All posts by jlarareo@bloomberg.net

Crops/Weather

California, Crops/Weather, Eastern Cornbelt, Market Watch, Pacific N.W., Western Canada, Western Cornbelt

Eastern Cornbelt:

US Drought Monitor

The week began with cold temperatures across much of the Eastern Cornbelt, along with rain and snow in many areas. Temperatures fell to the 20s in central Illinois on Oct. 18, with highs struggling to reach the 50s.

Lake-effect snow blanketed parts of northern Indiana earlier in the week, with wind chills dropped to the mid-20s and low-30s across the state. A mix of rain and snow was also seen in northern Ohio on Oct. 18, and a freeze watch was in effect for inland counties of northeastern Ohio. Highs in the upper-40s were reported across northern Ohio as the week progressed.

Warmer weather was reported in Illinois as the week advanced, with highs reaching the 60s and 70s by Oct. 20-21. Forecasts warned of potentially heavy rain early next week, however.

The corn harvest had progressed to 47% complete in Illinois by Oct. 16, compared with 39% in Indiana and 24% in Ohio, while the regional soybean harvest was estimated at 51-57% complete by that date. Good or excellent ratings were assigned to 71-73% of the corn and soybeans in Illinois, 61-62% in Ohio, and 58% in Indiana.

Winter wheat planting was also well underway in the region, with progress estimated at 66% complete in Ohio, 47% in Indiana, and 39% in Illinois.

Western Cornbelt:

Record cold temperatures were seen in Iowa on Oct. 18, with lows falling to the mid- to upper-teens in northern areas of the state.

Corn Wheat Soybean Index

Highs across Nebraska fell to the upper-40s and low-50s early in the week, with lows dropping to the upper-teens and low-20s. Warmer temperatures returned as the week advanced, with highs reaching the 60s in Nebraska and Iowa on Oct. 20.

With drought conditions worsening in Nebraska and Missouri, the weekend forecast warned of increased fire danger from gusty winds.

The corn harvest as of Oct. 16 was ahead of the average pace at 67% complete in Missouri, 46% in Nebraska, and 38% in Iowa, with soybeans also tracking ahead of normal at 74-76% complete in Iowa and Nebraska, and 38% in Missouri. USDA placed 62-65% of Iowa’s corn and soybeans in the good or excellent categories at mid-month, compared with 50-51% in Missouri and 39-40% in Nebraska.

Missouri’s rice was 88% harvested by Oct. 16, along with 30% of the state’s cotton crop. Nebraska’s sorghum harvest had progressed to 34% complete by that date.

California:

Hot weather returned to Southern California at midweek after several days of cooler temperatures and scattered showers. Highs reach the mid-90s in some locations on Oct. 19.

Northern California, by contrast, was expecting cooler weather, gusty winds, and some scattered precipitation by the weekend, with snow expected at higher elevations on Oct. 22. Less than a half-inch of rain was likely in the valleys and foothills.

The cotton harvest as of Oct. 16 was 30% complete in California and 33% in Arizona, with good or excellent ratings assigned to 95-99% of the acreage in those two states. California’s rice harvest was 60% complete, and roughly 17% of the state’s winter wheat crop was planted by that date.

Pacific Northwest:

Above-normal temperatures remained in place over much of the Pacific Northwest, but much cooler weather was on tap for the coming weekend, along with some overdue precipitation.

Highs in the 70s were common across Idaho and Montana for most of the week. A cold front was in the weekend forecast, however, with highs in western Montana expected to top out in the mid-30s by Oct. 23. Along with the cold temperatures, rain and snow was expected across a wide swath of both states.

Rain was also in the weekend forecast for parts of Oregon and Washington, with up to an inch of precipitation expected in the Cascades. The moisture will help clear the air of thick smoke caused by both the Nakia Creek Fire and the Bolt Creek Fire in Washington.

Idaho growers had 43% of the sugar beets harvested by Oct. 16, compared with 37% in Montana, while the potato harvest had progressed to 85% complete in Idaho and Oregon and 77% in Washington. Winter wheat planting was estimated at 89% complete in Washington and Montana, 83% in Idaho, and 71% in Oregon.

“Harvest is wrapping up here in the Columbia Basin,” commented one Washington source at midweek. “Fall fertilizer has been very active in the Palouse area, although the dry weather has held back the Willamette Valley from a historically good fall fertilizer market.”

Western Canada:

Mild temperatures were reported across much of Manitoba and Saskatchewan during the week, marking a big change from the snow squalls that hit parts of the region on Oct. 12-13.

Alberta also enjoyed highs in the 20s C for most of the week, but much colder weather was expected by the coming weekend, with highs topping out in the low teens and snowfall hitting some areas. Rain was likely across British Columbia by the weekend, ending a stretch of summer-like heat.

With harvest mostly complete in Alberta, dryland yields were reportedly running about 6% above the 10-year average for the province as a whole. Saskatchewan’s fall harvest was virtually complete by mid-October, while harvest progress in Manitoba was reported at 90% complete, nearly caught up to the five-year average of 91%.

The fall fertilizer season was well underway, sources reported, although dry conditions limited application in some areas.

Transportation

Arkansas River, Illinois River, Market Watch, Mississippi RIver, Ohio River, Transportation, U.S. Gulf

US Gulf:

Harvey Lock navigation has remained unavailable since Oct. 2 due to low water levels on the lower Mississippi River. Algiers Lock was offered as an alternate route.

Bayou Sorrel Lock guidewall replacement efforts currently in progress were scheduled to continue through February 2023, necessitating intermittent travel shutdowns between 6:30 a.m. and 5:00 p.m., Monday through Friday. Normal transit hours were expected on Saturday and Sunday, although delays were seen as high as 17 hours on Oct. 15-16.

Colorado Lock repairs that began on July 28 were scheduled to end on Oct. 14, concluding a period of daily navigation shutdowns between 7:00 a.m. and 5:00 p.m. Intermittent 4-7 hour delays were observed on Oct. 15-16.

On the Atchafalaya River, commercial travel was completely unavailable through Little Island Pass, Middle Island Pass, and Riverside Pass due to exposed underwater pipelines in the channel.

Towing length and width limits at Algiers Lock continued to limit unassisted passes to four standard barges or two 30,000 mt tankers per pass. Tows traveling with an assist vessel were allowed longer strings, however. Delays up to seven hours were reported early in the week.

A construction project underway at Belle Chasse Bridge, located at Mile 3 of the West Canal, triggered sporadic navigation stoppages up to 12 hours during the week. Work at the site was anticipated to continue through the end of 2022.

Port Allen Lock delays were heard up to eight hours through Oct. 17.

Mississippi River:

Historic low water levels continued to impact commercial travel on the lower Mississippi River, with draft limits and reductions in the maximum number of barges allowed per tow remaining in place for the week.

Tows were restricted to a maximum 25 barges, down from 30-40 barges during normal operation, while drafts for solid cargoes were reduced to 9.0 feet for both northbound and southbound travel on Oct. 17. Tows with liquid cargoes were reduced to 8.5-foot drafts.

Altogether, per-vessel towing capacity was reduced by 25-50% or more in many cases. Individual docks were also setting limits on loading and unloading drafts, with some reduced to as little as seven feet of draft. Vessel groundings due to shoaling lengthened travel times as well, with sources reporting travel stoppages in the 12-48 hour range.

Dredging at Mile 681 concluded on Oct. 14. The dredge relocated to Miles 922-925 during the week, blocking travel completely at that location on Oct. 18.

The river gauge at Memphis, Tenn., returned a (-)10.66-foot reading on Oct. 19. The gauge at Vicksburg, Miss., remained below the area’s 5.0-foot Low Stage at 1.51 feet, while St. Louis was reported at (-)1.57 feet on Oct. 19. All three gauges were expected to remain at low-water stages through at least Nov. 1.

Pipeline removal efforts were scheduled to begin on Oct. 17 at Mile 189, necessitating nightly travel shutdowns between 7:00 p.m. and 7:00 a.m. Scheduled to run through Nov. 8, the work was expected to pause on Oct. 23-25 and Nov. 1-3 to pass any queued vessels.

A safety advisory was reported at Miles 228-230 due to an ongoing repair project at the I-10 bridge, with intermittent navigation shutdowns expected through June 2023.

Old River Lock is reportedly shut to navigation through Nov. 13 for repairs and maintenance. Tows seeking access to the Red River during the closure are able to detour through the Atchafalaya River.

Reduced river levels prompted draft limits of 9.0 feet at Miles 80-184, with requests for larger drafts reportedly under consideration on a vessel-by-vessel basis. Dredging was expected to close the river at Mile 126 for approximately 24 hours, starting on Oct. 18. Dredging at Miles 171-172 was expected to begin on Oct. 21.

Lock shutdowns for the winter navigation season are scheduled to begin with Lock 12 on Dec. 13. Intermittent 5-11 hour waits were noted at Lock 16 during the week. Corps data put Lock 27 delays in a wide 10-25 hour range.

Illinois River:

Wickets continued in the raised position at both Peoria Lock and LaGrange Lock due to low water levels, necessitating lockages through both sites. Minimal delays were reported during the week.

Starting on June 1, 2023, the Illinois Waterway is scheduled to shut to commercial navigation for a 120-day period. Concurrent shutdowns for maintenance and repairs are scheduled at Brandon Road Lock, Dresden Island Lock, Marseilles Lock, and Starved Rock Lock running 90-120 days each. The river experienced a similar round of closures in mid-2020.

Ohio River:

Low water levels reduced draft maximums to nine feet for the full length of the Ohio, Tennessee, and Cumberland Rivers. Additionally, tows faced capacity reductions on travel through the Cairo, Ill., area, and dredging on the Ohio River was reported at Miles 965-974, in the Mound City, Mo., area.

The primary chamber at Cannelton Lock is shut for miter gate replacement until Nov. 11, leaving tows to pass through the site’s auxiliary chamber. Tows typically required a minimum of two lockages to transit the site, resulting in 16-28 hour delays through the week.

The Montgomery Lock main chamber was scheduled to close on Oct. 17 for repairs and maintenance, prompting detours through the site’s auxiliary chamber through Dec. 16. Minimal waits were reported through Oct. 19.

Wait times at Belleville Lock were noted up to 17 hours during the week. Olmsted Lock saw intermittent 4-9 hour delays. The Tennessee River’s Kentucky Lock saw waits in the 3-9 hour range. Kentucky Lock is in the midst of a long-term construction project slated to run through 2024.

Dive inspections and maintenance to the Bio-Acoustic Fish Fence system at the Cumberland River’s Barkley Lock were scheduled for Oct. 17-21, blocking navigation daily from 6:00 a.m. to 6:00 p.m.

Arkansas River:

Ongoing Norrell Lock repairs saw the site shut to daylight-hour navigation through Nov. 20, blocking marine traffic daily between 7:00 a.m. and 7:00 p.m. Tow widths were capped at 70 feet on all lockages. An additional complete shutdown at the site is on the books for Jan. 30-31, 2023.