US Gulf:
NOLA urea barge prices
were up from last week, with prompt, loaded barges remaining at a premium. June
barge trades were quoted in a wide range at $297-$330/st FOB during the week,
with July reported at $275-$295/st FOB NOLA. Those levels were up from last
week’s broad $245-$320/st FOB range.
Eastern Cornbelt:
Urea remained at
$460-$480/st FOB in the Eastern Cornbelt, with the upper end of the range
reported at Cincinnati, Ohio.
Western Cornbelt:
Urea prices slipped to
$440-$470/st FOB in the region, down from last week’s $460-$480/st FOB range,
with the St. Louis, Mo., market quoted at $440-$445/st FOB at midweek. In the
Southern Plains, the Catoosa/Inola, Okla., urea market remained at $475-$490/st
FOB during the week.
Northern Plains:
Urea slipped to $480-$490/st FOB St. Paul, Minn., with the low also
confirmed for the last offers out of at Carrington and Alton, N.D. Delivered
urea pricing was quoted at $500-$520/st in the Northern Plains in mid-June,
well below the $630-$640/st DEL high reported in May.
Northeast:
Urea slipped to
$430-$440/st FOB in the Northeast, depending on location, down from the last
confirmed $440-$470/st FOB range.
Eastern Canada:
Eastern Canada urea
slipped to a broad C$635-$850/mt FOB in mid-June, depending on location and
supplier, down C$40/mt at the low end of the range.
Black Sea:
Prilled urea prices tightened
to $244-$249/mt FOB from $240-$265/mt FOB reported last week.
India:
Rashtriya Chemicals and Fertilizers
Ltd. (RCF) awarded only 560,000 mt in its tender. The company had hoped receive
a minimum of 800,000 mt. Sources said the limited tonnage was mostly a result
of Chinese producers unwilling to accept the netbacks from the tender’s
$280-$285/CFR price, as well as a short shipping window that required vessels
to be loaded by July 17.
The lack of Chinese urea
in the tender was evident in the final numbers. Only 95,000 mt will be
delivered to India’s East Coast. The remaining 465,000 mt will be sent to ports
on the West Coast. The bulk of the awards will be covered by Arab Gulf
producers.
RCF Urea Tender Awards (Total – 560,000 mt)
|
East Coast
(95,000 mt at $284.90/mt CFR)
|
Awarded Company
|
Quantity (mt)
|
Discharge Port
|
Sun
International
|
50,000
|
Paradip
|
Fertiglobe
|
45,000
|
Gangavaram
|
West Coast
(465,000 mt at $279.70/mt CFR)
|
Awarded Company
|
Quantity (mt)
|
Discharge Port
|
Samsung
|
45,000
|
Kandla
|
Agricom
|
40,000
|
Mundra
|
Swiss
Singapore
|
60,000
|
Pipavav
|
60,000
|
Tuna
Adani
|
OQ
Trading
|
50,000
|
Jaigarh
|
50,000
|
Mundra
|
40,000
|
Mundra
|
40,000
|
Rozi
|
40,000
|
Dahej
|
40,000
|
Hazira
|
There are now
expectations that a new tender will be called as early as July 10-15. Sources
said this timeframe will allow for all of the awarded tons to have vessels
nominated and be in the last steps of loading for shipment, thus preventing
suppliers the opportunity to withdraw their tons in the hopes of gaining a
better netback in the next tender.
Chinese urea is expected
to play a bigger role in the next tender, as the Chinese domestic season will
end on June 30, leaving producers looking for markets for their product. As
long as pricing remained strong in China’s current domestic market, producers
had no reason to accept lower levels from the export market. After July 1, the
domestic market’s prices are expected to come off.
China’s export
permission routine remains a possible fly in the ointment, however. If the next
tender has a similarly tight export window, traders may find it difficult to
ensure the export paperwork will be completed in time.
Some traders criticized
RCF for going ahead with the tender. They noted that had the buyer scrapped the
tender and immediately called a new one, RCF might have been able to get the
800,000 mt it wanted, and possibly more. The change in the shipping deadline
would have allowed for more tons to build up in China without buyers lined up.
At the same time, supplies in the Arab Gulf would have similarly built up,
putting downward pressure on prices.
One trader noted, however, that urea is a sensitive political issue as much as it is an agricultural necessity. Few in the state-owned companies would be willing to risk the wrath of farmers complaining to their local legislators and the national government.
Indonesia:
The Indonesian
government continues to investigate Pupuk’s policies, sources reported. Details
are thin, but some traders have said the government is looking into prices
achieved by Pupuk and its subsidiary producers in relation to subsidy payments
made by the government for the domestic market.
No new export sales
opportunities are expected out of Indonesia until late July at the earliest,
said sources. Some international traders have even begun excluding Indonesian
urea from their July and August purchase plans.
South Korea:
South Korea urea imports
totaled 368,000 mt in January-May, Trade Data Monitor reported, off 30%
from the year-ago 525,000 mt. May imports stood at 70,000 mt, down from 90,000
mt recorded in May 2022. The month’s largest suppliers were China with 33,000
mt, Qatar with 26,000 mt, and Indonesia with 10,000 mt.
Middle East:
Sources reported a wide range of activity from the area. Just as prices were settled at $265-$270/mt FOB, based on netbacks from the RCF/India tender, sources noted OQ Trading closing a deal to Myanmar with a $253/mt FOB netback, shifting the market range to $253-$270/mt FOB.
Traders looked at the
deal into Myanmar as an effort by OQ to average out the price of the tons it
has to supply to India. Many of the tons the company is slated to send to India
will be purchased from the OQ’s producing side on a formula basis. By averaging
the Myanmar and Indian prices, the trading house seemingly hopes to get a
better return on its sales into India, sources said.
Due both to existing contracts and the RCF business, Arab Gulf producers were said to be fully booked. Discussions for new orders will begin with shipments in late July.
Egyptian producers
continue to push for – and get – higher prices. The week opened with sales at
$312/mt FOB and ended at $340/mt FOB. Many of the sales were for multiple
cargoes of about 5,000 mt. However, MOPCO and Abu Qir were able to secure deals
involving 10,000 mt each as the price edged upward. As the week closed, Abu Qir
sold 15,000 mt of granular at $340/mt FOB. In another deal, the same company
sold 20,000 mt of prilled urea at $322/mt FOB.
The most likely
destination for each of the lots is Europe. Sources pointed out Egyptian urea –
along with that from Algeria – is exempt from the re-instated EU 6.5% tariff on
urea.
Egyptian producers continued to push for – and get – higher prices. The week opened with sales at $312/mt FOB and ended at $330/mt FOB. Many of the sales were for multiple cargoes of about 5,000 mt. MOPCO and Abu Qir were able to secure deals of 10,000 mt each as the price edged upward, however.
Europe is the most
likely destination for all of the cargoes. Sources pointed out that Egyptian
urea, along with product from Algeria, is exempt from the EU’s reinstated 6.5%
tariff on urea.
China:
Sources reported prilled
urea prices as all over the map. The estimated export price was put at $300/mt
FOB, based on the ex-plant price. At the same time, deals with Southeast Asian
buyers showed netbacks at $275/mt FOB.
Granular urea was more
stable, with prices reported at $300-$310/mt FOB. Granular showed less
volatility due to limited spot availability.
Sources noted that most
of the granular suppliers only had licenses to export large cargoes, while the
main demand from regional buyers was focused on smaller lots closer to 6,000
mt. Deals for these small quantities could be done, but only for mid-July
shipment at the earliest. The delay was attributed to the export control regime
imposed by Beijing. Local customs officials need to first ensure the exported
material will not cause a shortage in the domestic market, before permission
will be granted for a producer to sell a specific amount to a specific buyer.
Export prices are
expected to begin coming off on July 1, when the domestic season closes. So
far, Chinese producers have been able to get better prices from the local
market than from exporting tons. The strong demand for the domestic top-off
season allowed producers to reject the lower prices available from the
RCF/India tender. The absence of that safety net means that producers will have
to either accept the price from India, or risk building up large reserves in
their warehouses with limited selling opportunities.
Urea exports totaled
785,000 mt in January-May, Trade Data Monitor reported, up 46%
year-over-year from 538,000 mt. May exports were noted at 183,000 mt, more than
doubling the 86,000 mt sent in May 2022. May’s main buyers were India with
46,000 mt, Australia with 36,000 mt, and South Korea with 34,000 mt.
Brazil:
The Brazil market
reacted to the inability of RCF/India to achieve its 800,000 mt purchase goal,
jumping to $300-$320/mt CFR, a roughly 12% increase from the previous week.
Even Iranian material was offered at levels higher than non-sanctioned product
from last week. Sources said a trader offered Iranian product at $290/mt CFR
into a market with limited buying interest.
The price bump was seen
by many as a clear indication that a urea price floor has been found.
The Rondonopolis market
showed a slight increase, with sources putting the range at $410-$440/mt FOB
ex-warehouse. Some inland areas have withdrawn their pricing lists, however,
leaving possible future price trends up in the air.