US Gulf:

New NOLA urea barge business was reported at $305-$311/st FOB for prompt tons, $300-$305/st FOB for full April, and $287-$290/st FOB for first-half May. Bids down to $275/st FOB were reported for full May, though no actual business was confirmed at that level. The new trades fell within last week’s broad $280-$330/st FOB range.

Eastern Cornbelt:

Urea pricing was quoted at $410-$440/st FOB in the Eastern Cornbelt, reflecting a slight rebound from last week’s $405/st FOB low. While the high was reported out of inland warehouses, most Illinois River terminals were quoted in the $410-$415/st FOB range during the week, with the Cincinnati, Ohio, market unchanged at $425/st FOB.

Western Cornbelt:

Urea prices in the Western Cornbelt continued to drop on weakening NOLA barge business. The regional market was quoted at $380-$420/st FOB, down another $20/st from last week, with the high reported in Iowa. The St. Louis, Mo., urea market was pegged at $380-$410/st FOB during the week, down from $400-$415/st FOB.

Urea also fell in the Southern Plains, with the latest Catoosa/Inola, Okla., offers reported at $415-$420/st FOB, down from last week’s $445-$460/st FOB range. Urea at Enid, Okla., was also pegged at the $420/st FOB level during the week. In the South Central region, urea FOB Convent, La., was quoted at $370/st FOB, down from $430/st FOB.

Northern Plains:

Last week’s sharp drop in NOLA urea was pressuring the latest prices in the Northern Plains. New urea offers were quoted down to $400-$420/st FOB St. Paul, Minn., and $500-$520/st DEL during the week, below the prior $450-$460/st FOB and $540-$560/st DEL ranges. The low end of the St. Paul market was reported late in the week, with the higher numbers earlier.

Great Lakes:

Urea was reported at $450-$480/st FOB in the Great Lakes region for April-May offers, depending on location, with the high confirmed out of spot Michigan terminals. Delivered urea prices were lower, with reports of $443/st offers into central Michigan at mid-month.

Northeast:

The urea market in the Northeast slipped to $445-$450/st FOB Fairless Hills, Pa., down from the prior $450-$460/st FOB range. No current offers were reported at Baltimore, Md., while rail-DEL pricing in the New England region was pegged at the $460/st level for prompt tons.

Eastern Canada:

Urea slipped to a broad C$620-$725/mt FOB in Eastern Canada, with the low end of the range reflecting a C$20/mt drop from last report.

India: 

The India urea market went quiet following the surprise Rashtriya Chemicals and Fertilizers Ltd. (RCF) decision to purchase just 340,000 mt in its March tender. Sources expect India’s next urea tender to come in mid- to late-May.

Black Sea:

Prilled urea prices dropped to $245-$260/mt FOB, a $30/mt decline. The drop could easily be attributed to India’s decision to take only 340,000 mt in the RCF tender instead of the previously anticipated 720,000 mt. Much of the tonnage from the earlier, larger amount was expected to come from Russia.

Mediterranean:

Imported granular urea offers in Italy slipped to $340-$345/mt CFR for Egyptian material, but muted buyer interest is making it difficult to put a cargo together. Notional buyer interest was heard at $325/mt CFR, but the appetite is anemic at best, leaving the Mediterranean granular urea range at $325-$345/mt CFR for the week.

Offers in nearby Turkey were reportedly circulating at $300/mt CFR, but were for Iranian material and therefore outside of the reported range. Egyptian granular indications slipped to $300/mt FOB at midweek, but no sales were confirmed.

Indonesia:     

No new movement was reported in Indonesia’s prilled or granular urea markets. Sources expect a selling tender to be called soon.

Middle East: 

For most of the week, players discussed urea prices in the $300-$310/mt FOB range, below the prior $325-$335/mt FOB level that was based on the results of the RCF tender.

Sources attributed the decline to last week’s report that China would allow urea exports to resume sooner than expected. By the end of the week, however, a rumor that China may reinstitute export restrictions had moved pricing ideas higher.

No deals were concluded at either the lower levels from the beginning of the week or at higher prices reported later, sources said. The paper market is reportedly showing stronger prices for May shipments.

Egyptian producers remained quiet during the week. Sources previously said there were enough orders on the books that producers had no need to actively look for buyers.

China:

Expectations of a May restart to urea shipments from China were dashed when rumors began circulating midweek that exports could be limited. By the end of the week, the country’s National Development Reform Commission issued new guidance confirming that exports will not come as early or be as plentiful as previously hoped.

The new guidelines came soon after factories received notice that they could start processing requests for export on April 15. That move would have allowed shipments to begin as early as May 1 instead of the previously anticipated mid-May.

India’s decision to take only 340,000 mt of urea instead of more than double that amount led to more excess tons in the market than anticipated. Allowing Chinese product to enter the market earlier would have further swelled global reserves and kept prices low.

As Chinese producers moved to take advantage of the possibility of earlier exports, the domestic prilled urea price jumped from the low-$280s/mt ex-plant to the upper-$290s/mt in just one week, sources said, raising the estimated export price from $300-$305/mt to $315-$320/mt FOB.

The granular price continues to be seen in the $330s/mt FOB, based on estimates from the RCF tender. That price is above other Asian suppliers such as Indonesia, sources said, where the last granular price was estimated at $328/mt FOB.

At the same time, producers reportedly began designating tons for export at the expense of local distributors, leaving some areas with fewer-than-expected reserves.

The new guidelines for exports added an additional point of approval. Permission to export was initially required only at the plants. Now, according to reports, not only must clearance be issued at the plant, it must also be granted at the port. In addition to looking at domestic reserves, the process will also consider pricing. It appears as if permission will only be approved if the domestic price drops, sources said.

Even prior to the rumors of possible renewed export restrictions, sources said sellers were increasingly focused on small-lot sales to regional buyers. Few seemed inclined to risk booking a cargo of 35,000 mt or more only to find that delays in the processing of export paperwork could delay the shipment. As a result, most orders under discussion in the past week were for 10,000 mt or less to Southeast Asian buyers.

Without any new deals on hand – and the status of exports up in the air – sources described market players as back to square one, scratching their heads and unsure what to do next.

South Korea:

South Korea imported 263,000 mt of urea in the first quarter, according to Trade Data Monitor, a marginal decline from the 267,000 mt received through the first three months of 2023. Qatar supplied 89,000 mt, followed by Vietnam with 74,000 mt. March imports were counted at 25,000 mt, down 75% from the 112,000 mt received in March 2023.

China’s first-quarter restrictions on urea exports were evident in the data. South Korea imported just 14,000 mt of Chinese urea in January-March, off from the 102,000 mt received through the first three months of 2023.

Brazil:

The Brazil granular urea market firmed 4.9% at the top of the range, to $300-$320/mt CFR from last week’s $300-$305/mt CFR, reversing a five-week slide in prices. The market moved up as the week progressed. The top of the range was set by North African tons, while sub-$300/mt CFR offers from sanctioned origins were reported early in the week.

The Rondonópolis market shrugged off the rise in imports to hold steady at $460-$480/mt FOB. Expecting further price drops ahead, many inland buyers remain unwilling to compromise on prices, sources said, noting a lack of regional demand for the corn safrinha.