All posts by hlancey@bloomberg.net

Crops/Weather

California, Crops/Weather, Eastern Cornbelt, Market Watch, Pacific N.W., Western Canada, Western Cornbelt

Eastern Cornbelt:

US Drought Monitor

Thunderstorms rolled through northern Illinois at midweek, with spotty showers also reported across central Illinois. Hotter weather was on the way, however, with highs in Illinois expected to climb to the 90s for the balance of the week.

After strong thunderstorms pounded central Indiana over the prior weekend, heat and humidity returned to the state during the first days of July, with highs expected to hit the mid-80s and high humidity pushing readings into the 90s.

Thunderstorms also pushed through northern Ohio at midweek, with temperatures topping out in the 80s and additional rains expected for the balance of the week.

Good or excellent ratings were assigned to 65-66% of the corn and 63-64% of the soybeans in Illinois, Indiana, and Ohio on June 30. Michigan’s corn crop was rated as 73% good or excellent, while soybeans in those two categories totaled 59% of the acreage in the state.

Western Cornbelt:

Tornado warnings and watches were in effect for multiple counties in eastern Iowa on July 2, while torrential rain hit parts of central Iowa on that date, causing flooding in some locations. Rainfall totals included 5.5 inches in Indianola, 4.96 inches in Greenfield, and 3.82 inches in Pella.

The same system produced tornadoes and heavy rain in parts of western Nebraska as well, with reports of flooding in Lincoln at midweek. Missouri was bracing for high heat and potentially strong thunderstorms as the week progressed, with heat advisories in effect for southern areas of the state.

Crop conditions were favorable across the region, with 73-80% of the corn and 72-78% of the soybeans rated as good or excellent on June 30. Good or excellent ratings were also assigned to 60% of Missouri’s cotton and 79% of the state’s rice crop, while 84% of Nebraska’s sorghum crop was rated as good or excellent at the end of June.

California:

Excessive heat warnings were in effect across California during the week, with highs reaching 122 degrees in Death Valley on July 3. Northern California and the Central Valley were also sweltering, with highs in Sacramento expected to range from 105-115 degrees as the week progressed.

The heatwave contributed to a wildfire in Butte County that forced the evacuation of about 13,000 people in and around Oroville at midweek. The blaze, dubbed the Thompson Fire, grew to more than three square miles in one day with zero containment.

Pacific Northwest:

Corn Wheat Soybean Index

Oregon was bracing for sweltering temperatures over the coming weekend, prompting excessive heat warnings for multiple counties, with highs expected to reach 100-110 degrees on July 6-10. Heat warnings were also issued for western Washington, where weekend forecasts warned of temperatures in the 90s.

The heat wave was also expected to impact southern Idaho on July 6-10, with highs expected to reach the low triple digits, roughly 20 degrees above normal. Temperatures in Montana were expected to climb to the 80s, but much of the state enjoyed cool, rainy weather in the days leading up to July 4.

Crops in the region were generally described as favorable in early July. Good or excellent ratings were assigned to 73-84% of Idaho’s wheat and barley crops, compared with 67% in Oregon, 51-60% in Montana, and 48-55% in Washington.

Western Canada:

Cool, wet weather was reported across much of Western Canada during the first week of July as thunderstorm risks persisted across the region. Forecasts warned of potentially severe storms along the Saskatchewan and Manitoba border later in the week, including the threat of large hail and spotty downpours.

Crops were generally favorable in the region, though the weather has slowed development in some areas.

“Cooler temperatures continue to slow crop development,” the latest Saskatchewan Crop Report said. “Spring wheat and oilseed crops are still the furthest behind the normal stages of development for this time of year…(and) warmer temperatures are needed to help crop development progress.”

Transportation

Arkansas River, Illinois River, Market Watch, Mississippi RIver, Ohio River, Transportation, U.S. Gulf

US Gulf:

Port Allen Lock travel will be unavailable from July 30 to Aug. 3 and again on Aug. 12-15 for miter gate repair. The site was closed for nearly a month following a miter gate hinge anchorage failure on March 28. The Louisiana Highway 1 Bridge will be closed from 8 p.m. on July 20 through 4 a.m. on July 21.

Bayou Boeuf Lock repairs underway through approximately July 10 limited Monday-Friday travel between 7 a.m. and 6 p.m. Leland Bowman Lock returned from a round of daytime shutdowns on June 29.

Bayou Sorrel Lock guidewall repairs scheduled through Oct. 30 restricted travel between 7 a.m. and 4 p.m. Delays ran as high as 37 hours, according to Corps data, edging up from 35 hours at last report. Repairs at Brazos Lock are expected to continue into October, limiting weekday movements from 7 a.m. to 7 p.m. Delays topped out around the 10-hour mark during the week.

Work underway at the Houston-area’s San Jacinto River Bridge is projected to continue for another 1-2 months. Traffic is limited to single-width tows through the western side of the channel, while the channel’s eastern side is completely shut to navigation.

Port Allen Lock delays ran up to 11 hours during the week. With 21 tows counted in line to pass Industrial Lock on July 3, wait times were quoted up to 44 hours. Algiers Lock waits topped out around 12 hours at midweek.

Mississippi River:

High-water conditions persisted on the Upper Mississippi River during the week, leaving both the St. Paul and Savage, Minn., areas closed to navigation on July 3. If current river trends continue, travel could resume through both locations as soon as the weekend, sources speculated.

The National Weather Service gauge at St. Paul was posted at a major-flood 17.4 feet and falling on July 3, while the Savage gauge returned a moderate-flood 710.6-foot reading on the same date. Movement at St. Paul can resume when levels fall below the 14-foot mark, forecast to occur on July 6.

Additional high-water closures were noted at Locks 1, 3, 12, and 16-17 during the week. Lock 13 was projected to shut on July 4, while Locks 11, 14, 18, and 20 were also reportedly at risk of closure as excess water works its way downriver. Due to the shutdowns, Corps data showed limited movement at Locks 1-19 during the week.

Lock 21 is scheduled to close to daytime travel on Aug. 13, sources said. Old Hickory Lock on the Cumberland River will shut completely from July 8 to Aug. 1 for hydraulic line replacement. The lock was previously closed to daytime navigation on June 10-27.

Illinois River:

Loading drafts continued at a maximum 9.5 feet for Miles 1-231. Drafts fell to 9.0 feet above Mile 231.

Scheduled miter gate gear box repair operations will prompt four-hour shutdowns at Dresden Island Lock on July 9 and Brandon Road Lock on July 10, sources said. Travel will be unavailable from 8 a.m. to 12 p.m. on those dates.

Tows waited up to eight hours to transit Peoria Lock during the week. Corps data showed intermittent 4-7 hour delays at LaGrange Lock.

Ohio River:

Low water levels prompted ongoing draft reductions on the Ohio River. Sources noted maximum loading drafts in the 10-10.5 foot range, depending on location and direction of travel, roughly equal to 90-95% of normal capacity. Tow lengths were permitted up to 15 barges.

McAlpine Lock will close to vessels traveling in the downriver direction from 7 a.m. to 7 p.m. between July 8 and Nov. 30, with delays expected.

The Markland Lock primary chamber will go offline for 19 hours daily between July 8 and Aug. 2, and again from Aug. 12 through Sept. 6, forcing detours through the site’s secondary chamber.

The main chamber at Hannibal Lock is shut until Nov. 8 for miter gate repairs, resulting in delays up to 41 hours, down from 72 hours at last report. Corps data showed 11 vessels queued to lock on July 3. Machinery repairs at Racine Lock were slated to continue through July 11.

The primary chamber at John T. Myers Lock is expected close to navigation from Aug. 21 to Nov. 9. A similar shutdown in October 2023 produced four-day delays. Belleville Lock will see alternating 30-day main and auxiliary chamber shutdowns during the second half of the year.

On the Tennessee River, sporadic closures were scheduled for miter gate fender replacement between 6 a.m. and 6 p.m. through Aug. 1. A shutdown reported overnight on June 30-July 1 produced delays up to 11.5 hours.

Wilson Lock is slated to close to daytime travel on July 8-18. Intermittent delays were quoted up to 40 hours during the week.

Arkansas River:

Scheduled Van Buren Bridge repairs are set to begin on Aug. 16. The project will run for approximately 18 days, with vessels cleared to pass the site following the ninth day of work. The bridge is located at Mile 300.8 of the Arkansas River.

Gas Shortage Cuts Egyptian Urea Production Again

Egypt, Featured, Hydrogen, Natural Gas, NPK, Urea

The Egyptian government renewed its cutback of natural gas to fertilizer producers in late June, forcing most, if not all urea plants, to shut down. The government shifted its limited natural gas resources away from industrial use to accommodate power needs as extreme heat is causing increased power demand for residential air conditioning.

Sources told Green Markets that all the major urea producers had closed their plants by the middle of this week. Local media reports indicated some plants had shifted from natural gas to hydrogen for some of their operations. Some NPK producers are also reportedly tapping into their solar power reserves to maintain limited blending operations. Sources said they had no indications when the gas supplies would be restored.

The government issued a similar notice to urea producers at the end of May (GM June 7, p. 1). At that time, plants shut down, leaving a large gap in urea availability. Within a week of the May announcement, however, some producers reported a gradual return to normal gas levels.

Prices from granular sales moved up from $310/mt in late May to $340/mt FOB in mid-June because of the cutbacks. No new sales have been reported since mid-June. Producers were hoping to rebuild inventories in case demand stepped up. With the renewal of natural gas restrictions and the calling of a urea tender by India, speculators have moved the price to $375/mt FOB for July shipments, if any tons are available.

Mosaic Completes MicroEssentials Expansion in Florida

DAP/MAP, Featured, Florida, Nitrogen, Phosphate, Phosphorus, Sulfur

The Mosaic Co. reported in mid-June that the three-year, $35 million MicroEssentials capacity expansion at its Riverview MAP facility in Florida is now complete, boosting production capacity to 800,000 mt/y.

“Prior to completion of this project, total MicroEssentials production across our North America phosphate operations was 4.3 million tonnes per year,” said Kelly Strong, Vice President Operations, Phosphate. “With customer demand for MicroEssentials projected to increase to more than five million tonnes by 2026, we needed this additional production capacity to ensure we’re able to meet that demand.”

MicroEssentials is one of four specialty fertilizers produced by Mosaic. The product line consists of four formulations: S9, S10, S15, and SZ, with all formulations containing nitrogen, phosphorus, and sulfur, and the SZ formulation adding zinc. When the MicroEssentials capacity at Riverview is fully ramped up, Mosaic said more than half of its US phosphate production will be higher-margin, performance fertilizers.

“Growing our production capacity for MicroEssentials and other specialty products is important, not just to keep pace with growing demand but because it gives us options to stabilize and improve our results,” Kelly said. “We’re in a cyclical business and global demand is influenced by external factors we can’t control, so having a diverse product portfolio and the operational flexibility we need to be able to adjust production helps us steer our own ship.”

MicroEssentials was developed and first produced at Mosaic’s Bartow facility in 2001. Increased customer demand led the company to expand production of various formulations at its Riverview facility in 2005, the Faustina facility in Louisiana in 2012, and the New Wales facility in Florida in 2015.