All posts by hlancey@bloomberg.net

Ammonium Thiosulfate

Amthio, Eastern Cornbelt, Market Watch, South Central, Southern Plains, Western Cornbelt

Eastern Cornbelt:

The ammonium thiosulfate market was steady at $285-$300/st FOB in the Eastern Cornbelt, with the low at Cincinnati and the high confirmed in Indiana.

Western Cornbelt:

Ammonium thiosulfate remained at $280-$300/st FOB in the Western Cornbelt, depending on location, with the low reported at Waterloo, Iowa.

Southern Plains:

Ammonium thiosulfate prices were quoted at $235-$240/st FOB for the latest prompt offers in the Southern Plains, down $10/st from last report.

South Central:

Ammonium thiosulfate was pegged at $295-$300/st FOB Memphis in early June, up from $280-$285/st FOB at last report.

CAN

CAN, Germany, Market Watch

Germany:

CAN prices in Germany were flat at €265-€280/mt CIF this week, with most producers reportedly following Yara’s lead on pricing following its most recent €280/mt CIF list price issued last week. Volumes were heard transacting at lower levels as well, however, with some players wary that an abrupt price hike may deter some restocking demand.

Crops/Weather

Crops/Weather, Eastern Cornbelt, Market Watch, South Central, Southeast, Southern Plains, Western Cornbelt

Eastern Cornbelt:

US Drought Monitor

The week began with scattered showers across much of Illinois and Indiana, but conditions dried out for the balance of the week, allowing planting and sidedress activities to continue. Strong storms ripped through Ohio and Michigan on June 5, spawning tornadoes in both states and unleashing heavy rain.

Planting continued to track ahead of the five-year average in the region. Corn planting as of June 2 was 89% complete in Illinois, 90% in Ohio, and 87% in Indiana, while soybean planting had progressed to 81% complete in Illinois and Indiana and 79% in Ohio.

Western Cornbelt:

Another band of heavy rain moved through central Iowa during the week, with reports of 2.25 inches falling in Des Moines, 3.2 inches in Waukee, and more than four inches in Grimes and Algona. The storm also packed large hail in some locations.

Forecasts warned of potentially strong storms pushing through southern Nebraska late in the week, with scattered showers and thunderstorms also reported across central Missouri.

Corn planting as of June 2 had progressed to 93-96% complete in the Western Cornbelt, with soybean planting estimated at 90% complete in Nebraska, 84% in Iowa, and 68% in Missouri. Missouri growers also had 99% of the cotton planted by June 2, with sorghum planting estimated at 52% complete in Nebraska.

Southern Plains:

Corn Wheat Soybean Index

Strong thunderstorms pushed through eastern Kansas at midweek, producing hail and damaging winds in some locations. Earlier in the week, parts of southwestern Kansas were also hit with strong winds, causing widespread power outages as 60-70 mph gusts brought down trees and power lines.

Severe weather brought heavy rain and flooding to parts of Oklahoma late on June 4, with another round of storms taking aim at northwestern areas of the state on June 6. Central and southern Texas experienced record-breaking heat and humidity during the week, with nearly two dozen daily heat records set across the state on June 5.

Corn planting as of June 2 had progressed to 86% complete in Kansas and 92-95% in Oklahoma and Texas, with 67% of the Kansas soybean crop seeded by that date. Cotton planting was estimated at 84% complete in Kansas, 62% in Texas, and 48% in Oklahoma, while sorghum planting had progressed to 84% complete in Texas, 47% in Oklahoma, and 32-35% in Kansas and Colorado.

South Central:

Spotty thunderstorms moved through Middle Tennessee and parts of Kentucky during the week, while stronger storms hit Louisiana and Mississippi on June 4, causing widespread power outages and structural damage due to high winds and possible tornadoes.

Planting was advancing rapidly in the region. Corn planting was estimated at 79% complete in Kentucky and 93% in Tennessee by June 2. Soybean planting was 94% complete in Mississippi, 92% in Arkansas, 90% in Louisiana, 68% in Tennessee, and 63% in Kentucky, while cotton planting had progressed to 93% complete in Arkansas, 90% in Louisiana and Mississippi, and 83% in Tennessee.

Southeast:

High heat and humidity sparked several thunderstorms across the Southeast in early June, including a potential tornado in northern Virginia on June 5. Forecasts warned of heavy rain and strong thunderstorms in northern Georgia on June 6.

North Carolina growers had 100% of the corn and 69% of the soybeans planted by June 2, while cotton planting had progressed to 77% complete in Georgia, 83% in South Carolina, 87% in Alabama, 88% in North Carolina, and 92% in Virginia. Peanut planting as of June 2 was estimated at 79-98% complete in the Southeast.

Transportation

Arkansas River, Illinois River, Market Watch, Mississippi RIver, Ohio River, Transportation, U.S. Gulf

US Gulf:

An equipment malfunction prevented the West Canal’s Belle Chasse Bridge from opening on June 5-7, forcing tows to detour through Harvey Lock. Repairs were expected to conclude on June 7, while Harvey Lock delays were posted in the 9-15 hour range on June 6.

The start of Bayou Boeuf Lock repairs scheduled through approximately July 3 was pushed back to June 10 from late May. The effort is expected to block weekday travel from 7 a.m. to 6 p.m. Additionally, the lock will shut completely from 7 a.m. on June 11 through 6 p.m. on June 14, and during similar hours on June 18-21.

Brazos Lock repairs underway through October blocked weekday travel from 7 a.m. to 7 p.m., triggering waits in a wide 5-47 hour range during the week. Guidewall repairs at Bayou Sorrel Lock, at Mile 37 of the Port Allen Route, are expected to continue through Oct. 30, restricting weekday movements from 7 a.m. to 4 p.m. Corps data showed delays up to 29 hours on June 6.

Repairs in progress at the Houston-area’s San Jacinto River Bridge are anticipated to continue into July or August. Traffic is limited to singlewide tows through the western side of the channel, and the channel’s eastern side is completely closed to travel.

Port Allen Lock delays topped out around the seven-hour mark during the week, while tows waited 2-4 days to transit Industrial Lock. Intermittent 4-8 hour waits were reported at Algiers Lock, while tows were delayed up to 12 hours at Colorado Lock.

Mississippi River:

High water levels at Savage, Minn., forced a complete halt to navigation between Savage and the St. Paul, Minn., area during the week, sources said. The gauge at Savage put depths at a minor-flood 703.1 feet on June 6. Levels were projected to remain at flood stage through at least June 13.

Northbound loading drafts were capped at 11.5 feet through the St. Louis area, sources said, though southbound drafts were permitted up to 12.5 feet.

High water levels persisted on the lower river, prompting towing restrictions based on vessel horsepower. Southbound tows were required to maintain a minimum of 240 horsepower per standard loaded barge, up to a maximum of 36 barges, or 550 horsepower per oversize barge.

Tows traveling upriver were required to hold a minimum speed of 3 mph through the bridges at Memphis and Vicksburg, Miss, sources noted. If unable to maintain speed, tows were required to either reduce tow sizes or utilize an assist tug.

The gauge at Vicksburg was observed at an action-stage 37.8 feet at midweek, with forecasts calling for levels to recede below the 35-foot action stage on June 15. The Baton Rouge, La., gauge returned an action-stage 31.5-foot reading on June 6. Levels were projected to fall below the region’s 30-foot action stage on June 18.

The Rock Island Railroad and Highway Drawbridge, located at Mile 482.9 of the upper river, will close to navigation on the morning of June 8 for the Quad Cities Heart Walk. Lock 8 is slated to close for approximately eight hours for miter gate repair in mid-June.

Lock 7 saw intermittent 6-16 hour delays during the week. Wait times ran up to seven hours at Lock 24.

Illinois River:

Loading drafts on the Illinois River continued at a maximum 10 feet in both the northbound and southbound directions below Mile 160, while draft limits were noted at 10 feet through Miles 160-231, increasing from the week-ago 9.5 feet. Drafts fell to nine feet above Mile 231, however.

Sporadic 3-9 hour delays were reported at Starved Rock Lock. Wickets were noted in the lowered position at Peoria Lock and LaGrange Lock, allowing non-locking navigation through both locations.

Ohio River:

Maximum drafts were noted in the 10-11 foot range on the Ohio River, depending on location and direction of travel, down from 10-11.5 feet at last report. Tow lengths were permitted up to 15 barges.

Repairs and maintenance were underway at Cannelton Lock and Markland Lock through June 7, with minimal delays reported. Markland Lock travel will be limited on June 10-28 for miter gate repairs, with long delays expected.

Repair operations kicked off at the Hannibal Lock main chamber on June 3, sources said, forcing detours through the auxiliary chamber for 18 hours daily starting from 6 a.m. Sources warned of periodic auxiliary chamber closures for concrete work lasting up to 12 hours apiece. Wait times at Hannibal were noted up to 12 hours during the week.

Machinery work at Racine Lock is slated to run June 1 through July 11. Sources predicted a handful of 12-hour closures in the weeks leading up to the project.

The John T. Myers Lock primary chamber is scheduled to close to navigation from Aug. 21 through Nov. 9. A similar closure in October 2023 resulted in four-day delays. The main and auxiliary chambers at Belleville Lock will shut for 30 days each during the second half of the year, though the final schedule has not yet been determined.

On the Tennessee River, Kentucky Lock delays were posted up to 22 hours at midweek. Wait times at Wilson Lock were recorded in a wide 5-43 hour range.

Arkansas River:

Repairs to the Van Buren Bridge are set to begin on Aug. 16. The project will run for approximately 18 days, with vessels cleared to pass the site following the ninth day of work. The bridge is located at Mile 300.8 of the Arkansas River.

Ammonia

Ammonia, Eastern Cornbelt, Great Lakes, India, Market Watch, Middle East, Northern Plains, Northwestern Europe, Southeast Asia, Tampa, Thailand, U.S. Gulf, Western Cornbelt

US Gulf/Tampa:

The Tampa ammonia price for June was concluded at $400/mt CFR, down $50/mt from May’s $450/mt CFR and the lowest monthly contract price since September 2023’s $390/mt CFR.

The drop at Tampa pushed the Caribbean ammonia market down to $345/mt FOB and the NOLA barge market to an indicative $364/st FOB.

Eastern Cornbelt:

Ammonia prices continued to slip in the region as spring demand shifts to sidedress applications. Most terminals were reported in the $560-$575/st FOB range in the Eastern Cornbelt, down from last week’s $575-$590/st FOB.

Western Cornbelt:

Ammonia prices dropped to $560-$580/st FOB in the Western Cornbelt, depending on location, down from $575-$590/st FOB last week.

Northern Plains:

Ammonia prices fell sharply in the Northern Plains as spring demand winds down. Sources reported the latest prompt offers at $520-$570/st FOB terminals and $600/st DEL, well below the prior $635-$650/st FOB and $650-$675/st DEL ranges.

Great Lakes:

Michigan sources reported prompt ammonia offers at $570-$575/st FOB terminals in northern Indiana and northwestern Ohio.

Northwest Europe:

Bullish factors for ammonia in Northwest Europe include natural gas prices that have risen to $10/MMBtu and several downstream nitrates producers who have issued higher prices. On the more bearish side, Tampa settled $50/mt lower at $400/mt CFR for June.

Contract deliveries continue to dominate the Northwest European ammonia market, which for now remains unchanged at $460-$470/mt CFR.

India: 

FACT has awarded its 12,000 mt ammonia tender to Sun International, the only company to participate, at $353/mt CFR. Sources speculated that the tonnage will be sourced from Iran.

Middle East: 

Sources described Middle East ammonia prices as steady, but ready to show some strength. A positive price factor for the market stems from the Ma’aden turnaround, scheduled into mid-June. The absence of Saudi ammonia from the market has reportedly inspired sellers to push harder for price increases.

Southeast Asia:

Ammonia pricing in Southeast Asia continues to be supported by thin availability. A deal concluding last week ex-Indonesia to Mitsui reportedly yielded a netback of around $400/mt FOB, bringing the regional range higher to $330-$400/mt FOB. A tender award in India at $353/mt CFR fell within this week’s range.

Thailand:      

January-April ammonia imports totaled 103,000 mt, according to Trade Data Monitor, off 21% from the year-ago 130,000 mt. Malaysia sent 43,000 mt and Australia added 31,000 mt. Thailand received 15,000 mt in April, down 57% from 34,000 mt in April 2023.

Urea

Black Sea, Brazil, China, Eastern Canada, Eastern Cornbelt, Great Lakes, India, Indonesia, Market Watch, Mediterranean, Middle East, Northeast, Northern Plains, Pakistan, Southeast Asia, Thailand, U.S. Gulf, Urea, Western Cornbelt

US Gulf:

The NOLA urea market was quoted at $284-$291/st FOB for loaded and full-May barges, down from last week’s $285-$295/st FOB as demand slows and the price premium for nearby tons begins to fade. While no June business was actually confirmed during the week, sources reported the market flat at $285-$290/st FOB for that shipping window.

Barge sales of upriver tons were reported at a high of $298/st FOB NOLA based on netbacks.

Eastern Cornbelt:

Urea dropped to $360-$375/st FOB in the Eastern Cornbelt, down from last week’s $370-$390/st FOB, with the low confirmed out of spot Illinois River terminals as the week progressed. The Cincinnati, Ohio, market was pegged at $365-$375/st FOB, below the last confirmed $375-$380/st FOB range.

Western Cornbelt:

Urea in the Western Cornbelt fell to $350-$375/st FOB during the week, down slightly from last week, with the high confirmed in Iowa on a spot basis. The St. Louis, Mo., urea market remained at $350-$360/st FOB, while the latest offers in the Southern Plains region included $375-$380/st FOB Catoosa/Inola, Okla.

Northern Plains:

The urea market remained under pressure in the Northern Plains, with the latest prompt prices reported at $355-$375/st FOB St. Paul, Minn., and $410-$460/st DEL, down from $370-$390/st FOB and $440-$460/st DEL last week. Sources quoted the lower end of the delivered range for unit train shipments in eastern North Dakota.

Great Lakes:

Urea was quoted at $395-$425/st FOB in the Great Lakes region, with the higher numbers reported out of Michigan terminals. Michigan sources also quoted delivered urea offers at the $408/st level in central areas of the state.

Northeast:

Urea pricing in the Northeast slipped to $380/st FOB Fairless Hills, Pa., and $380-$390/st FOB Baltimore, Md., and East Liverpool, Ohio, down from the prior $390-$430/st FOB range in the region.

Though the official opening of the shipping channel at the Port of Baltimore was reportedly pushed back to early June, sources said vessels were able to navigate a temporary channel after the Dali was towed back to port after being trapped under wreckage of the Francis Scott Key Bridge for 55 days.

Eastern Canada:

Urea was quoted in a broad range at C$595-$700/mt FOB in Eastern Canada, down C$25/mt at the low end of the range.

India: 

Traders continue to expect a new urea tender to be called around mid-June, after the end of voting in the national election and when the formation of the new government becomes clearer.

Few expect to see India buy a large amount of urea in the tender. The country’s domestic reserves are reported at near-record levels – around 11 million mt expected by June 1 – while domestic urea production likewise remains strong. This combination leaves little incentive for large tender purchases. The only major unknown is the weather. So far, sources said the government is expecting a slightly better-than-average monsoon season.

With polls showing Narendra Modi in the lead to return as prime minister, the current provisional budget, which reduced the funds available for urea subsidies, will most likely be made permanent.

It has long been a goal of Modi to reduce the subsidies paid for fertilizers. The government is now promoting the use of domestically produced urea and liquid Nano Urea to reduce payments for imported product.

Pakistan:       

Members of Pakistan’s parliament last week called for an end to natural gas subsidies for urea producers. The government this week agreed to the request, ending subsidized natural gas for the producers.

The move came after a government report showed that the savings from reduced natural gas prices were not passed on to farmers. Domestic producers told local media outlets that high prices for other inputs in the production process left price reductions impossible.

In an additional action, the government authorized the import of 200,000 mt of urea, to be handled by Trading Corp. of Pakistan (TCP). TCP will most likely purchase the tons via a government-to-government deal instead of a public tender.

If TCP were to call a tender, one trader said, few major trading houses would participate. Traders have long objected to the payment procedures TCP attaches to its tenders. Without the major houses involved, said one source, it would be difficult for TCP to secure the full tonnage at a reasonable price. The government-to-government deals TCP has secured in the past have quickly and quietly provided the needed urea at prices deemed acceptable to Pakistan’s treasury.

Black Sea:     

Black Sea prilled urea followed the marginal increases seen in other major markets. Source now put the price at $255-$265/mt FOB.

Mediterranean:

Spanish importers saw $350/mt CFR offers following the recent Egyptian rally, but it is unclear whether any transactions occurred at this level. Prices in nearby Romania moved higher as well, with confirmed sales at $335/mt CFR.

Indications of $320/mt CFR were still reported by some Italian and French importers early in the week, however. As a result, the granular urea market in the Mediterranean was quoted at $320-$350/mt CFR for the week.

Southeast Asia:

Urea sales of more than 100,000 mt were reported by Pupuk Kaltim at $312/mt FOB, the same price attained in its latest tender. With no other confirmed transactions in other regional export markets, the Southeast Asia granular urea price firmed to a solid $312/mt FOB, up from last week’s $290-$312/mt range.

Indonesia:     

After Pupuk closed its 45,000 mt granular tender to the Philippines’ Universal Harvester at $312.26/mt FOB, the company entered into talks with other traders for additional sales. Sources ultimately reported sales totaling 250,000 mt to Universal and three other traders, all for June shipment.

Liven, Koch, and Samsung were all reportedly able to buy cargoes of 30,000-45,000 mt at Universal’s price. The tons sold to Universal are expected to go to Philippine buyers, with the other tonnage reportedly destined for Australia and Latin America.

Sources reported the latest offer from Pupuk in the low-$320s/mt FOB at week’s end.

Thailand:      

Urea imports stood at 947,000 mt in January-April, Trade Data Monitor reported, a significant increase from the 602,000 mt received through the first four months of 2023. Saudi Arabia led suppliers with 392,000 mt, Qatar shipped 120,000 mt, and Malaysia added 118,000 mt. April imports were noted at 225,000 mt, above the 210,000 mt received in April 2023.

Middle East: 

Sources reported a sale of granular urea from PIC for shipment to Australia at $315/mt FOB. Producers last week pushed for $310/mt FOB following a prilled sale at $295/mt FOB and price increases in Egypt and Indonesia.

In addition to the PIC spot sale, sources said a number of contract cargoes are being loaded for delivery to Australia. The contract business has been profitable enough that producers have found little reason to chase after spot deals, said one trader.

The modest price increase showed a continued firming of the market, though several traders have raised concerns that the increases are not sustainable. Traders shared the view that the market was stable but not firm, noting that Australian demand is expected to slow in the short term. While interest from India and Brazil may increase in the coming months, the global supply of urea is expected to exceed demand, leaving producers with little support for further price increases.

Helwan, in Egypt, sold 3,000 mt of granular urea at $325/mt FOB at the end of last week. The deal came to light following a government order directing producers to reduce output by 20% as part of a plan to divert natural gas away from the urea industry.

The previous two weeks showed a significant shift in both prices and tonnage sold. By the end of last week, however, most producers were reportedly satisfied with completing the accounting for the newly closed deals and were ready to reassess their situations given the mandate to reduce output.

As this week opened, some producers had reportedly gotten word that their natural gas allotments would be restored, though others continue to wait for a similar communication. Even with the cutback, sources said the producers who made sales during the mid-month selling frenzy have enough product on hand to cover the deals.

China:

Urea prices remain too high for the government’s liking, players said. The estimated export price, based on the domestic ex-factory price, remained at $335-$338/mt for prills and $342-$345/mt FOB for granular.

Exports have been mostly limited to container-sized shipments to regional buyers, sources said. No major exports are expected until July.

Brazil:

Brazil granular urea prices firmed to $325-$330/mt CFR, up from the week-ago $320-$325/mt CFR, cementing a 4.8% increase from late April. While some sellers were noted offering as high as $340-$350/mt CFR during the week, buyers did not commit at those levels.

Rondonópolis prices moved up to $465-$485 FOB, a $5-$25/mt increase from the previous week. Forward pricing remains uncertain, with demand expected to peak in the late third quarter or early fourth quarter. That timeframe will also be important for India, adding additional demand to the 4Q global market.