Western Cornbelt:
The ammonium nitrate market remained at $590-$610/st FOB Missouri terminals in early January.
All posts by mickeybarb@charter.net
Ammonium Sulfate
US Gulf:
NOLA barge price ideas were put in the $345-$360/st FOB range, down from the previous $349-$365/st FOB.
Eastern Cornbelt:
Granular ammonium sulfate pricing was steady at $400-$450/st FOB in the Eastern Cornbelt, with the Cincinnati market unchanged at $400-$420/st FOB.
Western Cornbelt:
Granular ammonium sulfate pricing was quoted at $420-$450/st FOB in the Western Cornbelt, with the low confirmed at St. Louis.
Northern Plains:
Ammonium sulfate pricing in the Northern Plains remained at $400-$420/st DEL for 1Q tons and up to $465/st DEL for spring prepay.
Northeast:
Ammonium sulfate was reported in a broad range at $440-$490/st DEL for 1Q tons in the Northeast, depending on location.
Eastern Canada:
Sources confirmed new ammonium sulfate pricing in Eastern Canada at the C$740-$825/mt FOB level in early January, down from C$818-$825/mt FOB in December.
China:
Reports of deals totaling 20,000-25,000 mt in the high-$160s/mt FOB circulated during the week, but with no confirmations. The last known deals came late in December in the low-$170s/mt FOB. The lower price was not unexpected, said sources, as demand for amsul has waned as urea prices began to soften.
Sources reported the Chinese government will once again not include amsul on its list of restricted exports. One trader said that while ammonium sulfate is used as a fertilizer, it is a byproduct of other production and therefor does not fit in the same category of concern as urea or DAP.
Indonesia:
Pupuk called a tender for 40,000 mt for February-April arrival. The tender, the latest in a series of tenders seeking amsul, closes on Jan. 6 for paper submissions and early next week for electronic submissions.
The most recent tender for amsul closed on Dec. 14. Pupuk took 20,000 mt, shipping in 5,000 mt lots, at $200/mt CFR. With freight rates noted at $18-$20/mt for large cargoes and $28-$30/mt for smaller lots, sources worked the netback to China in the low-$170s/mt FOB at the current levels.
Brazil:
Prices remained steady at the ports at $250-$265/mt CFR, and in Rondonopolis at $400-$410/mt FOB ex-warehouse. Sources said the lower end of the landed price is mostly for February product, while the higher end is reserved for prompt shipments.
Turkey:
Trade Data Monitor reported January-November ammonium sulfate imports at 930,000 mt, up 13% year-over-year from 821,000 mt.
November imports were put at 139,000 mt, rising dramatically from 92,000 mt purchased during November 2021. China supplied 95% of imports for the month.
Thailand:
Ammonium sulfate imports for January-November were reported at 359,000 mt by Trade Data Monitor, roughly17% down from the year-ago 431,000 mt. China supplied 299,000 mt for the period.
November imports were reported at 2,300 mt, a fall from 45,000 mt received in November 2021.
DAP/MAP
Central Florida:
Central Florida DAP truck postings were quoted at $650/st FOB, falling from $660/st FOB in the prior report. Truck-loaded MAP was posted even with DAP at $650/st FOB, also softening from $660/st FOB at last check.
MAP trucks loading from North Florida were noted at $700/st FOB, unchanged from late December.
US Gulf:
Despite minimal new business reported for the week, prices on the NOLA barge phosphate markets were seen lifting from prior levels.
DAP barges firmed from the last-reported $600/st FOB low to $615/st FOB, for tons believed to be of Russian origin. Most new offers were heard pressing toward the top of the prior high at $620-$625/st FOB, with players generally calling the current-week top unchanged from the last-reported $625/st FOB.
Similarly, minimal confirmed business left the MAP ceiling unmoved from the previous $620/st FOB, while players described a weekly trading floor at $605/st FOB, above the prior $595/st FOB. Offers for the week were generally heard in a $610-$620/st FOB range.
Sources noted NOLA DAP barges in a $615-$625/st FOB range for the trading period, above $600-$625/st FOB published previously. MAP barges firmed to $605-$620/st FOB from $595-$620/st FOB at last check.
US Exports:
Nothing new was reported on the US Gulf export market, leaving pricing unchanged in a $640-$670/mt FOB range. Sources described offers “around” the $670/mt FOB level for new volume.
Eastern Cornbelt:
DAP offers were quoted at $685-$705/st FOB in the Eastern Cornbelt, with the low confirmed at Cincinnati, reflecting a $5-$15/st drop from last report. MAP pricing was pegged at $680-$700/st FOB, with the low once again reported at Cincinnati.
Western Cornbelt:
DAP pricing remained at $685-$705/st FOB in the Western Cornbelt, with the St. Louis market quoted at $685-$695/st FOB. MAP was reported at $680-$700/st FOB in the region, with the low again confirmed at St. Louis.
Northern Plains:
Sources pegged the DAP and MAP markets at the $690/st level FOB St. Paul for the latest business, down from $700-$720/st FOB in mid-December. Delivered green MAP in western North Dakota remained at $792/st for 1Q tons.
Northeast:
Phosphate pricing FOB East Liverpool slipped to $705/st for DAP and $700/st for MAP, well below the $815/st FOB levels reported in early December. Delivered MAP was pegged at the $750/st level for 1Q tons in central Pennsylvania.
Eastern Canada:
MAP pricing in Eastern Canada slipped to a broad C$1,160-$1,280/mt FOB for recent offers, down C$20/mt at the low end of the range. The latest DAP offers at Montreal were quoted at the C$1,120/mt FOB level, down C$50/mt from December.
China:
Sources noted softening DAP export prices, citing reports that YUC sold a cargo to India in the low-$700s/mt CFR for a netback of $685-$695/mt FOB. At the same time, some traders are reportedly offering Chinese DAP to Asian buyers at $540/mt COFR for a netback closer to $520/mt FOB, although no deals have been reported at this lower level.
It appears as if DAP and MAP will remain on the Chinese government’s restricted export list. This means exporters will have to persuade customs officials that cargoes proposed for export will not adversely impact domestic phosphate fertilizer reserves.
India:
A direct sale of DAP from Chinese producer YUC to NFL was reported in the low-$700s/mt CFR, showing a downward move in prices for Chinese phosphate to India. In the past few months, Indian buyers were able to secure deals in the $720s/mt CFR from DAP exporters other than China.
Even as prices for imports soften, India is working to reduce its dependency on spot DAP purchases and to expand its contract buying resources. The Indian fertilizer minister will be visiting Morocco on Jan. 13-14 to sign a deal to increase phos rock imports from the North African country. During the visit, media reports said the minister will also explore the possibility of setting up joint ventures between Indian and Moroccan firms to produce DAP for exclusive shipment to India.
India is hoping to replicate its phos rock deal with Egypt soon after the Moroccan visit. The long-term agreements for the product will make DAP production in India easier, and reduce the amount of DAP and NPKs needing to be imported.
The establishment of Indian DAP production in Morocco would also be a major win for India, as sources said production costs in Morocco are much lower. Part of the savings will come in the ready access to phos rock and phos acid. Ammonia purchases for the plants would also be easier because Morocco is better situated than India to receive ammonia from multiple sources, including the Caribbean and Southeast Asia.
At the same time, Morocco is moving to increase its capacity for solar and wind power generation. The massive reduction in energy costs in the sunny, windy country would benefit Indian DAP buyers.
RCF issued a tender on Dec. 29 for the purchase of phosphate rock and/or MAP/DAP. The tender closes Jan. 9. Offers are requested to remain valid for 15 days from date of tender closing.
RCF is looking to buy 35,000 mt of phosphate rock with a minimum 32% P2O5 for shipment to MBPT (Hay Bunder) within 30 days of the purchase order. Under the same tender, the buyer is looking to buy two 20,000 mt lots of MAP/DAP, with the first shipment required to arrive up to February and the second up to March.
Brazil:
Prices for MAP have firmed as demand for the soybean crop picks up. Sources put the landed price at $650-$670/mt CFR, with the bulk of the business reportedly being done at the higher end of the range. Traders also noted that the barter rate between crop and fertilizer has improved, leading more farmers to ask for MAP deliveries.
Rondonopolis prices have tightened to $790-$815/mt FOB ex-warehouse. Sources said they expect to see prices move up as more local buyers look for material.
TSP
US Gulf:
NOLA TSP barges softened to at least the $565-$570/st FOB range for the week, off from $575-$585/st FOB reported last, although some believed tons could be had for as low as $545/st FOB.
Eastern Cornbelt:
The last TSP offers FOB Cincinnati were pegged at $625-$635/st FOB.
Western Cornbelt:
Sources continued to report no TSP availability at St. Louis or Caruthersville, Mo., during the week.
Phosphoric Acid
Eastern Cornbelt:
January phos acid postings in the Eastern Cornbelt were steady at $14.00/unit rail-DEL, unchanged from December.
Western Cornbelt:
Phos acid pricing was unchanged at $14.00/unit rail-DEL in the Western Cornbelt for January tons.
Northern Plains:
Phos acid pricing for January shipments remained at $14.00/unit rail-DEL in the Northern Plains, unchanged from December.
India:
Fourth-quarter phosphoric acid contracts at India were pegged at $1,100-$1,200/mt P2O5 CFR. Contracts were valued at $1,715/mt P2O5 CFR in the second and third quarters, a $515-$615/mt P2O5 difference.
Ammonium Polyphosphate
Eastern Cornbelt:
10-34-0 remained at $665-$675/st FOB in the Eastern Cornbelt.
Western Cornbelt:
10-34-0 pricing was steady at $655-$675/st FOB in the Western Cornbelt, with the low in Nebraska and the high in Iowa.
Northern Plains:
The last 10-34-0 offers were quoted at $670-$680/st FOB in the Northern Plains, with delivered pricing pegged in a broad range at $700-$750/st in central and western North Dakota.
Northeast:
10-34-0 prices in New York were quoted at $750/st FOB, up $25/st from last report.
Muriate of Potash
US Gulf:
NOLA potash barge prices saw a dramatic drop to $440-$445/st FOB from the previous $480-$490/st FOB. Sources said at least one player needed to move tons in a very quiet market, and the lower prices did the job.
Eastern Cornbelt:
The potash market was reported in the $530-$545/st FOB range in the Eastern Cornbelt, down another $10-$15/st from last report, with the low confirmed at Cincinnati.
Western Cornbelt:
Potash pricing dropped to $520-$545/st FOB in the Western Cornbelt, down $5-$20/st from late December.
Northern Plains:
Sources quoted potash pricing down to $540-$545/st FOB St. Paul, with delivered offers in the $560-$570/st range in the Northern Plains. The latest prices FOB Saskatchewan mines, based on current exchange rates, were reported at $543-$553/st, depending on grade and destination.
Northeast:
Potash pricing dropped to $550/st FOB East Liverpool and $580/st rail-DEL in the region, down significantly from December offers at $635/st FOB and $650/st DEL.
Eastern Canada:
The latest potash offers in Eastern Canada were quoted at C$840-$945/mt FOB regional warehouses, well below the C$1,040-$1,110/mt FOB range reported for the last fall business. Sources referred to the lower range as a “realignment” of pricing rather than a fill program, although some said they expect to see a winter fill program offer in January.
China:
As part of the new adjustments to China’s updated import-export tariffs announced in late December, the country’s State Council implement zero tariffs on potassium chloride in 2023. According to a statement cited by media outlet Yical Global, the decision is part of the country’s strategy “to strengthen resource supply capacity and improve the resilience of industrial and supply chains.”
Belarus:
Belarus expects potash prices to decline to a “more or less fair” $420-$450/mt, and may boost shipments to its traditional markets, according to Bloomberg, citing a Belta report quotingFirst Deputy Prime Minister Nikolai Snopkov. According to the report, Belarus plans to sell potash directly to African and Latin American countries, bypassing US and EU traders.
Brazil:
Stronger demand is moving potash prices up, with sources reporting the landed price at $500-$510/mt CFR. Talks reportedly moved closer to $520/mt CFR by the end of the week, but with nothing confirmed done.
The Rondonopolis price has not yet caught up with the price enthusiasm shown at the ports. However, sources said that it won’t be long before the $650-$690/mt FOB ex-warehouse price is seen in the rearview mirror.
Thailand:
January-November potash imports were reported at 712,000 mt by Trade Data Monitor, off 21% from the 899,000 mt recorded in the prior-year period. Canada dominated suppliers with 366,000 mt.
November imports were noted at 30,000 mt, down from 79,000 mt imported in November 2021. Canadian potash accounted for 75% of imported product, at 23,000 mt.
Sulfur
Tampa:
With sulfur values reported softening in a number of key international markets over the holidays, Tampa buyers noted little motivation to sign updated purchase contracts until pricing stabilizes.
Pre-holiday speculation centering on a $50-$70/lt increase from the market’s $90/lt CFR 4Q contract shifted lower in response to the emerging offshore price landscape, leading sources to voice speculation in a wide $30-$55/lt range.
“(The) best way to characterize the market is quiet with nothing pushing it up, so lackluster sentiment has it drifting downwards,” said one source.
US refinery utilization moved sharply lower in the Energy Information Administration’s (EIA) most recent report, presumably driven by production outages resulting from Winter Storm Elliott.
Refiners operated at a combined 79.6% capacity for the week ending Dec. 30, down 12.4 percentage points from 92.0% posted one week earlier. The current-week utilization rate lagged both the year-ago 89.8% and 88.1% five-year average.
Daily crude inputs also fell, moving below the 14 million barrel/d mark for the first time since the week ending March 12, 2021. Inputs were reported at an average 13.820 million barrels/d through the period, down 2.329 million barrels/d from 16.149 million barrels/d recorded for the week ending Dec. 23.
US Gulf:
Winter Storm Elliott’s late-December pass through the US triggered widespread production outages at US Gulf refineries, Reuters reported, removing about 1.5 million barrels/d of production capacity from the region during the last week of 2022. Houston-area shutdowns were reported from Total, Motiva, and Marathon, while upsets were noted at ExxonMobil, LyondellBasell, and Valero plants across Texas.
Motiva successfully restarted a 345,000 barrel/d crude distillation unit (CDU), 160,000 barrel/d vacuum distillation unit (VDU), and 45,000 barrel/d catalytic reformer on Dec. 30 at the company’s Port Arthur, Texas facility, Genscape reported. An 88,000 barrel/d fluidic catalytic cracking unit (FCC) and 12,000 barrel/d hydrotreater, noted ramping up on Dec. 29, returned to production on Jan. 3, followed by a 210,000 barrel/d CDU and 100,000 barrel/d VDU on Jan. 4. The units were reported shutting down on Dec. 23 due to extreme cold. With a stated 636,500 barrel/d capacity, Motiva Port Arthur is the nation’s largest refinery.
Valero on Dec. 31 restarted an 80,000 barrel/d FCC at its Port Arthur refinery, shut during the same cold-weather event. A 57,000 barrel/d hydrocracker and 53,000 barrel/d catalytic reformer began ramping up activity on Dec. 26, but had not fully restarted on Jan. 3.
Pemex Deer Park, Texas, restarted multiple units on Jan. 3, including a 270,000 barrel/d CDU; 70,000 barrel/d CDU; 115,000 barrel/d VDU; 70,000 barrel/d FCC; 45,000 barrel/d catalytic reformer; 67,000 barrel/d hydrocracker; and a 72,000 barrel/d hydrotreater. The units were taken offline on Dec. 24.
Falling prices at Brazil were expected to drag the US Gulf sulfur market lower in the next round of business, with some predicting a slide into the $130s-$140s/mt FOB. With nothing heard to conclude at the lower levels during the week, the market continued at the last-reported $155-$165/mt FOB.
Brazil:
Recent sulfur business at Brazil was reported in a $173-$176/mt CFR range, falling from $194/mt CFR noted previously. Some players expected continued softening in the next round of business, predicting an imminent decline into the upper-$150s/mt or low-$160s/mt CFR.
Fourth-quarter contracts were quoted at $119-$138/mt CFR.
Vancouver:
Vancouver softened to a $150-$155/mt FOB range, players said, below $160-$170/mt FOB in the prior report.
Alberta:
Alberta sulfur netbacks softened to a wide (-)$25-$85/mt FOB during the week, off from (-)$25-$100/mt FOB the prior report. Molten tons contracted into the US set the range’s low, while prilled material selling through the Vancouver export market established the high.
West Coast:
West Coast solid sulfur cargoes were indicated even with Vancouver at $150-$155/mt FOB.
Sources reported fourth-quarter molten sulfur contracts at $75-$79/lt FOB, below $370-$385/lt FOB in the third quarter.
China:
Last-done spot business into China was reported in the $170-$175/mt CFR range, softening from $188-$190/mt CFR noted previously. Pricing rumored in the $150s/mt CFR during the week went unconfirmed on Jan. 5.
ADNOC:
Abu Dhabi National Oil Co. offers for January were noted at $160/mt FOB Ruwais, off $20/mt from $180/mt FOB in December.
Qatar:
January prill offers for tons loading from Qatar were heard at $155/mt FOB Ras Laffan, down $30/mt from December’s $185/mt FOB posting.
Kuwait:
Kuwait sulfur cargoes softened to $154/mt FOB for January, down $29/mt from $183/mt FOB reported for December.
Sulfuric Acid
US Gulf:
Price ideas on the US Gulf import sulfuric acid vessel market continued in a $100-$110/st FOB range.
Gulf Coast:
Sulfuric acid players noted 2023 Gulf Coast contracts landing in a general $130-$150/st DEL range.
Midwest:
Contracts for sulacid tons delivered by rail to locations in the Midwest reportedly fell in the $130-$150/st DEL range, even with the Gulf Coast.
West Coast:
Market players noted 2023 West Coast contracts roughly $10/st above the Midwest in a general $140-$160/st DEL range.
Brazil:
With nothing new heard on the Brazil sulfuric acid market, price ideas remained at $115-$125/mt CFR.
Ammonium Thiosulfate
Eastern Cornbelt:
Ammonium thiosulfate remained at $450-$475/st FOB in the Eastern Cornbelt, depending on location and time of shipment.
Western Cornbelt:
The ammonium thiosulfate market in the Western Cornbelt was unchanged at $400-$450/st FOB, with the low in Nebraska and the high in Iowa.
Northern Plains:
No current bids were confirmed for ammonium thiosulfate in the Northern Plains. The last business was pegged at $435-$455/st FOB in the region.
Eastern Canada:
The ammonium thiosulfate market was quoted in a tight range at C$649-$655/mt FOB in Eastern Canada, below last month’s C$655-$740/mt FOB.