All posts by mickeybarb@charter.net

US Natural Gas Falls Below $3.00/mmBtu for First Time Since May 2021

Natural Gas, News, News Briefs, U.S.

US natural gas futures fell below $3.00/mmBtu for the first time in 19 months amid an abnormally mild winter that has helped spark a selloff among the country’s commodities. Doomsday fears that suppliers would not be able to meet wintertime demand have been erased by a confluence of factors, leading gas prices to plunge after hitting a 14-year high of $10.03/mmBtu in August.

Key reasons for the fall: the US and Europe managed to refill their buffer inventories ahead of winter, and relatively balmy seasonal temperatures in the Northern Hemisphere have so far dampened demand for heating; and a longer-than-expected shutdown at a big Texas liquefaction terminal has constrained gas exports and thus boosted domestic supplies, contributing to the lower prices.

Natural gas had been one of the most bullish commodity stories in recent years. Prices hit the August high amid a global supply crunch that was aggravated last year by Russia’s invasion of Ukraine.

But hedge funds have turned the most bearish on US gas prices in almost three years, according to data released by the US Commodity Futures Trading Commission on Friday, Jan. 20. Gas for February delivery traded as low as $2.992/mmBtu on Wednesday, Jan. 5, on the New York Mercantile Exchange, the lowest since May 2021, according to Bloomberg.

US Failed to Fully Assess Impacts of Bayer Idaho Phosphate Mine

Featured, News, Pacific N.W., Phosphate

The US Bureau of Land Management (BLM) did not adequately assess environmental harms when approving a plan by P4 Production LLC, a subsidiary of Bayer AG, to develop a phosphate mine in Idaho, a federal judge ruled, according to Bloomberg Law.

The Center for Biological Diversity, Western Watersheds Project, and WildEarth Guardians sued the agency, alleging that it did not take a hard look at potential selenium pollution from the Caldwell Canyon Mine (GM May 20, 2022), nor did it consider the mine’s impacts on the near-threatened greater sage grouse.

Judge B. Lynn Winmill of the US District Court for the District of Idaho mostly agreed with the groups, determining that the BLM violated the National Environmental Policy Act and Federal Land Management Act when it approved the mine without fully assessing all of its potential harms.

The agency did not consider the indirect effects to public health by sending the phosphate rock to be processed at the Soda Springs plant, which would produce the herbicide glyphosate for use in Roundup products, Winmill said. The plant, which was listed as a Superfund site in 1990, pollutes groundwater and surface-water, which impacts local communities.

The BLM also failed to adequately assess the impacts of the project on the greater sage grouse, which could experience habitat loss and harm to population connectivity, the judge said in his Tuesday, Jan. 24, opinion partially granting summary judgment to the environmental groups and partially granting summary judgment to the agency.

Winmill disagreed with the environmental groups that the BLM failed to take a hard look at the cumulative impacts on water resources, ruling that its Environmental Impact Statement provided detailed and sufficient information. The agency also did not violate Idaho’s water quality rules, as it obtained and complied with all necessary permits and authorizations, Winmill said.

The groups asked the judge to vacate the approval, but attorneys for the Center for Biological Diversity said in an email that it is unclear what remedy the court is granting.

P4 argued that the mine is crucial and is needed for the company’s elemental phosphorus plant operations near Soda Springs, formerly owned by Monsanto Inc. Company officials said the Caldwell Canyon Mine would sustain about 185 mining jobs and 585 plant jobs for about 40 years, and would aid the region by providing $47 million annually in payroll, taxes, royalties, and purchases, as well as sustaining support and service jobs.

BLM approved the Caldwell Canyon Mine in August 2019 (GM Aug. 16, 2019) after issuing a final environmental impact statement three months previously. The project is designed to develop three leases on Schmidt Ridge in Dry Valley, about 13 miles northeast of Soda Springs.

P4 would use mining methods at the Caldwell Canyon Mine similar to those used at the company’s Blackfoot Bridge Mine. Work would begin in time to transition from the Blackfoot Bridge Mine near the Blackfoot River, where ore is projected to be depleted in less than seven years.

In total, mining and support facilities would disturb about 1,559 acres – 153 acres of BLM public land, seven acres of previously disturbed US Forest Service land, 230 acres of Idaho State Endowment land, and 1,169 acres of private land. The expected mine life would be 42 years, followed by an expected two years of reclamation.

Mabanaft, Hapag-Lloyd Eye Clean Ammonia as Bunker Fuel

Ammonia, Germany, Houston, TX, News, News Briefs

Energy company Mabanaft GmbH & Co. KG, Hamburg, and shipping company Hapag-Lloyd AG, Hamburg, on Jan. 25 announced they have signed a Memorandum of Understanding (MOU) to evaluate options for the safe handling of clean ammonia as bunker fuel to Hapag-Lloyd, first at the Port of Hamburg, Germany, and next at the Port of Houston, Texas.

Together, Mabanaft and Hapag-Lloyd will assess the viability of and the options for the safe handling of clean ammonia as a bunker fuel in and around the Port of Hamburg. The companies will evaluate the commercial, technical, and regulatory requirements and engage with all relevant stakeholders as part of this initiative. In a second step, a similar assessment will be done for the Port of Houston.

Mabanaft is in the process of developing infrastructure in Hamburg for the import and supply of clean ammonia for a lead customer, along with a larger infrastructure investment program, to create a platform for low carbon fuel alternatives. In November last year, Mabanaft announced the intention to build Germany’s first large-scale, green energy import terminal in Hamburg, together with project partner Air Products (GM Nov. 23, 2022). Targeted to provide hydrogen to Germany in 2026, the planned import terminal is to be located at Mabanaft’s existing Blumensand terminal in the port.

Mabanaft is a shareholder in Gulf Coast Ammonia LLC (GCA) (GM Jan. 10, 2020), a world-scale ammonia production facility in Texas City, Texas, scheduled for commissioning by mid-2023.

IHI Looks to Convert LNG Terminals to Ammonia

Japan, LNG, News, News Briefs

IHI Corp., Tokyo, announced on Jan. 25 that it has started looking into converting liquefied natural gas (LNG) receiving and storage terminals near many gas-fired power plants into ammonia-based facilities. IHI said converting LNG facilities should drive ammonia uptake by slashing costs and ensuring effective land usage.

IHI, which is one of Japan’s leading LNG receiving and storage terminal manufacturers, said it will draw on its corrosion expertise and experimental technologies for materials to study the feasibility of minimally modifying these terminals during the second half of this decade.

Ammonia

Ammonia, China, Eastern Cornbelt, Europe, India, Lithuania, Market Watch, Northern Plains, Tampa, U.S. Gulf, Western Cornbelt

US Gulf/Tampa:

The Tampa anhydrous ammonia price for February tumbled to $790/mt CFR, down some $185/mt CFR, or 19%, from January’s $975/mt CFR. A significant drop had been expected due to the much lower natural gas prices in Europe, which spurred more domestic ammonia production, thus requiring less ammonia from the international market.

Eastern Cornbelt:

Ammonia prepay remained at $1,095-$1,110/st FOB in the Eastern Cornbelt, with the low confirmed at Lima, Ohio. Most Illinois and Indiana terminals were unchanged at the $1,100/st FOB mark for prepay tons.

Western Cornbelt:

Spring prepay offers for ammonia were unchanged at $1,050-$1,100/st FOB in the Western Cornbelt, with the low in Nebraska and the high at Palmyra, Mo. Iowa terminals were reported in the $1,060-$1,070/st FOB range in late January.

Northern Plains:

Spring prepay ammonia pricing reportedly dropped to $1,050-$1,100/st FOB in the Northern Plains, down from earlier offers in the $1,100-$1,160/st FOB range, with the low reported at Velva, N.D. Delivered ammonia was pegged at the $1,100/st FOB mark in North Dakota, with little spring buying taking place.

China:   

Reduced domestic Chinese demand for ammonia during the last half of 2022 led to a decrease in ammonia imports and an increase in exports for the year. Trade Data Monitor reported 2022 imports at 231,000 mt, down 71% from 809,000 mt imported in 2021. Indonesia was China’s main supplier with 135,000 mt, followed by Saudi Arabia with 55,000 mt.

China exported 238,000 mt of ammonia in 2022, compared to just 2,000 mt in 2021. January-June exports totaled 17,000 mt, while second-half exports jumped to 222,000 mt.

The Chinese ammonia was offered at a discount to that of the Arab Gulf, leading many buyers to switch. India was the primary recipient with 94,000 mt, snagging about 44% of the total exports. Turkey followed with 27,000 mt, good for 12% of sales.

Sources speculated that exports may come off in 2023 as global ammonia prices soften. The main benefit of the Chinese product was its lower price compared to tons originating from the Arab Gulf and Southeast Asia.

December imports were reported at 15,000 mt, off 55% from the year-ago 34,000 mt. December exports were pegged at 37,000 mt, compared to 111 mt recorded in December 2021.

India:     

Contract tons continue to comprise the bulk of imports, although spot importers were able to take advantage of lower ammonia prices from China in the last half of 2022. Sources said that the $850-$860/mt CFR spot price paid for Chinese product at the time nearly matched the prices from earlier contracts with Arab Gulf producers.

January-November imports were reported at 2 million mt by Trade Data Monitor, down 9% from 2.2 million mt imported through January-November 2021. Saudi Arabia led the pack with 825,000 mt, more than double the year-ago 396,000 mt, followed by Qatar, Indonesia, and Bahrain. China sent 69,000 mt during the period, up from 11 mt in January-November 2021.

November imports stood at 191,000 mt, rising 6% year-over-year from 180,000 mt. Saudi Arabia took 36% of the import market with 68,000 mt, off from 76,000 mt in November 2021, while China sent 33,000 mt. China sent zero ammonia to India in both November 2020 and November 2021.

Italy:

There have been reports that Yara is set to restart production at its Ferrara, Italy, plants at the end of this month. Ferrara has the capacity to produce 600,000 mt/y of ammonia and 600,000 million mt/y of urea, according to the company.

A Yara spokesperson was unable to comment to Green Markets on the reports, given that the company currently is in a “silent period” ahead of its fourth-quarter results publication on Feb. 8. The spokesperson reiterated that Yara “continuously monitors and adapts” to market conditions, adding that the company will provide an update in its upcoming fourth-quarter results. Yara is understood to have a total European regional ammonia capacity of 4.8 million mt/y (GM Oct. 21, 2022).

Lithuania:

Nitrogen fertilizer producer AB Achema plans to resume ammonia production in early February, according to a report by Fertilizer Daily, citing a company spokesperson. The company suspended ammonia production on Dec. 19 due to increased natural gas prices, although it continued to produce ammonium nitrate (GM Dec. 16, 2022). Achema had not responded to GM inquiries by press time.

The Jonava-based producer has 1.1 million mt/y of ammonia production capacity, and its nitrogen fertilizer production capacities include 1.3 million mt/y for ammonium nitrate, according to the Green Markets database.

Urea

Black Sea, Brazil, China, Eastern Canada, Eastern Cornbelt, India, Market Watch, Middle East, Northeast, Northern Plains, U.S. Gulf, Urea, Western Cornbelt

US Gulf:

NOLA granular urea prices dropped as low as $340/st FOB early in the week before rebounding. The final range was reported as $340-$392/st FOB, down from the week-ago $385-$418/st FOB.

Eastern Cornbelt:

Urea was reported in a broad range at $450-$490/st FOB in the Eastern Cornbelt, with the Cincinnati, Ohio, market pegged at $460-$470/st FOB. In the Great Lakes region, Michigan sources quoted the latest urea offers at $495-$510/st FOB, depending on location and time of shipment.

Western Cornbelt:

Urea prices remained at $400-$450/st FOB in the Western Cornbelt, with the low reported at Port Neal, Iowa. The St. Louis, Mo., urea market was unchanged at $430-$450/st FOB in late January.

Northern Plains:

Sources said urea pricing slipped to $430/st FOB St. Paul, Minn., during the week, below the prior week’s $460-$480/st FOB range. The latest offers FOB Carrington, N.D., were pegged at the $515/st level, down from $570/st FOB earlier in January. Delivered urea in North Dakota was pegged at the $530-$545/st level for prompt tons.

Northeast:

Urea was quoted at $460-$500/st FOB in the Northeast, down from the previous week’s $500-$520/st FOB range, with the low reported at East Liverpool, Ohio, and the high at Baltimore, Md., and Fairless Hills, Pa. Delivered urea in central Pennsylvania was pegged at the $530/st level, down from $600/st DEL at the start of January.

In the Southern US, new urea offers FOB Convent, La., were quoted at the $430/st level.

Eastern Canada:

Urea pricing in Eastern Canada slipped to C$905-$1,020/mt FOB in late January, depending on location and supplier, down from the prior C$945-$1,120/mt FOB range.

India:     

While the world waits for another urea tender to be called, the Indian government adjusted its urea import policies to allow for companies to directly import urea for agricultural use. The government said it will be issuing bills of entry for urea marketing firms to allow for the importation of subsidized urea.

In the past, only urea secured through joint-venture contracts, such as the previous deal with Oman, could be imported outside of the tender process. The Indian government has been looking for ways to purchase more urea outside of the volatile tender process. It encouraged the recent contract with OMIFCO for steady deliveries of urea during a one-year term. It also authorized IPL to call a tender, open to producers only, to secure an additional 600,000 mt under another one-year contract. This tender closes Feb. 1.

Sources said that the bills of entry will allow authorized urea importers to purchase urea on the spot market. These purchases could be used to fill supply gaps at prices lower than what might be achieved if quick tenders had to be called. One cargo each from Russia and China were reportedly secured by IPL and are heading for Indian ports under the new system, said sources.

One trader said that IPL is looking for ways to remain in the urea importing business. Its authorization to import is reportedly under review by the Indian government, and one source said that there appears to be a political dispute between the government and the IPL leadership. Others said that the government may be favoring state-owned companies NFL and RCF over IPL.

The proposed fiscal-year 2023/24 budget will be released Feb. 1. There are already expectations that the subsidies for fertilizers will be reduced from the current allotment of $26.4 billion. Sources said that if the budget is reduced, buyers will have to find innovative ways to purchase lower-priced urea.

A large spot tender is still expected to be called in mid- to late-February. The growing softness in the global urea market could see a dramatic drop in what India will pay.

India imported 8.4 million mt of urea in January-November, according to Trade Data Monitor, a21% increase from 7 million mt imported during the same period of 2021. India’s largest suppliers were Oman with 1.5 million mt and China with 1.1 million mt. The imports from China were markedly down from the 2.8 million mt imported during the first 11 months of 2021.

November imports totaled 1.1 million mt, up 28% from the prior-year 824,000 mt. Product from Oman accounted for 22% of the market with 231,000 mt. China was second with 196,000 mt, ahead of 140,000 mt from Russia.

Middle East: 

Arab Gulf producers were said to still be quoting $420-$430/mt FOB, and they are still getting no response from buyers. Sources said that the asking price is too high for current market conditions.

Egyptian producers reportedly offered tons at $445/mt FOB. Sources said some small deals may have been concluded at that level in the past week or so, although no details of the tonnage or destination were available.

China:   

December exports were reported at 534,000 mt, according to Trade Date Monitor, up sharply from 35,000 mt shipped in December 2021.

Second-half 2022 exports shot higher as customs officials eased restrictions on offshore sales. July-December exports totaled 2.1 million mt, compared to 724,000 mt exported in the first semester of 2022. Even with the dramatic second-half increase, 2022 exports totaled 2.8 million mt, down 47% from the 5.3 million mt in the previous year.

India led 2022 buyers with 1.2 million mt, down from the 2.8 million in 2021, followed by Pakistan with 434,000 mt, increasing from just 17 mt received in 2021.

Sources said that customs officials were more strict with export permits in the first half of the year, and only allowed more tons to flow out of the country after officials were satisfied that domestic supplies were sufficient.

Some traders expressed hopes that more Chinese urea will be available in 2023, although others noted that the Chinese government usually limits exports early in the year to ensure a steady, low-cost supply to the country’s domestic market. The current domestic reserves of urea are reportedly well above the previous year’s averages.

Black Sea:

Prilled urea out of the Black Sea is now estimated at $355-$410/mt FOB even as limited tonnage flows out of the area.

Brazil:

The week opened with quotes of $420-$425/mt CFR and ended with a deal done for Nigerian product at $405/mt CFR. Sources called the market $405-$425/mt CFR, noting growing pressure to secure more material at the lower end. Sellers are pushing back against the dramatically lower price with new offers at $415/mt CFR, but with few interested parties.

Sources said that the lack of any major player in the global market – specifically India delaying its tender and US buyers yet to engage – is preventing any upward price correction from taking place.

Sources said the price at Rondonopolis has also dropped as more material is being offered in the area, putting the price at $600-$630/mt FOB ex-warehouse. The market’s main focus seems to be on forward purchases, as warehouse space will be needed for the February crop harvest.

UAN

Eastern Canada, Eastern Cornbelt, Market Watch, Northeast, Northern Plains, Pacific N.W., U.S. Gulf, UAN, Western Cornbelt

US Gulf:

The NOLA UAN barge market continued to be pressured, with sources calling the market in the $340-$360/st ($10.63-$11.25/unit) FOB range, down from the week-ago $350-$360/st ($10.94-$11.25/unit) FOB.

Eastern Cornbelt:

UAN-32 terminal prices remained at $400-$420/st ($12.50-$13.13/unit) FOB in the Eastern Cornbelt, with the low at Mount Vernon, Ind. The Cincinnati market was steady at the $405/st ($12.66/unit) FOB level for UAN-32 and $350-$359/st ($12.50-$12.82/unit) FOB for UAN-28.

Western Cornbelt:

UAN-32 pricing was pegged at $390-$405/st ($12.19-$12.66/unit) FOB in the Western Cornbelt, with the St. Louis market reported at the $400/st ($12.50/unit) FOB level.

Northern Plains:

UAN offers for spring tons fell to $461/st ($14.41/unit) FOB Winona, Minn., for UAN-32, and $390/st ($13.93/unit) FOB for UAN-28 at terminals in central North Dakota. Those levels were down significantly from early January offers at $546/st FOB Winona and $515/st FOB in North Dakota.

Northeast:

The UAN-32 market in the Northeast began the week at $425/st ($13.28/unit) FOB Baltimore, down from $450/st ($14.06/unit) FOB late in the previous week. By midweek, however, Baltimore pricing had reportedly slipped to $410-$415/st ($12.81-$12.97/unit) FOB, depending on supplier.

UAN-32 pricing out of terminals in upstate New York was also down significantly, falling to $500/st ($15.63/unit) FOB from the $600/st ($18.75/unit) offers reported in early January.

Pacific Northwest:

UAN-32 pricing FOB Kennewick, Wash., dropped to $480/st ($15.00/unit) in late January.

Eastern Canada:

UAN-28 was pegged in a broad range at C$695-$935/mt (C$24.82-$33.39/unit) FOB in Eastern Canada, reflecting a drop of C$67/mt at the low end of the range. Recent UAN-32 offers were confirmed as low as C$795/mt (C$24.84/unit) FOB in Ontario, down a full C$75/mt from the last report.

Ammonium Sulfate

Ammonium Sulfate, Brazil, China, Eastern Canada, Eastern Cornbelt, Market Watch, Northeast, Northern Plains, U.S. Gulf, Western Cornbelt

US Gulf:

NOLA barge prices moved down to $330-$340/st FOB from the week-ago $335-$345/st FOB.

Eastern Cornbelt:

Ammonium sulfate prices dropped to $390-$410/st FOB in the Eastern Cornbelt, down from the previous $400-$450/st FOB range.

Western Cornbelt:

Granular ammonium sulfate pricing slipped to $385-$405/st FOB in the Western Cornbelt, with the low confirmed at St. Louis and the high in Iowa.

Northern Plains:

Ammonium sulfate pricing tightened to $405-$425/st FOB and $410-$440/st DEL in the Northern Plains, down from a broad $400-$465/st DEL range reported earlier in January. Prepay tons were reportedly being offered at the $415/st DEL level in North Dakota in late January.

Northeast:

Ammonium sulfate pricing in the Northeast remained at $440-$490/st DEL for 1Q tons, depending on location.

Eastern Canada:

Sources confirmed new ammonium sulfate pricing in Eastern Canada at the C$720-$825/mt FOB level in late January, down C$20/mt at the low end of the range.

China:   

Prices remained steady in the upper $160s/mt FOB, even as supplies reportedly dwindle. Sources said that reduced industrial output at China, due both to the Lunar New Year holiday and the economic slowdown, is causing a growing shortage of ammonium sulfate for the export market.

Exports saw a dramatic increase in 2022, with Trade Data Monitor reporting 12.4 million mt shipped through the year, up 17% from the year-ago 10.6 million mt. Brazil led buyers with 3.7 million mt, followed by Turkey with 1 million mt and Vietnam with 915,000 mt.

The demand for amsul skyrocketed in the second half of the year. July-December exports were reported at 7.7 million mt, up from 4.8 million mt in January-June. December exports were 1.8 million mt, rising 127% from 775,000 mt in the previous December. Brazil accounted for 42% of export market with 735,000 mt.

Chinese government restrictions on urea and other nitrogen exports incented the increase in amsul exports, as amsul was not included on the restricted list because it is a byproduct, sources said. Buyers, looking for nitrogen content for their blending facilities, snapped up the ammonium sulfate to replace their limited access to urea.

Brazil:

Buyers have grown anxious on reports that supplies from China are dwindling. Even with urea prices dropping, a number of blending facilities are still seeking ammonium sulfate for their mix. Sources reported that the vessel lineup for amsul is below where they would like it to be.

Despite the growing concerns about availability of product, the landed price edged down on the low end to $235-$250/mt CFR. Rondonopolis also saw a slight softening, to $380-$390/mt FOB ex-warehouse.

DAP/MAP

Brazil, Central Florida, China, DAP/MAP, Eastern Canada, Eastern Cornbelt, India, Market Watch, Morocco, Northeast, Northern Plains, U.S. Exports, U.S. Gulf, Western Cornbelt

Central Florida:

Central Florida DAP trucks were posted at $650/st FOB for the week, sources said, unchanged from the prior report. MAP trucks were offered at $650/st FOB, steady from the week-ago level.

No changes were reported out of the North Florida MAP truck market, leaving posted prices flat at $650/st FOB.

US Gulf:

NOLA phosphate players described a market in search of direction, noting rising DAP values while MAP retreated from its prior-week high.

DAP barges loading in January and February saw trades and offers at $635-$640/st FOB, sources said, above the prior $628/st FOB floor, while the market’s high was generally described at $645-$650/st FOB, on par with the week-ago $650/st FOB top. Domestic producer offers were quoted at $645/st FOB, unchanged from the previous report.

NOLA MAP moved in the opposite direction, however. Prices held flat at the week-ago $595/st FOB floor, while players pegged the high closer to $615/st FOB, slipping from $618/st FOB at last check. Offers from domestic producers rang in at $620/st FOB, with no trades confirmed at that level.

The NOLA DAP barge market was reported in a $635-$650/st FOB range for the trading week, lifting from $628-$650/st FOB at last check. NOLA MAP barges tracked in a $595-$615/st FOB range, off from the week-ago $595-$618/st FOB.

US Exports:

With nothing new reported, last-done pricing on the US Gulf export phosphate markets continued at $650/mt FOB. Market players reported new offers at $670/mt FOB.

Eastern Cornbelt:

DAP prices were quoted at $685-$700/st FOB in the Eastern Cornbelt, with the Cincinnati market pegged at the $690-$700/st FOB level. MAP remained at $675-$685/st FOB in the region, with the low at Cincinnati.

MAP offers in the Great Lakes region were reported at $695-$710/st FOB in late January, depending on location.

Western Cornbelt:

DAP remained at $685-$695/st FOB in the Western Cornbelt, while MAP pricing broadened to $665-$690/st FOB in the region, with the high confirmed in Iowa. The lower end of both ranges was reported at St. Louis during the week.

Northern Plains:

The latest DAP offers at St. Paul were reported in the $705-$715/st FOB range, with MAP pegged at $690-$700/st FOB. Delivered green MAP in western North Dakota slipped to $765/st for 1Q tons, down roughly $27/st from last report.

Northeast:

Phosphate pricing FOB East Liverpool firmed to $720/st for DAP, up $15/st from last report, while MAP pricing slipped to $695/st FOB at that location, down $5/st.

Eastern Canada:

MAP in Eastern Canada slipped to a broad C$1,100-$1,280/mt FOB for recent offers, down C$60/mt at the low end of the range. The latest DAP pricing at Montreal was quoted at the C$1,090/mt FOB level, down C$30/mt from earlier in January.

Morocco:

OCP Group SA has signed Memoranda of Understanding (MOUs) with four Indian fertilizer producers, paving the way for the Moroccan phosphates group to supply India with up to 1.7 million mt of phosphate fertilizers for the agricultural season over the next 12 months, according to an OCP statement on Jan. 21.

The MOUs will provide for the delivery of up to 700,000 mt of TSP and 1 million mt of DAP to Indian farmers, OCP said. The phosphates group did not comment on the pricing framework.

The MOUs were inked with Rashtriya Chemicals and Fertilisers Ltd. (RCF), National Fertilisers Ltd. (NFL), Chambal Fertilisers and Chemicals Ltd., and Paradeep Phosphates Ltd., according to India’s Financial Express.

OCP will also reportedly supply 50,000 mt of potash to the four companies. However, this could not be confirmed with OCP by press time.

The agreements are the latest in India’s plans to increase its long-term arrangements for fertilizer imports in an attempt to reduce import prices and “get fertilizer at our price,” according to a Jan. 21 tweet by India’s Fertilizer Minister Mansukh Mandaviya, as cited by the report.

China:   

Sources said that the lack of available DAP is expected to continue through the first quarter. Price discussions were reported in the $650s/mt FOB, although a dearth of public spot deals made nailing down pricing difficult.

DAP exports for 2022 totaled 3.6 million mt, according to Trade Data Monitor, a43% decrease from 6.3 million mt in 2021. The main buyers were India with 1.2 million mt, followed by Bangladesh with 605,000 mt. The remaining buyers took orders of 300,000 mt or less.

December DAP exports were 253,000 mt, a marked increase from 35,000 mt recorded in December 2021, reflecting easing government restrictions on DAP exports in the second half of 2022. First-half 2022 DAP exports totaled 1.3 million mt, compared to 2.3 million mt in July-December.

Exports of MAP for 2022 were reported at 1.9 million mt, off 50% from the year-ago 3.8 million mt. The two top buyers were Brazil with 652,000 mt and Australia with 353,000 mt.

December MAP exports were counted at 136,000 mt, up dramatically from 28,000 mt shipped in December 2021. Australia took 49% of the exports with 66,000 mt, followed by Brazil with 11,000 mt.

India:     

Sources said buyers are becoming more aggressive in trying to move DAP prices down. Bids were reported coming in at $660/mt CFR, but with no confirmed deals on hand.

Paradeep Phosphate, Chambal, RCF, and NFL, signed an agreement with OCP of Morocco to receive a total of 1 million mt of DAP, with pricing to be negotiated for each cargo. The deal will also reportedly include 700,000 mt of TSP and 50,000 of potash.

The action is in line with previous efforts to bypass public tenders and traders. During the last half of 2022, many of the large Indian companies engaged directly with producers in China for their product. The efforts, said one trader at the time, reduced the cost of the DAP, and because they were dealing with Chinese state enterprises, ensured the fertilizer would quickly clear Chinese customs.

Trade Data Monitor pegged January-November imports at 6.2 million mt, a 46% year-over-year increase from 4.2 million mt. Morocco sent 1.9 million mt, followed by Saudi Arabia with 1.5 million mt. Only China, with 1.2 million mt sent, showed a decline in shipments to India during the period.

November imports were reported at 574,000 mt, down 32% from the 849,000 mt imported in November 2021. Saudi Arabia accounted for 38% of the market with 216,000 mt, while China sent 151,000 mt. The US shipped 113,000 mt. According to Trade Data Monitor, the US did not send any MAP to India in either December 2021 or December 2020.

Brazil:   

The price for imported MAP narrowed to $655-$660/mt CFR on limited interest from buyers. Rondonopolis moved up to $790-$825/mt FOB ex-warehouse under aggressive buying.