US Gulf:
NOLA urea business during the
week was reported at $290-$302/st FOB for prompt loaded barges, $290-$295/st
FOB for June, and $290-$300/st FOB for July. Those levels were up from last
week’s $284-$291/st FOB range, fueled by firming international prices in the
wake of production curtailments in Egypt.
Eastern Cornbelt:
Urea
inched up to $365-$380/st FOB in the Eastern Cornbelt, up $5/st from last week
on slightly stronger NOLA barge pricing. The low was confirmed on the Ohio
River, while Illinois River terminals bumped up to a low of $370/st FOB for
June-July tons. The Cincinnati, Ohio, market remained at $365-$375/st FOB in
early June.
Western Cornbelt:
Urea in the Western Cornbelt fell to $345-$375/st FOB
in early June, down slightly from last week, with the high confirmed in Iowa on
a spot basis. The St. Louis, Mo., urea market slipped to $345-$350/st FOB, down
from $350-$360/st FOB, while the latest offers at Caruthersville, Mo., were
reported at the $355/st FOB level.
Southern Plains:
Urea prices fell to $360-$385/st FOB
in the Southern Plains, down $10-$15/st from last report, The Catoosa/Inola,
Okla., market was pegged at the $360-$365/st FOB level for prompt tons, down
from $375-$380/st FOB last week.
South Central:
Urea was quoted at $335-$370/st FOB
terminals in the South Central region, with the low reported at Convent, La.,
and the high out of river terminals in Arkansas. The Memphis, Tenn., urea
market was pegged at the $350-$365/st FOB level during the week.
Southeast:
Urea pricing in the Southeast dropped to $375-$380/st
FOB port terminals in early June, down from $390-$400/st FOB, with the low
confirmed at Wilmington, N.C.
India:
Sources
expect a new urea tender to be issued before the end of June. In a departure
from previous tenders, however, buyers will most likely take just enough
product to maintain India’s already high reserves of urea. Additional tenders
will probably be called as well, also with buyers taking less than 1 million
mt.
June
reserves were reported at a near-record 11 million mt. The high inventories,
combined with pressure to increase domestic production, would allow the country
to buy fewer foreign tons through the remainder of the year. The continued
promotion of India’s domestically-produced Nano Urea could also reduce demand
for imported product, sources said.
Black
Sea:
Black
Sea prilled urea moved up in line with other major urea-producing markets, to
$265-$270/mt FOB.
Turkey’s
Gübretaş is reportedly in the market for 20,000 mt of granular urea. Turkey’s
import numbers, as reported by Trade Data Monitor, have shown a steady
dependency on Oman and Egypt for granular product.
Turkey
imported approximately 1.3 million mt of urea in January-April, statistically
unchanged from January-April 2023. Oman led suppliers with 722,000 mt for 56%
of the imports, followed by 396,000 mt from Egypt. April imports stood at
226,000 mt, a 48% decline from the 434,000 mt received in April 2023.
Mediterranean:
Some urea buyers in the Mediterranean region were
heard rejecting offers of $350/mt CFR, with French buyers reportedly willing to
step in at lower levels of $330-$340/mt CFR. Italian buyers are not looking at
offshore tons for restocking, as wet weather has resulted in some delays.
Granular urea in the Mediterranean strengthened this week to $330-$350/mt CFR.
It remains unclear whether the market will be swayed
by news of further gas curtailments in Egypt, with multiple producers shut down
at the start of the week but reports of gas supply resuming later in the week.
Southeast
Asia:
No further
granular urea business was reported in Southeast Asia this week, but the
producer in Brunei was heard offering $320/mt FOB, pushing the regional market
up to $312-$320/mt FOB. Petronas in Malaysia resumed operations at its Gurun
and Bintulu plants, which had been in turnaround in May.
Indonesia:
Pupuk
has reportedly sold another cargo through its $312/mt FOB May granular urea
tender, lifting total sales to 280,000 mt.
The
company appears to have oversold its product, however. While the initial tender
called for loading in June, some of the shipments will take place in July,
sources said, with about half of the tonnage sold expected to go to Australia.
Because
of the delayed shipping dates, sources now estimate that Pupuk will not call
another granular selling tender until late July. Pupuk will most likely also
wait to call another granular tender until vessels have been fixed for all of
the material awarded in its most recent tender, one source added.
A
prilled urea tender closed this week, with Samsung winning the 8,000 mt award
at $323/mt FOB. The award translates to an estimate granular price of
$328-$333/mt FOB, though granular prices are expected to push even higher once
a new tender is called.
Middle
East:
Sources
reported a granular sale out of Saudi Arabia at $330/mt FOB. The transaction
represents a $15/mt increase from the most recent spot deal, and tracks about
$10/mt above where traders had previously called the market. The price increase
reportedly came on the heels of Egypt’s curtailed production due to natural gas
cutbacks.
Following
the transaction, July offers firmed to $335/mt FOB for granular urea and into
the mid-$320s/mt FOB for prilled.
Prices
in Egypt moved up dramatically on the heels of the government-imposed cutback
in natural gas supplies. The week kicked off with small-lot sales in the
upper-$330s/mt FOB, and sales were reported up to $350/mt FOB by June 7.
Prices
moved up $10/mt at the week’s outset, to $335-$340/mt FOB, on small-lot sales
from Kima and NCIC, after which offers immediately firmed to $340-$345/mt FOB.
Kima then closed a 5,000 mt sale at $350/mt FOB on June 7, followed by a 10,000
mt deal from NCIC at the same price.
The
government-imposed cut to natural gas supplied to urea producers, announced
late last month, led to price increases from Egypt to the Arab Gulf. The
government announced that plants would begin receiving their normal allotment
of natural gas beginning on June 6. Some producers late in the week
acknowledged receiving notices that the gas restrictions had been lifted, but
had not yet received confirmation that the gas was on its way to them.
The
restriction on gas supplies initially triggered production cutbacks that failed
to impact either prices or exports, and producers have experienced similar
reductions in gas supplies in the past. While the urea sales made in late May
could have easily been covered by producers’ existing inventories, sources
reported a subsequent uptick in demand. At the same time, some producers did
more than simply reduce production.
MOPCO
initially closed one granular line for a weeklong maintenance shutdown. By
early this week, however, the company’s other granular line and a prilled urea
line were halted as well. Alexfert, Kima, NCIC, and Abu Qir also shut their
production operations rather than reduce output. The unexpected loss of supply
has helped push prices higher, players said.
China:
Permission to export urea from China continues to be
denied. Sources now expect the first cargoes to be released sometime in late
July.
The government remains concerned that prices are too
high. Based on the current domestic price, export values have risen to an
estimated $340-$345/mt FOB for prilled urea and $348-$350/mt FOB for granular,
representing a $5-$10/mt increase. Conversely, the government wants to see
prices fall by at least $20/mt, sources said.
In recent years, prices in the Arab Gulf and China
have typically maintained a $0-$5/mt spread. Chinese product is currently
valued significantly above the most recent Arab Gulf price of $330/mt FOB,
however. Prices from China are also considerably higher than those reported out
of Indonesia.
The government’s export restrictions were designed to
build large reserves in the domestic market, forcing prices down and placating
growers. After the government gave up subsidy plans for Chinese farmers, these
export controls are the only remaining mechanism the central government has at
its disposal to impact prices, one trader argued.
Producers have been required to reduce production to
60% of rated capacity, one trader said. If factories were to increase output to
even 80% of nameplate value, said the trader, local reserves would build and
the price would move in a direction more to the government’s liking.
Ethiopia:
January-May urea imports firmed 49% year-over-year, Trade
Data Monitor reported, to 298,000 mt from 200,000 mt, with 203,000 mt from
Egypt accounting for 68% of the import market. May imports of 22,000 mt were
off 57% from the 50,000 mt received in May 2023, with all of the tonnage
loading from Oman.
Brazil:
The
Brazil granular urea market firmed to $340-$350/mt CFR during the week, a
$15-$20/mt increase from the prior $325-$330/mt CFR and up 14% in the last four
weeks, with the latest offers reported as high as $365/mt CFR. The firmer
values followed news of reduced urea production in Egypt and higher nitrogen
prices out of Europe.
Rondonópolis pricing held steady at $465-$485/mt FOB.
With several players describing a volatile market, new offers were quoted up to
$490/mt FOB.
Correction:
In the May 10
edition of Green Markets, US urea imports for March 2024 and July
2023-March 2024 were incorrectly reported at 64,837 st and 640,122 st,
respectively. The correct totals are 689,429 st for March and 3.47 million st
for July-March, up 11% and 7.4%, respectively, from 618,880 st in March 2023
and 3.23 million st in July 2022-March 2023.