US Gulf:
NOLA urea was reported in a tight
range at $303-$308/st FOB
for loaded barges during the week, with the same range reported for limited
full-June and July business. This week’s market fell within last week’s
$290-$309/st FOB level.
Eastern Cornbelt:
Urea
was quoted at $355-$375/st FOB in the Eastern Cornbelt, with the low confirmed
out of spot Illinois and Ohio River terminals. The Cincinnati, Ohio, market was
steady at $365-$375/st FOB during the week. Michigan pricing included $390/st
FOB and $425-$430/st DEL in late June.
Western Cornbelt:
Urea in the Western Cornbelt remained at $335-$365/st
FOB, with the low reported at Port Neal, Iowa. The St. Louis, Mo., market was
unchanged at $345-$350/st FOB in late June.
Southern Plains:
Urea slipped to $355-$370/st FOB in
the Southern Plains, with the low reported at Catoosa/Inola, Okla., and the
high in Texas.
South Central:
Urea was unchanged at $340-$370/st
FOB terminals in the South Central region, with the low confirmed at Convent,
La., and the high in Arkansas. Pricing at Memphis, Tenn., and out of Kentucky
river terminals was reported at $355-$365/st FOB during the week.
Southeast:
Urea pricing in the Southeast remained at
$375-$380/st FOB port terminals in late June, with the low confirmed at
Wilmington, N.C., and the high at Chesapeake, Va.
India:
Indian
Potash Ltd. (IPL) called a urea tender this week to close July 8 with a
shipping deadline of Aug. 27.
While
many sources were expecting a tender to be called in late June or early July,
several players expressed surprise that the call came this week.
India
started the month with urea reserves at an unprecedented 11 million mt. At the
same time, prices were already fluctuating due to China’s export restrictions
and production shutdowns in Egypt. The added pressure from an Indian tender
could keep the market unsettled, said one trader.
In
stipulating a late-August shipping deadline, sources speculated that IPL might
have been counting on the availability of Chinese product, thereby adding
downward pressure to prices. However, even if the Chinese government allows
exports to begin in August, it now looks as though orders will be limited to
small lots of 10,000 mt or less, one trader noted.
At
the same time, urea reserves from the Arab Gulf have been greatly reduced
following a series of plant closures for routine maintenance. The tons that
remain available are being used to cover existing contracts or to engage in
swap deals to help other producers cover their contracts, sources reported. The
steady sale of urea to existing buyers could leave limited tonnage for the
Indian tender, said one trader.
Traders
initially speculated that IPL will set a top buying target of 1 million mt. As
the week progressed, however, more sources voiced expectations of a purchase
below 1 million mt, with one trader predicting a take of only 500,000 mt.
Black
Sea:
Prilled
urea edged up to $305-$310/mt FOB in the Black Sea following reports of a
production shutdown in Egypt and a tender call from India.
Mediterranean:
Despite the prolonged Egyptian outages, European
buyers in the Mediterranean continue to resist urea values above $380/mt CFR.
The latest reports of FCA business done in France and Spain reflected
approximately $375-$380/mt CFR, resulting in an unchanged range for the week.
Prices are likely to remain sticky as much of the region heads into the
offseason.
Southeast Asia:
Southeast Asia granular
urea prices edged up to $312-$350/mt FOB, with the high reflecting indications
and theoretical netbacks from nearby CFR markets and the low matching the last
Indonesian tender award.
Though no FOB granular urea
sales were reported this week, some regional players expect Indonesia to tender
some tons in the context of the fresh IPL India tender announced on June 24.
Indonesia:
Pupuk
continues to struggle with shipping the 280,000 mt of granular urea it sold
earlier this month, sources said. The parent company of Indonesia’s urea
producers has faced grim weather conditions at ports, preventing ships from
loading. At the same time, there are reports that securing vessels for
transport has become increasingly difficult.
The
attacks on vessels exiting the Suez Canal for Asia have left the Asian shipping
market in a state of uncertainty, sources reported There are now rumors that
some cargoes may not be fully loaded until late July.
Traders
said Pupuk will most likely abstain from calling another selling tender until
the last of the cargoes has been nominated to a vessel, potentially pushing the
next tender call into late July or early August.
Despite
the lack of new business, industry players are talking about potential prices.
Indications were noted in the $340s/mt FOB during the week, a significant jump
from the last confirmed sale at $312/mt FOB.
Middle
East:
Offers
for Middle East tons remained in the $350s/mt FOB against firm bids in the
$340s/mt FOB. The distance between the two sides prevented players from nailing
down new sales during the week.
Industry
sources speculated that Arab Gulf urea will dominate the Indian tender set to
close on July 8. However, urea reserves in the region are not very high, some
traders noted.
When
producers took routine maintenance turnarounds in June, they used their
reserves to cover contracts or engaged in swap deals with other producers. Now
that production is ramping back to normal, contracts still have to be fulfilled
and swaps have to be repaid, sources said, leaving fewer tons available to
offer into the tender than the buyer may have anticipated.
Urea
production in Egypt has essentially shut down once again, sources reported.
Earlier this week the government reinstated its limits on natural gas supplied
for industrial use. The government said the gas was needed to power residential
air conditioning during the current heat wave.
The
gas restrictions and subsequent shutdowns in the urea industry lit a fire under
export prices. Despite a lack of concluded business, pricing discussions jumped
dramatically, players said.
The
week opened with sources quoting the paper market at $365/mt FOB for July
shipment, up from the last confirmed sale at $340/mt FOB. By midweek, following
the Indian tender announcement and the news that most Egyptian urea production
would cease, the July paper price jumped to $375/mt FOB.
Egyptian
sources were unsure when the natural gas restrictions would be lifted and
production could resume.
China:
Restrictions
on urea exports remained in place in China, leaving sources to describe price
discussions for potential exports as an ongoing academic exercise. The
discussions showed prilled and granular urea at parity in the $340-$350/mt FOB
range during the week.
Some
regional buyers continue to maintain hope that exports could be allowed by
mid-July. Once exports are allowed to resume, sources expect the lots to ship
in containers and measure less that 10,000 mt, a size and mode of transport
favorable to Southeast Asian buyers.
If
the export restrictions are lifted in time, some speculated that Chinese
product might play a part in the Indian tender. A number of traders dismissed
that idea, however.
Even
if the restrictions are lifted in early July, sources said preference will most
likely be given to the smaller lots preferred by regional buyers over the large
quantities needed to compete in India. One trader noted that export approval
relies on the ability to maintain large and cheap reserves for the domestic
market. It is easier, he said, to regulate the impact of small shipments on the
domestic market than the larger, bulk lots.
Brazil:
Brazil
granular urea prices softened $5/mt, to $355-$365/mt CFR from $360-$370/mt CFR
at last report. Interest was muted as buyers await the results of the Indian
tender, while the weakening Brazilian Real and falling corn prices also
impacted the market.
The
return of gas supply cuts in Egypt and the continued lack of Chinese exports also
contributed to high volatility during the week
Rondonópolis
trading softened to $480-$500/mt FOB, off from $500-$530/mt FOB in the prior
report. While sources noted a handful of negotiations at $510/mt FOB, most
product was offered toward the lower end of the range.
Domestic
negotiations were affected by lower international market prices this week,
while the prospect of reduced import volumes at India – a product of high
existing inventories in the country – contributed to the price decline.
Additionally, demand was slow as buyers focused on grain sales and the harvest.
Argentina:
January-May
urea imports to Argentina totaled 280,000 mt, Trade Data Monitor
reported, a significant increase from the year-ago 95,000 mt. Nigeria sent
86,000 mt, Algeria shipped 71,000 mt, and Bolivia added 38,000 mt. May imports
were 41,000 mt, down about one-third from the 61,000 mt received in May 2023.