for upper-river ports are largely scheduled to begin final releases in October, sources said. Many tows slated to unload between Dubuque, Iowa, and St. Paul, Minn., will see final departures during the first week of October, while tows destined between St. Louis and Clinton, Iowa., will release from NOLA as late as the third week of October. Upper-river locks are scheduled to close for the winter navigation season between December and March 2025.

Illinois River:        

Maximum loading drafts on the Illinois River were reduced to 9.25 feet for Miles 1-231 and 9.0 feet above Mile 231 due to low water levels. Lockport Lock is projected to shut completely on Jan. 14-March 11, 2025, for vertical lift gate installation, blocking movements to and from Chicago, Ill.

Ohio River:

Loading drafts continued at a maximum 10 feet for both northbound and southbound travel on the Ohio River during the week. Tow lengths were limited to 15 barges for the full length of the river.

Travel through the main chamber at Markland Lock is unavailable for 19 hours daily through Oct. 30, forcing detours through the auxiliary chamber. Wait times were posted up to 20.5 hours during the week, rising from 16.5 hours at last report.

The main chamber at Hannibal Lock is closed for miter gate repairs through Nov. 8, triggering waits up to 20 hours, up from the 18 hours reported last week. McAlpine Lock is shut to downriver travel from 7 a.m. to 7 p.m. through Nov. 30. Belleville Lock will see 30-day main and auxiliary chamber shutdowns before the end of the year, sources said.

Delays ran up to 67 hours at the Tennessee River’s Kentucky Lock during the week, up from 16 hours noted previously. Intermittent 6-16 hours were reported at Wilson Lock.

Ammonia

Ammonia, California, Eastern Cornbelt, India, Indonesia, Market Watch, Middle East, Northwestern Europe, Pacific N.W., Southeast Asia, Tampa, Thailand, Turkey, U.S. Gulf, Western Canada, Western Cornbelt

US Gulf/Tampa:

Tampa ammonia was reported at $530/mt CFR for September, up $55/mt from August’s $475/mt CFR. The increase pushed truck offers out of Gulf Coast production points to the $480/st FOB level, up from the prior month’s $430/st FOB.

Eastern Cornbelt:

The latest ammonia offers in the Eastern Cornbelt reportedly firmed to a high of $570/st FOB on a spot basis, up $10/st from last week, with the low end of the range remaining at $545-$555/st FOB. No offers were reported at Lima, Ohio, which is undergoing a turnaround.

Western Cornbelt:

Ammonia remained at $545-$560/st FOB in the Western Cornbelt, depending on location.

California:

California ammonia prices strengthened on Sept. 1 to $705/st DEL, up $25/st from the previous posting, with aqua ammonia firming to $195-$205/st FOB from the prior $187-$197/st FOB range. The increases followed the $55/mt hike in September Tampa ammonia.

Pacific Northwest:

Ammonia prices in the Pacific Northwest were unchanged at $545/st FOB for anhydrous and $145/st FOB for aqua ammonia. No current delivered prices were confirmed in early September.

Western Canada:

Ammonia remained at C$775/mt FOB Medicine Hat, Alta., for October-November offers, with delivered fall tons in Western Canada firming to C$900-$910/mt from earlier offers in the C$875-$900/mt DEL range.

Northwest Europe:

No new spot ammonia deals were reported in Northwest Europe, as downstream nitrates demand remains muted. Stable gas prices of around $11/MMBtu, as well as higher values at Tampa, Trinidad, and in North Africa, continue to support existing price levels of $550-$560/mt CFR, however, with some sources suggesting as high as $570/mt CFR basis Algerian offers.

Southeast Asia:

No fresh spot business was reported ex-Indonesia and Malaysia, leaving ammonia prices in the region unchanged at $360-$380/mt FOB. Indonesian producers are focused domestically, with Petronas in Malaysia reportedly committed for contract deliveries.

India: 

India’s spot ammonia purchasing has stalled, sources said. The tons currently coming into the country are purchased under contract. Even regular spot buyer FACT has not moved to call a tender for its usual 7,500-10,000 mt of ammonia.

The lack of spot deals leaves sources with only a sense the market’s current state. Sources said the price appears to be settling at $400-$405/mt CFR.

Middle East: 

The flat Indian ammonia market is having a similar effect on suppliers in the Arab Gulf and Iran. The Arab Gulf price appears to have softened, based on limited deals into Southeast Asia and previous Indian business at $345-$350/mt FOB.

Exports from Iran totaled 424,000 mt in January-July, Trade Data Monitor reported, a 20% increase from January-July 2023. India took 381,000 mt, followed by Turkey with 22,000 mt. July 2024 exports of 70,000 mt were up significantly from the 3,000 mt shipped in July 2023.

Nailing down firm exports from Iran is often difficult, as Iranian material is sometimes sent to an intermediary country before being re-exported to a final buyer. In those cases, the export is often reported as coming from the intermediary instead of Iran.

For example, Iran reported sending 22,000 mt to Turkey during the first seven months of the year, according to Trade Data Monitor. However, Turkey recorded just 3,600 mt of Iranian material received during the same period. Oman and Bahrain are the most common countries used as intermediaries, said one source.

Turkey:         

January-July ammonia imports to Turkey were pegged at 495,000 mt, according to Trade Data Monitor, down slightly from 499,000 mt in 2023. Algeria shipped 155,000 mt and Oman sent 104,000 mt. North African suppliers Algeria, Libya, and Egypt combined to supply Turkey with 40% of its total ammonia imports through the first seven months of the year.

Thailand:      

January-July ammonia imports totaled 198,000 mt, Trade Data Monitor reported, a 9% decrease from the year-ago 217,000 mt. Malaysia sent 131,000 mt, followed by Australia with 31,000 mt. July imports were pegged at 31,000 mt, up 9% from the 28,000 mt received in July 2023.

Indonesia:     

January-July ammonia exports totaled 1 million mt, according to Trade Data Monitor, a6% increase from the year-ago 967,000 mt. South Korea took 309,000 mt, China received 206,000 mt, and India purchased 122,000 mt. July exports were pegged at 132,000 mt, up slightly from 131,000 mt in July 2023.

Urea

Argentina, Black Sea, Brazil, California, China, Eastern Cornbelt, ethiopia, India, Indonesia, Market Watch, Mediterranean, Middle East, Pacific N.W., Southeast Asia, Thailand, U.S. Gulf, Urea, Western Canada, Western Cornbelt

US Gulf:

New NOLA urea business was reported at $308-$318/st FOB for September and first-half October during the week, up from last week’s $303-$309/st FOB. The lower numbers reportedly traded early in the week, with the higher levels achieved at midweek in the wake of India’s tender results.

Eastern Cornbelt:

Urea remained at $350-$370/st FOB in the Eastern Cornbelt, with the low reported out of spot Illinois River terminals. The Cincinnati, Ohio, urea market was unchanged at $360-$365/st FOB in early September. In the Great Lakes region, delivered urea to central Michigan was pegged at the $395/st level.

Western Cornbelt:

Urea was unchanged at $340-$365/st FOB in the Western Cornbelt, with the low reported at Port Neal, Iowa. The St. Louis, Mo., market remained at $345-$355/st FOB in early September.

California:

Granular urea was steady at $490-$500/st FOB Stockton for bulk tons and $560/st FOB for bags, with no current rail-DEL prices reported in California.

Pacific Northwest:

The urea market firmed to $415-$430/st FOB in the Pacific Northwest, with the low confirmed at Riverview, Ore. Delivered tons remained at $420-$445/st in the region, depending on location.

Western Canada:

Urea was quoted at C$620-$625/mt FOB and C$645-$650/mt DEL in Western Canada, up C$5/mt from last report.

India: 

The National Fertilizers Ltd. (NFL) tender closed on Aug. 29 with 23 companies participating. One company was disqualified, reportedly for issues related to paperwork. The remaining companies offered a total of 3.9 million mt.

The lowest offer for East Coast delivery came from Ameropa, with 136,300 mt at $349.88/mt CFR. The lowest West Coast price was from OQ Trading, offering 400,000 mt at $340/mt CFR. In total, sellers offered 1.86 million mt for East Coast delivery and 1.97 million mt for delivery to the West Coast. The $10/mt price gap between the East Coast and West Coast offers fell within the normal range for tenders in India, according to sources.

NFL Tender Trader Offers
Offering Company Quantity (mt) West CoastEast Coast
TotalQuantity (mt) $/mt CFR Quantity (mt) $/mt CFR
Aditya Birla Group 400,000 200,000 345.45 200,000 353.00
AgriCommodities 197,500 47,500 345.60 150,000 363.12
Agrifields 40,000   40,000 359.00
Alkagesta 90,000 45,000 350.00 45,000 256.00
Ameropa L1 – ECI 272,600 136,300 346.48 136,300 349.88
Fertiglobe 180,000 90,000 353.00 90,000 360.00
Continental 200,000 100,000 351.00 100,000 357.00
Dreymoor 200,000 100,000 367.92 100,000 374.92
FertiStream 160,000 80,000 351.00 80,000 256.00
Hexagon Fertilizers Asia 100,000 50,000 355.09 50,000 357.09
Indagro 85,000 42,500 346.00 42,500 351.00
Keytrade 100,000 50,000 355.00 50,000 359.50
Koch Fertilizer 190,000 95,000 356.95 95,000 361.95
MacroSource 90,000 45,000 355.00 45,000 362.50
Midgulf 300,000 150,000 350.15 150,000 355.15
OQ Trading L1 – WCI 500,000 400,000 340.00 100,000 355.50
RE Energy 50,000 50,000 358.50  
Medallion 100,000 50,000 344.50 50,000 357.50
Sabic AN 200,000 100,000 345.50 100,000 357.50
Samsung 270,000 135,000 345.20 135,000 352.90
Sun International 100,000     100,000 352.00
Totals (CFR) 3,825,100 1,966,300   1,858,800  
NFL Tender Producer Offers
Offering Company Quantity (mt) $/mt FOB
PIC 45,000 362.00
Total (FOB) 45,000
Total Offers 3,870,100

NFL on Sept. 4 issued awards of 1.17 million mt to 11 companies. West Coast deliveries will total 440,000 mt, while East Coast ports will receive 730,800 mt. Under the rules of the tender, NFL was guaranteed the 136,300 mt offered by Ameropa for the East Coast and the 400,000 mt offered by OQ Trading for the West Coast.

NFL Urea Tender Awards
Offering Company Quantity (mt)
East Coast $349.88/mt CFR West Coast $340/mt CFR Total
Aditya Birla Group 100,000   100,000
AgriCommodities 49,500   49,500
Agrifields 40,000   40,000
Ameropa L1 – ECI 136,300   136,300
Coastal Chemical 90,000   90,000
FertiStream 80,000 40,000 120,000
Midgulf International 45,000   45,000
OQ Trading L1 – WCI 400,000 400,000
Sabic 50,000   50,000
Samsung 45,000   45,000
Sun International 95,000   95,000
Total 730,800 440,000 1,170,800

The preference for East Coast deliveries came not only from NFL desiring the urea to be delivered to ports closer to where the urea is needed, but also because there are greater opportunities for the vessels to return with cargo loaded from India.

The awards are the largest issued so far this year. The total amount of urea purchased under tenders during 2024 will come to 2.6 million mt when the last of the cargoes from the NFL tender arrives, below the 3.9 million mt received under tenders issued through September 2023.

The lower take this year fits both with the India’s general decline in tender-related imports witnessed in recent years, and a stated desire from the Indian government to reduce overall imports. Urea imports totaled 2.3 million mt through the first half of 2024, Trade Data Monitor reported, a roughly 20% decline from the 2.9 million mt received during the same period of 2023.

Year Tender Imports (Million mt)* Total Imports (Million mt)**
2023 5.6 8.6
2022 7.5 10.1
2021 7.9 8.1
2020 8.9 11.2
2019 5.6 11.2

*Green Markets tally of tenders
** Trade Data Monitor

The Indian government has been offering incentives to increase domestic urea production. In addition, it has begun promoting a new product, liquid nano urea – also domestically produced –designed to reduce the amount of traditional urea needed without hindering agricultural output.

This latest tender was priced $10-$15/mt below the previous tender. The purchase of slightly more than 1 million mt, along with current urea reserves reported at just under 7 million mt, will ensure that enough product is available for the coming application season, sources said. More tons will still be needed, said traders, but how much more will be determined by the weather. So far, the situation looks as if there will only be a mild increase in demand.

The large take in the tender prompted some knee-jerk reactions in global urea pricing, said one source. Offers into Brazil jumped to $360/mt CFR, the NOLA price moved up to $316/mt, and Egyptian producers were able to command higher prices in sales made directly after the release of the Indian numbers.

Even with India taking 1.17 million mt, however, sources said there remains a surplus of urea in the market, and that no other large buyer is willing to sop up the excess tonnage at higher prices.

Black Sea:     

The price range for prilled urea in the Black Sea widened downward this week. Sources now put the price at $295-$305/mt FOB.

January-July urea imports to Turkey totaled 1.9 million mt, Trade Data Monitor reported, a 17% decline from the year-ago 2.5 million mt. Oman sent 1 million mt, followed by Egypt with 609,000 mt. July imports were noted at 217,000 mt, down 21% from the 276,000 mt received in July 2023.

The Turkish government reported receiving just 5,000 mt of Iranian urea in January-July, according to Trade Data Monitor. However, Iran reported sending 1.6 million mt to Turkey during the same period. Sources said the discrepancy could stem from Iranian product being sent to a third country ahead of a final shipment to Turkey. As a result, the urea could be reported as coming from a country other than Iran.

Mediterranean:

There has been limited urea activity in the Mediterranean on the CFR side, with French and Italian buyers still firmly out of the market.

Some downward pressure is being felt, however, with one deal suggested at $360/mt CFR and the latest prices ex-Egypt rumored at $340-$347/mt FOB, suggesting lower replacement values. In adjacent Romania, offers as low as $350/mt CFR were reported. As a result, granular urea in the Mediterranean slipped to $360-$375/mt CFR, down from last week’s $370-$375/mt CFR.

Southeast Asia:

Improved availability, including the expectation that Pupuk Indonesia will soon tender for granular urea pending the receipt of export licenses, resulted in indications slipping to $330/mt FOB. Theoretical netbacks from the India tender suggest Southeast Asia values around $320/mt FOB.

With no other spot sales were reported, granular urea in Southeast Asia was quoted at $330-$366/mt FOB, reflecting current indications on the low end and the last-done business by Pupuk on the high end.

Indonesia:     

Indonesian urea producers have been quiet. Sources reported no rumors of pending selling tenders during the week.

Reports of sales in the region show prices significantly softer than the $366/mt FOB last achieved in an Indonesian tender. Sources estimated netbacks from the NFL/India tender to Southeast Asian suppliers in the low-$330s/mt FOB. Sources have also been reporting deals around $335/mt FOB from other producers in the area.

January-July urea exports totaled 1 million mt, Trade Data Monitor reported, a 54% increase from the year-ago 653,000 mt. Australia took 484,000 mt, followed by the Philippines with 173,000 mt. July exports were 179,000 mt, a sharp increase from the 11,000 mt shipped in July 2023.

Thailand:      

January-July urea imports totaled 1.9 million mt, according to Trade Data Monitor, a 30% increase from the 1.4 million mt received through the first seven months of 2023, with Saudi Arabia sending 818,000 mt.

July 2024 imports were reported at a near-record 445,000 mt, a sizeable increase on the 193,000 mt received in July 2023. Sources said the large purchases made so far this year – especially in July – have built urea reserves to a high level.

The purchases were justified by earlier weather reports that appeared to warrant the extra tonnage, said one trader. However, hard and steady rains now seem to have delayed the application season. Sources now expect Thailand to step back from the spot market and only accept contracted tons through the rest of the year.

Middle East: 

The netback from the Indian tender to sellers in the Arab Gulf was noted at $325-$330/mt FOB, a level many traders were discussing prior to the tender’s closing, and also about $5-$10/mt below where producers argued the price should be. One trader described the direct PIC offer into the Indian tender at $362/mt FOB as well above any level discussed leading into the tender. The offer was also a signal from PIC indicating that producers would not tolerate a dramatic slide in prices, the trader said.

The bulk of the 1.17 million mt awarded by NFL is expected to come from the Middle East. With an Oct. 31 shipping deadline, sources said the existing product in producer warehouses can be loaded for a first wave of deliveries. By the last half of October, production will have replenished many of the tons shipped earlier, allowing for a second wave of shipments.

The sales to India will tighten the Arab Gulf spot market. This could affect both the price and availability of product for the upcoming Ethiopian tender. However, Ethiopia has begun drawing more tons from Egypt and Nigeria in the past couple of years. These shipments have less distance to travel, and producers largely prefer to sell through contracts rather than competitive spot deals such as the Indian tender, with Ethiopia being the exception.

Urea exports from Iran totaled 3.3 million mt in January-July, Trade Data Monitor reported, a 29% increase from the year-ago 2.6 million mt. Turkey purchased 1.6 million mt and Brazil took 625,000 mt, while major urea producer Oman bought 374,000 mt. The material sent to Oman was most likely re-exported, sources said, giving the final buyers some cover against the purchase of Iranian material. July exports were reported at 532,000 mt, up slightly from the 513,000 mt shipped in July 2023.

Egyptian producers MOPCO and NCIC sold cargoes shortly after the close of the Indian tender to begin moving prices up. MOPCO sold 6,000 mt to a European buyer at $347/mt FOB, while NCIC matched that price for 5,000 mt, also bound for Europe. The deals moved up the posted price for Egyptian granular urea by $2/mt.

As the week closed, MOPCO announced additional sales of 5,000 mt and 6,000 mt at $350/mt FOB and $351/mt FOB, respectively. Both deals were for late September loading to buyers in Europe.

Egyptian product is also expected to play a role in the upcoming Ethiopia tender. Egypt’s contributions to Ethiopia’s import tenders have increased steadily in the past five years, according to Trade Data Monitor, rising from 46,000 mt in 2019 to 506,000 mt in 2023. Egypt’s January-August exports to Ethiopia accounted for 310,000 mt out of a total 509,000 mt imported during the period.

Ethiopia:       

The Ethiopian Agricultural Bank Corp. called a tender for 250,000 mt of granular urea to close on Sept. 17. The tender calls for five lots of urea to be received from second-half September through mid-November. The tender is expected to tighten the market east of the Suez Canal, sources said.

July-August urea imports totaled 509,000 mt, Trade Data Monitor reported,off 9% from the year-ago 557,000 mt. August is usually a slow month for imports and showed just 6,450 mt received, down from the atypical 159,000 mt reported in August 2023.

China:

Sources continue to believe that urea exports from China will be restricted through the rest of the year. The price at factories has reportedly been softening, with more prilled urea now reported falling closer to the estimated export price of $290/mt FOB than in previous weeks. At the same time, production rates at many plants were said to have stepped higher.

Brazil:

Granular urea prices firmed to $355-$360/mt CFR in Brazil following the release of prices in the India tender, up $15/mt from last week’s $340-$345/mt CFR range. Previous offers in the $340s/mt FOB dried up after most sellers withdrew from the market, while others revised offers to $370/mt CFR.

Although the Indian tender was awarded below initial expectations, buying pressure eased at Brazilian ports this week, pushing inland offers to $480-$490/mt FOB Rondonópolis. Growers remain cautious about new purchases, however, preferring to await more favorable conditions and a clearer outlook in the market.

Argentina:

Sources reported an active Argentina market during the week, with negotiations noted in the $365-$375/mt CFR range.

January-July urea imports totaled 568,000 mt, according to Trade Data Monitor, an85% increase from the year-ago 308,000 mt. Algeria sent 179,000 mt, followed by Nigeria with 141,000 mt. July imports were pegged at 157,000 mt, up 16% from the 135,000 mt received one year earlier.